Can the Deforestation Breeze Change the Rainfall in Amazonia? A Case Study for the BR-163 Highway Region

The authors simulated the effects of Amazonian mesoscale deforestation in the boundary layer and in rainfall with the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) model. They found that both the area and shape (with respect to wind incidence) of deforestation and the soil moisture status contributed to the state of the atmosphere during the time scale of several weeks, with distinguishable patterns of temperature, humidity, and rainfall. Deforestation resulted in the development of a three-dimensional thermal cell, the so-called deforestation breeze, slightly shifted downwind to large-scale circulation. The boundary layer was warmer and drier above 1000-m height and was slightly wetter up to 2000-m height. Soil wetness affected the circulation energetics proportionally to the soil dryness (for soil wetness below similar to 0.6). The shape of the deforestation controlled the impact on rainfall. The horizontal strips lined up with the prevailing wind showed a dominant increase in rainfall, significant up to about 60 000 km(2). On the other hand, in the patches aligned in the opposite direction (north-south), there was both increase and decrease in precipitation in two distinct regions, as a result of clearly separated upward and downward branches, which caused the precipitation to increase for patches up to 15 000 km(2). The authors` estimates for the size of deforestation impacting the rainfall contributed to fill up the low spatial resolution in other previous studies.

Impact of biomass burning aerosols on precipitation in the Amazon: A modeling case study

A study of the potential role of aerosols in modifying clouds and precipitation is presented using a numerical atmospheric model. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud size distribution properties taken in the southwestern Amazon region during the transition from dry to wet seasons were used as guidelines to define the microphysical parameters for the simulations. Numerical simulations were carried out using the Brazilian Development on Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, and the results presented considerable sensitivity to changes in these parameters. High CCN concentrations, typical of polluted days, were found to result in increases or decreases in total precipitation, depending on the level of pollution used as a reference, showing a complexity that parallels the aerosol-precipitation interaction. Our results show that on the grids evaluated, higher CCN concentrations reduced low-to-moderate rainfall rates and increased high rainfall rates. The principal consequence of the increased pollution was a change from a warm to a cold rain process, which affected the maximum and overall mean accumulated precipitation. Under polluted conditions, cloud cover diminished, allowing greater amounts of solar radiation to reach the surface. Aerosol absorption of radiation in the lower layers of the atmosphere delayed convective evolution but produced higher maximum rainfall rates due to increased instability. In addition, the intensity of the surface sensible heat flux, as well as that of the latent heat flux, was reduced by the lower temperature difference between surface and air, producing greater energy stores at the surface.

Climate change and energy use : The role for anthropological research

The expression 'global climate change' no longer designates merely a discourse on possible future risks; today it us used as a shorthand for specific ongoing events that are having a serious impact on the lives of people around the world. In the light of this change and consequent efforts to limit carbon dioxide emissions, contributions from social scientists are increasingly in demand within the study of energy use. My concern here is not whether intervention is a proper role for anthropologists, but rather how we may position ourselves within energy- and climate-related research.

Decisions with Impact on Energy Reduction Opportunities : Swedish manufacturers and buyers of new single-family houses

This article discusses some of the complexities of human decision-making. It aims, in particular, at relating the nature of decision-making to the illusory dichotomies of change and stability, individual actions and cultural sharing. Serving as an illustration to the discussion of the article is ongoing fieldwork in contexts of buying, selling and constructing pre-fabricated detached houses in the central Sweden, and the very specific question of how decisions to install one kind of heating-system rather than another come about. A common reductionism is to narrow down the understanding of decisions about heating systems and energy consumption to conscious choices made by individual householders. I have asked myself whether, on the contrary, anyone actually makes such decisions at all. Perhaps some of these decisions are merely outcomes of interaction between different individuals with their respective responsibilities and focuses of interest.

The impact of big-boxes on local retail : What happens when IKEA comes to town?

