Climate change and forest sinks: Factors affecting the costs of carbon sequestration

The possibility of encouraging the growth of forests as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide has received considerable attention, partly because of evidence that this can be a relatively inexpensive means of combating climate change. But how sensitive are such estimates to specific conditions? We examine the sensitivity of carbon sequestration costs to changes in critical factors, including the nature of management and deforestation regimes, silvicultural species, relative prices, and discount rates. (C) 2000 Academic Press.

The island-scale internal wave climate of Moorea, French Polynesia

Analysis of five-year records of temperatures and currents collected at Moorea reveal strong internal wave activity at predominantly semi-diurnal frequencies impacting reef slopes at depths 30m around the entire island. Temperature changes of 1.5C to 3C are accompanied by surges of upward and onshore flow and vertical shear in onshore currents. Superimposed on annual temperature changes of approximately 3C, internal wave activity is high from Oct-May and markedly lower from Jun-Sep. The offshore pycnocline is broadly distributed with continuous stratification to at least 500m depth, and a subsurface fluorescence maximum above the strong nutricline at approximately 200m. Minimum buoyancy periods range from 4.8 to 6min, with the maximum density gradient occurring at 50 to 60m depth in summer and deepening to approximately 150 to 200m in winter. The bottom slope angle around all of Moorea is super-critical relative to the vertical stratification angle suggesting that energy propagating into shallow water is only a portion of total incident internal wave energy. Vertical gradient Richardson numbers indicate dominance by density stability relative to current shear with relatively limited diapycnal mixing. Coherence and lagged cross-correlation of semi-diurnal temperature variation indicate complex patterns of inter-site arrival of internal waves and no clear coherence or lagged correlation relationships among island sides. Semi-diurnal and high frequency internal wave packets likely arrive on Moorea from a combination of local and distant sources and may have important impacts for nutrient and particle fluxes in deep reef environments. © 2012 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Dust in the wind: How climate variables and volcanic dust affect rates of tooth wear in Central American howling monkeys.

OBJECTIVES: Two factors have been considered important contributors to tooth wear: dietary abrasives in plant foods themselves and mineral particles adhering to ingested food. Each factor limits the functional life of teeth. Cross-population studies of wear rates in a single species living in different habitats may point to the relative contributions of each factor. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We examine macroscopic dental wear in populations of Alouatta palliata (Gray, 1849) from Costa Rica (115 specimens), Panama (19), and Nicaragua (56). The sites differ in mean annual precipitation, with the Panamanian sites receiving more than twice the precipitation of those in Costa Rica or Nicaragua (∼3,500 mm vs. ∼1,500 mm). Additionally, many of the Nicaraguan specimens were collected downwind of active plinian volcanoes. Molar wear is expressed as the ratio of exposed dentin area to tooth area; premolar wear was scored using a ranking system. RESULTS: Despite substantial variation in environmental variables and the added presence of ash in some environments, molar wear rates do not differ significantly among the populations. Premolar wear, however, is greater in individuals collected downwind from active volcanoes compared with those living in environments that did not experience ash-fall. DISCUSSION: Volcanic ash seems to be an important contributor to anterior tooth wear but less so in molar wear. That wear is not found uniformly across the tooth row may be related to malformation in the premolars due to fluorosis. A surge of fluoride accompanying the volcanic ash may differentially affect the premolars as the molars fully mineralize early in the life of Alouatta.

Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into Miyun Reservoir,Beijing, China

The Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in the Miyun Reservoir are debatable under a non-stationary climate in the past 4 decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate variability to the decreasing inflow into the Miyun Reservoir during 1961–2008. Different from previous studies on this watershed, we used a comprehensive approach to quantify the timing of changes in hydrology and associated environmental variables using the long-term historical hydrometeorology and remote-sensing-based land use records. To effectively quantify the different impacts of the climate variation and land use change on streamflow during different sub-periods, an annual water balance model (AWB), the climate elasticity model (CEM), and a rainfall–runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant (p  <  0.01) decrease in annual streamflow, a significant positive trend in annual potential evapotranspiration (p  <  0.01), and an insignificant (p  >  0.1) negative trend in annual precipitation during 1961–2008. We identified two streamflow breakpoints, 1983 and 1999, by the sequential Mann–Kendall test and double-mass curve. Climate variability alone did not explain the decrease in inflow to the Miyun Reservoir. Reduction of water yield was closely related to increase in actual evapotranspiration due to the expansion of forestland and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and industrial uses in the basin. The contribution to the observed streamflow decline from land use change fell from 64–92 % during 1984–1999 to 36–58 % during 2000–2008, whereas the contribution from climate variation climbed from 8–36 % during the 1984–1999 to 42–64 % during 2000–2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the most recent decade (i.e., 2000s). We conclude that future climate change and variability will further challenge the water supply capacity of the Miyun Reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation management in the study basin.

