Social and physical environments in senior communities: The Finnish experience

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to discuss residents’ views of social and physical environments in a co-housing and in a senior housing setting in Finland. Also, the study aims to point out important connections between well-being and built environment. Design/methodology/approach – The data include interviews and survey responses gathered in the cases. The results and analysis are presented at different case study levels, with the discussion and conclusions following this. Findings – The findings show that the physical environment and common areas have an important role to activate residents. When well-designed common areas exist, a higher level of engagement can be achieved by getting residents involved in the planning and running of activities. Research limitations/implications – This paper discusses residents’ experiences in two Finnish housing settings and it focuses on the housing market in Finland. Practical implications – The findings encourage investors and housing operators to design and invest common areas which could activate residents and create social contacts. Also, investors have to pay attention to the way these developments are managed. Originality/value – This study is the first to investigate the Finnish co-housing setting and compare social and physical environments in a co-housing and a senior house.

Random Breath Testing Operation and Effectiveness in 1987

• In December 1986 funds were approved to double the intensity of random breath testing (RBT) and provide publicity support for police efforts. These changes were considered necessary to make RBT effective. • RBT methods were changed in the metropolitan area to enable block testing (pulling over a block of traffic rather than one or two cars), deployment of police to cut off escape routes, and testing by traffic patrols in all police subdivisions. Additional operators were trained for country RBT. • A publicity campaign was developed, aimed mainly at male drivers aged 18-50. The campaign consisted of the “cardsharp” television commercials, radio commercials, newspaper articles, posters and pamphlets. • Increased testing and the publicity campaigns were launched on 10 April 1987. • Police tests increased by 92.5% in May – December 1987, compared with the same period in the previous four years. • The detection rate for drinking drivers picked up by police who were cutting off escape routes was comparatively high, indicating that drivers were attempting to avoid RBT, and that this police method was effective at detecting these drivers. • A telephone survey indicated that drivers were aware of the messages of the publicity campaign. • The telephone survey also indicated that the target group had been exposed to high levels of RBT, as planned, and that fear of apprehension was the major factor deterring them from drink driving. • A roadside survey of driver blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) by the University of Adelaide’s Road Accident Research Unit (RARU) showed that, between 10p.m. and 3a.m., the proportion of drivers in Adelaide with a BAC greater than or equal to 0/08 decreased by 42%. • Drivers under 21 were identified as a possible problem area. • Fatalities in the twelve month period commencing May 1987 decreased by 18% in comparison with the previous twelve month period, and by 13% in comparison with the average of the previous two twelve month periods (commencing May 1985 and May 1986). There are indications that this trend is continuing. • It is concluded that the increase in RBT, plus publicity, was successful in achieving its aims of reductions in drink driving and accidents.

Modeling dynamic demand response using Monte Carlo simulation and interval mathematics for boundary estimation

With the rapid development of various technologies and applications in smart grid implementation, demand response has attracted growing research interests because of its potentials in enhancing power grid reliability with reduced system operation costs. This paper presents a new demand response model with elastic economic dispatch in a locational marginal pricing market. It models system economic dispatch as a feedback control process, and introduces a flexible and adjustable load cost as a controlled signal to adjust demand response. Compared with the conventional “one time use” static load dispatch model, this dynamic feedback demand response model may adjust the load to a desired level in a finite number of time steps and a proof of convergence is provided. In addition, Monte Carlo simulation and boundary calculation using interval mathematics are applied for describing uncertainty of end-user's response to an independent system operator's expected dispatch. A numerical analysis based on the modified Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland power pool five-bus system is introduced for simulation and the results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. System operators may use the proposed model to obtain insights in demand response processes for their decision-making regarding system load levels and operation conditions.

Effect of sorghum ergot (Claviceps africana) on the performance of steers (Bos taurus) in a feedlot.