The development of large discount retailers, or big-boxes as they are sometimes referred to, are often subject to heated debate and their entry on a market is greeted with either great enthusiasm or dread. For instance, the world’s largest retailer Wal-Mart (Forbes 2014) has a number of anti- and pro-groups dedicated to its being and the event of a Wal-Mart entry tends to be met with protests and campaigns (Decamme 2013) but also welcomed by, for instance, consumers (Davis & DeBonis 2013). Also in Sweden, the entry of a big box is a hot topic and before IKEA’s opening i Borlänge 2013, the first in Sweden in more than five years, great expectations were mixed with worry (Västerbottens-Kuriren 2011).The presence of large scale discount retailers is not, however, a novel phenomenon but a part of a long-term change in retailing that has taken place globally over the past couple of decades (Taylor & Smalling, 2005). As noted by Dawson (2006), the trend in Europe has over the past few decades gone towards an increasing concentration of large firms along with a decrease of smaller firms.This trend is also detectable in the Swedish retail industry. Over the past decade, the retailing industry in Sweden has increased by around 190 Billion SEK, and its share of GDP has risen from 2,7% to 2,9%, while the number of employees have increased from 200 000 to 250 000 (HUI 2013). This growth, however, has not been distributed evenly but rather it has been oriented mainly towards out-of-town retail clusters. Parallel to this development, the number of large retailers has risen at the expense of market shares of smaller independent firms (Rämme et al 2010). Thereby, the presence of large scale retailers is simply part of a changing retail landscape.The effects of this development, where large scale retailing agents relocate shopping to out-of-town shopping areas, have been heavily debated. On the one hand, the big-boxes are accused of displacing independent small retail businesses in the city-centers and the residential areas, resulting in, to some extent, reduced employment opportunities and less availability for the consumers - especially the elderly (Ljungberg et al 2006). In addition, as access to shopping now tends to require some sort of a motorized vehicle, environmental aspects to the discussion have emerged. Ultimately these types of concerns have resulted in calls for regulations against this development (Olsson 2010). On the other hand, the proponents of the new shopping landscape argue that this evolution implies productivity gains, the benefits of lower prices and an increased variety of products (Maican & Orth 2012). Moreover it is argued that it leads to, for instance, better services (such as longer opening hours) and a creative destruction transformation pressure on retailers, which brings about a renewal of city-centerIIretail and services, increasing their attractivity (Bergström 2010). The belief in benefits of a big box entry can be exemplified by the attractivity of IKEA, and the fact that municipalities are prepared to commit to expenses amounting up to hundreds of millions in order to attract the entry of this big-box. Borlänge municipality, for instance, agreed to expenses of about 350 million SEK in order to secure the entry of IKEA, which opened in 2013 (Blomgren 2009).Against this backdrop, the overall effects of large discount retailers become important: Are the economic benefits enough to warrant subsidies or are there, on the contrary, some very compelling grounds for regulations against these types of establishments? In other words; how is overall retail in a region where a store like IKEA enters affected? And how are local retail firms affected?In order to answer these questions, the purpose of this thesis is to study how entry of a big-box retailer affects the entry region. The object of this study is IKEA - one of the world’s largest retailers, with 345 stores, active in over 40 countries and with profits of about 3.3 billion (IKEA 2013; IKEA 2014). By studying the effects of IKEA-entry, both on an aggregated level and on firm level, this thesis intends to find indications of how large discount retail establishments in general can be expected to affect the economic development both in a region overall, but also on the local firm level, something which is of interest to both policymakers as well as the retailing industry in general.The first paper examines the effects of IKEA on retail revenues and employment in the municipalities that IKEA chose to enter between 2000 and 2011; Gothenburg, Haparanda, Kalmar and Karlstad. By means of a matching method we first identify non-entry municipalities that have a similar probability of IKEA entry as the true entry municipalities. Then, using these non-entry municipalities as a control group, the causal effects of IKEA entry can be estimated using a treatment-control approach. We also extend the analysis to examine the spatial impact of IKEA by estimating the effects on retail in neighboring municipalities. It is found that a new IKEA store increases revenues in durable goods trade with 20% in the entry municipality and the number of employees with 17%. Only small, and in most cases statistically insignificant, negative effects were found in neighboring municipalities.It appears that there is a positive net effect on durables retail sales and employment in the entry municipality. However, the analysis is based on data on an aggregated municipality level and thereby it remains unclear if and how the effects vary within the entry municipalities. In addition, the data used in the first study includes the sales and employment of IKEA itself, which could account for the majority of the increases in employment and retail. Thereby the potential spillover effects on incumbent retailers in the entry municipalities cannot be discerned in the first study.IIITo examine effects of IKEA entry on incumbent retail firms, the second paper in this thesis analyses how IKEA entry affects the revenues and employment of local retail firms in three municipalities; Haparanda, Kalmar and Karlstad, which experienced entry by IKEA between 2000 and 2010. In this second study, we exclude Gothenburg due to the fact that big-box entry appears to have weaker effects in metropolitan areas (as indicated by Artz & Stone 2006). By excluding Gothenburg we aim to reduce the geographical heterogeneity in our study. We obtain control municipalities that are as similar as possible to the three entry municipalities using the same method as in the previous study, but including a slightly different set of variables in the selection equation. Using similar retail firms in the control municipalities as our comparison group, we estimate the impact of IKEA entry on revenues and employment for retail firms located at varying distances from the IKEA entry site.The results generated in this study imply that entry by IKEA increases revenues in incumbent retail firms by, on average, 11% in the entry municipalities. In addition, we do not find any significant impact on retail revenues in the city centers of the entry municipalities. However, we do find that retail firms within 1 km of the IKEA experience increases in revenues of about 26%, which indicates large spillover effects in the area nearby the entry site. As expected, this impact decreases as we expand the buffer zone: firms located between 0-2 km experiences a 14% increase and firms in 2-5 km experiences an increase of 10%. We do not find any significant impacts on retail employment.

