Prestazioni energetico-ambientali di sistemi cogenerativi avanzati e analisi di casi applicativi

Lo scopo di questa tesi è quello di analizzare dapprima l’impatto ambientale di tali impianti e poi analizzare il contributo effettivo che oggi la tecnologia innovativa dei cicli Rankine organici può dare nella valorizzazione elettrica del calore di scarto di processi industriali, focalizzando l’obiettivo principalmente sulle turbine a gas ed eseguendo un caso di studio in un settore ancora poco esplorato da questa tecnologia, quello Oil&Gas. Dopo aver effettuato il censimento degli impianti a fonti fossili e rinnovabili, cogenerativi e non, presenti in Emilia-Romagna, è stato sviluppato un software chiamato MiniBref che permette di simulare il funzionamento di una qualsiasi centrale termoelettrica grazie alla possibilità di combinare la tecnologia dell’impianto con il tipo di combustibile consentendo la valutazione delle emissioni inquinanti ed i potenziali di inquinamento. Successivamente verranno illustrati gli ORC, partendo dalle caratteristiche impiantistiche e termodinamiche fino ad arrivare alla scelta del fluido organico, fondamentale per le performance del ciclo. Dopo aver effettuato una ricognizione dello stato dell’arte delle applicazioni industriali degli ORC nel recupero termico, verranno eseguite simulazioni numeriche per ricostruire gli ORC ed avere una panoramica il più completa ed attendibile delle prestazioni effettive di questi sistemi. In ultimo verranno illustrati i risultati di un caso di studio che vede l’adozione di recupero mediante ciclo organico in un’installazione esistente del settore Oil&Gas. Si effettuerà uno studio delle prestazione dell’impianto al variare delle pressioni massime e minime del ciclo ed al variare del fluido impiegato al fine di mostrare come questi parametri influenzino non solo le performance ma anche le caratteristiche impiantistiche da adottare. A conclusione del lavoro si riporteranno i risultati relativi all’analisi condotte considerando l’impianto ai carichi parziali ed in assetto cogenerativo.

Kinematic models of interseismic deformation from inversion of GPS and InSAR measurements to estimate fault parameters and coupling degree

We have used kinematic models in two Italian regions to reproduce surface interseismic velocities obtained from InSAR and GPS measurements. We have considered a Block modeling, BM, approach to evaluate which fault system is actively accommodating the occurring deformation in both considered areas. We have performed a study for the Umbria-Marche Apennines, obtaining that the tectonic extension observed by GPS measurements is explained by the active contribution of at least two fault systems, one of which is the Alto Tiberina fault, ATF. We have estimated also the interseismic coupling distribution for the ATF using a 3D surface and the result shows an interesting correlation between the microseismicity and the uncoupled fault portions. The second area analyzed concerns the Gargano promontory for which we have used jointly the available InSAR and GPS velocities. Firstly we have attached the two datasets to the same terrestrial reference frame and then using a simple dislocation approach, we have estimated the best fault parameters reproducing the available data, providing a solution corresponding to the Mattinata fault. Subsequently we have considered within a BM analysis both GPS and InSAR datasets in order to evaluate if the Mattinata fault may accommodate the deformation occurring in the central Adriatic due to the relative motion between the North-Adriatic and South-Adriatic plates. We obtain that the deformation occurring in that region should be accommodated by more that one fault system, that is however difficult to detect since the poor coverage of geodetic measurement offshore of the Gargano promontory. Finally we have performed also the estimate of the interseismic coupling distribution for the Mattinata fault, obtaining a shallow coupling pattern. Both of coupling distributions found using the BM approach have been tested by means of resolution checkerboard tests and they demonstrate that the coupling patterns depend on the geodetic data positions.

