Adolescence and parental history of alcoholism: insights from the sleep EEG

BACKGROUND Disrupted sleep is a common complaint of individuals with alcohol use disorder and in abstinent alcoholics. Furthermore, among recovering alcoholics, poor sleep predicts relapse to drinking. Whether disrupted sleep in these populations results from prolonged alcohol use or precedes the onset of drinking is not known. The aim of this study was to examine the sleep electroencephalogram (EEG) in alcohol-naïve, parental history positive (PH+), and negative (PH-) boys and girls. METHODS All-night sleep EEG recordings in 2 longitudinal cohorts (child and teen) followed at 1.5 to 3 year intervals were analyzed. The child and teen participants were 9/10 and 15/16 years old at the initial assessment, respectively. Parental history status was classified by Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) criteria applied to structured interviews (DIS-IV) resulting in 14 PH- and 10 PH+ children and 14 PH- and 10 PH+ teens. Sleep data were visually scored in 30-second epochs using standard criteria. Power spectra were calculated for EEG derivations C3/A2, C4/A1, O2/A1, O1/A2 for nonrapid eye movement (NREM) and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep. RESULTS We found no difference between PH+ and PH- individuals in either cohort for any visually scored sleep stage variable. Spectral power declined in both cohorts across assessments for NREM and REM sleep in all derivations and across frequencies independent of parental history status. With regard to parental history, NREM sleep EEG power was lower for the delta band in PH+ teens at both assessments for the central derivations. Furthermore, power in the sigma band for the right occipital derivation in both NREM and REM sleep was lower in PH+ children only at the initial assessment. CONCLUSIONS We found no gross signs of sleep disruption as a function of parental history. Modest differences in spectral EEG power between PH+ and PH- children and teens indicate that a marker of parental alcohol history may be detectable in teens at risk for problem drinking.

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol, coronary artery disease, and cardiovascular mortality.

AIMS High-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol is a strong predictor of cardiovascular mortality. This work aimed to investigate whether the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) impacts on its predictive value. METHODS AND RESULTS We studied 3141 participants (2191 males, 950 females) of the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular health (LURIC) study. They had a mean ± standard deviation age of 62.6 ± 10.6 years, body mass index of 27.5 ± 4.1 kg/m², and HDL cholesterol of 38.9 ± 10.8 mg/dL. The cohort consisted of 699 people without CAD, 1515 patients with stable CAD, and 927 patients with unstable CAD. The participants were prospectively followed for cardiovascular mortality over a median (inter-quartile range) period of 9.9 (8.7-10.7) years. A total of 590 participants died from cardiovascular diseases. High-density lipoprotein cholesterol by tertiles was inversely related to cardiovascular mortality in the entire cohort (P = 0.009). There was significant interaction between HDL cholesterol and CAD in predicting the outcome (P = 0.007). In stratified analyses, HDL cholesterol was strongly associated with cardiovascular mortality in people without CAD [3rd vs. 1st tertile: HR (95% CI) = 0.37 (0.18-0.74), P = 0.005], but not in patients with stable [3rd vs. 1st tertile: HR (95% CI) = 0.81 (0.61-1.09), P = 0.159] and unstable [3rd vs. 1st tertile: HR (95% CI) = 0.91 (0.59-1.41), P = 0.675] CAD. These results were replicated by analyses in 3413 participants of the AtheroGene cohort and 5738 participants of the ESTHER cohort, and by a meta-analysis comprising all three cohorts. CONCLUSION The inverse relationship of HDL cholesterol with cardiovascular mortality is weakened in patients with CAD. The usefulness of considering HDL cholesterol for cardiovascular risk stratification seems limited in such patients.