School leaders as agents of change : a case study on how two head teachers are trying to implement the learning study method in their school

This paper seeks to describe and discuss the impact of inspections of schools in Sweden. It outlines the political context, based on New Public Management (NPM) theory, according to what role the Schools Inspectorate is supposed to play in order to govern and control. Attention is also devoted, referring an on-going case study, to how inspections influence head teachers and their leadership in their everyday work.   Reports from the Schools inspectorate are public. This forces both politicians and head teachers to take measures. In this case, the head teachers perceived that the inspection reports confirmed what they already knew, but it also gave them an alibi and a tool to push their teachers to take part in everyday school development work. During the first year after the inspection the head teachers mainly strived to adjust formal deficiencies in local steering documents. However, some of the deviations reported from the Schools inspectorate are regarding pedagogical problems that are complicated and difficult to handle. As interventions in many cases will show up much later the results are, for example as increased goal fulfilment, in this case, still an open question. Nevertheless, it seems obvious that the Schools Inspectorate must be seen as a result of the governing philosophy that denotes New Public Management NPM).

The Emerging Civil Society in China and Its Impact on Democratization

Recent years have seen an emerging civil society in an authoritarian China. The authoritarian embrace of civil society challenges the conventional wisdom that civil society is closely linked to democracy. In Beijing, the rhetoric of civil society linked less to democracy than to modernization. However, does civil society development have any impact on democratization in authoritarian regimes? The thesis tries to provide a tentative answer by studying civil society and democratization in post-Mao China. As a result of economic development and political reforms, gradual political liberalization has marked a shift of state-society relations that gives rise to a certain degree of democratization and a growing civil society. The thesis uses a statistical correlation study to examine the relations between grassroots democratization and civil society development. The study concludes that civil society development may have contributed to democratization at the grassroots level but not on the national level. The impact of civil society on democratization depends on the political structure of the state and will remain limited unless the government allows for further state-led democratic openings.

