Estimating trends and seasonality in coronary heart disease

We present two methods of estimating the trend, seasonality and noise in time series of coronary heart disease events. In contrast to previous work we use a non-linear trend, allow multiple seasonal components, and carefully examine the residuals from the fitted model. We show the importance of estimating these three aspects of the observed data to aid insight of the underlying process, although our major focus is on the seasonal components. For one method we allow the seasonal effects to vary over time and show how this helps the understanding of the association between coronary heart disease and varying temperature patterns. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Is the increase in coronary events on Mondays an artifact?

Background: The aim of this article was to investigate the size and possible causes of the reported excess in coronary events on Mondays. Methods: We conducted a metaanalysis of data from the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project, which monitored trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease. The MONICA Project was undertaken in 21 countries from 1980 to 1995. Results: We found a small overall excess rate of coronary events on Mondays. In a population experiencing 100 events per week, we estimate there would be approximately I more event on Monday than on any other day. Hierarchical logistic regression showed that the Monday excess was greater in centers with less thorough data collection procedures. Conclusions: The excess of coronary events on Mondays is probably an artifact resulting from events with uncertain dates being coded as taking place on Mondays.

Burden of disease and injury in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations in the Northern Territory

Objective: To quantify the burden of disease and injury for the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations in the Northern Territory. Design and setting: Analysis of Northern Territory data for 1 January 1994 to 30 December 1998 from multiple sources. Main outcome measures: Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age, sex, cause and Aboriginality. Results: Cardiovascular disease was the leading contributor (14.9%) to the total burden of disease and injury in the NT, followed by mental disorders (14.5%) and malignant neoplasms (11.2%). There was also a substantial contribution from unintentional injury (10.4%) and intentional injury (4.9%). Overall, the NT Aboriginal population had a rate of burden of disease 2.5 times higher than the non-Aboriginal population; in the 35-54-year age group their DALY rate was 4.1 times higher. The leading causes of disease burden were cardiovascular disease for both Aboriginal men (19.1%) and women (15.7%) and mental disorders for both non-Aboriginal men (16.7%) and women (22.3%). Conclusions: A comprehensive assessment of fatal and non-fatal conditions is important in describing differentials in health status of the NT population. Our study provides comparative data to identify health priorities and facilitate a more equitable distribution of health funding.

Effects of pravastatin on coronary events in 2073 patients with low levels of both low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol: results from the LIPID study

Aims Fibrates or nicotinic acid are usually recommended for secondary prevention of coronary heart disease in patients with low plasma levels of both low-density tipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) less than or equal to140 mg/dL (less than or equal to3.6 mmol/L) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) less than or equal to40 mg/dL (less than or equal to1.03 mmol/L). The LIPID trial, a randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 9014 patients at 87 centres in Australia and New Zealand, provided an opportunity to investigate the effects of an HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor in patients with tow LDL-C and tow HDL-C. Methods and results Participants in this post hoc substudy were 2073 patients aged 31-75 years with baseline LDL-C less than or equal to140 mg/dL (less than or equal to3.6 mmoL/L), HDL-C less than or equal to40 mg/dL (less than or equal to1.03 mmol/L), and triglyceride less than or equal to300 mg/dL (less than or equal to3.4 mmol/L). The relative risk reduction with pravastatin treatment was 27% for major coronary events (95% Cl 8-42%), 27% for coronary heart disease mortality (95% CI 0-47%), 21% for all-cause mortality (95% Cl 0-38%), and 51% for stroke (95% CI 24-69%). The number needed to treat to prevent a major coronary event over 6 years was 22. Conclusions Treatment with pravastatin in patients with both low LDL-C and low HDL-C significantly reduced major coronary events, stroke, and all-cause mortality. The level of HDL-C is crucial to the risk of recurrent CHD events and, consequently, the benefit of lowering LDL-C. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The European Society of Cardiology.

