A SPATIAL COMPARISON OF SHORT AND LONG TERM MIGRATION TRENDS IN CHINA

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POSSIBLE MIGRATION ROUTES THROUGH MAINE BY VERNAL MIGRANTS

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Possible Migration Routes Through Maine by Vernal Migrants

In this study we evaluate the possibility of two routes of migration into the state of Maine. The first possible route would be for migrants to continue along the coast, north of the Maine/New Hampshire border, and later swinging inland across the interior. The second path is for migrants who come up the east coast and straight into Maine, spreading across the state as they move north. In order to evaluate these possible routes we utilize a citizen-science project that measures the spring arrival dates of migrants according to the biophysical regions of Maine (Wilson 2007). Independent t-Tests and maps indicate that there is a trend of birds continuing along the coast before moving inland; six of the nine species show this pattern. Of the nine birds studied, only the eastern phoebe showed a significant trend of moving directly inland and moving across the state. Two birds show non-significant patterns of migration which could indicate insufficient data, or random migration patterns. The results are not conclusive because several of the biophysical regions have less reporting, and so the relationships among regions regarding arrival dates are skewed. Continued data collection and analysis is recommended.

A Spatial Comparison of Short and Long Term Migration Trends in China

China’s floating population, those individuals who have migrated between counties or provinces for a period of longer than 6 months, account for 79 million individuals. If intracounty migration is also included, the number jumps to 145 million individuals or over 11% of the total population. This study examines the geographical differences in short and long term migration using ArcGIS to manipulate the spatial GIS data. The study shows that both short and long term migration (in absolute numbers) occurs more frequently near cities and in coastal regions. However, by normalizing the data by population size, the study eliminates the problems of population size on the size of the migrants. Using this normalized data, the study finds that western and northern counties have a large number of migrants present relative to the size of the population. Determining where this floating population migrates helps explain regional inequalities in employment opportunities.

Redefining the Academic Library Managing the Migration to Digital Information Services

Academic libraries are faced with a daunting series of challenges brought on by the digital revolution. In an era when millions of books, articles, images, and videos available instantaneously via the web, libraries across all institutional types are experiencing declining demand for their traditional services, built around the storage and dissemination of physical resources. At the same time, new demand for digital information services and collaborative learning spaces promise new areas of opportunity and engagement with patrons. A rapid and orderly transition to “the library of the future” requires difficult trade-offs, however, as no institution can afford to continue expanding both its commitment to comprehensive, local print collections as well as new investments in staff, technology, and renovations. This report illustrates how progressive academic libraries are evolving in response to these challenges, providing case studies and best practices in managing library space, staff, and resources.

The Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble?

A forte alta dos imóveis no Brasil nos últimos anos iniciou um debate sobre a possível existência de uma bolha especulativa. Dada a recente crise do crédito nos Estados Unidos, é factível questionar se a situação atual no Brasil pode ser comparada à crise americana. Considerando argumentos quantitativos e fundamentais, examina-se o contexto imobiliário brasileiro e questiona-se a sustentabilidade em um futuro próximo. Primeiramente, analisou-se a taxa de aluguel e o nível de acesso aos imóveis e também utilizou-se um modelo do custo real para ver se o mercado está em equilíbrio o não. Depois examinou-se alguns fatores fundamentais que afetam o preço dos imóveis – oferta e demanda, crédito e regulação, fatores culturais – para encontrar evidências que justificam o aumento dos preços dos imóveis. A partir dessas observações tentou-se chegar a uma conclusão sobre a evolução dos preços no mercado imobiliário brasileiro. Enquanto os dados sugerem que os preços dos imóveis estão supervalorizados em comparação ao preço dos aluguéis, há evidências de uma legítima demanda por novos imóveis na emergente classe média brasileira. Um risco maior pode estar no mercado de crédito, altamente alavancado em relação ao consumidor brasileiro. No entanto, não se encontrou evidências que sugerem mais do que uma temporária estabilização ou correção no preço dos imóveis.