Diversity of microbial communities at shallow-hydrothermal vents off Dominica, Lesser Antilles

Hydrothermal vents are often compared to desert oases, because of the presence of highly diverse and abundant biotic communities inhabiting these extreme environments. Nevertheless, the microbial communities associated with shallow-hydrothermal systems have been poorly studied. Hydrothermal activity at Dominica Island is quite well known under the geological and geochemical aspects, but no previous information existed about the microbial communities associated to this area. This thesis is therefore targeting the microbiology of hydrothermal sediments combining geochemical and molecular biological investigations, focusing on differences between hydrothermal vents and background (i.e. control) areas, and between hydrothermal sites. It was also intended to assess relationship between geochemical parameters and microbial diversity at the two hydrothermally impacted sites. Two shallow-sea hydrothermal vents located south-west off Dominica Island (Lesser Antilles) have been investigated in this study: Champagne Hot Springs and Soufriere Bay offshore vent. During this study, sediments for geochemical and molecular analyses were collected every 2 cm from the two impacted areas and from two control sites not associated with hydrothermal activity; in situ temperatures measurements were also taken every 5 cm deep in the sediment for all the sites. A geochemical characterization of the sediment porewater was performed through the analysis of several elements’ concentrations (i.e. H2S, Cl-, Br-, SO42-, Fe2+, Na+, K+, B+, Si+). Microbial communities at the different sites were studied by Automated Intergenic Spacer Analysis (ARISA). Inspection of the operational taxonomic units (OTUs) distribution was performed, as well as statistical analyses for communities’ structure and composition differences, and for changes of β-diversity along with sediment geochemistry. Data suggested that mixing between hydrothermal fluids and seawater results in distinct different environmental gradients and potential ecological niches between the two investigated hydrothermal vents, reflecting a difference in microbial community structures between them.

Design and optimization of turbo-expanders for organic rankine cycles

In a world focused on the need to produce energy for a growing population, while reducing atmospheric emissions of carbon dioxide, organic Rankine cycles represent a solution to fulfil this goal. This study focuses on the design and optimization of axial-flow turbines for organic Rankine cycles. From the turbine designer point of view, most of this fluids exhibit some peculiar characteristics, such as small enthalpy drop, low speed of sound, large expansion ratio. A computational model for the prediction of axial-flow turbine performance is developed and validated against experimental data. The model allows to calculate turbine performance within a range of accuracy of ±3%. The design procedure is coupled with an optimization process, performed using a genetic algorithm where the turbine total-to-static efficiency represents the objective function. The computational model is integrated in a wider analysis of thermodynamic cycle units, by providing the turbine optimal design. First, the calculation routine is applied in the context of the Draugen offshore platform, where three heat recovery systems are compared. The turbine performance is investigated for three competing bottoming cycles: organic Rankine cycle (operating cyclopentane), steam Rankine cycle and air bottoming cycle. Findings indicate the air turbine as the most efficient solution (total-to-static efficiency = 0.89), while the cyclopentane turbine results as the most flexible and compact technology (2.45 ton/MW and 0.63 m3/MW). Furthermore, the study shows that, for organic and steam Rankine cycles, the optimal design configurations for the expanders do not coincide with those of the thermodynamic cycles. This suggests the possibility to obtain a more accurate analysis by including the computational model in the simulations of the thermodynamic cycles. Afterwards, the performance analysis is carried out by comparing three organic fluids: cyclopentane, MDM and R245fa. Results suggest MDM as the most effective fluid from the turbine performance viewpoint (total-to-total efficiency = 0.89). On the other hand, cyclopentane guarantees a greater net power output of the organic Rankine cycle (P = 5.35 MW), while R245fa represents the most compact solution (1.63 ton/MW and 0.20 m3/MW). Finally, the influence of the composition of an isopentane/isobutane mixture on both the thermodynamic cycle performance and the expander isentropic efficiency is investigated. Findings show how the mixture composition affects the turbine efficiency and so the cycle performance. Moreover, the analysis demonstrates that the use of binary mixtures leads to an enhancement of the thermodynamic cycle performance.

