大气季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响研究

利用ERA40逐日再分析资料、NCEP/NCAR2逐日再分析资料、中国740个测站日降水资料、上海台风研究所提供的西太平洋热带气旋资料、Kaplan等重建的月平均SSTA资料、NOAA逐日长波辐射（OLR）等资料，应用离散功率谱分析、带通滤波、EOF分析等统计方法，研究了东亚夏季风(EASM）的移动特征、东亚地区季节内振荡(ISO)的基本特征、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风异常活动的影响机理。主要结论如下： （1）综合动力和热力因素定义了可动态描述东亚夏季风移动和强度的指数，并利用该指数研究了东亚夏季风的爆发和移动的季节内变化及其年际和年代际变化特征。研究发现，气候平均东亚夏季风前沿分别在28候、33候、36候、38候、40候、44候出现了明显的跳跃。东亚夏季风活动具有显著的年际变率，主要由于季风前沿在某些区域异常停滞和突然跨越北跳或南撤引起，造成中国东部旱涝灾害频繁发生。东亚夏季风的活动具有明显的年代际变化，在1965年、1980年、1994年发生了突变，造成中国东部降水由“南旱北涝”向“南涝北旱”的转变。 （2）东亚季风区季节内变化具有10~25d和30~60d两个波段的季节内振荡周期，以30-60d为主。存在三个主要低频模态，第一模态主要表征了EASM在长江中下游和华北地区活动期间的低频形势；第二模态印度洋-菲律宾由低频气旋式环流控制，主要表现了ISO在EASM爆发期间的低频形势；第三模态主要出现在EASM在华南和淮河活动期间的低频形势。第一模态和第三模态是代表东亚夏季风活动异常的主要低频形势。 （3）热带和副热带地区ISO总是沿垂直切变风的垂直方向传播。因此，在南海-菲律宾东北风垂直切变和副热带西太平洋北风垂直切变下，大气热源激发菲律宾附近交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播，副热带西太平洋ISO以向西传播为主。中高纬度地区，乌拉尔山附近ISO以向东、向南移动或局地振荡为主；北太平洋中部ISO在某些情况下向南、向西传播。 （4）季风爆发期，伴随着热带东印度洋到菲律宾一系列低频气旋和低频反气旋， 冷空气向南输送，10~25天和30~60天季节内振荡低频气旋同时传入南海加快了南海夏季风的爆发。在气候态下，ISO活动表现的欧亚- 太平洋（EAP）以及太平洋-北美（PNA）低频波列分布特征(本文提出的EAP和PNA低频波列与传统意义上的二维定点相关得到的波列不同)。这种低频分布形式使得欧亚和太平洋中高纬度的槽、脊及太平洋副热带高压稳定、加强，东亚地区的低频波列则成为热带和中高纬度ISO相互作用影响东亚夏季风活动的纽带。不同的阶段表现不同的低频模态，30~60d低频模态的转变加快了EASM推进过程中跳跃性；30-60d低频模态的维持使得EASM前沿相对停滞。 （5）30-60d滤波场，菲律宾海域交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播到南海-西太平洋一带。当南海-西太平洋地区低频气旋活跃时，季风槽加强、东伸，季风槽内热带气旋（TC）频数增加；当南海-西太平洋低频反气旋活跃时，季风槽减弱、西退，TC处于间歇期，生成位置不集中。 （6）在El Nino态下，大气季节内振荡偏弱，北传特征不明显，但ISO由中高纬度北太平洋中部向南和副热带西太平洋向西的传播特征显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第三模态为主，EASM集中停滞在华南和淮河流域，常伴随着持续性区域暴雨的出现，易造成华南和江淮流域洪涝灾害，长江和华北持续干旱。在La Nina态下，大气季节内振荡活跃，且具有明显的向北传播特征，PNA低频波列显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第一模态单峰为主；EASM主要停滞在长江中下游和华北地区，这些地区出现异常持续强降水，华南和淮河流域多干旱；在El Nino态向La Nina态转换期，ISO活动以第一模态双峰为主，长江中下游常常出现二度梅。

Dinoflagellate cyst-based reconstructions of mid to late Holocene winter sea-surface temperature and productivity from an anoxic fjord in the NE Pacific Ocean

