A Study on the Reversed Lack of Memory Property and its Generalizations

In this thesis, the concept of reversed lack of memory property and its generalizations is studied.We we generalize this property which involves operations different than the ”addition”. In particular an associative, binary operator ” * ” is considered. The univariate reversed lack of memory property is generalized using the binary operator and a class of probability distributions which include Type 3 extreme value, power function, reflected Weibull and negative Pareto distributions are characterized (Asha and Rejeesh (2009)). We also define the almost reversed lack of memory property and considered the distributions with reversed periodic hazard rate under the binary operation. Further, we give a bivariate extension of the generalized reversed lack of memory property and characterize a class of bivariate distributions which include the characterized extension (CE) model of Roy (2002a) apart from the bivariate reflected Weibull and power function distributions. We proved the equality of local proportionality of the reversed hazard rate and generalized reversed lack of memory property. Study of uncertainty is a subject of interest common to reliability, survival analysis, actuary, economics, business and many other fields. However, in many realistic situations, uncertainty is not necessarily related to the future but can also refer to the past. Recently, Di Crescenzo and Longobardi (2009) introduced a new measure of information called dynamic cumulative entropy. Dynamic cumulative entropy is suitable to measure information when uncertainty is related to the past, a dual concept of the cumulative residual entropy which relates to uncertainty of the future lifetime of a system. We redefine this measure in the whole real line and study its properties. We also discuss the implications of generalized reversed lack of memory property on dynamic cumulative entropy and past entropy.In this study, we extend the idea of reversed lack of memory property to the discrete set up. Here we investigate the discrete class of distributions characterized by the discrete reversed lack of memory property. The concept is extended to the bivariate case and bivariate distributions characterized by this property are also presented. The implication of this property on discrete reversed hazard rate, mean past life, and discrete past entropy are also investigated.

Effect of Gender-role Orientations and Communication Styles on Executive Performance

Biosocial profile can produce variations in Gender-role Orientation of executives. Biosocial variables are not responsible for the development of Communication Style except in cases of number of children, dual career family and fathers occupation. Gender-role orientation is a function of Communication Style. Executive performance is a function of Communication Style.Gender- role orientation can have a decisive influence on executive performance. The cumulative effect of Communication Style and gender role orientation can produce variations in executive performance. Open Communication Style is predominantly responsible for the creation of a higher level executive performance than other Communication Styles.

Assessment of trophic change and its probable impact on tropical estuarine environment (the Kodungallur-Azhikode estuary, India)

The cumulative effects of global change, including climate change, increased population density and domestic waste disposal, effluent discharges from industrial processes, agriculture and aquaculture will likely continue and increases the process of eutrophication in estuarine environments. Eutrophication is one of the leading causes of degraded water quality, water column hypoxia/anoxia, harmful algal bloom (HAB) and loss of habitat and species diversity in the estuarine environment. The present study attempts to characterize the trophic condition of coastal estuary using a simple tool; trophic index (TRIX) based on a linear combination of the log of four state variables with supplementary index Efficiency Coefficient (Eff. Coeff.) as a discriminating tool. Numerically, the index TRIX is scaled from 0 to10, covering a wide range of trophic conditions from oligotrophic to eutrophic. Study area Kodungallur-Azhikode Estuary (KAE) was comparatively shallow in nature with average depth of 3.6±0.2 m. Dissolve oxygen regime in the water column was ranged from 4.7±1.3 mgL−1 in Station I to 5.9±1.4 mgL−1 in Station IV. The average nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) of KAE water was 470 mg m−3; values ranged from Av. 364.4 mg m−3 at Station II to Av. 626.6 mg m−3at Station VII. The mean ammonium-nitrogen (NH4 +-N) varied from 54.1 mg m−3 at Station VII to 101 mg m−3 at Station III. The average Chl-a for the seven stations of KAE was 6.42±3.91 mg m−3. Comparisons over different spatial and temporal scales in the KAE and study observed that, estuary experiencing high productivity by the influence of high degree of eutrophication; an annual average of 6.91 TRIX was noticed in the KAE and seasonal highest was observed during pre monsoon period (7.15) and lowest during post monsoon period (6.51). In the spatial scale station V showed high value 7.37 and comparatively low values in the station VI (6.93) and station VII (6.96) and which indicates eutrophication was predominant in land cover area with comparatively high water residence time. Eff. Coeff. values in the KAE ranges from −2.74 during monsoon period to the lowest of −1.98 in pre monsoon period. Present study revealed that trophic state of the estuary under severe stress and the restriction of autochthonous and allochthonous nutrient loading should be keystone in mitigate from eutrophication process

Changes in amino acid enantiomers and microbial performance in soils from a subtropical mountain oasis in Oman abandoned for different periods

An important feature of maintaining the agricultural stability in millennia-old mountain oases of northern Oman is the temporary abandonment of terraces. To analyse the effects of a fallow period on soil microbial performance, i.e. microbial activity and microbial biomass, samples of eight terrace soils abandoned for different periods were collected in situ, assigned to four fallow age classes and incubated for 30 days in the laboratory after rewetting. The younger fallow age classes of 1 and 5 years were based on the records of the farmers’ recollections, the two older fallow age classes of 10–20 and 25–60 years according to the increase in the D -to- L ratio of valine and leucine enantiomers. The increase in these two ratios was in agreement with that of the D -to- L ratio of lysine. The strongest relationship was observed between the increase in the D -to- L ratio of lysine and the decrease in soil microbial biomass C. However, the most stringent coherence between the increase in fallow age and soil properties was revealed by the decreases in cumulative respiration and net N mineralisation rates with decreasing availability of substrate to soil microorganisms. During the 30-day incubation following rewetting, relative changes in microbial activity (respiration and net N mineralisation) and microbial biomass (C and N)indices were similar in the eight terrace soils on a fallow age-class-specific level, indicating that the same basic processes occurred in all of the sandy terrace soils investigated.

