Las opciones reales como herramienta de valoración de proyectos

La presente tesis tiene como propósito dar a conocer una forma de valoración de proyectos dinámica, lejos de lo que se utiliza en la actualidad que es el flujo de fondos descontados, el cual no permite que el proyecto se adapte a las posibles realidades que se presenten en la marcha. El documento consta de 4 capítulos. El capítulo uno, da a conocer que es un proyecto de inversión y explica la valoración tradicional, con los conceptos de Valor Actual Neto y Tasa Interna de Retorno. Se plantea tanto un análisis determinístico realizado con la ayuda de hojas electrónicas Excel y dinámico de la mano del programa de simulación Crystal Ball, finalmente se revisan las ventajas que ofrece esta metodología de valoración. El capítulo dos se refiere a los derivados financieros, centrando la atención en las opciones, concepto, tipos, variables que influyen en su precio y estrategias, posteriormente se introduce el tema de las opciones reales y la relación que tienen con las financieras. El capítulo tres refleja el objetivo de la tesis, porque presenta las formas de valoración mediante opciones reales, primero se desarrolla el modelo binomial y luego el de Black and Scholes, también se presenta las ventajas frente al modelo de flujos descontados y los problemas que la metodología de opciones reales presenta. Finalmente en el capítulo cuatro se desarrolla un caso práctico de valoración con el método de flujos descontados determinístico y estocástico y con los dos modelos antes mencionados de opciones reales.

Análisis de riesgo de un proyecto de inversión de generación eléctrica en el Ecuador

El Sector Eléctrico constituye parte fundamental en el desarrollo del país, cada proyecto que se realice implica un aporte considerable en beneficio del país, al mismo tiempo representa un esfuerzo económico importante. Realizar un correcto análisis de riesgo es primordial al momento de planificar el desarrollo de un proyecto. El Sector Eléctrico está clasificado en 3 partes, Generación, Transmisión y Distribución. Para este trabajo se considera la Generación. Los casos de estudio son considerados con información histórica y herramientas de análisis de riesgo que son de gran utilidad para este tipo de trabajos. Durante el desarrollo de esta investigación se analiza la estructura del Sector Eléctrico, su operatividad financiera, teorías sobre análisis de riesgo, herramientas y metodologías que serán aplicadas para las particularidades del Sector. Para obtener resultados más cercanos a la realidad se utiliza la metodología Monte Carlo utilizando la herramienta Crystal Ball. Con esto se presentan datos de un proyecto de generación x y se evidencia la factibilidad o no de invertir en el Sector Eléctrico.

Comparison of stochastic parametrization approaches in a single-column model

We discuss and test the potential usefulness of single-column models (SCMs) for the testing of stchastic physics schemes that have been proposed for use in general circulation models (GCMs). We argue that although single column tests cannot be definitive in exposing the full behaviour of a stochastic method in the full GCM, and although there are differences between SCM testing of deterministic and stochastic methods, nonetheless SCM testing remains a useful tool. It is necessary to consider an ensemble of SCM runs produced by the stochastic method. These can be usefully compared to deterministic ensembles describing initial condition uncertainty and also to combinations of these (with structural model changes) into poor man's ensembles. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using an SCM experiment recently developed by the GCSS community, simulating the transitions between active and suppressed periods of tropical convection.

Two daily smoke maxima in eighteenth century London air

Varied electrostatics experiments followed Benjamin Franklin's pioneering atmospheric investigations. In Knightsbridge, Central London, John Read (1726–1814) installed a sensing rod in the upper part of his house and, using a pith ball electrometer and Franklin chimes, monitored atmospheric electricity from 1789 to 1791. Atmospheric electricity is sensitive to weather and smoke pollution. In calm weather conditions, Read observed two daily electrification maxima in moderate weather, around 9 am and 7 pm. This is likely to represent a double diurnal cycle in urban smoke. Before the motor car and steam railways, one source of the double maximum smoke pattern was the daily routine of fire lighting for domestic heating.