A Spatial-Temporal Downscaling Approach To Construction Of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relations In The Context Of Climate Change

This paper proposes a spatial-temporal downscaling approach to construction of the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relations at a local site in the context of climate change and variability. More specifically, the proposed approach is based on a combination of a spatial downscaling method to link large-scale climate variables given by General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with daily extreme precipitations at a site and a temporal downscaling procedure to describe the relationships between daily and sub-daily extreme precipitations based on the scaling General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The feasibility and accuracy of the suggested method were assessed using rainfall data available at eight stations in Quebec (Canada) for the 1961-2000 period and climate simulations under four different climate change scenarios provided by the Canadian (CGCM3) and UK (HadCM3) GCM models. Results of this application have indicated that it is feasible to link sub-daily extreme rainfalls at a local site with large-scale GCM-based daily climate predictors for the construction of the IDF relations for present (1961-1990) and future (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) periods at a given site under different climate change scenarios. In addition, it was found that annual maximum rainfalls downscaled from the HadCM3 displayed a smaller change in the future, while those values estimated from the CGCM3 indicated a large increasing trend for future periods. This result has demonstrated the presence of high uncertainty in climate simulations provided by different GCMs. In summary, the proposed spatial-temporal downscaling method provided an essential tool for the estimation of extreme rainfalls that are required for various climate-related impact assessment studies for a given region.

The Impact of Domestic Politics and International Changes on the Brazilian Perception of Regional Integration

This article aims to analyze the impact of domestic politics and international changes that influence Brazilian positions regarding regional integration processes in South America, particularly the Southern Common Market, Mercosur. The dynamics of the international system and their impact on the evolution of the elite's perception of the role the country should play in the world are important variables for understanding these positions. The state's postures in relation to integration were and are based on a real interest, but this interest is also linked with the objective of ensuring better conditions for participation in other international arenas. Starting with the hypothesis that transformations in the international setting have strongly influenced Brazil's positioning, the elements of continuity and change in the country's behavior toward Mercosur are identified, with domestic politics as the main explanation.

Invasive Africanized honeybees change the structure of native pollination networks in Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The impact of soybean expansion on mammal and bird, in the Balsas region, north Brasilian Cerrado

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Impacts of Climate Change and the End of Deforestation on Land Use in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The acid-base impact of free water removal from, and addition to, plasma

Water, compared with plasma at a pH of 7.4, is a weak acid. The addition of free water to a patient should have an acidifying effect (dilutional acidosis) and the removal of it, an alkalinizing effect (concentrational alkalosis). The specific effects of free water loss or gain in a relatively complex fluid such as plasma has, to the authors' knowledge, not been reported. This information would be useful in the interpretation of the effect of changes in free water in patients. Plasma samples from goats were either evaporated in a tonometer to 80% of baseline volume or hydrated by the addition of distilled water to 120% of baseline volume. The pH and partial pressure of carbon dioxide, sodium, potassium, ionized calcium, chloride, lactate, phosphorous, albumin, and total protein concentrations were measured. Actual base excess (ABE), standard bicarbonate, anion gap, strong ion difference, strong ion gap, unmeasured anions, and the effects of sodium, chloride, phosphate, and albumin changes on ABE were calculated. Most parameters changed 20% in proportion to the magnitude of dehydration or hydration. Bicarbonate concentration, however, increased only 11% in the evaporation trial and decreased only -2% in the dehydration trial. The evaporation trial was associated with a mild, but significant, metabolic alkalotic effect (ABE increased 3.2 mM/L), whereas the hydration trial was associated with a slight, insignificant metabolic acidotic effect (ABE decreased only 0.6 mM/L). The calculated free water ABE effect (change in sodium concentration) was offset by opposite changes in calculated chloride, lactate, phosphate, and albumin ABE effects.

Homogeneity assessment of a station climate series (1933-2005) in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo: instruments change and urbanization effects

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Structural reforms, productivity and technological change in Latin America

Includes bibliography