A new error measure for forecasts of household-level, high resolution electrical energy consumption

As low carbon technologies become more pervasive, distribution network operators are looking to support the expected changes in the demands on the low voltage networks through the smarter control of storage devices. Accurate forecasts of demand at the single household-level, or of small aggregations of households, can improve the peak demand reduction brought about through such devices by helping to plan the appropriate charging and discharging cycles. However, before such methods can be developed, validation measures are required which can assess the accuracy and usefulness of forecasts of volatile and noisy household-level demand. In this paper we introduce a new forecast verification error measure that reduces the so called “double penalty” effect, incurred by forecasts whose features are displaced in space or time, compared to traditional point-wise metrics, such as Mean Absolute Error and p-norms in general. The measure that we propose is based on finding a restricted permutation of the original forecast that minimises the point wise error, according to a given metric. We illustrate the advantages of our error measure using half-hourly domestic household electrical energy usage data recorded by smart meters and discuss the effect of the permutation restriction.

Physiological, biochemical and transcriptional analysis of onion bulbs during storage

Abstract: During the transition from endo-dormancy to eco-dormancy and subsequent growth, the onion bulb undergoes the transition from sink organ to source, to sustain cell division in the meristematic tissue. The mechanisms controlling these processes are not fully understood. Here, a detailed analysis of whole onion bulb physiological, biochemical and transcriptional changes in response to sprouting is reported, enabling a better knowledge of the mechanisms regulating post-harvest onion sprout development. Biochemical and physiological analyses were conducted on different cultivars ('Wellington', 'Sherpa' and 'Red Baron') grown at different sites over 3 years, cured at different temperatures (20, 24 and 28 degrees C) and stored under different regimes (1, 3, 6 and 6 1 degrees C). In addition, the first onion oligonucleotide microarray was developed to determine differential gene expression in onion during curing and storage, so that transcriptional changes could support biochemical and physiological analyses. There were greater transcriptional differences between samples at harvest and before sprouting than between the samples taken before and after sprouting, with some significant changes occurring during the relatively short curing period. These changes are likely to represent the transition from endo-dormancy to sprout suppression, and suggest that endo-dormancy is a relatively short period ending just after curing. Principal component analysis of biochemical and physiological data identified the ratio of monosaccharides (fructose and glucose) to disaccharide (sucrose), along with the concentration of zeatin riboside, as important factors in discriminating between sprouting and pre-sprouting bulbs. These detailed analyses provide novel insights into key regulatory triggers for sprout dormancy release in onion bulbs and provide the potential for the development of biochemical or transcriptional markers for sprout initiation. Evidence presented herein also suggests there is no detrimental effect on bulb storage life and quality caused by curing at 20 degrees C, producing a considerable saving in energy and costs.

The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – part 1: energy and water fluxes

This manuscript describes the energy and water components of a new community land surface model called the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). This is developed from the Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme (MOSES). It can be used as a stand alone land surface model driven by observed forcing data, or coupled to an atmospheric global circulation model. The JULES model has been coupled to the Met Office Unified Model (UM) and as such provides a unique opportunity for the research community to contribute their research to improve both world-leading operational weather forecasting and climate change prediction systems. In addition JULES, and its forerunner MOSES, have been the basis for a number of very high-profile papers concerning the land-surface and climate over the last decade. JULES has a modular structure aligned to physical processes, providing the basis for a flexible modelling platform.

Energy exchange in a dense urban environment – part I: temporal variability of long-term observations in central London

Though anthropogenic impacts on boundary layer climates are expected to be large in dense urban areas, to date very few studies of energy flux observations are available. We report on 3.5 years of measurements gathered in central London, UK. Radiometer and eddy covariance observations at two adjacent sites, at different heights, were analysed at various temporal scales and with respect to meteorological conditions, such as cloud cover. Although the evaporative flux is generally small due to low moisture availability and a predominately impervious surface, the enhancement following rainfall usually lasts for 12–18 h. As both the latent and sensible heat fluxes are larger in the afternoon, they maintain a relatively consistent Bowen ratio throughout the middle of the day. Strong storage and anthropogenic heat fluxes sustain high and persistently positive sensible heat fluxes. At the monthly time scale, the urban surface often loses more energy by this turbulent heat flux than is gained from net all-wave radiation. Auxiliary anthropogenic heat flux information suggest human activities in the study area are sufficient to provide this energy.