A Bayesian changepoint analysis on spatio-temporal point processes

Changepoint analysis is a well established area of statistical research, but in the context of spatio-temporal point processes it is as yet relatively unexplored. Some substantial differences with regard to standard changepoint analysis have to be taken into account: firstly, at every time point the datum is an irregular pattern of points; secondly, in real situations issues of spatial dependence between points and temporal dependence within time segments raise. Our motivating example consists of data concerning the monitoring and recovery of radioactive particles from Sandside beach, North of Scotland; there have been two major changes in the equipment used to detect the particles, representing known potential changepoints in the number of retrieved particles. In addition, offshore particle retrieval campaigns are believed may reduce the particle intensity onshore with an unknown temporal lag; in this latter case, the problem concerns multiple unknown changepoints. We therefore propose a Bayesian approach for detecting multiple changepoints in the intensity function of a spatio-temporal point process, allowing for spatial and temporal dependence within segments. We use Log-Gaussian Cox Processes, a very flexible class of models suitable for environmental applications that can be implemented using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), a computationally efficient alternative to Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods for approximating the posterior distribution of the parameters. Once the posterior curve is obtained, we propose a few methods for detecting significant change points. We present a simulation study, which consists in generating spatio-temporal point pattern series under several scenarios; the performance of the methods is assessed in terms of type I and II errors, detected changepoint locations and accuracy of the segment intensity estimates. We finally apply the above methods to the motivating dataset and find good and sensible results about the presence and quality of changes in the process.

Sviluppo dell'ingegneria di cantiere per la realizzazione di moduli "local equipment room"

Sviluppo dell'ingegneria di cantiere per la realizzazione di due strutture per il settore oil & gas e offshore. Definizione di layout di cantiere, supportazione, roll-up di sottoassiemi, sollevamenti tramite tiri piramidali e bilancini, movimentazione tramite carrelli semoventi o SPMT.

Dynamics of inorganic carbon and carbonate saturation in the Gulf of Cádiz (SW Spain)

The study of inorganic carbon chemistry of the coastal ocean is conducted in the Gulf of Cádiz (GoC). Here we describe observations obtained during 4 sampling cruises in March, June, September and November 2015. The primary data set consists of state-of-the-art measurements of the keystone parameters of the marine CO2 system: Total Alkalinity (TA), pH, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). We have then calculated aragonite and calcite saturation state. The distribution of inorganic carbon system parameters in the north eastern shelf of the Gulf of Cádiz showed temporal and spatial variability. River input, mixing, primary production, respiration and remineralization were factors that controlled such distributions. Data related to carbonate saturation of calcite and aragonite reveal the occurrence of a supersaturated water; in any case, both species increased with distance and decreased with depth. The carbon system parameters present a different behaviour close to the coast to offshore ad at deeper water. In this area six water masses are clearly identified by their different chemical properties: Surface Atlantic Water, North Atlantic Central Water (NACW) and Mediterranean Water (MOW). Moreover, with this work the measurement of calcium in seawater is optimize, allowing a better quantification for future work of the saturation state of CaCO3.

Reservoir characterization of the Cardium Formation in the Ferrier Oilfield, west-central Alberta, Canada.

This thesis has the main aim of defining the lithostratigraphy, depositional architecture, post-depositional modifications and reservoir characteristics of the Cardium Formation in the Ferrier Oilfield, and how these characteristics can have great impact over production rates, GOR and produced fluid discrimination. In the Ferrier area, the Cardium Formation is composed by a NE prograding clastic sequence made up of offshore to shoreface deposits sealed by marine shales. The main reservoir is composed by sandstones and conglomerates interpreted to have deposited in a shoreface depositional environment. Lithofacies and net reservoir thickness mapping led to more detailed understanding of the 3D reservoir architecture, and cross-sections shed light on the Cardium depositional architecture and post-deposition sediment erosion in the Ferrier area. Detailed core logging, thin section, SEM and CL analyses were used to study the mineralogy, texture and pore characterization of the Cardium reservoir, and three main compartments have been identified based on production data and reservoir characteristics. Finally, two situations showing odd production behaviour of the Cardium were resolved. This shed light on the effect of structural features and reservoir quality and thickness over hydrocarbon migration pathways. The Ferrier example offers a unique case of fluid discrimination in clastic reservoirs due both to depositional and post-depositional factors, and could be used as analogue for similar situations in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.

