Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks (Part 2): bayesian evaluations for results of black toner analyses in forensic document examination

This paper presents and discusses the use of Bayesian procedures - introduced through the use of Bayesian networks in Part I of this series of papers - for 'learning' probabilities from data. The discussion will relate to a set of real data on characteristics of black toners commonly used in printing and copying devices. Particular attention is drawn to the incorporation of the proposed procedures as an integral part in probabilistic inference schemes (notably in the form of Bayesian networks) that are intended to address uncertainties related to particular propositions of interest (e.g., whether or not a sample originates from a particular source). The conceptual tenets of the proposed methodologies are presented along with aspects of their practical implementation using currently available Bayesian network software.

Evaluation of free libraries for visual recognition of art imagery on mobile devices

This paper describes a systematic research about free software solutions and techniques for art imagery computer recognition problem.

Bayesian nash equilibrium in ''linear'' cournot models with private information about costs

Calculating explicit closed form solutions of Cournot models where firms have private information about their costs is, in general, very cumbersome. Most authors consider therefore linear demands and constant marginal costs. However, within this framework, the nonnegativity constraint on prices (and quantities) has been ignored or not properly dealt with and the correct calculation of all Bayesian Nash equilibria is more complicated than expected. Moreover, multiple symmetric and interior Bayesianf equilibria may exist for an open set of parameters. The reason for this is that linear demand is not really linear, since there is a kink at zero price: the general ''linear'' inverse demand function is P (Q) = max{a - bQ, 0} rather than P (Q) = a - bQ.

Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of geophysical data for the purpose of estimating the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties of the vadose zone because of their strong sensitivity to soil water content. In particular, recent evidence has suggested that the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR data within a coupled geophysical-hydrological framework may allow for effective estimation of subsurface van-Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. An important and still unresolved issue, however, is how to best integrate GPR data into a stochastic inversion in order to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first introduce a fully Bayesian inversion called Markov-chain-Monte-carlo (MCMC) strategy to perform the stochastic inversion of steady-state GPR data to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties. Within this study, the choice of the prior parameter probability distributions from which potential model configurations are drawn and tested against observed data was also investigated. Analysis of both synthetic and field data collected at the Eggborough (UK) site indicates that the geophysical data alone contain valuable information regarding the VGM parameters. However, significantly better results are obtained when these data are combined with a realistic, informative prior. A subsequent study explore in detail the dynamic infiltration case, specifically to what extent time-lapse ZOP GPR data, collected during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arrenaes field site (Denmark), can help to quantify VGM parameters and their uncertainties using the MCMC inversion strategy. The findings indicate that the stochastic inversion of time-lapse GPR data does indeed allow for a substantial refinement in the inferred posterior VGM parameter distributions. In turn, this significantly improves knowledge of the hydraulic properties, which are required to predict hydraulic behaviour. Finally, another aspect that needed to be addressed involved the comparison of time-lapse GPR data collected under different infiltration conditions (i.e., natural loading and forced infiltration conditions) to estimate the VGM parameters using the MCMC inversion strategy. The results show that for the synthetic example, considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions. When investigating data collected at the Arrenaes field site, further complications arised due to model error and showed the importance of also including a rigorous analysis of the propagation of model error with time and depth when considering time-lapse data. Although the efforts in this thesis were focused on GPR data, the corresponding findings are likely to have general applicability to other types of geophysical data and field environments. Moreover, the obtained results allow to have confidence for future developments in integration of geophysical data with stochastic inversions to improve the characterization of the unsaturated zone but also reveal important issues linked with stochastic inversions, namely model errors, that should definitely be addressed in future research.

Distribution of free and conjugated cannabinoids in human bile samples.

The metabolism of Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is relatively complex, and over 80 metabolites have been identified. However, much less is known about the formation and fate of cannabinoid conjugates. Bile excretion is known to be an important route for the elimination of phase II metabolites. A liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry LC-MS/MS procedure for measuring cannabinoids in oral fluid was adapted, validated and applied to 10 bile samples. THC, 11-hydroxy-Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (11-OH-THC), 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THCCOOH), cannabinol (CBN), cannabidiol (CBD), Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinolic acid A (THC-A), 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol glucuronide (THCCOOH-gluc) and Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol glucuronide (THC-gluc) were determined following solid-phase extraction and LC-MS/MS. High concentrations of THCCOOH-gluc were found in bile samples (range: 139-21,275 ng/mL). Relatively high levels of THCCOOH (7.7-1548 ng/mL) and THC-gluc (38-1366 ng/mL) were also measured. THC-A, the plant precursor of THC, was the only cannabinoid that was not detected. These results show that biliary excretion is an important route of elimination for cannabinoids conjugates and that their enterohepatic recirculation is a significant factor to consider when analyzing blood elimination profiles of cannabinoids. Furthermore, we suggest that the bile is the matrix of choice for the screening of phase II cannabinoid metabolites.