The effects of a centralized college admission mechanism on migration and college enrollment: evidence from Brazil

No Brasil, a recente reformulação do Exame Nacional de Ensino Médio (ENEM) e a criação do Sistema de Seleção Unificada (SISU), um mecanismo de admissão centralizado que aloca os alunos às instituições, promoveram mudanças relevantes no Ensino Superior. Neste artigo, investigamos os efeitos da introdução do SISU na migração e evasão dos alunos ingressantes a partir dos dados do Censo de Educação Superior. Para tal, exploramos a variação temporal na adesão das instituições ao SISU e encontramos que a adoção do SISU está associada a um aumento da mobilidade entre municípios e entre estados dos alunos ingressantes em 3.8 pontos percentuais (p.p) e 1.6 p.p., respectivamente. Além disso, encontramos um aumento da evasão em 4.5 p.p. Nossos resultados indicam que custos associados à migração e comportamento estratégico são importantes determinantes da evasão dos alunos.

Speculative bubbles and contagion: analysis of volatility’s clusters during the DotCom bubble based on the dynamic conditional correlation model

Revendo a definição e determinação de bolhas especulativas no contexto de contágio, este estudo analisa a bolha do DotCom nos mercados acionistas americanos e europeus usando o modelo de correlação condicional dinâmica (DCC) proposto por Engle e Sheppard (2001) como uma explicação econométrica e, por outro lado, as finanças comportamentais como uma explicação psicológica. Contágio é definido, neste contexto, como a quebra estatística nos DCC’s estimados, medidos através das alterações das suas médias e medianas. Surpreendentemente, o contágio é menor durante bolhas de preços, sendo que o resultado principal indica a presença de contágio entre os diferentes índices dos dois continentes e demonstra a presença de alterações estruturais durante a crise financeira.

Speculative bubbles and contagion: analysis of volatility's clusters during the DotCom bubble based on the dynamic conditional correlation model

Reviewing the de nition and measurement of speculative bubbles in context of contagion, this paper analyses the DotCom bubble in American and European equity markets using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by (Engle and Sheppard 2001) as on one hand as an econometrics explanation and on the other hand the behavioral nance as an psychological explanation. Contagion is de ned in this context as the statistical break in the computed DCCs as measured by the shifts in their means and medians. Even it is astonishing, that the contagion is lower during price bubbles, the main nding indicates the presence of contagion in the di¤erent indices among those two continents and proves the presence of structural changes during nancial crisis

Metodologia para avaliação de cinemática de partículas gasosas em fluidos de viscosidade variável com o tempo e sua aplicação na construção de poços de petróleo

Many challenges have been presented in petroleum industry. One of them is the preventing of fluids influx during drilling and cementing. Gas migration can occur as result of pressure imbalance inside the well when well pressure becomes lower than gas zone pressure and in cementing operation this occurs during cement slurry transition period (solid to fluid). In this work it was developed a methodology to evaluate gas migration during drilling and cementing operations. It was considered gel strength concept and through experimental tests determined gas migration initial time. A mechanistic model was developed to obtain equation that evaluates bubble displacement through the fluid while it gels. Being a time-dependant behavior, dynamic rheological measurements were made to evaluate viscosity along the time. For drilling fluids analyzed it was verified that it is desirable fast and non-progressive gelation in order to reduce gas migration without affect operational window (difference between pore and fracture pressure). For cement slurries analyzed, the most appropriate is that remains fluid for more time below critical gel strength, maintaining hydrostatic pressure above gas zone pressure, and after that gels quickly, reducing gas migration. The model developed simulates previously operational conditions and allow changes in operational and fluids design to obtain a safer condition for well construction

Estimating abundance and spatial distribution patterns of the bubble crab Dotilla fenestrata (Crustacea : Brachyura)