Determinants of subclinical diabetic heart disease

Aims/hypothesis: Subclinical left ventricular (LV) dysfunction has been shown by tissue Doppler and strain imaging in diabetic patients in the absence of coronary disease or LV hypertrophy, but the prevalence and aetiology of this finding remain unclear. This study sought to identify the prevalence and the determinants of subclinical diabetic heart disease. Methods: A group of 219 unselected patients with type 2 diabetes without known cardiac disease underwent resting and stress echocardiography. After exclusion of coronary artery disease or LV hypertrophy, the remaining 120 patients ( age 57 +/- 10 years, 73 male) were studied with tissue Doppler imaging. Peak systolic strain of each wall and systolic (Sm) and diastolic ( Em) velocity of each basal segment were measured from the three apical views and averaged for each patient. Significant subclinical LV dysfunction was identified according to Sm and Em normal ranges adjusted by age and sex. Strain and Em were correlated with clinical, therapeutic, echocardiographic and biochemical variables, and significant independent associations were sought using a multiple linear regressionmodel. Results: Significant subclinical LV dysfunction was present in 27% diabetic patients. Myocardial systolic dysfunction by peak strain was independently associated with glycosylated haemoglobin level ( p< 0.001) and lack of angiotensin- converting enzyme inhibitor treatment ( p= 0.003). Myocardial diastolic function ( Em) was independently predicted by age ( p= 0.013), hypertension ( p= 0.001), insulin ( p= 0.008) and metformin ( p= 0.01) treatment. Conclusions/ interpretation: In patients with diabetes mellitus, subclinical LV dysfunction is common and associated with poor diabetic control, advancing age, hypertension and metformin treatment; ACE inhibitor and insulin therapies appear to be protective.

Urinary albumin levels in the normal range determine arterial wall thickness in adults with Type 2 diabetes: a FIELD substudy

Aim Cardiovascular disease (CVD) rates are substantially higher among patients with Type 2 diabetes than in the general population. The objective of this study was to identify the determinants of carotid intima media thickness (IMT) in patients with Type 2 diabetes. Methods We measured the thickness of the intima media layer of the carotid artery, a strong predictor of the risk of future vascular events, in 397 Type 2 diabetic patients drawn from the Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes study, prior to treatment allocation. Results The mean IMT was 0.78 mm [interquartile range (IQR) 0.23 mm], and the maximum IMT was 1.17 mm (IQR 0.36 mm). By multivariate analysis, age, sex, duration of diabetes, triglycerides, and total cholesterol were independently correlated with IMT, as was urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) (P < 0.001). The effect of ACR on IMT was further examined by tertile. Clinically significant differences in IMT were associated with ACR > 0.65 mg/mmol, approximately one-fifth the standard clinical threshold for microalbuminuria (P < 0.01). Long-term diabetes, independent of other parameters, was associated with a 50% increase in age-related thickening. Conclusions IMT in people with Type 2 diabetes is independently and continuously related to urine albumin levels and to the duration of diabetes. These results support previous data linking urine albumin measurements within the normal range with increased ischaemic cardiac mortality in the setting of Type 2 diabetes, and strongly suggest that urine albumin levels within this range should trigger a formal evaluation for CVD.

Rethinking the "diseases of affluence" paradigm: Global patterns of nutritional risks in relation to economic development

Background Cardiovascular diseases and their nutritional risk factors-including overweight and obesity, elevated blood pressure, and cholesterol-are among the leading causes of global mortality and morbidity, and have been predicted to rise with economic development. Methods and Findings We examined age-standardized mean population levels of body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol in relation to national income, food share of household expenditure, and urbanization in a cross-country analysis. Data were from a total of over 100 countries and were obtained from systematic reviews of published literature, and from national and international health agencies. BMI and cholesterol increased rapidly in relation to national income, then flattened, and eventually declined. BMI increased most rapidly until an income of about I$5,000 (international dollars) and peaked at about I$12,500 for females and I$17,000 for males. Cholesterol's point of inflection and peak were at higher income levels than those of BMI (about I$8,000 and I$18,000, respectively). There was an inverse relationship between BMI/cholesterol and the food share of household expenditure, and a positive relationship with proportion of population in urban areas. Mean population blood pressure was not correlated or only weakly correlated with the economic factors considered, or with cholesterol and BMI. Conclusions When considered together with evidence on shifts in income-risk relationships within developed countries, the results indicate that cardiovascular disease risks are expected to systematically shift to low-income and middle-income countries and, together with the persistent burden of infectious diseases, further increase global health inequalities. Preventing obesity should be a priority from early stages of economic development, accompanied by population-level and personal interventions for blood pressure and cholesterol.

Cold periods and coronary events: an analysis of populations worldwide

Study objective: To investigate the association between cold periods and coronary events, and the extent to which climate, sex, age, and previous cardiac history increase risk during cold weather. Design: A hierarchical analyses of populations from the World Health Organisation's MONICA project. Setting: Twenty four populations from the WHO's MONICA project, a 21 country register made between 1980 and 1995. Patients: People aged 35 - 64 years who had a coronary event. Main results: Daily rates of coronary events were correlated with the average temperature over the current and previous three days. In cold periods, coronary event rates increased more in populations living in warm climates than in populations living in cold climates, where the increases were slight. The increase was greater in women than in men, especially in warm climates. On average, the odds for women having an event in the cold periods were 1.07 higher than the odds for men (95% posterior interval: 1.03 to 1.11). The effects of cold periods were similar in those with and without a history of a previous myocardial infarction. Conclusions: Rates of coronary events increased during comparatively cold periods, especially in warm climates. The smaller increases in colder climates suggest that some events in warmer climates are preventable. It is suggested that people living in warm climates, particularly women, should keep warm on cold days.