BodyCloud: a SaaS approach for community body sensor networks

Body Sensor Networks (BSNs) have been recently introduced for the remote monitoring of human activities in a broad range of application domains, such as health care, emergency management, fitness and behaviour surveillance. BSNs can be deployed in a community of people and can generate large amounts of contextual data that require a scalable approach for storage, processing and analysis. Cloud computing can provide a flexible storage and processing infrastructure to perform both online and offline analysis of data streams generated in BSNs. This paper proposes BodyCloud, a SaaS approach for community BSNs that supports the development and deployment of Cloud-assisted BSN applications. BodyCloud is a multi-tier application-level architecture that integrates a Cloud computing platform and BSN data streams middleware. BodyCloud provides programming abstractions that allow the rapid development of community BSN applications. This work describes the general architecture of the proposed approach and presents a case study for the real-time monitoring and analysis of cardiac data streams of many individuals.

British container breeding mosquitoes: the impact of urbanisation and climate change on community composition and phenology

The proliferation of artificial container habitats in urban areas has benefitted urban adaptable mosquito species globally. In areas where mosquitoes transmit viruses and parasites, it can promote vector population productivity and fuel mosquito-borne disease outbreaks. In Britain, storage of water in garden water butts is increasing, potentially expanding mosquito larval habitats and influencing population dynamics and mosquito-human contact. Here we show that the community composition, abundance and phenology of mosquitoes breeding in experimental water butt containers were influenced by urbanisation. Mosquitoes in urban containers were less species-rich but present in significantly higher densities (100.4±21.3) per container than those in rural containers (77.7±15.1). Urban containers were dominated by Culex pipiens (a potential vector of West Nile Virus [WNV]) and appear to be increasingly exploited by Anopheles plumbeus (a human-biting potential WNV and malaria vector). Culex phenology was influenced by urban land use type, with peaks in larval abundances occurring earlier in urban than rural containers. Among other factors, this was associated with an urban heat island effect which raised urban air and water temperatures by 0.9°C and 1.2°C respectively. Further increases in domestic water storage, particularly in urban areas, in combination with climate changes will likely alter mosquito population dynamics in the UK.

Enrichment and stability: a phenomenological coupling of energy value and carrying capacity

Simple predator–prey models with a prey-dependent functional response predict that enrichment (increased carrying capacity) destabilizes community dynamics: this is the ‘paradox of enrichment’. However, the energy value of prey is very important in this context. The intraspecific chemical composition of prey species determines its energy value as a food for the potential predator. Theoretical and experimental studies establish that variable chemical composition of prey affects the predator–prey dynamics. Recently, experimental and theoretical approaches have been made to incorporate explicitly the stoichiometric heterogeneity of simple predator–prey systems. Following the results of the previous experimental and theoretical advances, in this article we propose a simple phenomenological formulation of the variation of energy value at increased level of carrying capacity. Results of our study demonstrate that coupling the parameters representing the phenomenological energy value and carrying capacity in a realistic way, may avoid destabilization of community dynamics following enrichment. Additionally, under such coupling the producer–grazer system persists for only an intermediate zone of production—a result consistent with recent studies. We suggest that, while addressing the issue of enrichment in a general predator–prey model, the phenomenological relationship that we propose here might be applicable to avoid Rosenzweig’s paradox.