Trace gas measurements from infrared satellite for chemistry and climate applications

Space-borne thermal infrared instruments working in the nadir geometry are providing spectroscopic measurements of species that impact on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on the climate forcing: H2O, CO2, N2O, CH4, CFCs, O3, and CO. The atmospheric abundances obtained from the analysis of IMG/ADEOS measurements are discussed in order to demonstrate the potential scientific return to be expected from future missions using advanced infrared nadir sounders. Some strengths and limitations of passive infrared remote sensing from space are illustrated. © 2003 European Geosciences Union.

Education and climate change – some systemic connections

Unlike most papers on education and ecology, this one is not concerned with the content of education but its organisation as a system and hence its purpose or finality. The central contention of the paper, which takes English education and training (or ‘learning’) as a case in point, is that in a new market-state formation the pursuit of short-term goals is tied to the global free-market economy over which any attempt at democratic control has been relinquished. At a time when humanity worldwide faces increasing change in the ecology that sustains it, this is considered to be ‘ecocidally insane’ and the opposite of any sort of learning from experience to alter behaviour in the future. The re-regulated new global market is seen in conclusion as a crisis response to the end of the previous Keynesian welfare nation-state formation. As such, it is argued to be unsustainable in any sense.

Prehistoric Pinus woodland dynamics in an upland landscape in northern Scotland: the roles of climate change and human impact

Pollen, microscopic charcoal, palaeohydrological and dendrochronological analyses are applied to a radiocarbon and tephrochronologically dated mid Holocene (ca. 8500–3000 cal B.P.) peat sequence with abundant fossil Pinus (pine) wood. The Pinus populations on peat fluctuated considerably over the period in question. Colonisation by Pinus from ca. 7900–7600 cal B.P. appears to have had no specific environmental trigger; it was probably determined by the rate of migration from particular populations. The second phase, at ca. 5000–4400 cal B.P., was facilitated by anthropogenic interference that reduced competition from other trees. The pollen record shows two Pinus declines. The first at ca. 6200–5500 cal B.P. was caused by a series of rapid and frequent climatic shifts. The second, the so-called pine decline, was very gradual (ca. 4200–3300 cal B.P.) at Loch Farlary and may not have been related to climate change as is often supposed. Low intensity but sustained grazing pressures were more important. Throughout the mid Holocene, the frequency and intensity of burning in these open Pinus–Calluna woods were probably highly sensitive to hydrological (climatic) change. Axe marks on several trees are related to the mid to late Bronze Age, i.e., long after the trees had died.

Peat, pine stumps and people: interactions behind climate, vegetation change and human activity in wetland archaeology at Loch Farlary, Northern Scotland

First paragraph: In 1993, a peat-cutter, Bruce Field, working on the blanket peat bank he rented from the Sutherland Estate by Loch Farlary, above Golspie in Sutherland (fig 1), reported to Scottish Natural Heritage and Historic Scotland several pieces of pine wood bearing axe marks. Their depth in the peat suggested the cut marks to be prehistoric. This paper summarizes the work undertaken to understand the age and archaeological significance of this find (see also Tipping et al 2001 in press). The pine trees were initially thought to be part of a population that flourished briefly across northern Scotland in the middle of the Holocene period from c 4800 cal BP (Huntley, Daniell & Allen 1997). The subsequent collapse across northernmost Scotland of this population, the pine decline, at around 4200-4000 cal BP is unexplained: climate change has been widely assumed (Dubois & Ferguson 1985; Bridge, Haggart & Lowe 1990; Gear & Huntley 1991) but anthropogenic activity has not been disproved (Birks 1975; Bennett 1995). It was hypothesized that the Farlary find would allow for the first time the direct link between human woodland clearance and the Early Bronze Age pine decline.