Published contemporary dinoflagellate distributional data from the NE Pacific margin and estuarine environments (n = 136) were re-analyzed using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) and partial Canonical Correspondence Analysis (pCCA). These analyses illustrated the dominant controls of winter temperature and productivity on the distribution of dinoflagellate cysts in this region. Dinoflagellate cyst-based predictive models for winter temperature and productivity were developed from the contemporary distributional data using the modern analogue technique and applied to subfossil data from two mid to late Holocene (~5500 calendar years before present–present) cores; TUL99B03 and TUL99B11, collected from Effingham Inlet, a 15 km long anoxic fjord located on the southwest coast of Vancouver Island that directly opens to the Pacific Ocean through Barkley Sound. Sedimentation within these basins largely comprises annually deposited laminated couplets, each made up of a winter deposited terrigenous layer and spring to fall deposited diatomaceous layer. The Effingham Inlet dinoflagellate cyst record provides evidence of a mid-Holocene gradual decline in winter SST, ending with the initiation of neoglacial advances in the region by ~3500 cal BP. A reconstructed Late Holocene increase in winter SST was initiated by a weakening of the California Current, which would have resulted in a warmer central gyre and more El Niño-like conditions.

The New Continental Line Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe Railroad West and Southwest schedule

The New Continental Line Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe Railroad West and Southwest schedule. The schedule is slightly torn. This does not affect the text, Sept. 4, 1881.

La cérémonie du Bounty Day : l’histoire des révoltés du Bounty comme récit fondateur sur les îles de Pitcairn et Norfolk et ses représentations en Occident

Cette étude s’attache à analyser deux performances symboliques ayant cours sur les îles de Pitcairn et de Norfolk dans le Pacifique Sud. Les habitants de ces deux îles séparées par 6000km de distance partagent tout d’abord un événement historique ayant eu lieu en 1789, la révolte du Bounty, rendue célèbre par des réalisations cinématographiques hollywoodiennes et de nombreux ouvrages ; et également un rattachement à cette histoire et à leur filiation avec ces mutins qui prennent forme dans une performance annuellement répétée qu’ils nomment : le Bounty Day. Ici, nous verrons comment l’identité émerge de la manipulation de faits historiques, pour saisir non seulement l’importance du processus de construction identitaire, mais comment cette macro-identité influence certains aspects du micro-vécu. « L’histoire », dans l’analyse qui sera proposée, est un domaine rhétorique et un ensemble de valeurs qui lient les individus non seulement à un monde oublié mais à un monde invisible, à l’Autre lointain, inconnu et donc potentiellement menaçant.

Future changes in the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity projected by a multidecadal simulation with a 16-km global atmospheric GCM

How tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northwestern Pacific might change in a future climate is assessed using multidecadal Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style and time-slice simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 16-km and 125-km global resolution. Both models reproduce many aspects of the present-day TC climatology and variability well, although the 16-km IFS is far more skillful in simulating the full intensity distribution and genesis locations, including their changes in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Both IFS models project a small change in TC frequency at the end of the twenty-first century related to distinct shifts in genesis locations. In the 16-km IFS, this shift is southward and is likely driven by the southeastward penetration of the monsoon trough/subtropical high circulation system and the southward shift in activity of the synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in response to the strengthening of deep convective activity over the central equatorial Pacific in a future climate. The 16-km IFS also projects about a 50% increase in the power dissipation index, mainly due to significant increases in the frequency of the more intense storms, which is comparable to the natural variability in the model. Based on composite analysis of large samples of supertyphoons, both the development rate and the peak intensities of these storms increase in a future climate, which is consistent with their tendency to develop more to the south, within an environment that is thermodynamically more favorable for faster development and higher intensities. Coherent changes in the vertical structure of supertyphoon composites show system-scale amplification of the primary and secondary circulations with signs of contraction, a deeper warm core, and an upward shift in the outflow layer and the frequency of the most intense updrafts. Considering the large differences in the projections of TC intensity change between the 16-km and 125-km IFS, this study further emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling in assessing potential changes in TC activity.