Introducing "ecoputation": a universal systems design process

A universal systems design process is specified, tested in a case study and evaluated. It links English narratives to numbers using a categorical language framework with mathematical mappings taking the place of conjunctions and numbers. The framework is a ring of English narrative words between 1 (option) and 360 (capital); beyond 360 the ring cycles again to 1. English narratives are shown to correspond to the field of fractional numbers. The process can enable the development, presentation and communication of complex narrative policy information among communities of any scale, on a software implementation known as the "ecoputer". The information is more accessible and comprehensive than that in conventional decision support, because: (1) it is expressed in narrative language; and (2) the narratives are expressed as compounds of words within the framework. Hence option generation is made more effective than in conventional decision support processes including Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, Life Cycle Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.The case study is of a participatory workshop in UK bioenergy project objectives and criteria, at which attributes were elicited in environmental, economic and social systems. From the attributes, the framework was used to derive consequences at a range of levels of precision; these are compared with the project objectives and criteria as set out in the Case for Support. The design process is to be supported by a social information manipulation, storage and retrieval system for numeric and verbal narratives attached to the "ecoputer". The "ecoputer" will have an integrated verbal and numeric operating system. Novel design source code language will assist the development of narrative policy. The utility of the program, including in the transition to sustainable development and in applications at both community micro-scale and policy macro-scale, is discussed from public, stakeholder, corporate, Governmental and regulatory perspectives.

What is Carbon? Conceptualising carbon and capabilities in the context of community sequestration projects in the global South

Carbon has been described as a ‘surreal commodity’. Whilst carbon trading, storage, sequestration and emissions have become a part of the contemporary climate lexicon, how carbon is understood, valued and interpreted by actors responsible for implementing carbon sequestration projects is still unclear. In this review paper, we are concerned with how carbon has come to take on a range of meanings, and in particular, we appraise what is known about the situated meanings that people involved in delivering, and participating in, carbon sequestration projects in the global South assign to this complex element. Whilst there has been some reflection on the new meanings conferred on carbon via the neoliberal processes of marketisation, and how these processes interact with historical and contemporary narratives of environmental change, less is known about how these meanings are (re)produced and (re)interpreted locally. We review how carbon has been defined both as a chemical element and as a tradable, marketable commodity, and discuss the implications these global meanings might have for situated understandings, particularly linked to climate change narratives, amongst communities in the global South. We consider how the concept of carbon capabilities, alongside theoretical notions of networks, assemblages and local knowledges of the environment and nature, might be useful in beginning to understand how communities engage with abstract notions of carbon. We discuss the implications of specific values attributed to carbon, and therefore to different ecologies, for wider conceptualisations of how nature is valued, and climate is understood, and particularly how this may impact on community interactions with carbon sequestration projects. Knowing more about how people understand, value and know carbon allows policies to be better informed and practices more effectively targeted at engaging local populations meaningfully in carbon-related projects.

A comparative value of electricity storage within GB market mechanisms

This paper investigates the value of a generic storage system within two GB market mechanisms and one ancillary service provision: the wholesale power market, the Balancing Mechanism and Firm Frequency Response (FFR). Three models are evaluated under perfect foresight and fixed horizon which is subsequently extended to explore the impact of a longer foresight on market revenues. The results show that comparatively, the balancing mechanism represents the highest source of potential revenues followed by the wholesale power market and Firm Frequency Response respectively. Longer horizons show diminishing returns, with the 1 day horizon providing the vast majority of total revenues. However storage power capacity utilization benefits from such long horizons. These results could imply that short horizons are very effective in capturing revenues in both the wholesale market and balancing mechanism whereas sizing of a storage system should take into consideration horizon foresight and accuracy for greater benefit.

CO2 emission estimation in the urban environment: measurement of the CO2 storage term

Eddy covariance has been used in urban areas to evaluate the net exchange of CO2 between the surface and the atmosphere. Typically, only the vertical flux is measured at a height 2–3 times that of the local roughness elements; however, under conditions of relatively low instability, CO2 may accumulate in the airspace below the measurement height. This can result in inaccurate emissions estimates if the accumulated CO2 drains away or is flushed upwards during thermal expansion of the boundary layer. Some studies apply a single height storage correction; however, this requires the assumption that the response of the CO2 concentration profile to forcing is constant with height. Here a full seasonal cycle (7th June 2012 to 3rd June 2013) of single height CO2 storage data calculated from concentrations measured at 10 Hz by open path gas analyser are compared to a data set calculated from a concurrent switched vertical profile measured (2 Hz, closed path gas analyser) at 10 heights within and above a street canyon in central London. The assumption required for the former storage determination is shown to be invalid. For approximately regular street canyons at least one other measurement is required. Continuous measurements at fewer locations are shown to be preferable to a spatially dense, switched profile, as temporal interpolation is ineffective. The majority of the spectral energy of the CO2 storage time series was found to be between 0.001 and 0.2 Hz (500 and 5 s respectively); however, sampling frequencies of 2 Hz and below still result in significantly lower CO2 storage values. An empirical method of correcting CO2 storage values from under-sampled time series is proposed.