Prognosemethode für das Schutzgut ‚Landschaft’ im Rahmen der Strategischen Umweltprüfung

Im Mittelpunkt der Dissertation stehen das Schutzgut ‚Landschaft’ sowie ‚Prognosemethoden in der Umweltprüfung’. Mit beiden Themenbereichen verbinden sich bereits heute ungelöste methodische Probleme, die mit der Umsetzung der Richtlinie zur Strategischen Umweltprüfung (SUP) zusätzlich komplexer und deren Lösung mithin anspruchsvoller werden. Dies hängt einerseits damit zusammen, dass eine gesetzeskonforme Gleichbehandlung aller Schutzgüter zunehmend eingefordert wird und gerade das Schutzgut ‚Landschaft’ in einer SUP methodisch besondere Aufmerksamkeit verlangt. Zum anderen führt die gängige planungsmethodische Diskussion allein nicht zu geeigneten Antworten auf o.g. Fragen, und es bedarf der Prüfung verschiedener Methodenbausteine, auch aus anderen Wissensgebieten, um – über ein eindimensionales Landschaftsverständnis einerseits und die bisher bekannten linearen Wirkungsprognosen andererseits hinaus gehend – mehrfach verknüpfte Prognoseschritte zur Anwendung in der SUP zu entwickeln, in denen das Schutzgut ‚Landschaft’ modellhaft für Bewertungsschritte nachvollziehbar abgebildet wird. Hierbei müssen entscheidungsrelevante Prognosezeiträume ebenso beachtet werden, wie in diesen Zeiträumen möglicherweise auftretende sekundäre, kumulative, synergetische, positive und negative Auswirkungen der zu beurteilenden Planung. Dieser Ziel- und Aufgabenstellung entsprechend erfolgt die theoretische Herangehensweise der Arbeit von zwei Seiten: 1. Die Funktionen und Stellung von Prognosen innerhalb der SUP wird erläutert (Kap. 2), und es wird der Frage nachgegangen, welche Anforderungen an Prognosemethoden zu stellen sind (Kap. 2.4) und welche Prognosemethoden in der SUP Verwendung finden bzw. finden können (Kap. 3). Der Schwerpunkt wird dabei auf die Anwendung der Szenariotechnik gelegt. 2. Es wird dargestellt wie Landschaft für Aufgaben der Landschaftsplanung und Umweltprüfung bisher üblicherweise erfasst und analysiert wird, um in Prognoseschritten handhabbar behandelt zu werden (Kap. 4). Beide Zugänge werden sodann zusammengeführt (Kap. 5), um am Beispiel einer Hochwasserschutzkonzeption im Rahmen der SUP Landschaftliche Prognosen zu erarbeiten. Die Prognose setzt methodisch mit der Beschreibung des zu verwendenden Landschaftsmodells und der Klärung des Modellzwecks ein. Bezugsbasis ist die Beschreibung des Charakters einzelner logisch hergeleiteter Landschaftseinheiten bzw. Landschaftsräume, die typisiert werden. Die Prognose selber unterscheidet zwischen der Abschätzung zu erwartender Landschaftsveränderungen im Sinne der ‚Status-quo-Prognose’ (einschließlich der Entwicklung von drei Szenarien möglicher Zukunftslandschaften bis 2030) und der Wirkungsabschätzungen verschiedener Maßnahmen bzw. Planungsalternativen und zwar zunächst raumunabhängig, und dann raumkonkret. Besondere Bedeutung bei den Wirkungsabschätzungen erhält die klare Trennung von Sach- und Wertebene, eine angemessene Visualisierung und die Dokumentation von Informationslücken und Unsicherheiten bei der Prognose. Diskutiert wird u.a. (Kap. 6) · die Bildung und Abgrenzung landschaftlicher Einheiten und Typen in Bezug zu der Aufgabe, landschaftliche Eigenart zu definieren und planerisch handhabbar und anwendbar zu bestimmen, · die Bedeutung angemessener Visualisierung zur Unterstützung von Beteiligungsverfahren und · die Bestimmung des so genannten ‚Raumwiderstandes’. Beigefügt sind zwei Karten des gesamten Bearbeitungsgebietes: Karte 1 „Landschaftstypen“, Karte 2 „Maßnahmentypen des Hochwasserschutzes mit möglichen Synergieeffekten für die Landschaft“.

Salinity-induced changes in the microbial use of sugarcane filter cake added to soil