Draft U.S. Pacific Marine Mammal Stock Assessments: 2009

Under the 1994 amendments to the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) are required to publish Stock Assessment Reports for all stocks of marine mammals within U.S. waters, to review new information every year for strategic stocks and every three years for non-strategic stocks, and to update the stock assessment reports when significant new information becomes available. This report presents stock assessments for 13 Pacific marine mammal stocks under NMFS jurisdiction, including 8 “strategic” stocks and 5 “non-strategic” stocks (see summary table). A new stock assessment for humpback whales in American Samoa waters is included in the Pacific reports for the first time. New or revised abundance estimates are available for 9 stocks, including Eastern North Pacific blue whales, American Samoa humpback whales, five U.S. west coast harbor porpoise stocks, the Hawaiian monk seal, and southern resident killer whales. A change in the abundance estimate of Eastern North Pacific blue whales reflects a recommendation from the Pacific Scientific Review Group to utilize mark-recapture estimates for this population, which provide a better estimate of total population size than the average of recent line-transect and mark-recapture estimates. The ‘Northern Oregon/Washington Coast Stock’ harbor porpoise stock assessment includes a name change (‘Oregon’ is appended to ‘Northern Oregon’) to reflect recent stock boundary changes. Changes in abundance estimates for the two stocks of harbor porpoise that occur in Oregon waters are the result of these boundary changes, and do not reflect biological changes in the populations. Updated information on the three stocks of false killer whales in Hawaiian waters is also included in these reports. Information on the remaining 50 Pacific region stocks will be reprinted without revision in the final 2009 reports and currently appears in the 2008 reports (Carretta et al. 2009). Stock Assessments for Alaskan marine mammals are published by the National Marine Mammal Laboratory (NMML) in a separate report. Pacific region stock assessments include those studied by the Southwest Fisheries Science Center (SWFSC, La Jolla, California), the Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center (PIFSC, Honolulu, Hawaii), the National Marine Mammal Laboratory (NMML, Seattle, Washington), and the Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC, Seattle, WA). Northwest Fisheries Science Center staff prepared the report on the Eastern North Pacific Southern Resident killer whale. National Marine Mammal Laboratory staff prepared the Northern Oregon/Washington coast harbor porpoise stock assessment. Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center staff prepared the report on the Hawaiian monk seal. Southwest Fisheries Science Center staff prepared stock assessments for 9 stocks. The stock assessment for the American Samoa humpback whale was prepared by staff from the Center for Coastal Studies, Hawaiian Islands Humpback National Marine Sanctuary, the Smithsonian Institution, and the Southwest Fisheries Science Center. Draft versions of the stock assessment reports were reviewed by the Pacific Scientific Review Group at the November 2008, Maui meeting. The authors also wish to thank those who provided unpublished data, especially Robin Baird and Joseph Mobley, who provided valuable information on Hawaiian cetaceans. Any omissions or errors are the sole responsibility of the authors. This is a working document and individual stock assessment reports will be updated as new information on marine mammal stocks and fisheries becomes available. Background information and guidelines for preparing stock assessment reports are reviewed in Wade and Angliss (1997). The authors solicit any new information or comments which would improve future stock assessment reports. These Stock Assessment Reports summarize information from a wide range of sources and an extensive bibliography of all sources is given in each report. We strongly urge users of this document to refer to and cite original literature sources rather than citing this report or previous Stock Assessment Reports. If the original sources are not accessible, the citation should follow the format: [Original source], as cited in [this Stock Assessment Report citation].

U.S. Pacific Marine Mammal Stock Assessments

Under the 1994 amendments to the Marine Mammal Protection Act, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) were required to produce stock assessment reports for all marine mammal stocks in waters within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone. This document contains the stock assessment reports for the U.S. Pacific marine mammal stocks under NMFS jurisdiction. Marine mammal species which are under the management jurisdiction of the USFWS are not included in this report. A separate report containing background, guidelines for preparation, and .a summary of all stock assessment reports is available from the NMFS Office of Protected Resources. This report was prepared by staff of the Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NMFS and the Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NMFS. The information presented here was compiled primarily from published sources, but additional unpublished information was included where it contributed to the assessments. The authors wish to thanks the members of the Pacific Scientific Review Group for their valuable contributions and constructive criticism: Hannah Bernard, Robin Brown, Mark Fraker, Doyle Hanan, John Heyning, Steve Jeffries, Katherine Ralls, Michael Scott, and Terry Wright. Their comments greatly improved the quality of these reports, We also thanks the Marine Mammal Commission, The Humane Society of the United States, The Marine Mammal Center, The Center for Marine Conservation, and Friends of the Sea Otter for their careful reviews and thoughtful comments. Special thanks to Paul Wade of the Office of Protected Resources for his exhaustive review and comments, which greatly enhanced the consistency and technical quality of the reports. Any ommissions or errors are the sole responsibility of the authors. This is a working document and individual stock assessment reports will be updated as new information becomes available and as changes to marine mammal stocks and fisheries occur; therefore, each stock assessment report is intended to be a stand alone document. The authors solicit any new information or comments which would improve future stock assessment reports. This is Southwest Fisheries Science Center Technical Memorandum NOAA-TM-NMFS-SWFSC- 219, July 1995. 111

