882 resultados para Bayesian model selection


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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar a herdabilidade e as correlações genéticas entre escores visuais e características reprodutivas de animais da raça Nelore. As características avaliadas foram: precocidade, musculatura, e escores de conformação à desmama (PD, MD e CD, respectivamente) e ao sobreano (PS, MS e CS, respectivamente); idade ao primeiro parto (IPP); e perímetro escrotal (PE). Foram utilizadas informações de 66.244 animais, nascidos entre 1990 e 2006. Os parâmetros genéticos foram estimados em análises bicaracterísticas, com inferência bayesiana. Foi utilizado um modelo linear para IPP e PE, e um modelo não linear (threshold) para os escores visuais. As herdabilidades estimadas foram: CD, 0,19±0,02; PD, 0,23±0,02; MD, 0,20±0,02; CS, 0,26±0,01; PS, 0,33±0,02; MS, 0,32±0,02; IPP, 0,16±0,03; e PE, 0,36±0,02. As correlações genéticas estimadas entre os escores visuais e IPP foram negativas, de -0,18±0,03 a -0,29±0,02. Correlações genéticas positivas foram obtidas entre os escores visuais e o PE, de 0,19±0,01 a 0,31±0,01. A seleção de animais com os maiores escores visuais, principalmente ao sobreano, permite melhorar o desempenho reprodutivo dos rebanhos

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Objetivou-se, com este trabalho, estimar a herdabilidade (h²) para prenhez de novilhas e sua correlação genética (rg) com idade ao primeiro parto (IPP), em animais da raça Nelore. A prenhez de novilhas foi definida de três formas: prenhez aos 16 meses (Pr16) - para as novilhas que pariram com menos de 31 meses, atribuiu-se 1 (sucesso) e, para aquelas que pariram após 30,99 meses ou que não pariram, atribuiu-se 0 (fracasso); prenhez aos 24 meses (Pr24) - para as novilhas que pariram até 46 meses (incluindo as Pr16), foi atribuído 1 e, para aquelas que não pariram 0; e prenhez da novilha (PrN) - atribuiu-se classificação 2 para as que pariram com menos de 31 meses, 1 para as que pariram entre 31 e 46 meses e 0 para as que não pariram. Os arquivos, analisados pelo Método R e Inferência Bayesiana, continham registros de 30.802 novilhas desmamadas. As análises forneceram médias de estimativas de h² de 0,52, 0,12 e 0,16 para Pr16, Pr24 e PrN, respectivamente, pelo Método R. O valor médio obtido por Inferência Bayesiana foi de 0,45 para Pr16. A rg estimada entre Pr16 e IPP foi -0,32. Os resultados indicam que, para selecionar para precocidade sexual, é necessário expor todas as fêmeas em idades jovens e que a mensuração da taxa de prenhez por meio da Pr16 é pertinente, uma vez que esta característica apresenta variabilidade genética alta e deve responder eficientemente à seleção com possibilidades de rápido ganho genético. A análise indicou também que Pr16 e IPP são determinadas em grande parte por genes diferentes.

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Um total de 19.770 pesos corporais de bovinos Guzerá, do nascimento aos 365 dias de idade, pertencentes ao banco de dados da Associação Brasileira dos Criadores de Zebu (ABCZ) foi analisado com os objetivos de comparar diferentes estruturas de variâncias residuais, considerando 1, 18, 28 e 53 classes residuais e funções de variância de ordens quadrática a quíntica; e estimar funções de co-variância de diferentes ordens para os efeitos genético aditivo direto, genético materno, de ambiente permanente de animal e de mãe e parâmetros genéticos para os pesos corporais usando modelos de regressão aleatória. Os efeitos aleatórios foram modelados por regressões polinomiais em escala de Legendre com ordens variando de linear a quártica. Os modelos foram comparados pelo teste de razão de verossimilhança e pelos critérios de Informação de Akaike e de Informação Bayesiano de Schwarz. O modelo com 18 classes heterogêneas foi o que melhor se ajustou às variâncias residuais, de acordo com os testes estatísticos, porém, o modelo com função de variância de quinta ordem também mostrou-se apropriado. Os valores de herdabilidade direta estimados foram maiores que os encontrados na literatura, variando de 0,04 a 0,53, mas seguiram a mesma tendência dos estimados pelas análises unicaracterísticas. A seleção para peso em qualquer idade melhoraria o peso em todas as idades no intervalo estudado.