Effect of weight reduction in moderately overweight patients on recorded ambulatory blood pressure and free cytosolic platelet calcium.

Although platelet cytosolic calcium has been shown to decrease during pharmacological treatment of hypertension, there is no evidence that cytosolic calcium also falls during a nonpharmacological reduction in blood pressure. To provide such evidence, we examined prospectively the relation between platelet cytosolic calcium and ambulatory blood pressure during weight reduction in moderately overweight (body mass index [BMI] greater than 25), mildly hypertensive individuals. The experimental group (responders: BMI reduction greater than 5%) consisted of 19 patients who lost 8.5 +/- 2.9 kg (mean +/- SD, p less than 0.05) during a 10-week hypocaloric diet, whereas the control group (nonresponders: BMI reduction less than 5%) consisted of 12 patients who showed no relevant change in body weight (-2.0 +/- 1.3 kg) during the same period of time. The moderate weight loss of the responders decreased blood pressure by 14/5 mm Hg (p less than 0.05), as measured by ambulatory monitoring, which renders a placebo effect unlikely. This nonpharmacological reduction in blood pressure was accompanied by a proportional 11% decrease (p less than 0.05) in platelet cytosolic calcium and also by significant (p less than 0.05) decreases in plasma catecholamines and serum cholesterol. These findings establish the concept of a nonpharmacological reduction in free cytosolic platelet calcium in humans and add further evidence suggesting a link between intracellular calcium homeostasis and blood pressure regulation.

The building blocks of international ecological footprint inequality: a regression-based decomposition

This paper performs an empirical Decomposition of International Inequality in Ecological Footprint in order to quantify to what extent explanatory variables such as a country’s affluence, economic structure, demographic characteristics, climate and technology contributed to international differences in terms of natural resource consumption during the period 1993-2007. We use a Regression-Based Inequality Decomposition approach. As a result, the methodology extends qualitatively the results obtained in standard environmental impact regressions as it comprehends further social dimensions of the Sustainable Development concept, i.e. equity within generations. The results obtained point to prioritizing policies that take into account both future and present generations.

Androgen and gonadotropin patterns differ in HIV-1-infected men who develop lipoatrophy during antiretroviral therapy: a case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: We compared androgen and gonadotropin values in HIV-infected men who did and did not develop lipoatrophy on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: From a population of 136 treatment-naïve male Caucasians under successful zidovudine/lamivudine-based cART, the 10 patients developing lipoatrophy (cases) were compared with 87 randomly chosen controls. Plasma levels of free testosterone (fT), dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), follicle-stimulating hormone and luteinizing hormone (LH) were measured at baseline and after 2 years of cART. RESULTS: At baseline, 60% of the cases and 71% of the controls showed abnormally low fT values. LH levels were normal or low in 67 and 94% of the patients, respectively, indicating a disturbance of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. fT levels did not significantly change after 2 years of cART. Cases showed a significant increase in LH levels, while controls showed a significant increase in DHEA levels. In a multivariate logistic regression model, lipoatrophy was associated with higher baseline DHEA levels (P=0.04), an increase in LH levels during cART (P=0.001), a lower body mass index and greater age. CONCLUSIONS: Hypogonadism is present in the majority of HIV-infected patients. The development of cART-related lipoatrophy is associated with an increase in LH and a lack of increase in DHEA levels.

Penetrating or Stricturing Diseases are the Major Determinants of Time to First and Repeat Resection Surgery in Crohn's Disease.

Background: About 80% of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) require bowel resection and up to 65% will undergo a second resection within 10 years. This study reports clinical risk factors for resection surgery (RS) and repeat RS. Methods: Retrospective cohort study, using data from patients included in the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort. Cox regression analyses were performed to estimate rates of initial and repeated RS. Results: Out of 1,138 CD cohort patients, 417 (36.6%) had already undergone RS at the time of inclusion. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that the probability of being free of RS was 65% after 10 years, 42% after 20 years, and 23% after 40 years. Perianal involvement (PA) did not modify this probability to a significant extent. The main adjusted risk factors for RS were smoking at diagnosis (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.33; p = 0.006), stricturing with vs. without PA (HR = 4.91 vs. 4.11; p < 0.001) or penetrating disease with vs. without PA (HR = 3.53 vs. 4.58; p < 0.001). The risk factor for repeat RS was penetrating disease with vs. without PA (HR = 3.17 vs. 2.24; p < 0.05). Conclusion: The risk of RS was confirmed to be very high for CD in our cohort. Smoking status at diagnosis, but mostly penetrating and stricturing diseases increase the risk of RS.