The effect of ergot (Claviceps africana) in naturally infected sorghum was assessed in feedlot rations. Thirty-two Hereford steers (Bos taurus) in individual pens with access to shade were adapted to feedlot conditions and then offered one of four rations containing 0, 4.4, 8.8 or 17.6 mg/kg of ergot alkaloids (84% dihydroergosine, 10% dihydroelymoclavine and 6% festuclavine), equivalent to ~0, 10, 20 or 40 g/kg ergot (sclerotia/sphacelia) in the rations. These rations were withdrawn at noon on the second day because of severe hyperthermia and almost complete feed refusal in ergot-fed steers. After recovery on ergot-free rations for 5 days, treatment groups were incrementally introduced, over a further 3–12 days, to rations containing 0, 1.1, 2.2 or 4.4 mg/kg of alkaloids (~0, 2.5, 5 or 10 g/kg ergot, respectively). Relative exposure to ergot was maintained, so that the zero- (control), low-, medium- and high-ergot groups remained so. Steers were individually fed ad libitum, and water was freely available. Steers in all ergot-fed groups had significantly elevated rectal temperatures at 0800–1000 hours, even when the temperature–humidity index was only moderate (~70), and displayed other signs of hyperthermia (increased respiration rate, mouth breathing, excessive salivation and urination), as the temperature–humidity index increased to 73–79 during the day. Plasma prolactin was significantly reduced in ergot-fed groups. Voluntary feed intakes (liveweight basis) of the ergot-fed groups were significantly reduced, averaging 94, 86 and 86%, respectively, of the feed intakes of the control group. Hair coats were rough. While the control steers grew from a mean initial liveweight of 275 kg to a suitable slaughter weight of 455 kg in 17 weeks (growth rate 1.45 kg/day), ergot-fed groups gained only 0.77–1.10 kg/day and took at least 5 weeks longer to reach the slaughter weight, despite removal of ergot at the same time as control steers were sent to slaughter. Sorghum ergot, even at low concentrations (1.1 mg alkaloids/kg feed) is severely detrimental to the performance of steers in the feedlot.

Cocowood processing manual: from coconut wood to quality flooring.

This manual describes best practice for producing high-value flooring products from coconut ‘wood’—or cocowood. It meets international standards for flooring products and accounts for the recognised, specific, local conditions of the Pacific Islands. The information is intended for operators skilled in timber processing, who need to work with the unusual properties of cocowood, and specifies where cocowood processes differ from standard practice for timber. For other processes, refer to the relevant standards set by the importing country. These technical guidelines are based on the research outcomes of the ACIAR project, 'Improving value and marketability of coconut wood'. The manual is divided into three chapters. Each chapter adds to different aspects of primary and secondary processing. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the best practice steps for harvesting and processing cocowood. There is also a glossary of terms specifically associated with processing cocowood and a section on managing processing risks. Chapter 2 covers cocowood’s unique properties and how they relate to critical processing techniques. This is followed by sections that set out the processing methods in more detail, explaining why these practices are essential when working with cocowood. Chapter 3 provides more information, including contacts, current timber standards and some useful publications.

Commercial application of polychaete sand filters for wastewater remediation and broodstock feeds