Chemical composition of bottom sediments from the northern part of the Deryugin Trough, Sea of Okhotsk

Distribution trace element contents in the upper (up to 5 m) Holocene-Upper Pleistocene sediment layer along the northern and southern sublatitudinal profiles in the northern part of the Deryugin Trough is discussed. Mathematical processing of chemical analysis data has been made. On the basis of the cluster analysis 16 elements have been combined into 5 geochemical groups. Two of them (1 - Ag-Mo group and 2 - Mn-Ba-Ni-Sr group) were considered in detail. Analysis of Ag and Mo distributions in the sediments and findings of molybdenite permitted to conclude that enrichment of the sediments by these elements resulted from edaphic washing of magmatic rocks containing Ag-Mo mineralization and probably located on the northwestern slope of the Deryugin trough. The second geochemical group is most likely connected with hydrothermal barite mineralization found in the northeastern part of the Deryugin trough. Considering Mn distribution in bottom sediment cores supply of Mn was pulsating. This allows concluding that during Holocene - Late Pleistocene three cycles of hydrothermal activity occurred in the Deryugin Trough, and the most intensive one was in Holocene.

Chronology and stable carbon isotopic ratios of sediments from the Western Pacific Warm Pool region

Instrumental data suggest that major shifts in tropical Pacific atmospheric dynamics and hydrology have occurred within the past century, potentially in response to anthropogenic warming. To better understand these trends, we use the hydrogen isotopic ratios of terrestrial higher plant leaf waxes (DDwax) in marine sediments from southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, to compile a detailed reconstruction of central Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) hydrologic variability spanning most of the last two millennia. Our paleodata are highly correlated with a monsoon reconstruction from Southeast Asia, indicating that intervals of strong East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) activity are associated with a weaker Indonesian monsoon (IM). Furthermore, the centennial-scale oscillations in our data follow known changes in Northern Hemisphere climate (e.g., the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period) implying a dynamic link between Northern Hemisphere temperatures and IPWP hydrology. The inverse relationship between the EASM and IM suggests that migrations of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and associated changes in monsoon strength caused synoptic hydrologic shifts in the IPWP throughout most of the past two millennia.

Abundance of nodules, chemical and mineral compositions of nodules and sediments from the Central Pacific

The monograph considers facial conditions of ore-formation in the Central Equatorial Pacific, as well as lithostratigraphy and local variability of bottom sediments. Mineral composition of nodules, forms of occurrence of chemical elements in sediments and nodules, composition of interstitial waters, age of nodules, regularities and processes of ore formation in the radiolarian belt of the Pacific Ocean zone are also under consideration.

Contents of P2O5, Corg, Sr, and Ba in phosphorites and host sediments from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans

Sr contents in phosphorites on shelves of the Southwest Africa, and of Chile and Peru increase with degree of their lithification, from 0.05 to 0.28% and from 0.13 to 0.16% respectively. Phosphorites from Pacific submarine seamounts have the average Sr content 0.11%, and bone phosphate from Pacific floor 0.13%. Shelf phosphorites are characterized by high correlation coefficients between Sr and P2O5 (R = +0.82) and constant Sr/P2O5 ratio (0.0084). In phosphorites from submarine sea-mounts and in bones from the ocean floor Sr/P2O5 ratio is only a little higher than a half of that in shelf phosphorites. This indicates specific and different genesis of phosphorites from submarine mountains. Ba content in recent phosphorites from the shelf of the Southwest Africa changes with increasing degree of lithification. At first their Ba contents rise from 0.031 to 0.188%, then they diminish to 0.016%, and thereafter again increase to 0.070%. This is due to successive predominance of one of the following processes going in different directions: co-precipitation with phosphate gels or formation of true separate Ba phase, loss of phosphate in crystallization and "self-purification" of concentrations, and surface adsorption. In Peru-Chile shelf phosphorites the average Ba content is 0.017%, in phosphorites from Pacific seamounts 0.192%, and in fossilized bones 0.010%.