Five laboratory incubation experiments were carried out to assess the salinity-induced changes in the microbial use of sugarcane filter cake added to soil. The first laboratory experiment was carried out to prove the hypothesis that the lower content of fungal biomass in a saline soil reduces the decomposition of a complex organic substrate in comparison to a non-saline soil under acidic conditions. Three different rates (0.5, 1.0, and 2.0%) of sugarcane filter cake were added to both soils and incubated for 63 days at 30°C. In the saline control soil without amendment, cumulative CO2 production was 70% greater than in the corresponding non-saline control soil, but the formation of inorganic N did not differ between these two soils. However, nitrification was inhibited in the saline soil. The increase in cumulative CO2 production by adding filter cake was similar in both soils, corresponding to 29% of the filter cake C at all three addition rates. Also the increases in microbial biomass C and biomass N were linearly related to the amount of filter cake added, but this increase was slightly higher for both properties in the saline soil. In contrast to microbial biomass, the absolute increase in ergosterol content in the saline soil was on average only half that in the non-saline soil and it showed also strong temporal changes during the incubation: A strong initial increase after adding the filter cake was followed by a rapid decline. The addition of filter cake led to immobilisation of inorganic N in both soils. This immobilisation was not expected, because the total C-to-total N ratio of the filter cake was below 13 and the organic C-to-organic N ratio in the 0.5 M K2SO4 extract of this material was even lower at 9.2. The immobilisation was considerably higher in the saline soil than in the non-saline soil. The N immobilisation capacity of sugarcane filter cake should be considered when this material is applied to arable sites at high rations. The second incubation experiment was carried out to examine the N immobilizing effect of sugarcane filter cake (C/N ratio of 12.4) and to investigate whether mixing it with compost (C/N ratio of 10.5) has any synergistic effects on C and N mineralization after incorporation into the soil. Approximately 19% of the compost C added and 37% of the filter cake C were evolved as CO2, assuming that the amendments had no effects on the decomposition of soil organic C. However, only 28% of the added filter cake was lost according to the total C and d13C values. Filter cake and compost contained initially significant concentrations of inorganic N, which was nearly completely immobilized between day 7 and 14 of the incubation in most cases. After day 14, N re-mineralization occurred at an average rate of 0.73 µg N g-1 soil d-1 in most amendment treatments, paralleling the N mineralization rate of the non-amended control without significant difference. No significant net N mineralization from the amendment N occurred in any of the amendment treatments in comparison to the control. The addition of compost and filter cake resulted in a linear increase in microbial biomass C with increasing amounts of C added. This increase was not affected by differences in substrate quality, especially the three times larger content of K2SO4 extractable organic C in the sugarcane filter cake. In most amendment treatments, microbial biomass C and biomass N increased until the end of the incubation. No synergistic effects could be observed in the mixture treatments of compost and sugarcane filter cake. The third 42-day incubation experiment was conducted to answer the questions whether the decomposition of sugarcane filter cake also result in immobilization of nitrogen in a saline alkaline soil and whether the mixing of sugarcane filter cake with glucose (adjusted to a C/N ratio of 12.5 with (NH4)2SO4) change its decomposition. The relative percentage CO2 evolved increased from 35% of the added C in the pure 0.5% filter cake treatment to 41% in the 0.5% filter cake +0.25% glucose treatment to 48% in the 0.5% filter cake +0.5% glucose treatment. The three different amendment treatments led to immediate increases in microbial biomass C and biomass N within 6 h that persisted only in the pure filter cake treatment until the end of the incubation. The fungal cell-membrane component ergosterol showed initially an over-proportionate increase in relation to microbial biomass C that fully disappeared at the end of the incubation. The cellulase activity showed a 5-fold increase after filter cake addition, which was not further increased by the additional glucose amendment. The cellulase activity showed an exponential decline to values around 4% of the initial value in all treatments. The amount of inorganic N immobilized from day 0 to day 14 increased with increasing amount of C added in comparison to the control treatment. Since day 14, the immobilized N was re-mineralized at rates between 1.31 and 1.51 µg N g-1 soil d-1 in the amendment treatments and was thus more than doubled in comparison with the control treatment. This means that the re-mineralization rate is independent from the actual size of the microbial residues pool and also independent from the size of the soil microbial biomass. Other unknown soil properties seem to form a soil-specific gate for the release of inorganic N. The fourth incubation experiment was carried out with the objective of assessing the effects of salt additions containing different anions (Cl-, SO42-, HCO3-) on the microbial use of sugarcane filter cake and dhancha leaves amended to inoculated sterile quartz sand. In the subsequent fifth experiment, the objective was to assess the effects of inoculum and temperature on the decomposition of sugar cane filter cake. In the fourth experiment, sugarcane filter cake led to significantly lower respiration rates, lower contents of extractable C and N, and lower contents of microbial biomass C and N than dhancha leaves, but to a higher respiratory quotient RQ and to a higher content of the fungal biomarker ergosterol. The RQ was significantly increased after salt addition, when comparing the average of all salinity treatments with the control. Differences in anion composition had no clear effects on the RQ values. In experiment 2, the rise in temperature from 20 to 40°C increased the CO2 production rate by a factor of 1.6, the O2 consumption rate by a factor of 1.9 and the ergosterol content by 60%. In contrast, the contents of microbial biomass N decreased by 60% and the RQ by 13%. The effects of the inoculation with a saline soil were in most cases negative and did not indicate a better adaptation of these organisms to salinity. The general effects of anion composition on microbial biomass and activity indices were small and inconsistent. Only the fraction of 0.5 M K2SO4 extractable C and N in non-fumigated soil was consistently increased in the 1.2 M NaHCO3 treatment of both experiments. In contrast to the small salinity effects, the quality of the substrate has overwhelming effects on microbial biomass and activity indices, especially on the fungal part of the microbial community.

