MIGCLIM: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distribution using models based on ecological niche theory. In their basic implementation, niche-based models do not constrain predictions by dispersal limitations. Hence, most niche-based modelling studies published so far have assumed dispersal to be either unlimited or null. However, depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under- or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of "potentially suitable" and "potentially colonisable" habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed MIGCLIM, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. MIGCLIM implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, barriers to dispersal or long distance dispersal. Several simulations were run for two virtual species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps, by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the hundred-year period 2001-2100 and three different IPCC-based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Our results indicate that: (i) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using MIGCLIM can differ significantly (up to more than 95% decrease in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (ii) this divergence increases both with increasing climate warming and over longer time periods; (iii) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be nearly as large as the one related to dispersal parameters; (iv) accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections.

Shift of spawning season and effects of climate warming on developmental stages of a grayling (Salmonidae)

River-dwelling fish, such as European graylings (Thymallus thymallus), are susceptible to changes in climate because they can often not avoid suboptimal temperatures, especially during early developmental stages. We analyzed data collected in a 62-year-long (1948-2009) population monitoring program. Male and female graylings were sampled about three times/week during the yearly spawning season in order to follow the development of the population. The occurrence of females bearing ripe eggs was used to approximate the timing of each spawning season. In the last years of the study, spawning season was more than 3 weeks earlier than in the first years. This shift was linked to increasing water temperatures as recorded over the last 39 years with a temperature logger at the spawning site. In early spring water temperatures rose more slowly than in later spring. Thus, embryos and larvae were exposed to increasingly colder water at a stage that is critical for sex determination and pathogen resistance in other salmonids. In summer, however, fry were exposed to increasingly warmer temperatures. The changes in water temperatures that we found embryos, larvae, and fry were exposed to could be contributing to the decline in abundance that has occurred over the last 30-40 years.

Diurnal variation in the release of alpha-MSH from rat hypothalamus and pituitary

Release of alpha-MSH from rat hypothalamic slices was characterized with respect to ionic requirements and possible diurnal variations using a sensitive radioimmunoassay. Addition of 47 mM KCl to the superfusion medium resulted in a twofold increase in alpha-MSH functions as a neurotransmitter or neuromodulator in the hypothalamus. Both spontaneous and potassium-induced alpha-MSH release compared to spontaneous release. Removal of calcium from the superfusion medium abolished the potassium-evoked release of alpha-MSH. This supports the concept that alpha-MSH release were related to diurnal variation. Marked release from the slices was observed at 10.10 h, corresponding to a peak in the alpha-MSH concentration in the hypothalamus [18] and to a lower levels of alpha-MSH in the blood. Contrarily, no significant release from the hypothalamus was obtained at 17.00 h when hypothalamic alpha-MSH content was low, but blood levels exhibited a peak. These findings suggest that there are differences in the regulation of the alpha-MSH from the pituitary and that in the hypothalamus.

Microsatellite variation reveals low genetic subdivision in a chromosome race of Sorex araneus (Mammalia, Insectivora)

Two hundred and forty-five individuals of the common shrew (Sorex araneus, Insectivora, Mammalia) from 24 sampling localities situated in four different valleys of the western European Alps were genotyped for six microsatellite loci. Allelic variability ranged from 3 to 32 different alleles at a single locus and the average gene diversity over all loci was 0.69. An analysis for F and R statistics revealed weak genetic population subdivision (Fst = 0.032; Rst = 0.016). This suggests considerable gene flow and little phylogeographic structure within and between valleys. We tested whether a stepwise mutation model (SMM) better explained variation at the microsatellite loci than an infinite allele model (IAM). No trend in favor of either model was detected.

Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review

Based on conclusions drawn from general climatic impact assessment in mountain regions, the review synthesizes results relevant to the European Alps published mainly from 1994 onward in the fields of population genetics, ecophysiology, phenology, phytogeography, modeling, paleoecology and vegetation dynamics. Other important factors of global change interacting synergistically with climatic factors are also mentioned, such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, eutrophication, ozone or changes in land-use. Topics addressed are general species distribution and populations (persistence, acclimation, genetic variability, dispersal, fragmentation, plant/animal interaction, species richness, conservation), potential response of vegetation (ecotonal shift - area, physiography - changes in the composition, structural changes), phenology, growth and productivity, and landscape. In conclusion, the European Alps appear to have a natural inertia and thus to tolerate an increase of 1-2 K of mean air temperature as far as plant species and ecosystems are concerned in general. However, the impact of land-use is very likely to negate this buffer in many areas. For a change of the order of 3 K or more, profound changes may be expected.

Geographic and temporal variation in the consumption of bats by European barn owls

Capsule We report a review of the occurrence of bats in the Barn Owl diet Tyto alba in Europe. Based on 802 studies reporting 4.02 million prey items identified in pellets, 4949 were bats (0.12%). We found that bat predation decreased during the last 150 years, is more frequent on islands than mainland, and is higher in eastern than western Europe and in southern than northern Europe. Although Barn Owls usually capture bats opportunistically, they can sometimes specialize on them.

