A compendium of modelling techniques

This Integration Insight provides a brief overview of the most popular modelling techniques used to analyse complex real-world problems, as well as some less popular but highly relevant techniques. The modelling methods are divided into three categories, with each encompassing a number of methods, as follows: 1) Qualitative Aggregate Models (Soft Systems Methodology, Concept Maps and Mind Mapping, Scenario Planning, Causal (Loop) Diagrams), 2) Quantitative Aggregate Models (Function fitting and Regression, Bayesian Nets, System of differential equations / Dynamical systems, System Dynamics, Evolutionary Algorithms) and 3) Individual Oriented Models (Cellular Automata, Microsimulation, Agent Based Models, Discrete Event Simulation, Social Network
Analysis). Each technique is broadly described with example uses, key attributes and reference material.

Revival: The Aesthetics of Revival Subcultures and Re-enactment Groups Explored Through Fashion Image-making

This research aims, through performance, fashion photography, video making and the theatrical devices that accompany such practice, to explore the style of a contemporary, largely male, subcultural collective. The common term that joins these loosely bound groups is revival as they appear driven by an impulse to simulate and re-enact the dress, rites and rituals of British and American subcultures from a perceived golden era. The similarities with re-enactment societies are also explored and exploited to the end of developing new style- based aesthetics in male fashion image-making formed around an elaborate re- enactment of Spartacus and the Third Servile Wars. Examined through comparative visuals (revivalists / re-enactors) a common thread is found in the wearing of leather as a metaphor for resistance, style and a pupa-like second skin. Subsequent findings of this research suggest that the cuirass of popular culture emerges as the motorcycle jacket of both the sword and sandal epic and the historical re-enactor. Addressing extremes in narcissistic dress and behaviour amongst certain individuals within these older male communities, this study also questions parts of established theory on subcultural development within the field of cultural studies and postulates on a metaphorical dandy gene. Citing two leading practitioners in the field of fashion photography the work of both Richard Prince and Bruce Weber is viewed through the lens of the subcultural aesthete and conclusions drawn as to their role as agents provocateurs in the development of the fashion image with a revival based narrative. In addition the often used term retro is examined, categorised and granted its own genre within fashion image- making and defined as being separate from the practice element of this research. Reflecting a multi-disciplinary approach that engages the researcher as Bricoleur and participant observer this research operates in the reflexive realm and uses simulation as a key method of enquiry. The practice-led outcome of this investigation takes the form of a final research exhibition that takes the form of a substantial installation of photography, video, clothing and textile prints. Key terms: dandy gene, historical re-enactment groups, internal theatre, narcissism, narrative image-making, reflexive practice, revival as theatre, subcultures,

Piñatex, the design development of a new sustainable material

This is a research project by practice, which firstly develops a new material invention derived from natural fibres extracted from waste pineapple leaves; secondly it articulates the contemporary designer’s role in facilitating sustainable solutions through: Insights from my own material invention, PiñatexTM, which integrates the materiality of design with the immateriality of concepts and values Developing a visual model of mapping I began with these questions: ‘What are the challenges in seeking to make a new and sustainable material from the waste products of pineapple agriculture in the Philippines?’ and ‘How can a design practice link elements of materiality (artifacts) with immaterial elements (value systems) in order to improve sustainable social and economic development?’ Significant influences have been the work of Papanek1 (2003), Hawken2 (1999) and Abouleish3 (2008) and in particular the ethical business model initiated by McDonough and Braungart in Cradle to Cradle®4 (2002). My own research project is inspired by the Cradle to Cradle® model. It proposes the development of a new material, PiñatexTM which is derived from natural fibres extracted from waste pineapple leaves and could be used in a wide variety of products that are currently fabricated in leather or petroleum-based materials. The methods have comprised: Contextual reviews; case studies (SEKEM, Cradle to Cradle® and Gawad Kalinga); practical experiments in the field of natural fibres, chemistry, product development, manufacturing and prototyping, leading to an invention and a theoretical model of mapping. In addition, collaboration has taken place across scientific, technological, social, ecological, academic and business fields. The outcome is a new material based on the synchronicity between the pineapple fibres, polymers, resins and coatings specially formulated. The invention of the new material that I developed as a central part of this research by practice has a patent in the national phase (PCT/GB 2011/000802) and is in the first stages of manufacturing, commercial testing and further design input (Summer 2014). The contribution to knowledge is firstly the material, PiñatexTM, which exhibits certain key qualities, namely environmentally non-toxic, biodegradable, income-generating potential and marketability. This is alongside its intrinsic qualities as a textile product: aesthetic potential, durability and stability, which will make it suitable for the accessories, interiors and furnishing markets. The theoretical mapping system Upstream and Downstream forms a secondary contribution.