Segregation unter Stagnationsbedingungen

Anlass der Untersuchung sind Verstärkungen von strukturwandel- und globalisierungsbedingten Wandlungen unter Schrumpfungs- und Stagnationsbedingungen. Denn Stagnations- und Schrumpfungstendenzen in einer Region sind selektiv, sie begünstigen über verschiedene Mechanismen Polarisierungen und Marginalisierungen: Die allgemeine Entspannung am Wohnungsmarkt hat erhöhte Mobilität und damit sozialräumliche Segregierungen und Polarisierungen der Wohnungsversorgung zur Folge. Leerstände und ausbleibende Investitionen begünstigen Polarisierungen von baulich-räumlichen Qualitäten. Diese beiden Entwicklungen überlagern sich im Stadtraum und verstärken sich gegenseitig. Dabei verbessert sich die Wohnungsversorgung in den benachteiligten Quartieren kaum, so die Ausgangshypothesen. Die Untersuchung fragt nach den Wirkungen des Nebeneinanders von Wachstums-, Stagnations- und Schrumpfungserscheinungen auf unterschiedlichen Maßstabsebenen, dem Zusammenspiel von sozialstrukturellen und qualitativen Veränderungen der baulich-räumlichen Gegebenheiten in den Quartieren sowie in innerstädtischer Differenzierung. Dabei interessieren besonders die Einflüsse eines regional entspannten Wohnungsmarktes und dessen Folgen für die Verwertungsstrategien im Wohnungsbestand auf Segregationsprozesse und die Wohnungsversorgung. Als Fallbeispiel der Untersuchung dient die Stadt Kassel. Der sozialräumliche Fokus liegt auf drei Typen benachteiligter Quartiere: Neben den in der aktuellen Diskussion zumeist betrachteten gründerzeitlichen Arbeiterquartieren und den Großsiedlungen der 1960/70er Jahre wurden auch die peripheren Geschosswohnungsbausiedlungen der 1950er/60er Jahre in die Untersuchung einbezogen, um den unterschiedlichen Rahmenbedingungen und Wirkungen in den Quartierstypen auf die Spur zu kommen und damit letztlich Grundlagen für stadtentwicklungspolitische Strategien zu erarbeiten. Die kleinräumigen Analysen von sozialräumlicher und baulich-räumlicher Struktur sowie zur Wohnungsversorgung deckten Parallelen und gegenläufige Entwicklungen zwischen den unterschiedlichen Quartierstypen auf; es ergaben sich verschiedene Anhaltspunkte zur Erhärtung der Ausgangsthesen. So wurde z.B. deutlich, dass sich unter den Marktbedingungen stagnierender Städte die Wohnflächenversorgung in den benachteiligten Quartieren kaum verbessert. Hierin zeigt sich ein entscheidender Unterschied zu stark schrumpfenden Städten, in denen sich die Versorgungslage (fast) durchgängig verbessert. Wohnungsmarktbarrieren wirken offensichtlich unter Stagnationsbedingungen für bestimmte Bevölkerungsgruppen weiter. Da sich ihre Wirkung aber für weitere Kreise der Bevölkerung abschwächt, verschärfen sich sozialräumliche Konzentrationen. Vor allem aber wurden Überlagerung und gegenseitige Verstärkung dieser sozialräumlichen mit baulich-räumlichen Polarisierungen deutlich, die vor allem aus stadträumlich konzentrierten Investitionen in den Gebäude- und Wohnungsbestand resultieren. Letztlich zeigt sich damit, dass regulierende Eingriffe nicht nur im Rahmen des Umbaus und der Erneuerung der Quartiere erforderlich sind, sondern insbesondere auch in den Wohnungsmarkt und dies auch bei entspannter regionaler Marktlage. Andernfalls ist weder eine angemessene Wohnungsversorgung aller Bevölkerungsgruppen noch der Zusammenhalt der Stadt(Gesellschaft) zu gewährleisten. Dabei ist die Stadtpolitik permanent mit der Gleichzeitigkeit von (wirtschaftlicher) Standortpolitik und sozialer Stadtentwicklung konfrontiert, die sie im Sinne einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung gegeneinander und miteinander abwägen muss.

Untersuchungen zu kumulativen psychischen und physiologischen Effekten des fliegenden Personals auf der Kurzstrecke

Die fliegerische Tätigkeit auf der Kurzstrecke in der zivilen Luftfahrt unterliegt arbeitsspezifischen Belastungsfaktoren, die sich in wesentlichen Punkten von denen auf der Langstrecke unterscheiden. Eine hohe Arbeitsbelastung auf der Kurzstrecke ist mit vielen Starts und Landungen am Tag verbunden. Neben der Anzahl der Flugabschnitte können auch lange Flugdienstzeiten und/oder unregelmäßige Arbeitszeiten sowie der Zeitdruck während der Einsätze auf der Kurzstrecke zur Belastung für Cockpitbesatzungsmitglieder werden und zu Ermüdungserscheinungen führen. Bisher wurden flugmedizinische und -psychologische Daten hauptsächlich auf der Langstrecke in Bezug auf die Auswirkungen der Jet-Leg Symptomatik und kaum auf der Kurzstrecke erhoben. Deshalb wurde im Rahmen des DLR- Projekts „Untersuchungen zu kumulativen psychischen und physiologischen Effekten des fliegenden Personals auf der Kurzstrecke“ eine Langzeituntersuchung zur Belastung/Beanspruchung, Ermüdung sowie Erholung des Cockpitpersonals auf der Kurzstrecke über jeweils 56 Tage durchgeführt. In Zusammenarbeit mit der Deutschen Lufthansa AG dauerte die Untersuchung zu den Auswirkungen arbeitsspezifischer Belastungsfaktoren auf die Cockpitbesatzungsmitglieder der Boeing 737-Flotte von 2003 bis 2006. ZIEL: Unter Berücksichtigung theoretisch fundierter arbeitspsychologischer Konzepte war das Ziel der Studie, kumulative und akute Effekte auf das Schlaf-Wach-Verhalten, auf die Belastung/Beanspruchung sowie auf die Müdigkeit zu identifizieren, die durch aufeinander folgende Einsätze auf der Kurzstrecke innerhalb eines Zeitraums von acht Wochen auftreten können. Hierfür wurden Daten von 29 Piloten (N=13 Kapitäne; N=16 Erste Offiziere) aufgezeichnet. Das Durchschnittsalter lag bei 33,8 ± 7,9 Jahren (Kapitäne: 42,0 ± 3,8 Jahre; Erste Offiziere: 27,4 ± 2,2 Jahre). METHODEN: Über ein Handheld PC konnten effizient Fragebögen bearbeitet und das Sleep Log sowie das Flight Log geführt werden. Die subjektive Ermüdung und Arbeitsbeanspruchung wurden durch standardisierte Fragebögen (z.B. Ermüdungsskala von Samn & Perelli (1982), NASA-TLX) operationalisiert. Im Sleep Log und im Flight Log wurden das Schlaf-Wach-Verhalten sowie flugspezifische Daten dokumentiert (z.B. Dienstbeginn, Dienstende, Flugabschnitte, Zielorte, etc.). Der Schlaf-Wach-Zyklus wurde mittels der Aktimetrie während des gesamten Messverlaufs aufgezeichnet. Die objektive Leistungsfähigkeit wurde täglich morgens und abends mit Hilfe einer computergestützten Psychomotor Vigilance Task (PVT) nach Dinges & Powell (1985) erfasst. Die Leistung in der PVT diente als Indikator für die Ermüdung eines Piloten. Zusätzliche Befragungen mit Paper-Pencil-Fragebögen sollten Aufschluss über relevante, psychosoziale Randbedingungen geben, die bei den täglichen Erhebungen nicht berücksichtigt wurden (z.B. Arbeitszufriedenheit; Essgewohnheiten; Kollegenbeziehungen). ERGEBNISSE: Unter Beachtung kumulativer Effekte wurde über die Studiendauer keine Veränderung in der Schlafqualität und im Schlafbedürfnis festgestellt. Die Müdigkeit nahm dagegen während der achtwöchigen Untersuchung zu. Die Reaktionszeit in der PVT zeigte an Flugdiensttagen eine Verschlechterung über die Zeit. Insgesamt wurden keine kritischen längerfristigen Effekte analysiert. Akute signifikante Effekte wurden bei der Ermüdung, der Gesamtbelastung und der Leistungsfähigkeit an Flugdiensttagen gefunden. Die Ermüdung als auch die Gesamtbelastung stiegen bei zunehmender Flugdienstdauer und Leganzahl und die Leistung nahm in der PVT ab. Der „time on task“ Effekt zeigte sich besonders in der Ermüdung durch die fliegerische Tätigkeit ab einer Flugdienstzeit von > 10 Stunden und > 4 Legs pro Tag. SCHLUSSFOLGERUNG: Mit diesen Ergebnissen konnte eine wissenschaftliche Datenbasis geschaffen werden aus der Empfehlungen resultieren, wie die Einsatzplanung für das Cockpitpersonal auf der Kurzstrecke unter flugmedizinischen und flugpsychologischen Gesichtspunkten optimiert werden kann. Zudem kann ein sachgerechter Beitrag im Rahmen der Diskussion zur Flugdienst- und Ruhezeitenregelung auf europäischer Ebene geleistet werden.