Pb concentrations, Pb isotopic composition, and amount of metalliferous components in pelagic sediments from the Pacific Ocean

The amount of lead annually transferred from oceanic crust to metalliferous sediments was estimated in order to test the hypothesis that a non-magmatic flux of lead causes the Pb surplus in the continental crust. A Pb surplus has been inferred from global crust-mantle lead mass balances derived from lead concentration correlations with other trace elements and from lead isotope systematics in oceanic basalts. DSDP/ODP data on the amount of metalliferous sediments in the Pacific Ocean and along a South Atlantic traverse are used to calculate the mean worldwide thickness of 3 (+/-1) m for purely metalliferous sediment componens. Lead isotope ratios of 39 metalliferous sediments from the Pacific define mixing lines between continent-derived (seawater) and mantle-derived (basaltic) lead, with the most metal-rich sediments usually having the most mantle-like Pb isotope composition. We used this isotope correlation and the Pb content of the 39 metalliferous sediments to derive an estimate of 130 (+/-70) µg/g for the concentration of mantle-derived lead in the purely metalliferous end-member. Mass balance calculations show that at least 12 (+/-8)% of the lead, annually transferred from upper mantle to oceanic crust at the ocean ridges, is leached out by hydrothermal processes and re-deposited in marine sediments. If all of the metalliferous lead is ultimately transferred to the continental crust during subduction, the annual flux of this lead from mantle to continental crust is 2.6 (+/-2.0) * 10**6 kg. Assuming this transfer rate to be proportional to the rate of oceanic plate production, one can fit the lead transfer to models of plate production rate variations through time. Integrating over 4 Ga, hydrothermal lead transfer to the continental crust accounts for a significant portion of the Pb surplus in the continental crust. It therefore appears to be one of the main reasons for the anomalous behavior of lead in the global crust-mantle system.

Element analyses and isotope composition of basalts from the West Valley segment, Juan de Fuca Ridge, northeast Pacific

The 50 km-long West Valley segment of the northern Juan de Fuca Ridge is a young, extension-dominated spreading centre, with volcanic activity concentrated in its southern half. A suite of basalts dredged from the West Valley floor, the adjacent Heck Seamount chain, and a small near-axis cone here named Southwest Seamount, includes a spectrum of geochemical compositions ranging from highly depleted normal (N-) MORB to enriched (E-) MORB. Heck Seamount lavas have chondrite-normalized La/Sm en -0.3, 87Sr/86Sr = 0.70235 - 0.70242, and 206Pb/204Pb = 18.22 - 18.44, requiring a source which is highly depleted in trace elements both at the time of melt generation and over geologic time. The E-MORB from Southwest Seamount have La/Sm en -1.8, 87Sr/86Sr = 0.70245 - 0.70260, and 206Pb/204Pb = 18.73 - 19.15, indicating a more enriched source. Basalts from the West Valley floor have chemical compositions intermediate between these two end-members. As a group, West Valley basalts from a two-component mixing array in element-element and element-isotope plots which is best explained by magma mixing. Evidence for crustal-level magma mixing in some basalts includes mineral-melt chemical and isotopic disequilibrium, but mixing of melts at depth (within the mantle) may also occur. The mantle beneath the northern Juan de Fuca Ridge is modelled as a plum-pudding, with "plums" of enriched, amphibole-bearing peridotite floating in a depleted matrix (DM). Low degrees of melting preferentially melt the "plums", initially removing only the amphibole component and producing alkaline to transitional E-MORB. Higher degrees of melting tap both the "plums" and the depleted matrix to yield N-MORB. The subtly different isotopic compositions of the E-MORBs compared to the N-MORBs require that any enriched component in the upper mantle was derived from a depleted source. If the enriched component crystallized from fluids with a DM source, the "plums" could evolve to their more evolved isotopic composition after a period of 1.5-2.0 Ga. Alternatively, the enriched component could have formed recently from fluids with a lessdepleted source than DM, such as subducted oceanic crust. A third possibility is that enriched material might be dispersed as "plums" throughout the upper mantle, transported from depth by mantle plumes.