Comparison of stochastic parameterisation approaches in a single-column model

We discuss and test the potential usefulness of single-column models (SCMs) for the testing of stochastic physics schemes that have been proposed for use in general circulation models (GCMs). We argue that although single column tests cannot be definitive in exposing the full behaviour of a stochastic method in the full GCM, and although there are differences between SCM testing of deterministic and stochastic methods, SCM testing remains a useful tool. It is necessary to consider an ensemble of SCM runs produced by the stochastic method. These can be usefully compared to deterministic ensembles describing initial condition uncertainty and also to combinations of these (with structural model changes) into poor man's ensembles. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using an SCM experiment recently developed by the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) community, simulating transitions between active and suppressed periods of tropical convection.

Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe): the tropical North Atlantic experiments

The NERC UK SOLAS-funded Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe) programme comprised three field experiments. This manuscript presents an overview of the measurements made within the two simultaneous remote experiments conducted in the tropical North Atlantic in May and June 2007. Measurements were made from two mobile and one ground-based platforms. The heavily instrumented cruise D319 on the RRS Discovery from Lisbon, Portugal to São Vicente, Cape Verde and back to Falmouth, UK was used to characterise the spatial distribution of boundary layer components likely to play a role in reactive halogen chemistry. Measurements onboard the ARSF Dornier aircraft were used to allow the observations to be interpreted in the context of their vertical distribution and to confirm the interpretation of atmospheric structure in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands. Long-term ground-based measurements at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) on São Vicente were supplemented by long-term measurements of reactive halogen species and characterisation of additional trace gas and aerosol species during the intensive experimental period. This paper presents a summary of the measurements made within the RHaMBLe remote experiments and discusses them in their meteorological and chemical context as determined from these three platforms and from additional meteorological analyses. Air always arrived at the CVAO from the North East with a range of air mass origins (European, Atlantic and North American continental). Trace gases were present at stable and fairly low concentrations with the exception of a slight increase in some anthropogenic components in air of North American origin, though NOx mixing ratios during this period remained below 20 pptv. Consistency with these air mass classifications is observed in the time series of soluble gas and aerosol composition measurements, with additional identification of periods of slightly elevated dust concentrations consistent with the trajectories passing over the African continent. The CVAO is shown to be broadly representative of the wider North Atlantic marine boundary layer; measurements of NO, O3 and black carbon from the ship are consistent with a clean Northern Hemisphere marine background. Aerosol composition measurements do not indicate elevated organic material associated with clean marine air. Closer to the African coast, black carbon and NO levels start to increase, indicating greater anthropogenic influence. Lower ozone in this region is possibly associated with the increased levels of measured halocarbons, associated with the nutrient rich waters of the Mauritanian upwelling. Bromide and chloride deficits in coarse mode aerosol at both the CVAO and on D319 and the continuous abundance of inorganic gaseous halogen species at CVAO indicate significant reactive cycling of halogens. Aircraft measurements of O3 and CO show that surface measurements are representative of the entire boundary layer in the vicinity both in diurnal variability and absolute levels. Above the inversion layer similar diurnal behaviour in O3 and CO is observed at lower mixing ratios in the air that had originated from south of Cape Verde, possibly from within the ITCZ. ECMWF calculations on two days indicate very different boundary layer depths and aircraft flights over the ship replicate this, giving confidence in the calculated boundary layer depth.

Radar scattering by aggregate snowflakes

The radar scattering properties of realistic aggregate snowflakes have been calculated using the Rayleigh-Gans theory. We find that the effect of the snowflake geometry on the scattering may be described in terms of a single universal function, which depends only on the overall shape of the aggregate and not the geometry or size of the pristine ice crystals which compose the flake. This function is well approximated by a simple analytic expression at small sizes; for larger snowflakes we fit a curve to Our numerical data. We then demonstrate how this allows a characteristic snowflake radius to be derived from dual wavelength radar measurements without knowledge of the pristine crystal size or habit, while at the same time showing that this detail is crucial to using such data to estimate ice water content. We also show that the 'effective radius'. characterizing the ratio of particle volume to projected area, cannot be inferred from dual wavelength radar data for aggregates. Finally, we consider the errors involved in approximating snowflakes by 'air-ice spheres', and show that for small enough aggregates the predicted dual wavelength ratio typically agrees to within a few percent, provided some care is taken in choosing the radius of the sphere and the dielectric constant of the air-ice mixture; at larger sizes the radar becomes more sensitive to particle shape, and the errors associated with the sphere model are found to increase accordingly.

Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows

Previous attempts to apply statistical models, which correlate nutrient intake with methane production, have been of limited. value where predictions are obtained for nutrient intakes and diet types outside those. used in model construction. Dynamic mechanistic models have proved more suitable for extrapolation, but they remain computationally expensive and are not applied easily in practical situations. The first objective of this research focused on employing conventional techniques to generate statistical models of methane production appropriate to United Kingdom dairy systems. The second objective was to evaluate these models and a model published previously using both United Kingdom and North American data sets. Thirdly, nonlinear models were considered as alternatives to the conventional linear regressions. The United Kingdom calorimetry data used to construct the linear models also were used to develop the three. nonlinear alternatives that were ball of modified Mitscherlich (monomolecular) form. Of the linear models tested,, an equation from the literature proved most reliable across the full range of evaluation data (root mean square prediction error = 21.3%). However, the Mitscherlich models demonstrated the greatest degree of adaptability across diet types and intake level. The most successful model for simulating the independent data was a modified Mitscherlich equation with the steepness parameter set to represent dietary starch-to-ADF ratio (root mean square prediction error = 20.6%). However, when such data were unavailable, simpler Mitscherlich forms relating dry matter or metabolizable energy intake to methane production remained better alternatives relative to their linear counterparts.

Broadly neutralizing antibodies protect against hepatitis C virus quasispecies challenge

A major problem in hepatitis C virus (HCV) immunotherapy or vaccine design is the extreme variability of the virus. We identified human monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that neutralize genetically diverse HCV isolates and protect against heterologous HCV quasispecies challenge in a human liver-chimeric mouse model. The results provide evidence that broadly neutralizing antibodies to HCV protect against heterologous viral infection and suggest that a prophylactic vaccine against HCV may be achievable.

The effect of learning condition on perceptual anticipation, awareness, and visual search

The efficacy of explicit and implicit learning paradigms was examined during the very early stages of learning the perceptual-motor anticipation task of predicting ball direction from temporally occluded footage of soccer penalty kicks. In addition, the effect of instructional condition on point-of-gaze during learning was examined. A significant improvement in horizontal prediction accuracy was observed in the explicit learning group; however, similar improvement was evident in a placebo group who watched footage of soccer matches. Only the explicit learning intervention resulted in changes in eye movement behaviour and increased awareness of relevant postural cues. Results are discussed in terms of methodological and practical issues regarding the employment of implicit perceptual training interventions. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coding of visual space during motor preparation: approaching objects rapidly modulate corticospinal excitability in hand-centered coordinates

Defensive behaviors, such as withdrawing your hand to avoid potentially harmful approaching objects, rely on rapid sensorimotor transformations between visual and motor coordinates. We examined the reference frame for coding visual information about objects approaching the hand during motor preparation. Subjects performed a simple visuomanual task while a task-irrelevant distractor ball rapidly approached a location either near to or far from their hand. After the distractor ball appearance, single pulses of transcranial magnetic stimulation were delivered over the subject's primary motor cortex, eliciting motor evoked potentials (MEPs) in their responding hand. MEP amplitude was reduced when the ball approached near the responding hand, both when the hand was on the left and the right of the midline. Strikingly, this suppression occurred very early, at 70-80ms after ball appearance, and was not modified by visual fixation location. Furthermore, it was selective for approaching balls, since static visual distractors did not modulate MEP amplitude. Together with additional behavioral measurements, we provide converging evidence for automatic hand-centered coding of visual space in the human brain.

Interceptive timing: prior knowledge matters

Fast interceptive actions, such as catching a ball, rely upon accurate and precise information from vision. Recent models rely on flexible combinations of visual angle and its rate of expansion of which the tau parameter is a specific case. When an object approaches an observer, however, its trajectory may introduce bias into tau-like parameters that render these computations unacceptable as the sole source of information for actions. Here we show that observer knowledge of object size influences their action timing, and known size combined with image expansion simplifies the computations required to make interceptive actions and provides a route for experience to influence interceptive action.