Local authorities as niche actors: the case of energy governance in the UK

This paper draws from work conducted under the NERC-funded project 'Understanding energy governance at local and community levels'(Project Reference: NE/H013598/1). This project was a 24 month study carried out in collaboration with the UK Energy Research Council which began in April 2010. The particular workpackage from which these interviews were drawn specifically explores the role of local authorities in emerging energy and environmental responsibilities, paying particular attention to current institutional structures and how external forces and actors influence local authorities on their decision making and practices. It is concluded that whilst the role of local authorities has been changing in response to energy and environmental ‘landscape’ issues, their influence on the design and implementation of energy policy in the UK will correspondingly remain as an emerging process for the foreseeable future, with the more progressive local authorities continuing to exert political, social/cultural and technological influence over ways of designing, articulating, and engaging with energy governance at the local level.

Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS): development and evaluation at two UK sites

The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is evaluated at two locations in the UK: a dense urban site in the centre of London and a residential suburban site in Swindon. Eddy covariance observations of the turbulent fluxes are used to assess model performance over a twoyear period (2011-2013). The distinct characteristics of the sites mean their surface energy exchanges differ considerably. The model suggests the largest differences can be attributed to surface cover (notably the proportion of vegetated versus impervious area) and the additional energy supplied by human activities. SUEWS performs better in summer than winter, and better at the suburban site than the dense urban site. One reason for this is the bias towards suburban summer field campaigns in observational data used to parameterise this (and other) model(s). The suitability of model parameters (such as albedo, energy use and water use) for the UK sites is considered and, where appropriate, alternative values are suggested. An alternative parameterisation for the surface conductance is implemented, which permits greater soil moisture deficits before evaporation is restricted at non-irrigated sites. Accounting for seasonal variation in the estimation of storage heat flux is necessary to obtain realistic wintertime fluxes.

Nutritional intervention programme among a Japanese-Brazilian community: procedures and results according to gender

Objective: To describe the results of a nutritional intervention programme among Japanese-Brazilians according to gender. Design: A non-controlled experimental study. Setting: The research included three points of clinical, nutritional and physical activity evaluation: at baseline (in 2005), after the first year and at the end of the second year (in 2007). The paired Student t test and multiple linear regression analysis were used to evaluate changes in the subjects` profile (clinical, nutritional and physical activity variables). Subjects: Japanese-Brazilians (n 575) of both genders, aged over 30 years. Results: We verified statistically significant reductions in body weight (0.9 kg), waist circumference (2.9 cm), blood pressure, fasting blood glucose (>3 mg/dl) and total cholesterol (>20 mg/dl) and its fractions, in both genders. We also found reductions in intake of energy (among men), protein (among women) and fat (both genders) and increases in intake of total fibre (among women) and carbohydrate (among men). Conclusions: The intervention programme indicated meaningful benefits for the intervention subjects, with changes in their habits that led to a `healthier` lifestyle positively impacting their nutritional and metabolic profile.

The energy and water balance of a Eucalyptus plantation in southeast Brazil

The eddy covariance method was used to measure energy and water balance of a plantation of Eucalyptus (grandis x urophylla) hybrids over a 2 year period. The average daily evaporation rates were 5.4 (+/- 2.0) mm day(-1) in summer, but fell to 1.2 (+/- 0.3) mm day(-1) in winter. In contrast, the sensible heat flux was relatively low in summer but dominated the energy balance in winter. Evaporation accounted for 80% and 26% of the available energy, in summer and winter respectively. The annual evaporation was 82% (1124 mm) and 96% (1235 mm) of the annual rainfall recorded during the first and second year, respectively. Daily average canopy and aerodynamic conductance to water vapour were in the summer 51.9 (+/- 38.4) mm s(-1) 84.1 (+/- 25.6) mm s(-1), respectively; and in the winter 6.0 (+/- 10.5) mm s(-1) and 111.6 (+/- 24.6) mm s(-1), respectively. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.