A Nonstationary Negative Binomial Time Series with Time-Dependent Covariates: Enterococcus Counts in Boston Harbor

Boston Harbor has had a history of poor water quality, including contamination by enteric pathogens. We conduct a statistical analysis of data collected by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) between 1996 and 2002 to evaluate the effects of court-mandated improvements in sewage treatment. Motivated by the ineffectiveness of standard Poisson mixture models and their zero-inflated counterparts, we propose a new negative binomial model for time series of Enterococcus counts in Boston Harbor, where nonstationarity and autocorrelation are modeled using a nonparametric smooth function of time in the predictor. Without further restrictions, this function is not identifiable in the presence of time-dependent covariates; consequently we use a basis orthogonal to the space spanned by the covariates and use penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL) for estimation. We conclude that Enterococcus counts were greatly reduced near the Nut Island Treatment Plant (NITP) outfalls following the transfer of wastewaters from NITP to the Deer Island Treatment Plant (DITP) and that the transfer of wastewaters from Boston Harbor to the offshore diffusers in Massachusetts Bay reduced the Enterococcus counts near the DITP outfalls.

Ecology of larval fishes and large zooplankton in the Keweenaw Current region of Lake Superior, with special focus on lake herring, Coregonus artedi

I assessed the influence of the Keweenaw Current and spring thermal bar on the distribution of larval fishes and large zooplankton in Lake Superior. In 1998 and 1999, samples were collected from inshore (0.2 – 3.0 km from shore) and offshore (5.0 – 9.0 km from shore) locations on three transects off the western coast of the Keweenaw Peninsula, Michigan. For larval fishes, density and size distribution patterns of lake herring (Coregonus artedi), rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax), burbot (Lota lota), deepwater sculpin (Myoxocephalus thompsoni), and spoonhead sculpin (Cottus ricei) suggest a seasonal inshore to offshore movement. For zooplankton, seasonal warming appeared to be the major factor that limited planktonic catches of the primarily benthic Mysisrelicta and Diporeia spp., while simultaneously stimulated growth and reproduction of the cladocerans Daphnia spp., Holopedium gibberum, and Bythotrephes cederstroemi. In contrast, calanoid copepods as a group were abundant throughout the entire sampling season. The greatest abundances of zooplankton were generally encountered offshore, even for the cladocerans, which apparently expanded from inshore to offshore locations with seasonal warming. In 2000, sampling efforts focused on lake herring. Samples were collected from surface waters at 0.1 – 17.0 km from shore on two transects. Lake herring larvae were also reared in the laboratory from eggs in order to validate the use of otolith microstructure for aging. Increment deposition was not statistically different from a daily rate starting from 28 days after hatching, near the time of yolk-sac absorption, but larvae with lower growth rates could not be aged as accurately. In Lake Superior, lake herring tended to be slightly more abundant, larger, and older at inshore locations, but a dense patch of younger larvae was also encountered 7 – 13 km from shore. The distribution iiipatterns suggest that larvae were transported by prevailing currents into the study region, possibly from the more productive spawning regions in western Lake Superior. Growth rates were suppressed at offshore locations where temperatures were less than 8°C. These results indicate that lake herring larvae may be transported far distances from spawning concentrations by longshore currents, and water temperatures may largely control their growth.

Study of particle movement in the nearshore region of Lake Superior with radioisotope tracers