The bubble crab Dotilla fenestrata forms very dense populations on the sand flats of the eastern coast of Inhaca Island, Mozambique, making it an interesting biological model to examine spatial distribution patterns and test the relative efficiency of common sampling methods. Due to its apparent ecological importance within the sandy intertidal community, understanding the factors ruling the dynamics of Dotilla populations is also a key issue. In this study, different techniques of estimating crab density are described, and the trends of spatial distribution of the different population categories are shown. The studied populations are arranged in discrete patches located at the well-drained crests of nearly parallel mega sand ripples. For a given sample size, there was an obvious gain in precision by using a stratified random sampling technique, considering discrete patches as strata, compared to the simple random design. Density average and variance differed considerably among patches since juveniles and ovigerous females were found clumped, with higher densities at the lower and upper shore levels, respectively. Burrow counting was found to be an adequate method for large-scale sampling, although consistently underestimating actual crab density by nearly half. Regression analyses suggested that crabs smaller than 2.9 mm carapace width tend to be undetected in visual burrow counts. A visual survey of sampling plots over several patches of a large Dotilla population showed that crab density varied in an interesting oscillating pattern, apparently following the topography of the sand flat. Patches extending to the lower shore contained higher densities than those mostly covering the higher shore. Within-patch density variability also pointed to the same trend, but the density increment towards the lowest shore level varied greatly among the patches compared.

Reproductive migration and population dynamics of the blue crab Callinectes danae in an estuary in southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Migration of Tinuvin P, a UV stabilizer, from PET bottles into fatty-food simulants

Tinuvin P migration from Polyethyleneterephthalate (PET) bottles was investigated using several fatty-food simulants such as olive oil, soybean oil, n-heptane and iso-octane, at exposure conditions of 2-10 days at 40 degrees C (total immersion). The stability of several UV stabilizers (BHT, Cyasorb UV 5411, Tinuvin P, Tinuvin 326 and Tinuvin 327) in n-heptane and iso-octane was also studied. After 10 days at 40 degrees C, losses of 6% and 20% in iso-octane and n-heptane respectively, were verified for Tinuvin P. Other UV stabilizers at the same experimental conditions showed higher losses (up to 30% for Tinuvin 327). These results confirm that, when carrying out specific migration studies, the stability of the substance of interest should be established in the food simulant to avoid underestimating the real migration behaviour. In order to quantify UV stabilizer migration, n-heptane and iso-octane solutions were concentrated and directly analysed by SIM mode GC-MS. For olive and soybean oils, Tinuvin P was isolated using size-exclusion chromatography and quantified by SIM mode GC-MS. Iso-octane proved to be a move suitable fatty-food simulant than n-heptane for the migration study of Tinuvin P from PET. Higher levels of Tinuvin P migrated to olive and soybean oils rather than to n-heptane. These results suggest that the MERCOSUL recommended official methods for specific migration studies should be revised since the migration levels using n-heptane as a fatty-food simulant could be underestimated when compared to edible oils. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

EFFECT of GAMMA IRRADIATION on CAPROLACTAM MIGRATION FROM MULTILAYER POLYAMIDE 6 FILMS INTO WATER FOOD SIMULANT and VALIDATION of THE METHOD

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Identification and migration of degradation compounds from irradiation of multilayer polyamide 6 films for meat foodstuffs and cheese

The aim of this work was to identify the degradation compounds produced during irradiation of multilayer polyamide 6 (PA-6) films and to study their migration into water and 95% ethanol food simulant. After irradiation of multilayer PA-6 films at 3, 7 and 12 kGy, degradation compounds were extracted using solid-phase microextraction, for which the time and temperature of extraction and stirring were optimized, and identified by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Caprolactam, 2-cyclopentylcyclopentanone and aldehydes, among other compounds, were identified in the headspace of the films. Polydimethylsiloxane was considered the best fiber for extraction. The optimum conditions of time, temperature and stirring to extract the compounds were 20 min, 80 degrees C and 225 rpm. For validation purposes, the compounds were quantified in water and 95% ethanol and the results showed high sensitivity, good precision and accuracy. Migration of compounds from irradiated and non-irradiated multilayer PA-6 films into water and 95% ethanol food simulants was carried out at 40 degrees C for 10 days. The method was efficient for the quantification of decaldehyde, 2-cyclopentylcyclopentanone and caprolactam that migrated from multilayer PA-6 films into food simulants.