Combining Information from Multiple Sources in Bayesian Modeling

Surveys can collect important data that inform policy decisions and drive social science research. Large government surveys collect information from the U.S. population on a wide range of topics, including demographics, education, employment, and lifestyle. Analysis of survey data presents unique challenges. In particular, one needs to account for missing data, for complex sampling designs, and for measurement error. Conceptually, a survey organization could spend lots of resources getting high-quality responses from a simple random sample, resulting in survey data that are easy to analyze. However, this scenario often is not realistic. To address these practical issues, survey organizations can leverage the information available from other sources of data. For example, in longitudinal studies that suffer from attrition, they can use the information from refreshment samples to correct for potential attrition bias. They can use information from known marginal distributions or survey design to improve inferences. They can use information from gold standard sources to correct for measurement error.

This thesis presents novel approaches to combining information from multiple sources that address the three problems described above.

The first method addresses nonignorable unit nonresponse and attrition in a panel survey with a refreshment sample. Panel surveys typically suffer from attrition, which can lead to biased inference when basing analysis only on cases that complete all waves of the panel. Unfortunately, the panel data alone cannot inform the extent of the bias due to attrition, so analysts must make strong and untestable assumptions about the missing data mechanism. Many panel studies also include refreshment samples, which are data collected from a random sample of new

individuals during some later wave of the panel. Refreshment samples offer information that can be utilized to correct for biases induced by nonignorable attrition while reducing reliance on strong assumptions about the attrition process. To date, these bias correction methods have not dealt with two key practical issues in panel studies: unit nonresponse in the initial wave of the panel and in the

refreshment sample itself. As we illustrate, nonignorable unit nonresponse

can significantly compromise the analyst's ability to use the refreshment samples for attrition bias correction. Thus, it is crucial for analysts to assess how sensitive their inferences---corrected for panel attrition---are to different assumptions about the nature of the unit nonresponse. We present an approach that facilitates such sensitivity analyses, both for suspected nonignorable unit nonresponse

in the initial wave and in the refreshment sample. We illustrate the approach using simulation studies and an analysis of data from the 2007-2008 Associated Press/Yahoo News election panel study.

The second method incorporates informative prior beliefs about

marginal probabilities into Bayesian latent class models for categorical data.

The basic idea is to append synthetic observations to the original data such that

(i) the empirical distributions of the desired margins match those of the prior beliefs, and (ii) the values of the remaining variables are left missing. The degree of prior uncertainty is controlled by the number of augmented records. Posterior inferences can be obtained via typical MCMC algorithms for latent class models, tailored to deal efficiently with the missing values in the concatenated data.

We illustrate the approach using a variety of simulations based on data from the American Community Survey, including an example of how augmented records can be used to fit latent class models to data from stratified samples.

The third method leverages the information from a gold standard survey to model reporting error. Survey data are subject to reporting error when respondents misunderstand the question or accidentally select the wrong response. Sometimes survey respondents knowingly select the wrong response, for example, by reporting a higher level of education than they actually have attained. We present an approach that allows an analyst to model reporting error by incorporating information from a gold standard survey. The analyst can specify various reporting error models and assess how sensitive their conclusions are to different assumptions about the reporting error process. We illustrate the approach using simulations based on data from the 1993 National Survey of College Graduates. We use the method to impute error-corrected educational attainments in the 2010 American Community Survey using the 2010 National Survey of College Graduates as the gold standard survey.