Agricultural practices and horizontal nutrient balances in urban gardens and the alternative use of urban agricultural land in Khartoum, Sudan

The surge in the urban population evident in most developing countries is a worldwide phenomenon, and often the result of drought, conflicts, poverty and the lack of education opportunities. In parallel with the growth of the cities is the growing need for food which leads to the burgeoning expansion of urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA). In this context, urban agriculture (UA) contributes significantly to supplying local markets with both vegetable and animal produce. As an income generating activity, UA also contributes to the livelihoods of poor urban dwellers. In order to evaluate the nutrient status of urban soils in relation to garden management, this study assessed nutrient fluxes (inputs and outputs) in gardens on urban Gerif soils on the banks of the River Nile in Khartoum, the capital city of Sudan. To achieve this objective, a preliminary baseline survey was carried out to describe the structure of the existing garden systems. In cooperation with the author of another PhD thesis (Ms. Ishtiag Abdalla), alternative uses of cow dung in brick making kilns in urban Khartoum were assessed; and the socio-economic criteria of the brick kiln owners or agents, economical and plant nutritional value of animal dung and the gaseous emission related to brick making activities were assessed. A total of 40 household heads were interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire to collect information on demographic, socio-economic and migratory characteristics of the household members, the gardening systems used and the problems encountered in urban gardening. Based on the results of this survey, gardens were divided into three groups: mixed vegetable-fodder gardens, mixed vegetable-subsistence livestock gardens and pure vegetable gardens. The results revealed that UA is the exclusive domain of men, 80% of them non-native to Khartoum. The harvested produce in all gardens was market oriented and represented the main source of income for 83% of the gardeners. Fast growing leafy vegetables such as Jew’s mallow (Corchorous olitorius L.), purslane (Portulaca oleracea L.) and rocket (Eruca sativa Mill.) were the dominant cultivated species. Most of the gardens (95%) were continuously cultivated throughout the year without any fallow period, unless they were flooded. Gardeners were not generally aware of the importance of crop diversity, which may help them overcome the strongly fluctuating market prices for their produce and thereby strengthen the contributions of UA to the overall productivity of the city. To measure nutrient fluxes, four gardens were selected and their nutrients inputs and outputs flows were monitored. In each garden, all plots were monitored for quantification of nutrient inputs and outputs. To determine soil chemical fertility parameters in each of the studied gardens, soil samples were taken from three selected plots at the beginning of the study in October 2007 (gardens L1, L2 and H1) and in April 2008 (garden H2) and at the end of the study period in March 2010. Additional soil sampling occurred in May 2009 to assess changes in the soil nutrient status after the River Nile flood of 2008 had receded. Samples of rain and irrigation water (river and well-water) were analyzed for nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K) and carbon (C) content to determine their nutrient inputs. Catchment traps were installed to quantify the sediment yield from the River Nile flood. To quantify the nutrient inputs of sediments, samples were analyzed for N, P, K and organic carbon (Corg) content, cation exchange capacity (CEC) and the particle size distribution. The total nutrient inputs were calculated by multiplying the sediment nutrient content by total sediment deposits on individual gardens. Nutrient output in the form of harvested yield was quantified at harvest of each crop. Plant samples from each field were dried, and analyzed for their N, P, K and Corg content. Cumulative leaching losses of mineral N and P were estimated in a single plot in garden L1 from December 1st 2008 to July 1st 2009 using 12 ion exchange resins cartridges. Nutrients were extracted and analyzed for nitrate (NO3--N), ammonium (NH4+-N) and phosphate PO4-3-P. Changes in soil nutrient balance were assessed as inputs minus outputs. The results showed that across gardens, soil N and P concentrations increased from 2007 to 2009, while particle size distribution remained unchanged. Sediment loads and their respective contents of N, P and Corg decreased significantly (P < 0.05) from the gardens of the downstream lowlands (L1 and L2) to the gardens of the upstream highlands (H1 and H2). No significant difference was found in K deposits. None of the gardens received organic fertilizers and the only mineral fertilizer applied was urea (46-0-0). This equaled 29, 30, 54, and 67% of total N inputs to gardens L1, L2, H1, and H2, respectively. Sediment deposits of the River Nile floods contributed on average 67, 94, 6 and 42% to the total N, P, K and C inputs in lowland gardens and 33, 86, 4 and 37% of total N, P, K and C inputs in highland gardens. Irrigation water and rainfall contributed substantially to K inputs representing 96, 92, 94 and 96% of total K influxes in garden L1, L2, H1 and H2, respectively. Following the same order, total annual DM yields in the gardens were 26, 18, 16 and 1.8 t ha-1. Annual leaching losses were estimated to be 0.02 kg NH4+-N ha-1 (SE = 0.004), 0.03 kg NO3--N ha-1 (SE = 0.002) and 0.005 kg PO4-3-P ha-1 (SE = 0.0007). Differences between nutrient inputs and outputs indicated negative nutrient balances for P and K and positive balances of N and C for all gardens. The negative balances in P and K call for adoptions of new agricultural techniques such as regular manure additions or mulching which may enhance the soil organic matter status. A quantification of fluxes not measured in our study such as N2-fixation, dry deposition and gaseous emissions of C and N would be necessary to comprehensively assess the sustainability of these intensive gardening systems. The second part of the survey dealt with the brick making kilns. A total of 50 brick kiln owners/or agents were interviewed from July to August 2009, using a semi-structured questionnaire. The data collected included general information such as age, family size, education, land ownership, number of kilns managed and/or owned, number of months that kilns were in operation, quantity of inputs (cow dung and fuel wood) used, prices of inputs and products across the production season. Information related to the share value of the land on which the kilns were built and annual income for urban farmers and annual returns from dung for the animal raisers was also collected. Using descriptive statistics, budget calculation and Gini coefficient, the results indicated that renting the land to brick making kilns yields a 5-fold higher return than the rent for agriculture. Gini coefficient showed that the kiln owners had a more equal income distribution compared to farmers. To estimate emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and losses of N, P, K, Corg and DM from cow dung when used in brick making, samples of cow dung (loose and compacted) were collected from different kilns and analyzed for their N, P, K and Corg content. The procedure modified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1994) was used to estimate the gaseous emissions of cow dung and fuel wood. The amount of deforested wood was estimated according to the default values for wood density given by Dixon et al. (1991) and the expansion ratio for branches and small trees given by Brown et al. (1989). The data showed the monetary value of added N and P from cow dung was lower than for mineral fertilizers. Annual consumption of compacted dung (381 t DM) as biomass fuel by far exceeded the consumption of fuel wood (36 t DM). Gaseous emissions from cow dung and fuel wood were dominated by CO2, CO and CH4. Considering that Gerif land in urban Khartoum supports a multifunctional land use system, efficient use of natural resources (forest, dung, land and water) will enhance the sustainability of the UA and brick making activities. Adoption of new kilns with higher energy efficiency will reduce the amount of biomass fuels (cow dung and wood) used the amount of GHGs emitted and the threat to the few remaining forests.