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The objectives of the current study were to investigate the additive genetic associations between heifer pregnancy at 16 months of age (HP16) and age at first calving (AFC) with weight gain from birth to weaning (WG), yearling weight (YW) and mature weight (MW), in order to verify the possibility of using the traits measured directly in females as selection criteria for the genetic improvement of sexual precocity in Nelore cattle. (Co)variance components were estimated by Bayesian inference using a linear animal model for AFC, WG, YW and MW and a nonlinear (threshold) animal model for HP16. The posterior means of direct heritability estimates were: 0.45 +/- 0.02; 0.10 +/- 0.01; 023 +/- 0.02; 0.36 +/- 0.01 and 0.39 +/- 0.04, for HP16, AFC, WG, YW and MW, respectively. Maternal heritability estimate for WG was 0.07 +/- 0.01. Genetic correlations estimated between HP16 and WG, YW and MW were 0.19 +/- 0.04; 0.25 +/- 0.06 and 0.14 +/- 0.05, respectively. The genetic correlations of AFC with WG, YW and MW were low to moderate and negative, with values of -0.18 +/- 0.06; -0.22 +/- 0.05 and -0.12 +/- 0.05, respectively. The high heritability estimated for HP16 suggests that this trait seem to be a better selection criterion for females sexual precocity than AFC. Long-term selection for animals that are heavier at young ages tends to improve the heifers sexual precocity evaluated by HP16 or AFC. Predicted breeding values for HP16 can be used to select bulls and it can lead to an improvement in sexual precocity. The inclusion of HP16 in a selection index will result in small or no response for females mature weight. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance components using random regression on B-spline functions to weight records obtained from birth to adulthood. A total of 82 064 weight records of 8145 females obtained from the data bank of the Nellore Breeding Program (PMGRN/Nellore Brazil) which started in 1987, were used. The models included direct additive and maternal genetic effects and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariate. The random effects were modeled using B-spline functions considering linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment. Residual variances were grouped in five age classes. Direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using up to seven knots (six segments). A single segment with two knots at the end points of the curve was used for the estimation of maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. A total of 15 models were studied, with the number of parameters ranging from 17 to 81. The models that used B-splines were compared with multi-trait analyses with nine weight traits and to a random regression model that used orthogonal Legendre polynomials. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most appropriate and parsimonious model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Selection for higher weight, such as at young ages, should be performed taking into account an increase in mature cow weight. Particularly, this is important in most of Nellore beef cattle production systems, where the cow herd is maintained on range conditions. There is limited modification of the growth curve of Nellore cattle with respect to the aim of selecting them for rapid growth at young ages while maintaining constant adult weight.

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The objective of this study was to apply factor analysis to describe lactation curves in dairy buffaloes in order to estimate the phenotypic and genetic association between common latent factors and cumulative milk yield. A total of 31 257 monthly test-day milk yield records from buffaloes belonging to herds located in the state of São Paulo were used to estimate two common latent factors, which were then analysed in a multi-trait animal model for estimating genetic parameters. Estimates of (co)variance components for the two common latent factors and cumulated 270-d milk yield were obtained by Bayesian inference using a multiple trait animal model. Contemporary group, number of milkings per day (two levels) and age of buffalo cow at calving (linear and quadratic) as covariate were included in the model as fixed effects. The additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual effects were included as random effects. The first common latent factor (F1) was associated with persistency of lactation and the second common latent factor (F2) with the level of production in early lactation. Heritability estimates for Fl and F2 were 0.12 and 0.07, respectively. Genetic correlation estimates between El and F2 with cumulative milk yield were positive and moderate (0.63 and 0.52). Multivariate statistics employing factor analysis allowed the extraction of two variables (latent factors) that described the shape of the lactation curve. It is expected that the response to selection to increase lactation persistency is higher than the response obtained from selecting animals to increase lactation peak. Selection for higher total milk yield would result in a favourable correlated response to increase the level of production in early lactation and the lactation persistency.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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High (H) and low (L) responder mice were selected for their ability to produce antibodies against sheep and human erythrocytes (Selection IV-A). In this selection, the difference in antibody responsiveness between H and L lines (HIV-A and LIV-A mice, respectively) was shown to depend mainly on macrophage function. The more rapid catabolism of antigens by macrophages in L mice has been suggested as the main cause of the low antibody production. Due to this high macrophage activity, L animals have been described as more resistant than H animals to intracellular pathogens. These animals were utilized as an experimental model of paracoccidioidomycosis. HIV-A and LIV-A mice were infected with Paracoccidioides brasiliensis by the intravenous route. As expected, H mice were more susceptible to P. brasiliensis with a shorter survival time and higher levels of specific antibodies when compared to L mice. Contrasting with the survival time, the lungs, spleen and liver from H mice showed typical nodular granulomas containing epithelioid and giant cells and few fungi. on the other hand, in LN-A mice, the lesions of these organs were characterized by looser granulomas with irregular borders and the presence of a large number of fungi, However, the adrenal gland showed different lesion patterns. In H mice these lesions were extensive and characterized by loose granulomas with numerous fungi, while in LIV-A mice the lesions were small and limited to the cortex. Moreover the HIV-A mice presented higher levels of serum corticosterone when compared to LIV-A ones. The higher susceptibility of H mice could be attributed to the extensive lesions of the adrenal glands. These results suggest the use of the H line from the IV-A Selection as an experimental model for further studies of adrenal involvement in paracoccidioidomycosis.