Biogeochemical processes in the coastal region, including the coastal area of the Great Lakes, are of great importance due to the complex physical, chemical and biological characteristics that differ from those on either the adjoining land or open water systems. Particle-reactive radioisotopes, both naturally occurring (210Pb, 210Po and 7Be) and man-made (137Cs), have proven to be useful tracers for these processes in many systems. However, a systematic isotope study on the northwest coast of the Keweenaw Peninsula in Lake Superior has not yet been performed. In this dissertation research, field sampling, laboratory measurements and numerical modeling were conducted to understand the biogeochemistry of the radioisotope tracers and some particulate-related coastal processes. In the first part of the dissertation, radioisotope activities of 210Po and 210Pb in a variability of samples (dissolved, suspended particle, sediment trap materials, surficial sediment) were measured. A completed picture of the distribution and disequilibrium of this pair of isotopes was drawn. The application of a simple box model utilizing these field observations reveals short isotope residence times in the water column and a significant contribution of sediment resuspension (for both particles and isotopes). The results imply a highly dynamic coastal region. In the second part of this dissertation, this conclusion is examined further. Based on intensive sediment coring, the spatial distribution of isotope inventories (mainly 210Pb, 137Cs and 7Be) in the nearshore region was determined. Isotope-based focusing factors categorized most of the sampling sites as non- or temporary depositional zones. A twodimensional steady-state box-in-series model was developed and applied to individual transects with the 210Pb inventories as model input. The modeling framework included both water column and upper sediments down to the depth of unsupported 210Pb penetration. The model was used to predict isotope residence times and cross-margin fluxes of sediments and isotopes at different locations along each transect. The time scale for sediment focusing from the nearshore to offshore regions of the transect was on the order of 10 years. The possibility of sediment longshore movement was indicated by high inventory ratios of 137Cs: 210Pb. Local deposition of fine particles, including fresh organic carbon, may explain the observed distribution of benthic organisms such as Diporeia. In the last part of this dissertation, isotope tracers, 210Pb and 210Po, were coupled into a hydrodynamic model for Lake Superior. The model was modified from an existing 2-D finite difference physical-biological model which has previously been successfully applied on Lake Superior. Using the field results from part one of this dissertation as initial conditions, the model was used to predict the isotope distribution in the water column; reasonable results were achieved. The modeling experiments demonstrated the potential for using a hydrodynamic model to study radioisotope biogeochemistry in the lake, although further refinements are necessary.

MODEL UPDATING AND STRUCTURAL HEALTH MONITORING OF HORIZONTAL AXIS WIND TURBINES VIA ADVANCED SPINNING FINITE ELEMENTS AND STOCHASTIC SUBSPACE IDENTIFICATION METHODS

Wind energy has been one of the most growing sectors of the nation’s renewable energy portfolio for the past decade, and the same tendency is being projected for the upcoming years given the aggressive governmental policies for the reduction of fossil fuel dependency. Great technological expectation and outstanding commercial penetration has shown the so called Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWT) technologies. Given its great acceptance, size evolution of wind turbines over time has increased exponentially. However, safety and economical concerns have emerged as a result of the newly design tendencies for massive scale wind turbine structures presenting high slenderness ratios and complex shapes, typically located in remote areas (e.g. offshore wind farms). In this regard, safety operation requires not only having first-hand information regarding actual structural dynamic conditions under aerodynamic action, but also a deep understanding of the environmental factors in which these multibody rotating structures operate. Given the cyclo-stochastic patterns of the wind loading exerting pressure on a HAWT, a probabilistic framework is appropriate to characterize the risk of failure in terms of resistance and serviceability conditions, at any given time. Furthermore, sources of uncertainty such as material imperfections, buffeting and flutter, aeroelastic damping, gyroscopic effects, turbulence, among others, have pleaded for the use of a more sophisticated mathematical framework that could properly handle all these sources of indetermination. The attainable modeling complexity that arises as a result of these characterizations demands a data-driven experimental validation methodology to calibrate and corroborate the model. For this aim, System Identification (SI) techniques offer a spectrum of well-established numerical methods appropriated for stationary, deterministic, and data-driven numerical schemes, capable of predicting actual dynamic states (eigenrealizations) of traditional time-invariant dynamic systems. As a consequence, it is proposed a modified data-driven SI metric based on the so called Subspace Realization Theory, now adapted for stochastic non-stationary and timevarying systems, as is the case of HAWT’s complex aerodynamics. Simultaneously, this investigation explores the characterization of the turbine loading and response envelopes for critical failure modes of the structural components the wind turbine is made of. In the long run, both aerodynamic framework (theoretical model) and system identification (experimental model) will be merged in a numerical engine formulated as a search algorithm for model updating, also known as Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) process. This iterative engine is based on a set of function minimizations computed by a metric called Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC). In summary, the Thesis is composed of four major parts: (1) development of an analytical aerodynamic framework that predicts interacted wind-structure stochastic loads on wind turbine components; (2) development of a novel tapered-swept-corved Spinning Finite Element (SFE) that includes dampedgyroscopic effects and axial-flexural-torsional coupling; (3) a novel data-driven structural health monitoring (SHM) algorithm via stochastic subspace identification methods; and (4) a numerical search (optimization) engine based on ASA and MAC capable of updating the SFE aerodynamic model.