Digital Debris of Internet Art: An Allegorical and Entropic Resistance to the Epistemology of Search

This Ph.D., by thesis, proposes a speculative lens to read Internet Art via the concept of digital debris. In order to do so, the research explores the idea of digital debris in Internet Art from 1993 to 2011 in a series of nine case studies. Here, digital debris are understood as words typed in search engines and which then disappear; bits of obsolete codes which are lingering on the Internet, abandoned website, broken links or pieces of ephemeral information circulating on the Internet and which are used as a material by practitioners. In this context, the thesis asks what are digital debris? The thesis argues that the digital debris of Internet Art represent an allegorical and entropic resistance to the what Art Historian David Joselit calls the Epistemology of Search. The ambition of the research is to develop a language in-between the agency of the artist and the autonomy of the algorithm, as a way of introducing Internet Art to a pluridisciplinary audience, hence the presence of the comparative studies unfolding throughout the thesis, between Internet Art and pionners in the recycling of waste in art, the use of instructions as a medium and the programming of poetry. While many anthropological and ethnographical studies are concerned with the material object of the computer as debris once it becomes obsolete, very few studies have analysed waste as discarded data. The research shifts the focus from an industrial production of digital debris (such as pieces of hardware) to obsolete pieces of information in art practice. The research demonstrates that illustrations of such considerations can be found, for instance, in Cory Arcangel’s work Data Diaries (2001) where QuickTime files are stolen, disassembled, and then re-used in new displays. The thesis also looks at Jodi’s approach in Jodi.org (1993) and Asdfg (1998), where websites and hyperlinks are detourned, deconstructed, and presented in abstract collages that reveals the architecture of the Internet. The research starts in a typological manner and classifies the pieces of Internet Art according to the structure at play in the work. Indeed if some online works dealing with discarded documents offer a self-contained and closed system, others nurture the idea of openness and unpredictability. The thesis foregrounds the ideas generated through the artworks and interprets how those latter are visually constructed and displayed. Not only does the research questions the status of digital debris once they are incorporated into art practice but it also examine the method according to which they are retrieved, manipulated and displayed to submit that digital debris of Internet Art are the result of both semantic and automated processes, rendering them both an object of discourse and a technical reality. Finally, in order to frame the serendipity and process-based nature of the digital debris, the Ph.D. concludes that digital debris are entropic . In other words that they are items of language to-be, paradoxically locked in a constant state of realisation.

The Structure of Design Processes: ideal and reality in Bruce Archer’s 1968 doctoral thesis

The paper centres on a single document, the 1968 doctoral thesis of L Bruce Archer. It traces the author’s earlier publications and the sources that informed and inspired his thinking, as a way of understanding the trajectory of his ideas and the motivations for his work at the Royal College of Art from 1962. Analysis of the thesis suggests that Archer’s ambition for a rigorous ‘science of design’ inspired by algorithmic approaches was increasingly threatened with disruption by his experience of large, complex design projects. His attempts to deal with this problem are shown to involve a particular interpretation of cybernetics. The paper ends with Archer’s own retrospective view and a brief account of his dramatically changed opinions. Archer is located as both a theorist and someone intensely interested in the commercial world of industrial design.