Building autonomous sensitive artificial listeners (Extended abstract)

This paper describes a substantial effort to build a real-time interactive multimodal dialogue system with a focus on emotional and non-verbal interaction capabilities. The work is motivated by the aim to provide technology with competences in perceiving and producing the emotional and non-verbal behaviours required to sustain a conversational dialogue. We present the Sensitive Artificial Listener (SAL) scenario as a setting which seems particularly suited for the study of emotional and non-verbal behaviour, since it requires only very limited verbal understanding on the part of the machine. This scenario allows us to concentrate on non-verbal capabilities without having to address at the same time the challenges of spoken language understanding, task modeling etc. We first summarise three prototype versions of the SAL scenario, in which the behaviour of the Sensitive Artificial Listener characters was determined by a human operator. These prototypes served the purpose of verifying the effectiveness of the SAL scenario and allowed us to collect data required for building system components for analysing and synthesising the respective behaviours. We then describe the fully autonomous integrated real-time system we created, which combines incremental analysis of user behaviour, dialogue management, and synthesis of speaker and listener behaviour of a SAL character displayed as a virtual agent. We discuss principles that should underlie the evaluation of SAL-type systems. Since the system is designed for modularity and reuse, and since it is publicly available, the SAL system has potential as a joint research tool in the affective computing research community.

Posterior Probability Modeling and Image Classification for Archaeological Site Prospection: Building a Survey Efficacy Model for Identifying Neolithic Felsite Workshops in the Shetland Islands

The application of custom classification techniques and posterior probability modeling (PPM) using Worldview-2 multispectral imagery to archaeological field survey is presented in this paper. Research is focused on the identification of Neolithic felsite stone tool workshops in the North Mavine region of the Shetland Islands in Northern Scotland. Sample data from known workshops surveyed using differential GPS are used alongside known non-sites to train a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifier based on a combination of datasets including Worldview-2 bands, band difference ratios (BDR) and topographical derivatives. Principal components analysis is further used to test and reduce dimensionality caused by redundant datasets. Probability models were generated by LDA using principal components and tested with sites identified through geological field survey. Testing shows the prospective ability of this technique and significance between 0.05 and 0.01, and gain statistics between 0.90 and 0.94, higher than those obtained using maximum likelihood and random forest classifiers. Results suggest that this approach is best suited to relatively homogenous site types, and performs better with correlated data sources. Finally, by combining posterior probability models and least-cost analysis, a survey least-cost efficacy model is generated showing the utility of such approaches to archaeological field survey.

Hybrid mathematical and informational modeling of beam-to-column connections

The analysis of steel and composite frames has traditionally been carried out by idealizing beam-to-column connections as either rigid or pinned. Although some advanced analysis methods have been proposed to account for semi-rigid connections, the performance of these methods strongly depends on the proper modeling of connection behavior. The primary challenge of modeling beam-to-column connections is their inelastic response and continuously varying stiffness, strength, and ductility. In this dissertation, two distinct approaches—mathematical models and informational models—are proposed to account for the complex hysteretic behavior of beam-to-column connections. The performance of the two approaches is examined and is then followed by a discussion of their merits and deficiencies. To capitalize on the merits of both mathematical and informational representations, a new approach, a hybrid modeling framework, is developed and demonstrated through modeling beam-to-column connections. Component-based modeling is a compromise spanning two extremes in the field of mathematical modeling: simplified global models and finite element models. In the component-based modeling of angle connections, the five critical components of excessive deformation are identified. Constitutive relationships of angles, column panel zones, and contact between angles and column flanges, are derived by using only material and geometric properties and theoretical mechanics considerations. Those of slip and bolt hole ovalization are simplified by empirically-suggested mathematical representation and expert opinions. A mathematical model is then assembled as a macro-element by combining rigid bars and springs that represent the constitutive relationship of components. Lastly, the moment-rotation curves of the mathematical models are compared with those of experimental tests. In the case of a top-and-seat angle connection with double web angles, a pinched hysteretic response is predicted quite well by complete mechanical models, which take advantage of only material and geometric properties. On the other hand, to exhibit the highly pinched behavior of a top-and-seat angle connection without web angles, a mathematical model requires components of slip and bolt hole ovalization, which are more amenable to informational modeling. An alternative method is informational modeling, which constitutes a fundamental shift from mathematical equations to data that contain the required information about underlying mechanics. The information is extracted from observed data and stored in neural networks. Two different training data sets, analytically-generated and experimental data, are tested to examine the performance of informational models. Both informational models show acceptable agreement with the moment-rotation curves of the experiments. Adding a degradation parameter improves the informational models when modeling highly pinched hysteretic behavior. However, informational models cannot represent the contribution of individual components and therefore do not provide an insight into the underlying mechanics of components. In this study, a new hybrid modeling framework is proposed. In the hybrid framework, a conventional mathematical model is complemented by the informational methods. The basic premise of the proposed hybrid methodology is that not all features of system response are amenable to mathematical modeling, hence considering informational alternatives. This may be because (i) the underlying theory is not available or not sufficiently developed, or (ii) the existing theory is too complex and therefore not suitable for modeling within building frame analysis. The role of informational methods is to model aspects that the mathematical model leaves out. Autoprogressive algorithm and self-learning simulation extract the missing aspects from a system response. In a hybrid framework, experimental data is an integral part of modeling, rather than being used strictly for validation processes. The potential of the hybrid methodology is illustrated through modeling complex hysteretic behavior of beam-to-column connections. Mechanics-based components of deformation such as angles, flange-plates, and column panel zone, are idealized to a mathematical model by using a complete mechanical approach. Although the mathematical model represents envelope curves in terms of initial stiffness and yielding strength, it is not capable of capturing the pinching effects. Pinching is caused mainly by separation between angles and column flanges as well as slip between angles/flange-plates and beam flanges. These components of deformation are suitable for informational modeling. Finally, the moment-rotation curves of the hybrid models are validated with those of the experimental tests. The comparison shows that the hybrid models are capable of representing the highly pinched hysteretic behavior of beam-to-column connections. In addition, the developed hybrid model is successfully used to predict the behavior of a newly-designed connection.