Application of biogas slurries from energy crops to arable soils and their impact on carbon and nitrogen dynamics

The use of renewable primary products as co-substrate or single substrate for biogas production has increased consistently over the last few years. Maize silage is the preferential energy crop used for fermentation due to its high methane (CH4) yield per hectare. Equally, the by-product, namely biogas slurry (BS), is used with increasing frequency as organic fertilizer to return nutrients to the soil and to maintain or increase the organic matter stocks and soil fertility. Studies concerning the application of energy crop-derived BS on the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) mineralization dynamics are scarce. Thus, this thesis focused on the following objectives: I) The determination of the effects caused by rainfall patterns on the C and N dynamics from two contrasting organic fertilizers, namely BS from maize silage and composted cattle manure (CM), by monitoring emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), carbon dioxide (CO2) and CH4 as well as leaching losses of C and N. II) The investigation of the impact of differences in soil moisture content after the application of BS and temperature on gaseous emissions (CO2, N2O and CH4) and leaching of C and N compounds. III) A comparison of BS properties obtained from biogas plants with different substrate inputs and operating parameters and their effect on C and N dynamics after application to differently textured soils with varying application rates and water contents. For the objectives I) and II) two experiments (experiment I and II) using undisturbed soil cores of a Haplic Luvisol were carried out. Objective III) was studied on a third experiment (experiment III) with disturbed soil samples. During experiment I three rainfall patterns were implemented including constant irrigation, continuous irrigation with periodic heavy rainfall events, and partial drying with rewetting periods. Biogas slurry and CM were applied at a rate of 100 kg N ha-1. During experiment II constant irrigation and an irrigation pattern with partial drying with rewetting periods were carried out at 13.5°C and 23.5°C. The application of BS took place either directly before a rewetting period or one week after the rewetting period stopped. Experiment III included two soils of different texture which were mixed with ten BS’s originating from ten different biogas plants. Treatments included low, medium and high BS-N application rates and water contents ranging from 50% to 100% of water holding capacity (WHC). Experiment I and II showed that after the application of BS cumulative N2O emissions were 4 times (162 mg N2O-N m-2) higher compared to the application of CM caused by a higher content of mineral N (Nmin) in the form of ammonium (NH4+) in the BS. The cumulative emissions of CO2, however, were on the same level for both fertilizers indicating similar amounts of readily available C after composting and fermentation of organic material. Leaching losses occurred predominantly in the mineral form of nitrate (NO3-) and were higher in BS amended soils (9 mg NO3--N m-2) compared to CM amended soils (5 mg NO3--N m-2). The rainfall pattern in experiment I and II merely affected the temporal production of C and N emissions resulting in reduced CO2 and enhanced N2O emissions during stronger irrigation events, but showed no effect on the cumulative emissions. Overall, a significant increase of CH4 consumption under inconstant irrigation was found. The time of fertilization had no effect on the overall C and N dynamics. Increasing temperature from 13.5°C to 23.5°C enhanced the CO2 and N2O emissions by a factor of 1.7 and 3.7, respectively. Due to the increased microbial activity with increasing temperature soil respiration was enhanced. This led to decreasing oxygen (O2) contents which in turn promoted denitrification in soil due to the extension of anaerobic microsites. Leaching losses of NO3- were also significantly affected by increasing temperature whereas the consumption of CH4 was not affected. The third experiment showed that the input materials of biogas plants affected the properties of the resulting BS. In particular the contents of DM and NH4+ were determined by the amount of added plant biomass and excrement-based biomass, respectively. Correlations between BS properties and CO2 or N2O emissions were not detected. Solely the ammonia (NH3) emissions showed a positive correlation with NH4+ content in BS as well as a negative correlation with the total C (Ct) content. The BS-N application rates affected the relative CO2 emissions (% of C supplied with BS) when applied to silty soil as well as the relative N2O emissions (% of N supplied with BS) when applied to sandy soil. The impacts on the C and N dynamics induced by BS application were exceeded by the differences induced by soil texture. Presumably, due to the higher clay content in silty soils, organic matter was stabilized by organo-mineral interactions and NH4+ was adsorbed at the cation exchange sites. Different water contents induced highest CO2 emissions and therefore optimal conditions for microbial activity at 75% of WHC in both soils. Cumulative nitrification was also highest at 75% and 50% of WHC whereas the relative N2O emissions increased with water content and showed higher N2O losses in sandy soils. In summary it can be stated that the findings of the present thesis confirmed the high fertilizer value of BS’s, caused by high concentrations of NH4+ and labile organic compounds such as readily available carbon. These attributes of BS’s are to a great extent independent of the input materials of biogas plants. However, considerably gaseous and leaching losses of N may occur especially at high moisture contents. The emissions of N2O after field application corresponded with those of animal slurries.