Berberine - a novel approach to cholesterol lowering

Although low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol lowering with the statins reduces the mortality and morbidity associated with coronary artery disease, considerable mortality and morbidity remains. Berberine upregulates the LDL receptor (LDLR) by a mechanism distinct from that of the statins, which involves stabilising the LDLR mRNA. In hamsters fed a high-fat and high-cholesterol diet for 2 weeks, the oral administration of berberine 100 mg/kg for 10 days reduced total serum cholesterol from &SIM; 4.8 to 2.7 mmol/l, and LDL-cholesterol from &SIM; 2.5 to 1.4 mmol/l. In subjects with hypercholesterolaemia, berberine hydrochloride (0.5 g b.i.d. for 3 months) reduced LDL-cholesterol (from 3.2 to 2.4 mmol/l) without any effect on high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol. Berberine also caused a reduction in triglyceride levels from 2.3 to 1.5 mmol/l. As berberine and statins both upregulate LDLR, their lipid-lowering profiles are similar. Thus, this mechanism is unlikely to make berberine an attractive alternative to statins for lipid lowering in most circumstances. However, the other effects of berberine (anti hypertensive, inotropic and class III antiarrhythmic properties) may make it a useful agent in the treatment of cardiovascular disease.

A simple lifestyle score predicts survival in healthy elderly men

Background. Although improvements in life expectancy have been attributed in part to the adoption or a more prudent lifestyle, few studies have examined the association of lifestyle with survival, using several lifestyle factors simultaneously, in a healthy elderly population. Methods. We investigated the association of health related behaviors with mortality in 7989 men aged 65 to 83 years participating in a population-based trial in Perth, Western Australia, by calculating a lifestyle score as a simple tally of flow many or eight prudent behaviors each individual followed. Results. Invitations to screening produced a corrected response of 70.5%. Out of a possible score of 8.46% of men had a score of less than 5. Within 5 years, a total of 703 men (9%) had died from any cause. The hazard ratio in men with a low lifestyle score was 1.3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-1.5] compared with men with a score of 5 or more. Conclusions. Lifestyle remains an important predictor of mortality even in old age. Survival in older men without a history of cardiovascular disease can potentially be enhanced by promoting a healthy lifestyle. © 2004 Elsevier Inc, All rights reserved.

Effect on trend estimates of the difference between survey respondents and non-respondents: Results from 27 populations in the WHO MONIICA Project

Introduction: In the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA (multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) Project considerable effort was made to obtain basic data on non-respondents to community based surveys of cardiovascular risk factors. The first purpose of this paper is to examine differences in socio-economic and health profiles among respondents and non-respondents. The second purpose is to investigate the effect of non-response on estimates of trends. Methods:Socio-economic and health profile between respondents and non-respondents in the WHO MONICA Project final survey were compared. The potential effect of non-response on the trend estimates between the initial survey and final survey approximately ten years later was investigated using both MONICA data and hypothetical data. Results: In most of the populations, non-respondents were more likely to be single, less well educated, and had poorer lifestyles and health profiles than respondents. As an example of the consequences, temporal trends in prevalence of daily smokers are shown to be overestimated in most populations if they were based only on data from respondents. Conclusions: The socio-economic and health profiles of respondents and non-respondents differed fairly consistently across 27 populations. Hence, the estimators of population trends based on respondent data are likely to be biased. Declining response rates therefore pose a threat to the accuracy of estimates of risk factor trends in many countries.

Kidney and related chronic disease profiles and risk factors in three remote Australian Aboriginal communities