The impact of antioxidant supplements and endurance exercise on genes of the carbohydrate and lipid metabolism in skeletal muscle of mice

To ascertain whether reactive oxygen species (ROS) contribute to training-induced adaptation of skeletal muscle, we administered ROS-scavenging antioxidants (AOX; 140 mg/l of ascorbic acid, 12 mg/l of coenzyme Q10 and 1% N-acetyl-cysteine) via drinking water to 16 C57BL/6 mice. Sixteen other mice received unadulterated tap water (CON). One cohort of both groups (CON(EXE) and AOX(EXE) ) was subjected to treadmill exercise for 4 weeks (16-26 m/min, incline of 5°-10°). The other two cohorts (CON(SED) and AOX(SED) ) remained sedentary. In skeletal muscles of the AOX(EXE) mice, GSSG and the expression levels of SOD-1 and PRDX-6 were significantly lower than those in the CON(EXE) mice after training, suggesting disturbance of ROS levels. The peak power related to the body weight and citrate synthase activity was not significantly influenced in mice receiving AOX. Supplementation with AOX significantly altered the mRNA levels of the exercise-sensitive genes HK-II, GLUT-4 and SREBF-1c and the regulator gene PGC-1alpha but not G6PDH, glycogenin, FABP-3, MCAD and CD36 in skeletal muscle. Although the administration of AOX during endurance exercise alters the expression of particular genes of the ROS metabolism, it does not influence peak power or generally shift the metabolism, but it modulates the expression of specific genes of the carbohydrate and lipid metabolism and PGC-1alpha within murine skeletal muscle.

Health control beliefs in old age - relationship with subjective and objective health and health behavior

The main purpose of this paper is to explore health control beliefs (internality, powerful others, chance) in different age cohorts of elderly people and to examine the relationship between health control beliefs and objective and subjective health, and health behaviour. This contribution shows data from an interdisciplinary longitudinal ageing study: (a) a descriptive analysis of age- and time-correlated changes in health control beliefs of different cohorts of elderly people by taking into account gender as a differential aspect; (b) group comparisons between objectively and subjectively healthy or sick people and their health control beliefs and health relevant behaviour. Participants are 442 community elderly, 309 men, 133 women, aged 65± 94 years (mean age: 74.95 years). Our data demonstrate the dominance of chance control beliefs over internality and powerful others in all age cohorts. It can be concluded that internal control remains stable well into old age, whereas a signi® cant age-correlated increase of externality can be observed. Our results show the signi® cant relationship of subjective health self-evaluations with health control beliefs and health behaviour which is not the case for objective health parameters. Strong gender effects are found for internality and social externality: women have signi® cantly lower internality and powerful others scores than men.

Socioeconomic, Temporal and Regional Variation in Body Mass Index among 188,537 Swiss Male Conscripts Born between 1986 and 1992

BACKGROUND Rising levels of overweight and obesity are important public-health concerns worldwide. The purpose of this study is to elucidate their prevalence and trends in Switzerland by analyzing variations in Body Mass Index (BMI) of Swiss conscripts. METHODS The conscription records were provided by the Swiss Army. This study focussed on conscripts 18.5-20.5 years of age from the seven one-year birth cohorts spanning the period 1986-1992. BMI across professional status, area-based socioeconomic position (abSEP), urbanicity and regions was analyzed. Two piecewise quantile regression models with linear splines for three birth-cohort groups were used to examine the association of median BMI with explanatory variables and to determine the extent to which BMI has varied over time. RESULTS The study population consisted of 188,537 individuals. Median BMI was 22.51 kg/m2 (22.45-22.57 95% confidence interval (CI)). BMI was lower among conscripts of high professional status (-0.46 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.50, -0.42, compared with low), living in areas of high abSEP (-0.11 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.16, -0.07 compared to medium) and from urban communities (-0.07 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.11, -0.03, compared with peri-urban). Comparing with Midland, median BMI was highest in the North-West (0.25 kg/m2; 95% CI: 0.19-0.30) and Central regions (0.11 kg/m2; 95% CI: 0.05-0.16) and lowest in the East (-0.19 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.24, -0.14) and Lake Geneva regions (-0.15 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.20, -0.09). Trajectories of regional BMI growth varied across birth cohorts, with median BMI remaining high in the Central and North-West regions, whereas stabilization and in some cases a decline were observed elsewhere. CONCLUSIONS BMI of Swiss conscripts is associated with individual and abSEP and urbanicity. Results show regional variation in the levels and temporal trajectories of BMI growth and signal their possible slowdown among recent birth cohorts.

Reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome and cervical artery dissection in 20 patients

OBJECTIVES To describe clinical-radiologic characteristics in a prospective series of patients having both confirmed reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome (RCVS) and cervical artery dissection (CeAD). METHODS From January 2004 to December 2011, from our prospective cohorts of RCVS and CeAD, we studied patients with both conditions. RESULTS Of 173 RCVS cases and 285 CeAD cases, 20 patients (18 women, 2 men; mean age 41 years) had both RCVS and CeAD. Main associated conditions were migraine (12/20) and postpartum (5/18). Clinical features included severe headache in all patients, neck pain in 15, focal neurologic deficit in 9, and seizures in 4. Pain was the only symptom in 10 patients. All patients had multifocal cerebral vasoconstriction. There were brain lesions in 12 patients, cortical subarachnoid hemorrhage in 11, posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome in 4, intracerebral hemorrhage in 3, and infarcts in 4. CeAD involved one artery in 13 patients and multiple arteries in 7. CeAD mostly affected vertebral arteries (25 of 30 CeAD). Only one vertebral CeAD was associated with a related symptomatic infarct. At 3 months, 18 patients had fully recovered, all patients showed reversal of cerebral vasoconstriction, and 21 dissected arteries had normalized, whereas 9 arteries showed residual stenosis (7) and/or aneurysm (3). CONCLUSION The association of RCVS and CeAD was found in 12% of our patients with RCVS and 7% of our patients with CeAD. Underlying mechanisms are unknown. In practice, our results point to the need for a systematic study of both cervical and intracranial arteries in the 2 conditions.

Comparative genetic analyses point to HCP5 as susceptibility locus for HCV-associated hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recently, genetic variations in MICA (lead single nucleotide polymorphism [SNP] rs2596542) were identified by a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to be associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Japanese patients. In the present study, we sought to determine whether this SNP is predictive of HCC development in the Caucasian population as well. METHODS: An extended region around rs2596542 was genotyped in 1924 HCV-infected patients from the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study (SCCS). Pair-wise correlation between key SNPs was calculated both in the Japanese and European populations (HapMap3: CEU and JPT). RESULTS: To our surprise, the minor allele A of rs2596542 in proximity of MICA appeared to have a protective impact on HCC development in Caucasians, which represents an inverse association as compared to the one observed in the Japanese population. Detailed fine-mapping analyses revealed a new SNP in HCP5 (rs2244546) upstream of MICA as strong predictor of HCV-related HCC in the SCCS (univariable p=0.027; multivariable p=0.0002, odds ratio=3.96, 95% confidence interval=1.90-8.27). This newly identified SNP had a similarly directed effect on HCC in both Caucasian and Japanese populations, suggesting that rs2244546 may better tag a putative true variant than the originally identified SNPs. CONCLUSIONS: Our data confirms the MICA/HCP5 region as susceptibility locus for HCV-related HCC and identifies rs2244546 in HCP5 as a novel tagging SNP. In addition, our data exemplify the need for conducting meta-analyses of cohorts of different ethnicities in order to fine map GWAS signals.

Treatment of lower extremity telangiectasias in women by foam sclerotherapy vs. Nd:YAG laser: a prospective, comparative, randomized, open-label trial.

BACKGROUND Telangiectasias of the lower extremities are very common. There are no blinded, randomized, controlled clinical trials comparing laser modalities with the gold standard sclerotherapy, while the few available studies encompass small patients cohorts. OBJECTIVE This prospective, randomized, open-label trial compares the efficacy of sclerotherapy with polidocanol vs. long-pulsed neodymium-doped yttrium aluminium garnet (Nd:YAG) laser in the treatment of leg telangiectasias. PATIENTS AND METHODS Fifty-six female patients with primary leg telangiectasias and reticular veins (C1A or S Ep AS 1 PN ) were included in the study. One leg was randomly assigned to get treatment with the multiple synchronized long-pulsed Nd:YAG laser, while the other received foam sclerotherapy with polidocanol 0.5%. The patients were treated in two sessions at intervals of 6 weeks. The patients were evaluated by the handling physician after 6 weeks and 6 months. Two investigators assessed blindly at the end of the study the photographs for clearing of the vessels using a six-point scale from 1 (no change) to 6 (100% cleared). Patients reported about pain sensation and outcome satisfaction. RESULTS According to the handling dermatologist, at the last follow-up, there was an improvement of 30-40% with a median of 3 (IQR 2) and a good improvement of 50-70% with a median of 4 (IQR 2) after laser treatment and sclerotherapy respectively. In contrast, according to the blinded investigators, there was a median of 5 (IQR 1) with a very good improvement of >70% after both therapies. Improvement was achieved more quickly by sclerotherapy, although at the last follow-up visit there was no difference in clearance between the two groups as assessed by the blinded experts (P-value 0.84). The degree of patient's satisfaction was very good and similar with both therapeutic approaches. There was a significant difference (P-value 0.003) regarding pain perception between the types of therapy. Laser was felt more painful than sclerotherapy. CONCLUSION Telangiectasias of the lower extremities can be successfully treated with either synchronized long-pulsed Nd:YAG laser or sclerotherapy. The 1064-nm long-pulsed Nd:YAG laser is associated with more pain and is suitable especially in case of needle phobia, allergy to sclerosants and in presence of small veins with telangiectatic matting, while sclerotherapy can also treat the feeder veins.