Effects of transformation processes in 'jubraka' agroforestry systems of the Nuba Mountains, Sudan, on nutrient fluxes

Intensification processes in homegardens of the Nuba Mountains, Sudan, raise concerns about strongly positive carbon (C) and nutrient balances which are expected to lead to substantial element losses from these agroecosystems, in particular via soil gaseous emissions. Therefore, this thesis aimed at the quantification of C, nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) input and output fluxes with a special focus on soil gaseous losses, and the calculation of respective element balances. A further focus in this thesis was rainfall, a valuable resource for rain-fed agriculture in the Nuba Mountains. To minimize negative consequences of the high variability of rainfall, risk reducing mechanisms were developed by rain-fed farmers that may lose their efficacy in the course of climate change effects predicted for East Africa. Therefore, the second objective of this study was to examine possible changes in rainfall amounts during the last 60 years and to provide reliable risk and probability statements of rainfall-induced events of agricultural importance to rain-fed farmers in the Nuba Mountains. Soil gaseous emissions of C (in form of CO2) and N (in form of NH3 and N2O) of two traditional and two intensified homegardens were determined with a portable dynamic closed chamber system. For C gaseous emission rates reached their peak at the onset of the rainy season (2,325 g CO2-C ha-1 h-1 in an intensified garden type) and for N during the rainy season (16 g NH3-N ha-1 h-1 and 11.3 g N2O-N ha-1 h-1, in a traditional garden type). Data indicated cumulative annual emissions of 5,893 kg CO2-C ha-1, 37 kg NH3-N ha-1, and 16 kg N2O-N ha-1. For the assessment of the long-term productivity of the two types of homegardens and the identification of pathways of substantial element losses, a C and nutrient budget approach was used. In three traditional and three intensified homegardens observation plots were selected. The following variables were quantified on each plot between June and December in 2010: soil amendments, irrigation, biomass removal, symbiotic N2 fixation, C fixation by photosynthesis, atmospheric wet and dry deposition, leaching and soil gaseous emissions. Annual balances for C and nutrients amounted to -21 kg C ha-1, -70 kg N ha-1, 9 kg P ha-1 and -117 kg K ha-1 in intensified homegardens and to -1,722 kg C ha-1, -167 kg N ha-1, -9 kg P ha-1 and -74 kg K ha-1 in traditional homegardens. For the analysis of rainfall data, the INSTAT+ software allowed to aggregate long-term daily rainfall records from the Kadugli and Rashad weather stations into daily, monthly and annual intervals and to calculate rainfall-induced events of agricultural importance. Subsequently, these calculated values and events were checked for possible monotonic trends by Mann-Kendall tests. Over the period from 1970 to 2009, annual rainfall did not change significantly for either station. However, during this period an increase of low rainfall events coinciding with a decline in the number of medium daily rainfall events was observed in Rashad. Furthermore, the availability of daily rainfall data enabled frequency and conditional probability calculations that showed either no statistically significant changes or trends resulting only in minor changes of probabilities.