Morbidities and deaths from noncommunicable chronic diseases are greatly increased in remote Australian Aboriginal communities, but little is known of the underlying community-based health profiles. We describe chronic-disease profiles and their risk factors in 3 remote communities in the Northern Territory. Consenting adults (18+ years of age) in 3 communities participated in a brief history and examination between 2000 and mid-2003 as part of a systematic program to improve chronic-disease awareness and management. Participation was 67%,128%, and 62% in communities A, B, and C, respectively with a total of 1070 people examined. Current smokers included 41% of females and 72% of males. Most men were current drinkers, but most women were not. Parameters of body weight differed markedly by community, with mean body mass index (BMC) varying from 21.4 to 27.9 kg/m(2). Rates of chronic diseases were excessive but differed markedly; an almost threefold difference in the likelihood of any morbidity existed between communities A and C. Rates increased with age, but the greatest numbers of people with morbidities were in the middle-aged group. Most people had multiple morbidities with tremendous overlap. Hypertension and kidney disease appear to be early manifestations of the integrated chronic-disease syndrome, while diabetes is a late manifestation or complication. Substantial numbers of new cases of disease were identified by testing, and blood pressure improved in treated people with hypertension. Wide variations occur in body habitus, risk factors, and chronic-disease rates among communities, but an overwhelming need for effective smoking interventions exists in all. Systematic screening is useful in identifying high-risk individuals, most at early treatable stages there. Findings are very important for estimating current treatment needs, future burdens of disease, and for needs-based health services planning. Resources required will vary according to the burden of disease. (C) 2005 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.

Orphan nuclear receptors: therapeutic opportunities in skeletal muscle

Orphan nuclear receptors: therapeutic opportunities in skeletal muscle. Am J Physiol Cell Physiol 291: C203-C217, 2006; doi: 10.1152/ajpcell. 00476.2005.-Nuclear hormone receptors (NRs) are ligand-dependent transcription factors that bind DNA and translate physiological signals into gene regulation. The therapeutic utility of NRs is underscored by the diversity of drugs created to manage dysfunctional hormone signaling in the context of reproductive biology, inflammation, dermatology, cancer, and metabolic disease. For example, drugs that target nuclear receptors generate over $10 billion in annual sales. Almost two decades ago, gene products were identified that belonged to the NR superfamily on the basis of DNA and protein sequence identity. However, the endogenous and synthetic small molecules that modulate their action were not known, and they were denoted orphan NRs. Many of the remaining orphan NRs are highly enriched in energy-demanding major mass tissues, including skeletal muscle, brown and white adipose, brain, liver, and kidney. This review focuses on recently adopted and orphan NR function in skeletal muscle, a tissue that accounts for similar to 35% of the total body mass and energy expenditure, and is a major site of fatty acid and glucose utilization. Moreover, this lean tissue is involved in cholesterol efflux and secretes that control energy expenditure and adiposity. Consequently, muscle has a significant role in insulin sensitivity, the blood lipid profile, and energy balance. Accordingly, skeletal muscle plays a considerable role in the progression of dyslipidemia, diabetes, and obesity. These are risk factors for cardiovascular disease, which is the the foremost cause of global mortality (> 16.7 million deaths in 2003). Therefore, it is not surprising that orphan NRs and skeletal muscle are emerging as therapeutic candidates in the battle against dyslipidemia, diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease.

Ultra-endurance exercise and oxidative damage: Implications for cardiovascular health

At least 30 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity accumulated on most, preferably all days is considered the minimum level necessary to reduce the risk of developing cardiovascular disease. Despite an unclear explanation, some epidemiological data paradoxically suggest that a very high volume of exercise is associated with a decrease in cardiovascular health. Although ultra-endurance exercise training has been shown to increase antioxidant defences (and therefore confer a protective effect against oxidative stress), an increase in oxidative stress may contribute to the development of atherosclerosis via oxidative modification of low-density lipoprotein (LDL). Research has also shown that ultra-endurance exercise is associated with acute cardiac dysfunction and injury, and these may also be related to an increase in free radical production. Longitudinal studies are needed to assess whether antioxidant defences are adequate to prevent LDL oxidation that may occur as a result of increased free radical production during very high volumes of exercise. In addition, this work will assist in understanding the accrued effect of repeated ultra-endurance exercise-induced myocardial damage.

Using epidemiological models to estimate the health effects of diet behaviour change: the example of tailored fruit and vegetable promotion

Objective: To explore the use of epidemiological modelling for the estimation of health effects of behaviour change interventions, using the example of computer-tailored nutrition education aimed at fruit and vegetable consumption in The Netherlands. Design: The effects of the intervention on changes in consumption were obtained from an earlier evaluation study. The effect on health outcomes was estimated using an epidemiological multi-state life table model. input data for the model consisted of relative risk estimates for cardiovascular disease and cancers, data on disease occurrence and mortality, and survey data on the consumption of fruits and vegetables. Results: if the computer-tailored nutrition education reached the entire adult population and the effects were sustained, it could result in a mortality decrease of 0.4 to 0.7% and save 72 to 115 life-years per 100000 persons aged 25 years or older. Healthy life expectancy is estimated to increase by 32.7 days for men and 25.3 days for women. The true effect is likely to lie between this theoretical maximum and zero effect, depending mostly on durability of behaviour change and reach of the intervention. Conclusion: Epidemiological models can be used to estimate the health impact of health promotion interventions.