The importance of intraespeciphic variation in the taxonomy of marine nematodes: The case of Terschellingia longispiculata Wieser & Hopper 1967 (Nematoda, Linhomoeidae)

In the presentstudy, the priority of taxonomic characters of cephalic region of Terschellingialongispiculata over those of the tail and reproductive system is discussed.Four morphological varieties of the species are established based on variationsof the tail and reproductive system. The problem of considering only changes inthe posterior region for determination of some species is posed. From this,studies on important populations must be done for the establishment of newspecies based on one of these characters, but taken together with characters inother regions such as the cephalic.

Tandem repeat sequence variation as causative cis-eQTLs for protein-coding gene expression variation: the case of CSTB.

Association studies have revealed expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) for a large number of genes. However, the causative variants that regulate gene expression levels are generally unknown. We hypothesized that copy-number variation of sequence repeats contribute to the expression variation of some genes. Our laboratory has previously identified that the rare expansion of a repeat c.-174CGGGGCGGGGCG in the promoter region of the CSTB gene causes a silencing of the gene, resulting in progressive myoclonus epilepsy. Here, we genotyped the repeat length and quantified CSTB expression by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction in 173 lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs) and fibroblast samples from the GenCord collection. The majority of alleles contain either two or three copies of this repeat. Independent analysis revealed that the c.-174CGGGGCGGGGCG repeat length is strongly associated with CSTB expression (P = 3.14 × 10(-11)) in LCLs only. Examination of both genotyped and imputed single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 2 Mb of CSTB revealed that the dodecamer repeat represents the strongest cis-eQTL for CSTB in LCLs. We conclude that the common two or three copy variation is likely the causative cis-eQTL for CSTB expression variation. More broadly, we propose that polymorphic tandem repeats may represent the causative variation of a fraction of cis-eQTLs in the genome.

Spatial and temporal variation of natural toxicity in cnidarians, bryozoans and tunicates in Mediterranean caves

The natural toxicity of cnidarians, bryozoans and tunicates in two caves was assessed using the Microtox® technique in spring and autumn. One cave was located in the Cabrera Archipelago (Balearic Islands) and the other in the Medes Islands (Catalan littoral). The organisms analysed were good representatives of the coverage of each Phylum in the communities; however, these Phyla are less abundant than sponges which are the dominant group in these caves. Seventy-one percent of the species of cnidarians and bryozoans analysed were toxic in one of the caves, communities or seasons, which indicates the relevance of bioactive species in these groups. The tunicate Lissoclinum perforatum was the most toxic species. Although all three Phyla had some highly toxic species, a common pattern that related the caves, communities and seasons was not found. Seasonal variation of toxicity in cnidarians and bryozoans was higher in the Cabrera than in the Medes cave. Moreover, variation in toxicity either between communities or between seasons was a common trait for most cnidarians and bryozoans, whereas tunicates remained toxic throughout communities and seasons.

Nestling barn owls assess short-term variation in the amount of vocally competing siblings.

Assessing the amount of rivals is crucial to optimally adjust investment into a contest. If laboratory animals show numerical abilities, little is known about the ecological implications particularly in young animals. The two to nine barn owl (Tyto alba) siblings vocally compete for priority of access to food resources before parents actually deliver them. In dyads, the individual that vocalizes at the highest rate in the absence of parents deters its siblings from competing for next delivered prey. We tested the novel hypothesis that to optimally adjust vocal investment, barn owl nestlings assess how many of their siblings are currently competing. To singleton owlets, we broadcasted a fixed global number of calls emitted by one, two or four pre-recorded unfamiliar nestlings. We could thus distinguish the independent effect on singletons' vocal behavior of the global number of calls produced by a brood from the number of competitors that produced these calls. Overall, nestlings retreated more from vocal contest when facing more competitors. However, in front of one highly motivated competitor, nestlings refrained from vocalizing to a larger extent than when competing against more but less motivated individuals. Therefore, young animals assess variation in the number of currently competing siblings based on individual-specific vocal cues.

The abrupt climate change at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary and the emergence of South-East Asia triggered the spread of sapindaceous lineages.

Background and Aims Paleoclimatic data indicate that an abrupt climate change occurred at the Eocene-Oligocene (E-O) boundary affecting the distribution of tropical forests on Earth. The same period has seen the emergence of South-East (SE) Asia, caused by the collision of the Eurasian and Australian plates. How the combination of these climatic and geomorphological factors affected the spatio-temporal history of angiosperms is little known. This topic is investigated by using the worldwide sapindaceous clade as a case study. Methods Analyses of divergence time inference, diversification and biogeography (constrained by paleogeography) are applied to a combined plastid and nuclear DNA sequence data set. Biogeographical and diversification analyses are performed over a set of trees to take phylogenetic and dating uncertainty into account. Results are analysed in the context of past climatic fluctuations. Key Results An increase in the number of dispersal events at the E-O boundary is recorded, which intensified during the Miocene. This pattern is associated with a higher rate in the emergence of new genera. These results are discussed in light of the geomorphological importance of SE Asia, which acted as a tropical bridge allowing multiple contacts between areas and additional speciation across landmasses derived from Laurasia and Gondwana. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of the combined effect of geomorphological (the emergence of most islands in SE Asia approx. 30 million years ago) and climatic (the dramatic E-O climate change that shifted the tropical belt and reduced sea levels) factors in shaping species distribution within the sapindaceous clade.