The role of new information and communication technologies (ICTs) in information and communication in science. A conceptual framework and empirical study

Problem This dissertation presents a literature-based framework for communication in science (with the elements partners, purposes, message, and channel), which it then applies in and amends through an empirical study of how geoscientists use two social computing technologies (SCTs), blogging and Twitter (both general use and tweeting from conferences). How are these technologies used and what value do scientists derive from them? Method The empirical part used a two-pronged qualitative study, using (1) purposive samples of ~400 blog posts and ~1000 tweets and (2) a purposive sample of 8 geoscientist interviews. Blog posts, tweets, and interviews were coded using the framework, adding new codes as needed. The results were aggregated into 8 geoscientist case studies, and general patterns were derived through cross-case analysis. Results A detailed picture of how geoscientists use blogs and twitter emerged, including a number of new functions not served by traditional channels. Some highlights: Geoscientists use SCTs for communication among themselves as well as with the public. Blogs serve persuasion and personal knowledge management; Twitter often amplifies the signal of traditional communications such as journal articles. Blogs include tutorials for peers, reviews of basic science concepts, and book reviews. Twitter includes links to readings, requests for assistance, and discussions of politics and religion. Twitter at conferences provides live coverage of sessions. Conclusions Both blogs and Twitter are routine parts of scientists' communication toolbox, blogs for in-depth, well-prepared essays, Twitter for faster and broader interactions. Both have important roles in supporting community building, mentoring, and learning and teaching. The Framework of Communication in Science was a useful tool in studying these two SCTs in this domain. The results should encourage science administrators to facilitate SCT use of scientists in their organization and information providers to search SCT documents as an important source of information.

Introducing mobile edge computing capabilities through distributed 5G Cloud Enabled Small Cells

Current trends in broadband mobile networks are addressed towards the placement of different capabilities at the edge of the mobile network in a centralised way. On one hand, the split of the eNB between baseband processing units and remote radio headers makes it possible to process some of the protocols in centralised premises, likely with virtualised resources. On the other hand, mobile edge computing makes use of processing and storage capabilities close to the air interface in order to deploy optimised services with minimum delay. The confluence of both trends is a hot topic in the definition of future 5G networks. The full centralisation of both technologies in cloud data centres imposes stringent requirements to the fronthaul connections in terms of throughput and latency. Therefore, all those cells with limited network access would not be able to offer these types of services. This paper proposes a solution for these cases, based on the placement of processing and storage capabilities close to the remote units, which is especially well suited for the deployment of clusters of small cells. The proposed cloud-enabled small cells include a highly efficient microserver with a limited set of virtualised resources offered to the cluster of small cells. As a result, a light data centre is created and commonly used for deploying centralised eNB and mobile edge computing functionalities. The paper covers the proposed architecture, with special focus on the integration of both aspects, and possible scenarios of application.