Governing individual learning in the transition phase of software maintenance offshoring: a dynamic perspective

Prior studies suggest that clients need to actively govern knowledge transfer to vendor staff in offshore outsourcing. In this paper, we analyze longitudinal data from four software maintenance offshore out-sourcing projects to explore why governance may be needed for knowledge transfer and how governance and the individual learning of vendor engineers inter-act over time. Our results suggest that self-control is central to learning, but may be hampered by low levels of trust and expertise at the outset of projects. For these foundations to develop, clients initially need to exert high amounts of formal and clan controls to enforce learning activities against barriers to knowledge sharing. Once learning activities occur, trust and expertise increase and control portfolios may show greater emphases on self-control.

Are great Cascadia earthquakes recorded in the sedimentary records from small forearc lakes?

Here we investigate sedimentary records from four small inland lakes located in the southern Cascadia forearc region for evidence of earthquakes. Three of these lakes are in the Klamath Mountains near the Oregon–California border, and one is in the central Oregon Coast range. The sedimentary sequences recovered from these lakes are composed of normal lake sediment interbedded with disturbance event layers. The thickest of these layers are graded, and appear to be turbidites or linked debrites (turbidites with a basal debris-flow deposit), suggesting rapid deposition. Variations in particle size and organic content of these layers are reflected in the density and magnetic susceptibility data. The frequency and timing of these events, based on radiocarbon ages from detrital organics, is similar to the offshore seismogenic turbidite record from trench and slope basin cores along the Cascadia margin. Stratigraphic correlation of these anomalous deposits based on radiocarbon ages, down-core density, and magnetic susceptibility data between lake and offshore records suggest synchronous triggering. The areal extent and multiple depositional environments over which these events appear to correlate suggest that these deposits were most likely caused by shaking during great Cascadia earthquakes.

Explaining Variations in Client Extra Costs between Software Projects Offshored to India

Gaining economic benefits from substantially lower labor costs has been reported as a major reason for offshoring labor-intensive information systems services to low-wage countries. However, if wage differences are so high, why is there such a high level of variation in the economic success between offshored IS projects? This study argues that offshore outsourcing involves a number of extra costs for the ^his paper was recommended for acceptance by Associate Guest Editor Erran Carmel. client organization that account for the economic failure of offshore projects. The objective is to disaggregate these extra costs into their constituent parts and to explain why they differ between offshored software projects. The focus is on software development and maintenance projects that are offshored to Indian vendors. A theoretical framework is developed a priori based on transaction cost economics (TCE) and the knowledge-based view of the firm, comple mented by factors that acknowledge the specific offshore context The framework is empirically explored using a multiple case study design including six offshored software projects in a large German financial service institution. The results of our analysis indicate that the client incurs post contractual extra costs for four types of activities: (1) re quirements specification and design, (2) knowledge transfer, (3) control, and (4) coordination. In projects that require a high level of client-specific knowledge about idiosyncratic business processes and software systems, these extra costs were found to be substantially higher than in projects where more general knowledge was needed. Notably, these costs most often arose independently from the threat of oppor tunistic behavior, challenging the predominant TCE logic of market failure. Rather, the client extra costs were parti cularly high in client-specific projects because the effort for managing the consequences of the knowledge asymmetries between client and vendor was particularly high in these projects. Prior experiences of the vendor with related client projects were found to reduce the level of extra costs but could not fully offset the increase in extra costs in highly client-specific projects. Moreover, cultural and geographic distance between client and vendor as well as personnel turnover were found to increase client extra costs. Slight evidence was found, however, that the cost-increasing impact of these factors was also leveraged in projects with a high level of required client-specific knowledge (moderator effect).