Using a Bayesian method to assign individuals to karyotypic taxa in shrew hybrid zones.

Individuals sampled in hybrid zones are usually analysed according to their sampling locality, morphology, behaviour or karyotype. But the increasing availability of genetic information more and more favours its use for individual sorting purposes and numerous assignment methods based on the genetic composition of individuals have been developed. The shrews of the Sorex araneus group offer good opportunities to test the genetic assignment on individuals identified by their karyotype. Here we explored the potential and efficiency of a Bayesian assignment method combined or not with a reference dataset to study admixture and individual assignment in the difficult context of two hybrid zones between karyotypic species of the Sorex araneus group. As a whole, we assigned more than 80% of the individuals to their respective karyotypic categories (i.e. 'pure' species or hybrids). This assignment level is comparable to what was obtained for the same species away from hybrid zones. Additionally, we showed that the assignment result for several individuals was strongly affected by the inclusion or not of a reference dataset. This highlights the importance of such comparisons when analysing hybrid zones. Finally, differences between the admixture levels detected in both hybrid zones support the hypothesis of an impact of chromosomal rearrangements on gene flow.

The Building Blocks of International Ecological Footprint inequality: A Regression-Base Decomposition

This paper performs an empirical Decomposition of International Inequality in Ecological Footprint in order to quantify to what extent explanatory variables such as a country’s affluence, economic structure, demographic characteristics, climate and technology contributed to international differences in terms of natural resource consumption during the period 1993-2007. We use a Regression- Based Inequality Decomposition approach. As a result, the methodology extends qualitatively the results obtained in standard environmental impact regressions as it comprehends further social dimensions of the Sustainable Development concept, i.e. equity within generations. The results obtained point to prioritizing policies that take into account both future and present generations. Keywords: Ecological Footprint Inequality, Regression-Based Inequality Decomposition, Intragenerational equity, Sustainable development.

Intermittent atrial tachycardia promotes repolarization alternans and conduction slowing during rapid rates, and increases susceptibility to atrial fibrillation in a free-behaving sheep model.

INTRODUCTION: Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) may be triggered by intermittent atrial tachycardia, and ultimately lead to persistent AF. However, the mechanisms by which intermittent atrial tachycardia promotes sustained AF are not well understood. METHODS AND RESULTS: Eight sheep were chronically implanted with 2 pacemakers for the recording of broadband right atrial unipolar electrograms, and for the delivery of electrophysiological stimulation protocols and intermittent right atrial tachycardia. Right atrial kinetics of activation recovery interval (ARI) as a surrogate for action potential duration, of conduction time and velocity, and of repolarization alternans were analyzed at incremental pacing rates during the remodeling process induced by weeks of intermittent atrial tachycardia until the development of sustained AF. Intermittent atrial tachycardia decreased ARI and blunted its rate adaptation, facilitated atrial capture, and slowed conduction at high rates, and increased susceptibility to pacing-induced AF. In spite of blunted ARI rate adaptation, right atrial repolarization alternans was maintained during remodeling, and further increased in magnitude just before rapid pacing-induced AF. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that weeks of intermittent right atrial tachycardia result in a gradual electrical remodeling favorable for wavebreaks and reentry that may facilitate fibrillation.

Long-term ex vivo expansion of human fetal liver primitive haematopoietic progenitor cells in stroma-free cultures

Successful expansion of haematopoietic cells in ex vivo cultures will have important applications in transplantation, gene therapy, immunotherapy and potentially also in the production of non-haematopoietic cell types. Haematopoietic stem cells (HSC), with their capacity to both self-renew and differentiate into all blood lineages, represent the ideal target for expansion protocols. However, human HSC are rare, poorly characterized phenotypically and genotypically, and difficult to test functionally. Defining optimal culture parameters for ex vivo expansion has been a major challenge. We devised a simple and reproducible stroma-free liquid culture system enabling long-term expansion of putative haematopoietic progenitors contained within frozen human fetal liver (FL) crude cell suspensions. Starting from a small number of total nucleated cells, a massive haematopoietic cell expansion, reaching > 1013-fold the input cell number after approximately 300 d of culture, was consistently achieved. Cells with a primitive phenotype were present throughout the culture and also underwent a continuous expansion. Moreover, the capacity for multilineage lymphomyeloid differentiation, as well as the recloning capacity of primitive myeloid progenitors, was maintained in culture. With its better proliferative potential as compared with adult sources, FL represents a promising alternative source of HSC and the culture system described here should be useful for clinical applications.