Mid-Century Molecular: The Material Culture of X-ray Crystallographic Visualisation across Postwar British Science and Industrial Design

This thesis investigates the use and significance of X-ray crystallographic visualisations of molecular structures in postwar British material culture across scientific practice and industrial design. It is based on research into artefacts from three areas: X-ray crystallographers’ postwar practices of visualising molecular structures using models and diagrams; the Festival Pattern Group scheme for the 1951 Festival of Britain, in which crystallographic visualisations formed the aesthetic basis of patterns for domestic objects; and postwar furnishings with a ‘ball-and-rod’ form and construction reminiscent of those of molecular models. A key component of the project is methodological. The research brings together subjects, themes and questions traditionally covered separately by two disciplines, the history of design and history of science. This focus necessitated developing an interdisciplinary set of methods, which results in the reassessment of disciplinary borders and productive cross-disciplinary methodological applications. This thesis also identifies new territory for shared methods: it employs network models to examine cross-disciplinary interaction between practitioners in crystallography and design, and a biographical approach to designed objects that over time became mediators of historical narratives about science. Artefact-based, archival and oral interviewing methods illuminate the production, use and circulation of the objects examined in this research. This interdisciplinary approach underpins the generation of new historical narratives in this thesis. It revises existing histories of the cultural transmissions between X-ray crystallography and the production and reception of designed objects in postwar Britain. I argue that these transmissions were more complex than has been acknowledged by historians: they were contingent upon postwar scientific and design practices, material conditions in postwar Britain and the dynamics of historical memory, both scholarly and popular. This thesis comprises four chapters. Chapter one explores X-ray crystallographers’ visualisation practices, conceived here as a form of craft. Chapter two builds on this, demonstrating that the Festival Pattern Group witnesses the encounter between crystallographic practice, design practice and aesthetic ideologies operating within social networks associated with postwar modernisms. Chapters three and four focus on ball-and-rod furnishings in postwar and present-day Britain, respectively. I contend that strong relationships between these designed objects and crystallographic visualisations, for example the appellation ‘atomic design’, have been largely realised through historical narratives active today in the consumption of ‘retro’ and ‘mid-century modern’ artefacts. The attention to contemporary historical narratives necessitates this dual historical focus: the research is rooted in the period from the end of the Second World War until the early 1960s, but extends to the history of now. This thesis responds to the need for practical research on methods for studying cross-disciplinary interactions and their histories. It reveals the effects of submitting historical subjects that are situated on disciplinary boundaries to interdisciplinary interpretation. Old models, such as that of unidirectional ‘influence’, subside and the resulting picture is a refracted one: this study demonstrates that the material form and meaning of crystallographic visualisations, within scientific practice and across their use and echoes in designed objects, are multiple and contingent.

Intimate Ecologies: An exploration of the languages of contemporary exhibitions and making in museums and related cultural spaces in the UK

Intimate Ecologies considers the practice of exhibition-making over the past decade in formal museum and gallery spaces and its relationship to creating a concept of craft in contemporary Britain. Different forms of expression found in traditions of still life painting, film and moving image, poetic text and performance are examined to highlight the complex layers of language at play in exhibitions and within a concept of craft. The thesis presents arguments for understanding the value of embodied material knowledge to aesthetic experience in exhibitions, across a spectrum of human expression. These are supported by reference to exhibition case studies, critical and theoretical works from fields including social anthropology, architecture, art and design history and literary criticism and a range of individual, original works of art. Intimate Ecologies concludes that the museum exhibition, as a creative medium for understanding objects, becomes enriched by close study of material practice, and embodied knowledge that draws on a concept of craft. In turn a concept of craft is refreshed by the makers’ participation in shifting patterns of exhibition-making in cultural spaces that allow the layers of language embedded in complex objects to be experienced from different perspectives. Both art-making and the experience of objects are intimate, and infinitely varied: a vibrant ecology of exhibition-making gives space to this diversity.