Using Analogy to Acquire Commonsense Knowledge from Human Contributors

The goal of the work reported here is to capture the commonsense knowledge of non-expert human contributors. Achieving this goal will enable more intelligent human-computer interfaces and pave the way for computers to reason about our world. In the domain of natural language processing, it will provide the world knowledge much needed for semantic processing of natural language. To acquire knowledge from contributors not trained in knowledge engineering, I take the following four steps: (i) develop a knowledge representation (KR) model for simple assertions in natural language, (ii) introduce cumulative analogy, a class of nearest-neighbor based analogical reasoning algorithms over this representation, (iii) argue that cumulative analogy is well suited for knowledge acquisition (KA) based on a theoretical analysis of effectiveness of KA with this approach, and (iv) test the KR model and the effectiveness of the cumulative analogy algorithms empirically. To investigate effectiveness of cumulative analogy for KA empirically, Learner, an open source system for KA by cumulative analogy has been implemented, deployed, and evaluated. (The site "1001 Questions," is available at http://teach-computers.org/learner.html). Learner acquires assertion-level knowledge by constructing shallow semantic analogies between a KA topic and its nearest neighbors and posing these analogies as natural language questions to human contributors. Suppose, for example, that based on the knowledge about "newspapers" already present in the knowledge base, Learner judges "newspaper" to be similar to "book" and "magazine." Further suppose that assertions "books contain information" and "magazines contain information" are also already in the knowledge base. Then Learner will use cumulative analogy from the similar topics to ask humans whether "newspapers contain information." Because similarity between topics is computed based on what is already known about them, Learner exhibits bootstrapping behavior --- the quality of its questions improves as it gathers more knowledge. By summing evidence for and against posing any given question, Learner also exhibits noise tolerance, limiting the effect of incorrect similarities. The KA power of shallow semantic analogy from nearest neighbors is one of the main findings of this thesis. I perform an analysis of commonsense knowledge collected by another research effort that did not rely on analogical reasoning and demonstrate that indeed there is sufficient amount of correlation in the knowledge base to motivate using cumulative analogy from nearest neighbors as a KA method. Empirically, evaluating the percentages of questions answered affirmatively, negatively and judged to be nonsensical in the cumulative analogy case compares favorably with the baseline, no-similarity case that relies on random objects rather than nearest neighbors. Of the questions generated by cumulative analogy, contributors answered 45% affirmatively, 28% negatively and marked 13% as nonsensical; in the control, no-similarity case 8% of questions were answered affirmatively, 60% negatively and 26% were marked as nonsensical.

Reinforcement Learning by Policy Search

One objective of artificial intelligence is to model the behavior of an intelligent agent interacting with its environment. The environment's transformations can be modeled as a Markov chain, whose state is partially observable to the agent and affected by its actions; such processes are known as partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). While the environment's dynamics are assumed to obey certain rules, the agent does not know them and must learn. In this dissertation we focus on the agent's adaptation as captured by the reinforcement learning framework. This means learning a policy---a mapping of observations into actions---based on feedback from the environment. The learning can be viewed as browsing a set of policies while evaluating them by trial through interaction with the environment. The set of policies is constrained by the architecture of the agent's controller. POMDPs require a controller to have a memory. We investigate controllers with memory, including controllers with external memory, finite state controllers and distributed controllers for multi-agent systems. For these various controllers we work out the details of the algorithms which learn by ascending the gradient of expected cumulative reinforcement. Building on statistical learning theory and experiment design theory, a policy evaluation algorithm is developed for the case of experience re-use. We address the question of sufficient experience for uniform convergence of policy evaluation and obtain sample complexity bounds for various estimators. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithms on several domains, the most complex of which is simulated adaptive packet routing in a telecommunication network.

A unified approach for representing rows and columns in contingency tables

By using suitable parameters, we present a uni¯ed aproach for describing four methods for representing categorical data in a contingency table. These methods include: correspondence analysis (CA), the alternative approach using Hellinger distance (HD), the log-ratio (LR) alternative, which is appropriate for compositional data, and the so-called non-symmetrical correspondence analysis (NSCA). We then make an appropriate comparison among these four methods and some illustrative examples are given. Some approaches based on cumulative frequencies are also linked and studied using matrices. Key words: Correspondence analysis, Hellinger distance, Non-symmetrical correspondence analysis, log-ratio analysis, Taguchi inertia

Efectos del sistema de multifondos en el Régimen de Ahorro Individual en Colombia

Recientemente, el gobierno nacional radicó un proyecto de reforma financiera en el que se propone flexibilizar la regulación de los Fondos de Pensiones. En particular, se propone que los agentes pueden escoger la composición del portafolio en el que están invertidos sus ahorros pensionales. Para evaluar los posibles efectos de este cambio sobre el bienestar de los agentes, este trabajo analiza las decisiones de inversión de un individuo con función de utilidad con aversión absoluta al riesgo constante (CARA) frente a la Teoría de la diversificación del portafolio. Adicionalmente, se realiza un ejercicio contrafactual con el fin de calcular cual hubiera sido el valor del activo pensional para diferentes individuos si la legislación propuesta por el gobierno hubiera aplicado para el período 1980-2008. Este ejercicio se realiza utilizando información de las Bolsas de Valores de Colombia y la Encuesta de Calidad de Vida 2003 (ECV 2003), siguiendo la metodología de Herscovich (2003) los resultados del análisis teórico sugieren que ante un mayor valor acumulado en las cuentas de pensión, los individuos disminuyen su exposición ante el riesgo en sus portafolios. Así, la composición del portafolio debe estar más concentrada en renta variable para los agentes jóvenes y más concentrada en renta fija para los agentes viejos. Por otro lado, el ejercicio contrafactual, indica que la mejor decisión habría sido invertir todo el portafolio en activos de renta variable. Este contraste en los resultados llama la atención acerca de dos problemas: Primero, es posible que la estrategia que maximiza la utilidad ex-ante de los individuos no sea la misma que maximiza el valor de su pensión. Segundo, el ejercicio presentado parte del supuesto de que no hay información adicional que permita suponer cambios de tendencia o de volatilidad en las rentabilidades de los distintos activos financieros. No obstante, es claro que los especialistas en el mercado financiero cuentan con información suficiente para predecir este tipo de eventos. Por esta razón, el estudio sugiere que el papel de la asesoría financiera a los ahorradores es fundamental para permitir un cambio al sistema multifondos, puesto que el incremento en las opciones de inversión no conduce a un incremento en el bienestar de los individuos en ausencia de información. Adicionalmente, al comparar la evolución de las cuentas de pensión con los porcentajes históricos y con el sistema multifondos, se encuentra un mejor desempeño cuando el porcentaje de inversión en activos de renta variable es mayor que el actual, lo cual sugiere un incremento en la restricción actual de inversión de activos de renta variable para mejorar el desempeño de los fondos.