Recovery of a biodiversity action plans species in northwest England: possible role of climate change, artificial habitat and water quality amelioration. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 16

The honeycomb reef worm Sabellaria alveolata is recognised as being an important component of intertidal communities. It is a priority habitat within the UK Biodiversity Action Plan and as a biogenic reef forming species is covered by Annex 1 of the EC habitats directive. S. alveolata has a lusitanean (southern) distribution, being largely restricted to the south and west coasts of England. A broad-scale survey of S. alveolata distribution along the north-west coasts was undertaken in 2003/2004. These records were then compared with previous distribution records, mainly those collected by Cunningham in 1984. More detailed mapping was carried out at Hilbre Island at the mouth of the River Dee, due to recent reports that S. alveolata had become re-established there after a long absence.

Ocean climate anomalies and the ecology of the North Sea

Long-term changes in the plankton of the North Sea are investigated using data from the continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey. During the last 4 decades, there appears to have been 2 large anomalous periods within the plankton data set, one that occurred in the late 1970s and the other in the late 1980s. These anomalous periods seem to be largely synchronous with unusual ocean climate conditions that have occurred episodically over a timescale of decades. The unusual ocean climate conditions prevailing at these 2 time periods appear to contain important hydrographical elements that involve oceanic incursions into the North Sea. This paper, using data from the CPR survey and providing evidence from other studies, focuses on the relationship between the long-term changes in the biology of the North Sea and these 2 exceptional hydro-climatic events. Here, we suggest that while atmospheric variability and associated changes in regional temperatures have a dominant effect on the marine environment, oceanic influences on the ecology of a semi-closed environment such as the North Sea may have been underestimated in the past.

Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch

Phenology, the study of annually recurring life cycle events such as the timing of migrations and flowering, can provide particularly sensitive indicators of climate change. Changes in phenology may be important to ecosystem function because the level of response to climate change may vary across functional groups and multiple trophic levels. The decoupling of phenological relationships will have important ramifications for trophic interactions, altering food-web structures and leading to eventual ecosystem-level changes. Temperate marine environments may be particularly vulnerable to these changes because the recruitment success of higher trophic levels is highly dependent on synchronization with pulsed planktonic production. Using long-term data of 66 plankton taxa during the period from 1958 to 2002, we investigated whether climate warming signals are emergent across all trophic levels and functional groups within an ecological community. Here we show that not only is the marine pelagic community responding to climate changes, but also that the level of response differs throughout the community and the seasonal cycle, leading to a mismatch between trophic levels and functional groups.

Regional climate change and harmful algal blooms in the northeast Atlantic

We investigated long-term spatial variability in a number of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Over the last four decades, some dinoflagellate taxa showed pronounced variation in the south and east of the North Sea, with the most significant increases being restricted to the adjacent waters off Norway. There was also a general decrease along the eastern coast of the United Kingdom. The most prominent feature in the interannual bloom frequencies over the last four decades was the anomalously high values recorded in the late 1980s in the northern and central North Sea areas. The only mesoscale area in the northeast Atlantic to show a significant increase in bloom formation over the last decade was the Norwegian coastal region. The changing spatial patterns of HAB taxa and the frequency of bloom formation are discussed in relation to regional climate change, in particular, changes in temperature, salinity, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Areas highly vulnerable to the effects of regional climate change on HABs are Norwegian coastal waters and the Skagerrak. Other vulnerable areas include Danish coastal waters, and to a lesser extent, the German and Dutch Bight and the northern Irish Sea. Quite apart from eutrophication, our results give a preview of what might happen to certain HAB genera under changing climatic conditions in temperate environments and their responses to variability of climate oscillations such as the NAO.

Climate change and marine plankton

Understanding how climate change will affect the planet is a key issue worldwide. Questions concerning the pace and impacts of climate change are thus central to many ecological and biogeochemical studies, and addressing the consequences of climate change is now high on the list of priorities for funding agencies. Here, we review the interactions between climate change and plankton communities, focusing on systematic changes in plankton community structure, abundance, distribution and phenology over recent decades. We examine the potential socioeconomic impacts of these plankton changes, such as the effects of bottom-up forcing on commercially exploited fish stocks (i.e. plankton as food for fish). We also consider the crucial roles that plankton might have in dictating the future pace of climate change via feedback mechanisms responding to elevated atmospheric CO sub(2) levels. An important message emerges from this review: ongoing plankton monitoring programmes worldwide will act as sentinels to identify future changes in marine ecosystems.