Understanding the Needs of People with Dementia and Family Carers

This is the first in a short series that presents case study examples of the positive work achieved by trusts who participated in the Royal College of Nursing's development programme to improve dementia care in acute hospitals. When a person with dementia is in hospital, poor understanding of individual needs and preferences can contribute to a lack of person-centred care. Similarly, the needs of family carers can often be overlooked and staff do not always appreciate these needs at such a stressful time. This article illustrates how three NHS trusts have addressed these issues. To help staff get to know patients with dementia, Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust has implemented a patient passport. Similarly, The Shrewsbury and Telford Hospital NHS Trust has implemented a carer passport that overcomes the restrictions imposed by hospital visiting hours. Royal Devon and Exeter NHS Foundation Trust also focused on carers, holding a workshop to elicit feedback on what was important to them. This was a useful means of engaging with carers and helped staff to realise that even simple changes can have a significant effect.

A Benefit-Risk Assessment Framework for Development of Clinical Guidelines in Diagnostic Radiology

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2015-12

In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, denosumab significantly improved trabecular bone score (TBS), an index of trabecular microarchitecture

Background/Purpose: The trabecular bone score (TBS), a novel graylevel texture index determined from lumbar spine DXA scans, correlates with 3D parameters of trabecular bone microarchitecture known to predict fracture. TBS may enhance the identification of patients at increased risk for vertebral fracture independently of bone mineral density (BMD) (Boutroy JBMR 2010; Hans JBMR 2011). Denosumab treatment for 36 months decreased bone turnover, increased BMD, and reduced new vertebral fractures in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis (Cummings NEJM 2009). We explored the effect of denosumab on TBS over 36 months and evaluated the association between TBS and lumbar spine BMD in women who had DXA scans obtained from eligible scanners for TBS evaluation in FREEDOM. Methods: FREEDOM was a 3-year, randomized, double-blind trial that enrolled postmenopausal women with a lumbar spine or total hip DXA T-score __2.5, but not __4.0 at both sites. Women received placebo or 60 mg denosumab every 6 months. A subset of women in FREEDOM participated in a DXA substudy where lumbar spine DXA scans were obtained at baseline and months 1, 6, 12, 24, and 36. We retrospectively applied, in a blinded-to-treatment manner, a novel software program (TBS iNsightR v1.9, Med-Imaps, Pessac, France) to the standard lumbar spine DXA scans obtained in these women to determine their TBS indices at baseline and months 12, 24, and 36. From previous studies, a TBS _1.35 is considered as normal microarchitecture, a TBS between 1.35 and _1.20 as partially deteriorated, and 1.20 reflects degraded microarchitecture. Results: There were 285 women (128 placebo, 157 denosumab) with a TBS value at baseline and _1 post-baseline visit. Their mean age was 73, their mean lumbar spine BMD T-score was _2.79, and their mean lumbar spine TBS was 1.20. In addition to the robust gains in DXA lumbar spine BMD observed with denosumab (9.8% at month 36), there were consistent, progressive, and significant increases in TBS compared with placebo and baseline (Table & Figure). BMD explained a very small fraction of the variance in TBS at baseline (r2_0.07). In addition, the variance in the TBS change was largely unrelated to BMD change, whether expressed in absolute or percentage changes, regardless of treatment, throughout the study (all r2_0.06); indicating that TBS provides distinct information, independently of BMD. Conclusion: In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, denosumab significantly improved TBS, an index of lumbar spine trabecular microarchitecture, independently of BMD.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of heart failure events: an individual participant data analysis from 6 prospective cohorts.