Experimental and analytical methodologies for predicting peak loads on building envelopes and roofing systems

The performance of building envelopes and roofing systems significantly depends on accurate knowledge of wind loads and the response of envelope components under realistic wind conditions. Wind tunnel testing is a well-established practice to determine wind loads on structures. For small structures much larger model scales are needed than for large structures, to maintain modeling accuracy and minimize Reynolds number effects. In these circumstances the ability to obtain a large enough turbulence integral scale is usually compromised by the limited dimensions of the wind tunnel meaning that it is not possible to simulate the low frequency end of the turbulence spectrum. Such flows are called flows with Partial Turbulence Simulation.^ In this dissertation, the test procedure and scaling requirements for tests in partial turbulence simulation are discussed. A theoretical method is proposed for including the effects of low-frequency turbulences in the post-test analysis. In this theory the turbulence spectrum is divided into two distinct statistical processes, one at high frequencies which can be simulated in the wind tunnel, and one at low frequencies which can be treated in a quasi-steady manner. The joint probability of load resulting from the two processes is derived from which full-scale equivalent peak pressure coefficients can be obtained. The efficacy of the method is proved by comparing predicted data derived from tests on large-scale models of the Silsoe Cube and Texas-Tech University buildings in Wall of Wind facility at Florida International University with the available full-scale data.^ For multi-layer building envelopes such as rain-screen walls, roof pavers, and vented energy efficient walls not only peak wind loads but also their spatial gradients are important. Wind permeable roof claddings like roof pavers are not well dealt with in many existing building codes and standards. Large-scale experiments were carried out to investigate the wind loading on concrete pavers including wind blow-off tests and pressure measurements. Simplified guidelines were developed for design of loose-laid roof pavers against wind uplift. The guidelines are formatted so that use can be made of the existing information in codes and standards such as ASCE 7-10 on pressure coefficients on components and cladding.^

Modeling the Aesthetic Axis of Information Organization Frameworks, Part 1: Theoretical Basis

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a theoretical framework, based on contemporary philosophical aesthetics, from which principled assessments of the aesthetic value of information organization frameworks may be conducted.Design/methodology/approach – This paper identifies appropriate discourses within the field of philosophical aesthetics, constructs from them a framework for assessing aesthetic properties of information organization frameworks. This framework is then applied in two case studies examining the Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH), and Sexual Nomenclature: A Thesaurus. Findings – In both information organization frameworks studied, the aesthetic analysis was useful in identifying judgments of the frameworks as aesthetic judgments, in promoting discovery of further areas of aesthetic judgments, and in prompting reflection on the nature of these aesthetic judgments. Research limitations/implications – This study provides proof-of-concept for the aesthetic evaluation of information organization frameworks. Areas of future research are identified as the role of cultural relativism in such aesthetic evaluation and identification of appropriate aesthetic properties of information organization frameworks.Practical implications – By identifying a subset of judgments of information organization frameworks as aesthetic judgments, aesthetic evaluation of such frameworks can be made explicit and principled. Aesthetic judgments can be separated from questions of economic feasibility, functional requirements, and user-orientation. Design and maintenance of information organization frameworks can be based on these principles.Originality/value – This study introduces a new evaluative axis for information organization frameworks based on philosophical aesthetics. By improving the evaluation of such novel frameworks, design and maintenance can be guided by these principles.Keywords Evaluation, Research methods, Analysis, Bibliographic systems, Indexes, Retrieval languages