A novel clinical scoring system for outcome prediction in dogs with acute kidney injury managed by hemodialysis.

BACKGROUND No reliable tool to predict outcome of acute kidney injury (AKI) exists. HYPOTHESIS A statistically derived scoring system can accurately predict outcome in dogs with AKI managed with hemodialysis. ANIMALS One hundred and eighty-two client-owned dogs with AKI. METHODS Logistic regression analyses were performed initially on clinical variables available on the 1st day of hospitalization for relevance to outcome. Variables with P< or = .1 were considered for further analyses. Continuous variables outside the reference range were divided into quartiles to yield quartile-specific odds ratios (ORs) for survival. Models were developed by incorporating weighting factors assigned to each quartile based on the OR, using either the integer value of the OR (Model A) or the exact OR (Models B or C, when the etiology was known). A predictive score for each model was calculated for each dog by summing all weighting factors. In Model D, actual values for continuous variables were used in a logistic regression model. Receiver-operating curve analyses were performed to assess sensitivities, specificities, and optimal cutoff points for all models. RESULTS Higher scores were associated with decreased probability of survival (P < .001). Models A, B, C, and D correctly classified outcomes in 81, 83, 87, and 76% of cases, respectively, and optimal sensitivities/specificities were 77/85, 81/85, 83/90 and 92/61%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE The models allowed outcome prediction that corresponded with actual outcome in our cohort. However, each model should be validated further in independent cohorts. The models may also be useful to assess AKI severity.

Familial occurrence and heritable connective tissue disorders in cervical artery dissection

OBJECTIVE In a large series of patients with cervical artery dissection (CeAD), a major cause of ischemic stroke in young and middle-aged adults, we aimed to examine frequencies and correlates of family history of CeAD and of inherited connective tissue disorders. METHODS We combined data from 2 large international multicenter cohorts of consecutive patients with CeAD in 23 neurologic departments participating in the CADISP-plus consortium, following a standardized protocol. Frequency of reported family history of CeAD and of inherited connective tissue disorders was assessed. Putative risk factors, baseline features, and 3-month outcome were compared between groups. RESULTS Among 1,934 consecutive patients with CeAD, 20 patients (1.0%, 95% confidence interval: 0.6%-1.5%) from 17 families (0.9%, 0.5%-1.3%) had a family history of CeAD. Family history of CeAD was significantly more frequent in patients with carotid location of the dissection and elevated cholesterol levels. Two patients without a family history of CeAD had vascular Ehlers-Danlos syndrome with a mutation in COL3A1. This diagnosis was suspected in 2 additional patients, but COL3A1 sequencing was negative. Two patients were diagnosed with classic and hypermobile Ehlers-Danlos syndrome, one patient with Marfan syndrome, and one with osteogenesis imperfecta, based on clinical criteria only. CONCLUSIONS In this largest series of patients with CeAD to date, family history of symptomatic CeAD was rare and inherited connective tissue disorders seemed exceptional. This finding supports the notion that CeAD is a multifactorial disease in the vast majority of cases.

Do Increasing Rates of Loss to Follow-up in Antiretroviral Treatment Programs Imply Deteriorating Patient Retention?