BACKGROUND: American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines for the diagnosis and management of heart failure recommend investigating exacerbating conditions such as thyroid dysfunction, but without specifying the impact of different thyroid-stimulation hormone (TSH) levels. Limited prospective data exist on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and heart failure events. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a pooled analysis of individual participant data using all available prospective cohorts with thyroid function tests and subsequent follow-up of heart failure events. Individual data on 25 390 participants with 216 248 person-years of follow-up were supplied from 6 prospective cohorts in the United States and Europe. Euthyroidism was defined as TSH of 0.45 to 4.49 mIU/L, subclinical hypothyroidism as TSH of 4.5 to 19.9 mIU/L, and subclinical hyperthyroidism as TSH <0.45 mIU/L, the last two with normal free thyroxine levels. Among 25 390 participants, 2068 (8.1%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 648 (2.6%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, risks of heart failure events were increased with both higher and lower TSH levels (P for quadratic pattern <0.01); the hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.26) for TSH of 4.5 to 6.9 mIU/L, 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-3.23) for TSH of 7.0 to 9.9 mIU/L, 1.86 (95% confidence interval, 1.27-2.72) for TSH of 10.0 to 19.9 mIU/L (P for trend <0.01) and 1.31 (95% confidence interval, 0.88-1.95) for TSH of 0.10 to 0.44 mIU/L and 1.94 (95% confidence interval, 1.01-3.72) for TSH <0.10 mIU/L (P for trend=0.047). Risks remained similar after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSION: Risks of heart failure events were increased with both higher and lower TSH levels, particularly for TSH ≥10 and <0.10 mIU/L.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction, cardiac function, and the risk of heart failure. The Cardiovascular Health study.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to determine whether subclinical thyroid dysfunction was associated with incident heart failure (HF) and echocardiogram abnormalities. BACKGROUND: Subclinical hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism have been associated with cardiac dysfunction. However, long-term data on the risk of HF are limited. METHODS: We studied 3,044 adults>or=65 years of age who initially were free of HF in the Cardiovascular Health Study. We compared adjudicated HF events over a mean 12-year follow-up and changes in cardiac function over the course of 5 years among euthyroid participants, those with subclinical hypothyroidism (subdivided by thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH] levels: 4.5 to 9.9, >or=10.0 mU/l), and those with subclinical hyperthyroidism. RESULTS: Over the course of 12 years, 736 participants developed HF events. Participants with TSH>or=10.0 mU/l had a greater incidence of HF compared with euthyroid participants (41.7 vs. 22.9 per 1,000 person years, p=0.01; adjusted hazard ratio: 1.88; 95% confidence interval: 1.05 to 3.34). Baseline peak E velocity, which is an echocardiographic measurement of diastolic function associated with incident HF in the CHS cohort, was greater in those patients with TSH>or=10.0 mU/l compared with euthyroid participants (0.80 m/s vs. 0.72 m/s, p=0.002). Over the course of 5 years, left ventricular mass increased among those with TSH>or=10.0 mU/l, but other echocardiographic measurements were unchanged. Those patients with TSH 4.5 to 9.9 mU/l or with subclinical hyperthyroidism had no increase in risk of HF. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with euthyroid older adults, those adults with TSH>or=10.0 mU/l have a moderately increased risk of HF and alterations in cardiac function but not older adults with TSH<10.0 mU/l. Clinical trials should assess whether the risk of HF might be ameliorated by thyroxine replacement in individuals with TSH>or=10.0 mU/l.

Registered nurses' perceptions of factors impacting on their continuing education /

This qualitative study examined the effects of hospital restructuring on a group of nurses at a community hospital. Eleven nurses were asked questions in order to gain insight into their experience in this situation. Ten of these participants were female, and one was male. The intent was to gather information about how restructuring has affected their lives, including, their motivational factors and barriers to participation in continuing education, and their descriptions of their workplace environment. Audiotaped interviews were conducted on two occasions to obtain this data. Emergent themes included the nurses' comments about continuing education, motivational factors, barriers that included geography and time, reactions of co-workers, restructuring, the College of Nurses' Quality Assurance Program including peer feedback, and performance appraisals. The literature review compares the barriers and motivational factors to the previous research findings. Thus, this study gave voice to the experience of this group of nurses, working in a healthcare setting that is involved in restructuring. This information is important to the healthcare system, since many areas are involved in restructuring. The whole process, if it is to be successful, depends on the frontline workers, namely the nurses. Thus, if there is anything to be learned from this group of people, that could be used to improve this progression, everyone would benefit from this information, were it to be implemented. Everyone is a stakeholder in the quality of healthcare in our province. The frontline workers are the ones that hold the vantage point to be able to provide suggestions for the changes needed to successful. These nurses are not just motivated by work issues however, and educating them and motivating them will also improve the care provided through increased knowledge and enhanced self-esteem.