Modeling the Aesthetic Axis of Information Organization Frameworks, Part 2: Case Studies

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a theoretical framework, based on contemporary philosophical aesthetics, from which principled assessments of the aesthetic value of information organization frameworks may be conducted.Design/methodology/approach – This paper identifies appropriate discourses within the field of philosophical aesthetics, constructs from them a framework for assessing aesthetic properties of information organization frameworks. This framework is then applied in two case studies examining the Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH), and Sexual Nomenclature: A Thesaurus. Findings – In both information organization frameworks studied, the aesthetic analysis was useful in identifying judgments of the frameworks as aesthetic judgments, in promoting discovery of further areas of aesthetic judgments, and in prompting reflection on the nature of these aesthetic judgments. Research limitations/implications – This study provides proof-of-concept for the aesthetic evaluation of information organization frameworks. Areas of future research are identified as the role of cultural relativism in such aesthetic evaluation and identification of appropriate aesthetic properties of information organization frameworks.Practical implications – By identifying a subset of judgments of information organization frameworks as aesthetic judgments, aesthetic evaluation of such frameworks can be made explicit and principled. Aesthetic judgments can be separated from questions of economic feasibility, functional requirements, and user-orientation. Design and maintenance of information organization frameworks can be based on these principles.Originality/value – This study introduces a new evaluative axis for information organization frameworks based on philosophical aesthetics. By improving the evaluation of such novel frameworks, design and maintenance can be guided by these principles.Keywords Evaluation, Analysis, Bibliographic systems, Indexes, Retrieval languages, Philosophy

Representing image captions as concept graphs using semantic information

Conceptual interpretation of languages has gathered peak interest in the world of artificial intelligence. The challenge in modeling various complications involved in a language is the main motivation behind our work. Our main focus in this work is to develop conceptual graphical representation for image captions. We have used discourse representation structure to gain semantic information which is further modeled into a graphical structure. The effectiveness of the model is evaluated by a caption based image retrieval system. The image retrieval is performed by computing subgraph based similarity measures. Best retrievals were given an average rating of . ± . out of 4 by a group of 25 human judges. The experiments were performed on a subset of the SBU Captioned Photo Dataset. This purpose of this work is to establish the cognitive sensibility of the approach to caption representations

Representing image captions as concept graphs using semantic information

Conceptual interpretation of languages has gathered peak interest in the world of artificial intelligence. The challenge in modeling various complications involved in a language is the main motivation behind our work. Our main focus in this work is to develop conceptual graphical representation for image captions. We have used discourse representation structure to gain semantic information which is further modeled into a graphical structure. The effectiveness of the model is evaluated by a caption based image retrieval system. The image retrieval is performed by computing subgraph based similarity measures. Best retrievals were given an average rating of . ± . out of 4 by a group of 25 human judges. The experiments were performed on a subset of the SBU Captioned Photo Dataset. This purpose of this work is to establish the cognitive sensibility of the approach to caption representations.

Dalla generazione di modelli 3D densi mediante TLS e fotogrammetria alla modellazione BIM