In several studies of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for persons with human immunodeficiency virus infection, investigators have reported that there has been a higher rate of loss to follow-up (LTFU) among patients initiating ART in recent years than among patients who initiated ART during earlier time periods. This finding is frequently interpreted as reflecting deterioration of patient retention in the face of increasing patient loads. However, in this paper we demonstrate by simulation that transient gaps in follow-up could lead to bias when standard survival analysis techniques are applied. We created a simulated cohort of patients with different dates of ART initiation. Rates of ART interruption, ART resumption, and mortality were assumed to remain constant over time, but when we applied a standard definition of LTFU, the simulated probability of being classified LTFU at a particular ART duration was substantially higher in recently enrolled cohorts. This suggests that much of the apparent trend towards increased LTFU may be attributed to bias caused by transient interruptions in care. Alternative statistical techniques need to be used when analyzing predictors of LTFU-for example, using "prospective" definitions of LTFU in place of "retrospective" definitions. Similar considerations may apply when analyzing predictors of LTFU from treatment programs for other chronic diseases.

Tumour genomic and microenvironmental heterogeneity for integrated prediction of 5-year biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND Clinical prognostic groupings for localised prostate cancers are imprecise, with 30-50% of patients recurring after image-guided radiotherapy or radical prostatectomy. We aimed to test combined genomic and microenvironmental indices in prostate cancer to improve risk stratification and complement clinical prognostic factors. METHODS We used DNA-based indices alone or in combination with intra-prostatic hypoxia measurements to develop four prognostic indices in 126 low-risk to intermediate-risk patients (Toronto cohort) who will receive image-guided radiotherapy. We validated these indices in two independent cohorts of 154 (Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center cohort [MSKCC] cohort) and 117 (Cambridge cohort) radical prostatectomy specimens from low-risk to high-risk patients. We applied unsupervised and supervised machine learning techniques to the copy-number profiles of 126 pre-image-guided radiotherapy diagnostic biopsies to develop prognostic signatures. Our primary endpoint was the development of a set of prognostic measures capable of stratifying patients for risk of biochemical relapse 5 years after primary treatment. FINDINGS Biochemical relapse was associated with indices of tumour hypoxia, genomic instability, and genomic subtypes based on multivariate analyses. We identified four genomic subtypes for prostate cancer, which had different 5-year biochemical relapse-free survival. Genomic instability is prognostic for relapse in both image-guided radiotherapy (multivariate analysis hazard ratio [HR] 4·5 [95% CI 2·1-9·8]; p=0·00013; area under the receiver operator curve [AUC] 0·70 [95% CI 0·65-0·76]) and radical prostatectomy (4·0 [1·6-9·7]; p=0·0024; AUC 0·57 [0·52-0·61]) patients with prostate cancer, and its effect is magnified by intratumoral hypoxia (3·8 [1·2-12]; p=0·019; AUC 0·67 [0·61-0·73]). A novel 100-loci DNA signature accurately classified treatment outcome in the MSKCC low-risk to intermediate-risk cohort (multivariate analysis HR 6·1 [95% CI 2·0-19]; p=0·0015; AUC 0·74 [95% CI 0·65-0·83]). In the independent MSKCC and Cambridge cohorts, this signature identified low-risk to high-risk patients who were most likely to fail treatment within 18 months (combined cohorts multivariate analysis HR 2·9 [95% CI 1·4-6·0]; p=0·0039; AUC 0·68 [95% CI 0·63-0·73]), and was better at predicting biochemical relapse than 23 previously published RNA signatures. INTERPRETATION This is the first study of cancer outcome to integrate DNA-based and microenvironment-based failure indices to predict patient outcome. Patients exhibiting these aggressive features after biopsy should be entered into treatment intensification trials. FUNDING Movember Foundation, Prostate Cancer Canada, Ontario Institute for Cancer Research, Canadian Institute for Health Research, NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, The University of Cambridge, Cancer Research UK, Cambridge Cancer Charity, Prostate Cancer UK, Hutchison Whampoa Limited, Terry Fox Research Institute, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre Foundation, PMH-Radiation Medicine Program Academic Enrichment Fund, Motorcycle Ride for Dad (Durham), Canadian Cancer Society.