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The aim of this work was to present organizational models for optimizing the reduction of crop residue generated by the sugarcane culture. The first model consisted of the selection of varieties of sugarcane to be planted meeting the mill requirements and, at the same time, to minimize the quantity of residue produced. The second model discussed the use of residue to produce energy. This is related to the selection of variety and quantity to be planted, in order to meet the requirements of the mill, to reduce the quantity of residue, and to maximize as much as possible the energy production. The use of linear programming was proposed. The two models presented similar results in this study, and both may be used to define the varieties and areas to be cultivated. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier B.V. Ltd.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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We studied the succession of small mammal species after fire in the cerrado (Neotropical savanna) of Central Brazil. Populations of small mammals were sampled with live-trapping techniques in a series of nine sites of different successional age, ranging from 1 to 26 years after fire. Ten species of small mammals were captured through all the seral stages of succession. Species richness ranged from two to seven species by seral stage. The species were arranged in different groups with respect to abundance along the succession: the first was composed of early successional species that peaked <2 years after fire (Calomys callosus, C. tener, Thalpomys cerradensis, Mus musculus, Thylamys velutinus); the second occurred or peaked 2-3 years after fire (Necromys lasiurus, Gracilinanus sp., Oryzomys scoth). Gracilinanus agilis peaked in the last seral stage. Species richness of small mammals showed an abrupt decrease from an average of four species immediately after fire to two species 5-26 years after the last fire. We propose a simple graphical model to explain the pattern of species richness of small mammals after fire in the cerrado. This model assumes that the occurrence of species of small mammals is determined by habitat selection behavior by each species along a habitat gradient. The habitat gradient is defined as the ratio of cover of herbaceous to woody vegetation. The replacement of species results from a trade-off in habitat requirements for the two habitat variables.

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This work deals with noise removal by the use of an edge preserving method whose parameters are automatically estimated, for any application, by simply providing information about the standard deviation noise level we wish to eliminate. The desired noiseless image u(x), in a Partial Differential Equation based model, can be viewed as the solution of an evolutionary differential equation u t(x) = F(u xx, u x, u, x, t) which means that the true solution will be reached when t ® ¥. In practical applications we should stop the time ''t'' at some moment during this evolutionary process. This work presents a sufficient condition, related to time t and to the standard deviation s of the noise we desire to remove, which gives a constant T such that u(x, T) is a good approximation of u(x). The approach here focused on edge preservation during the noise elimination process as its main characteristic. The balance between edge points and interior points is carried out by a function g which depends on the initial noisy image u(x, t0), the standard deviation of the noise we want to eliminate and a constant k. The k parameter estimation is also presented in this work therefore making, the proposed model automatic. The model's feasibility and the choice of the optimal time scale is evident through out the various experimental results.

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Females of some Thomisidae species are known to use visual and olfactory stimuli to select high quality hunting sites. However, because studies about foraging behavior in this family are concentrated on a few species, the comprehension of the process related to hunting behavior evolution in crab spiders may be biased. In this study we investigated the hunting site selection of a previously unstudied crab spider, Epicadus heterogaster. We performed three experiments to evaluate the hypothesis that subadult females are able to use visual and olfactory stimuli to select hunting sites. In the first experiment, females did not preferentially select flower paper models that matched their body coloration. However, after choosing a model that had the same body color as the spider, they remained on it for longer periods than on models with different colors. In the second experiment, females did not discriminate between flower paper models, natural flower models and crumpled paper models. Females did also not discriminate among different olfactory stimuli in the third experiment. It is possible that subadult females of E. heterogaster need to establish and experience a given hunting site before evaluating its quality. However, it remains to be investigated if they use UV cues to select a foraging area before experiencing it.