La tesi tratta la ricerca di procedure che permettano di rilevare oggetti utilizzando il maggior numero di informazioni geometriche ottenibili da una nuvola di punti densa generata da un rilievo fotogrammetrico o da TLS realizzando un modello 3D importabile in ambiente FEM. Il primo test si è eseguito su una piccola struttura, 1.2x0.5x0.2m, in modo da definire delle procedure di analisi ripetibili; la prima consente di passare dalla nuvola di punti “Cloud” all’oggetto solido “Solid” al modello agli elementi finiti “Fem” e per questo motivo è stata chiamata “metodo CSF”, mentre la seconda, che prevede di realizzare il modello della struttura con un software BIM è stata chiamata semplicemente “metodo BIM”. Una volta dimostrata la fattibilità della procedura la si è validata adottando come oggetto di studio un monumento storico di grandi dimensioni, l’Arco di Augusto di Rimini, confrontando i risultati ottenuti con quelli di altre tesi sulla medesima struttura, in particolare si è fatto riferimento a modelli FEM 2D e a modelli ottenuti da una nuvola di punti con i metodi CAD e con un software scientifico sviluppato al DICAM Cloud2FEM. Sull’arco sono state eseguite due tipi di analisi, una lineare sotto peso proprio e una modale ottenendo risultati compatibili tra i vari metodi sia dal punto di vista degli spostamenti, 0.1-0.2mm, che delle frequenze naturali ma si osserva che le frequenze naturali del modello BIM sono più simili a quelle dei modelli generati da cloud rispetto al modello CAD. Il quarto modo di vibrare invece presenta differenze maggiori. Il confronto con le frequenze naturali del modello FEM ha restituito differenze percentuali maggiori dovute alla natura 2D del modello e all’assenza della muratura limitrofa. Si sono confrontate le tensioni normali dei modelli CSF e BIM con quelle ottenute dal modello FEM ottenendo differenze inferiori a 1.28 kg/cm2 per le tensioni normali verticali e sull’ordine 10-2 kg/cm2 per quelle orizzontali.

Advanced numerical modeling of masonry vaulted structures based on BIM parametric geometry generation

Vaults are an architectural element which during construction history have been built with a great variety of different materials, shapes, and sizes. The shape of these structural elements was often dependent by the necessity to cover complex spaces, by the needed loading capacity, or by architectural aesthetics. Within this complex scenario masonry patterns generates also different effects on loading capacity, load percolation and stiffness of the structure. These effects were been extensively investigated, both with empirical observations and with modern numerical methods. While most of them focus on analyzing the load bearing capacity or the texture effect on vaulted structures, the aim of this analysis is to investigate on the effects of the variation of a single structural characteristic on the load percolation in the vault. Moreover, an additional purpose of the work is related to the coding of a parametrical model aiming at generating different masonry vaulted structures. Nevertheless, proposed script can generate different typology of vaulted structure basing on some structural characteristics, such as the span and the length to cover and the dimensions of the blocks.

Flexible Computing Systems For AI Acceleration At The Extreme Edge Of The IoT

Embedding intelligence in extreme edge devices allows distilling raw data acquired from sensors into actionable information, directly on IoT end-nodes. This computing paradigm, in which end-nodes no longer depend entirely on the Cloud, offers undeniable benefits, driving a large research area (TinyML) to deploy leading Machine Learning (ML) algorithms on micro-controller class of devices. To fit the limited memory storage capability of these tiny platforms, full-precision Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are compressed by representing their data down to byte and sub-byte formats, in the integer domain. However, the current generation of micro-controller systems can barely cope with the computing requirements of QNNs. This thesis tackles the challenge from many perspectives, presenting solutions both at software and hardware levels, exploiting parallelism, heterogeneity and software programmability to guarantee high flexibility and high energy-performance proportionality. The first contribution, PULP-NN, is an optimized software computing library for QNN inference on parallel ultra-low-power (PULP) clusters of RISC-V processors, showing one order of magnitude improvements in performance and energy efficiency, compared to current State-of-the-Art (SoA) STM32 micro-controller systems (MCUs) based on ARM Cortex-M cores. The second contribution is XpulpNN, a set of RISC-V domain specific instruction set architecture (ISA) extensions to deal with sub-byte integer arithmetic computation. The solution, including the ISA extensions and the micro-architecture to support them, achieves energy efficiency comparable with dedicated DNN accelerators and surpasses the efficiency of SoA ARM Cortex-M based MCUs, such as the low-end STM32M4 and the high-end STM32H7 devices, by up to three orders of magnitude. To overcome the Von Neumann bottleneck while guaranteeing the highest flexibility, the final contribution integrates an Analog In-Memory Computing accelerator into the PULP cluster, creating a fully programmable heterogeneous fabric that demonstrates end-to-end inference capabilities of SoA MobileNetV2 models, showing two orders of magnitude performance improvements over current SoA analog/digital solutions.