Drug-eluting stents compared to bare-metal stents improve short-term survival in patients with acute myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention: a nationwide prospective analysis of the AMIS Plus registry

BACKGROUND Recently, it has been suggested that the type of stent used in primary percutaneous coronary interventions (pPCI) might impact upon the outcomes of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Indeed, drug-eluting stents (DES) reduce neointimal hyperplasia compared to bare-metal stents (BMS). Moreover, the later generation DES, due to its biocompatible polymer coatings and stent design, allows for greater deliverability, improved endothelial healing and therefore less restenosis and thrombus generation. However, data on the safety and performance of DES in large cohorts of AMI is still limited. AIM To compare the early outcome of DES vs. BMS in AMI patients. METHODS This was a prospective, multicentre analysis containing patients from 64 hospitals in Switzerland with AMI undergoing pPCI between 2005 and 2013. The primary endpoint was in-hospital all-cause death, whereas the secondary endpoint included a composite measure of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) of death, reinfarction, and cerebrovascular event. RESULTS Of 20,464 patients with a primary diagnosis of AMI and enrolled to the AMIS Plus registry, 15,026 were referred for pPCI and 13,442 received stent implantation. 10,094 patients were implanted with DES and 2,260 with BMS. The overall in-hospital mortality was significantly lower in patients with DES compared to those with BMS implantation (2.6% vs. 7.1%,p < 0.001). The overall in-hospital MACCE after DES was similarly lower compared to BMS (3.5% vs. 7.6%, p < 0.001). After adjusting for all confounding covariables, DES remained an independent predictor for lower in-hospital mortality (OR 0.51,95% CI 0.40-0.67, p < 0.001). Since groups differed as regards to baseline characteristics and pharmacological treatment, we performed a propensity score matching (PSM) to limit potential biases. Even after the PSM, DES implantation remained independently associated with a reduced risk of in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39-0.76, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS In unselected patients from a nationwide, real-world cohort, we found DES, compared to BMS, was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and MACCE. The identification of optimal treatment strategies of patients with AMI needs further randomised evaluation; however, our findings suggest a potential benefit with DES.

Assessing Difficulties in Career Decision Making Among Swiss Adolescents with the German My Vocational Situation Scale

Assessing problems in career decision making among adolescents is important for career guidance and research. The present study is the first to investigate among Swiss adolescents the factor structure and convergent validity in relation to personality of the German-language adaptation of the My Vocational Situation Scale. Two preliminary studies (N = 217) suggested that using a 5-point Likert scale response format would increase scale reliability. The confirmatory factor analyses in the main study with two cohorts (n = 341, eighth grade; n = 303, eleventh grade) confirmed that four main factors, which assess problems with identity, decision making, information, and perceived barriers, underlie the data. The barriers factor was differentiated into aspired vocation and personal situation. Construct validity was supported by significant relationships between favorable personality characteristics (emotional stability, extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, generalized self-efficacy, and internal locus of control) and fewer problems. The results suggest that the vocational identity and barriers scales can be fruitfully applied to research on and the practice of career counseling with adolescents.

Derivation and validation of multimarker prognostication for normotensive patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism.

RATIONALE Not all patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) have a high risk of an adverse short-term outcome. OBJECTIVES This prospective cohort study aimed to develop a multimarker prognostic model that accurately classifies normotensive patients with PE into low and high categories of risk of adverse medical outcomes. METHODS The study enrolled 848 outpatients from the PROTECT (PROgnosTic valuE of Computed Tomography) study (derivation cohort) and 529 patients from the Prognostic Factors for Pulmonary Embolism (PREP) study (validation cohort). Investigators assessed study participants for a 30-day complicated course, defined as death from any cause, hemodynamic collapse, and/or adjudicated recurrent PE. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS A complicated course occurred in 63 (7.4%) of the 848 normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE in the derivation cohort and in 24 patients (4.5%) in the validation cohort. The final model included the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index, cardiac troponin I, brain natriuretic peptide, and lower limb ultrasound testing. The model performed similarly in the derivation (c-index of 0.75) and validation (c-index of 0.85) cohorts. The combination of the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index and brain natriuretic peptide testing showed a negative predictive value for a complicated course of 99.1 and 100% in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The combination of all modalities had a positive predictive value for the prediction of a complicated course of 25.8% in the derivation cohort and 21.2% in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS For normotensive patients who have acute PE, we derived and validated a multimarker model that predicts all-cause mortality, hemodynamic collapse, and/or recurrent PE within the following 30 days.