Summary Prototype sand-worm filtration beds were constructed at two prawn farms and one fish farm to assess and demonstrate their polychaete (marine worm) production and wastewater remediation capacities at semi-commercial scale. Wastewater treatment properties were monitored and worms produced were assessed and either sold for bait or used by the farms’ hatcheries as broodstock (prawn or fish breeder) feed. More than 34 megalitres of prawn- and fish-pond water was beneficially treated in the 116-319-d trial. The design of the polychaete-assisted sand filters (PASFs) constructed at each farm affected their water handling rates, which on average ranged from 315 to 1000 L m-2 d-1 at the three farms. A low profile design incorporating shallow bunded ponds made from polyethylene liner and timber stakes provided the easiest method of construction. This simple design applied at broad scale facilitated the highest quantities of treated water and the greatest worm production. Designs with higher sides increased the head pressure above the sand bed surface, thus increasing the amount of water that could be treated each day. Most water qualities were affected in a similar way to that demonstrated in the previous tank trials: dissolved oxygen, pH, total suspended solids and chlorophyll a levels were all consistently significantly lowered as pond water percolated through the sand bed, and dissolved forms of nitrogen and phosphorus were marginally increased on several occasions. However, unlike the previous smaller-scale tank trials, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) levels were both significantly lowered by these larger-scale PASFs. The reasons for this are still unclear and require further research. Maximum TN and TP removals detected in the trial were 48.8% and 67.5%, respectively, and average removals (in unfed beds) at the three farms ranged from 20.0 to 27.7% for TN and from 22.8 to 40.8% for TP. Collectively, these results demonstrate the best suspended solids, chlorophyll and macronutrient removal capacities so far reported for any mariculture wastewater treatment methodology to date. Supplemental feeding of PASFs with fish meal was also investigated at one farm as a potential means of increasing their polychaete biomass production. Whilst fed beds produced higher biomass (152 ± 35 g m-2) compared with unfed beds (89 ± 17 g m-2) after 3.7 months of operation, the low number of replicates (2) prevented statistically significant differences from being demonstrated for either growth or survival. At harvest several months later, worm biomass production was estimated to be similar to, or in slight excess of, previously reported production levels (300-400 g m-2). Several qualities of filtered water appear to have been affected by supplemental feeding: it appeared to marginally lower dissolved oxygen and pH levels, and increased the TN and TP levels though not so much to eliminate significant beneficial water treatment effects. Periodic sampling during an artificial-tide demonstrated the tendency for treated-water quality changes during the first hour of filtration. Total nitrogen and ammonia peaked early in the tidal flow and then fell to more stable levels for the remainder of the filtration period. Other dissolved nutrients also showed signs of this sand-bed-flushing pattern, and dissolved oxygen tended to climb during the first hour and become more stable thereafter. These patterns suggest that the routine sampling of treated water undertaken at mid-inflow during the majority of the wider study would likely have overestimated the levels of TN and dissolved nutrients discharged from the beds, and hence underestimated the PASFs treatment efficacies in this regard. Analyses of polychaete biomass collected from each bed in the study revealed that the worms were free from contamination with the main prawn viruses that would create concerns for their feeding to commercial prawn broodstock in Australia. Their documented proximal and nutritional contents also provide a guide for hatchery operators when using live or frozen stock. Their dry matter content ranged from 18.3 to 22.3%, ash ranged from 10.2 to 14.0%, gross energy from 20.2 to 21.5 MJ kg-1, and fat from 5.0 to 9.2%. Their cholesterol levels ranged from 0.86 to 1.03% of dry matter, whilst total phospholipids range from 0.41 to 0.72%. Thirty-one different fatty acids were present at detectable (≥0.005% of dry matter) levels in the sampled worm biomass. Palmitic acid was by far the most prevalent fatty acid detected (1.21 ± 0.18%), followed by eicosapentaenoic (EPA) (0.48 ± 0.03%), stearic (0.46 ± 0.04%), vaccenic (0.38 ± 0.05%), adrenic (0.35 ± 0.02%), docosadienoic (0.28 ± 0.02%), arachidonic (AA) (0.22 ± 0.01%), palmitoleic (0.20 ± 0.04%) and 23 other fatty acids with average contents of less than 0.2% of dry matter. Supplemental feeding with fish meal at one farm appeared to increase the docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) content of the worms considerably, and modify the average AA : EPA : DHA from 1.0 : 2.7 : 0.3 to 1.0 : 2.0 : 1.1. Consistent with previous results, the three most heavily represented amino acids in the dry matter of sampled worms were glutamic acid (8.5 ± 0.2%), aspartic acid (5.5 ± 0.1%) and glycine (4.9 ± 0.5%). These biomass content results suggest that worms produced in PASF systems are well suited to feeding to prawn and fish broodstock, and provide further strong evidence of the potential to modify their contents for specific nutritional uses. The falling wild-fishery production of marine bloodworms in Queensland is typical of diminishing polychaete resources world-wide and demonstrates the need to develop sustainable production methods here and overseas. PASF systems offer the dual benefits of wastewater treatment for environmental management and increased productivity through a valuable secondary crop grown exclusively on waste nutrients.

Tuning of PID controllers for water networks—different approaches

Better operational control of water networks can help reduce leakage, maintain pressure, and control flow. Proportional integral derivative (PID) controllers, with proper fine-tuning, can help water utility operators achieve targets faster without creating undue transients. The authors compared three tuning methods, in different test situations, involving flow and level control to different reservoirs. Although target values were reached with all three tuning methods, the methods’ performances varied significantly. The lowest performer among the three was the method most widely used in the industry—standard tuning by the Ziegler-Nichols method. Achieving better results was offline tuning by genetic algorithms. Achieving the best control, though, was a fuzzy logic–based online tuning approach—the FZPID controller. The FZPID controller had fewer overshoots and took significantly less time to tune the gains for each problem. This new tuning approach for PID controllers can be applied to a variety of problems and can increase the performance of water networks of any size and structure

Eliciting and encoding expert knowledge on variable selection into classical or Bayesian species distribution models

The quality of species distribution models (SDMs) relies to a large degree on the quality of the input data, from bioclimatic indices to environmental and habitat descriptors (Austin, 2002). Recent reviews of SDM techniques, have sought to optimize predictive performance e.g. Elith et al., 2006. In general SDMs employ one of three approaches to variable selection. The simplest approach relies on the expert to select the variables, as in environmental niche models Nix, 1986 or a generalized linear model without variable selection (Miller and Franklin, 2002). A second approach explicitly incorporates variable selection into model fitting, which allows examination of particular combinations of variables. Examples include generalized linear or additive models with variable selection (Hastie et al. 2002); or classification trees with complexity or model based pruning (Breiman et al., 1984, Zeileis, 2008). A third approach uses model averaging, to summarize the overall contribution of a variable, without considering particular combinations. Examples include neural networks, boosted or bagged regression trees and Maximum Entropy as compared in Elith et al. 2006. Typically, users of SDMs will either consider a small number of variable sets, via the first approach, or else supply all of the candidate variables (often numbering more than a hundred) to the second or third approaches. Bayesian SDMs exist, with several methods for eliciting and encoding priors on model parameters (see review in Low Choy et al. 2010). However few methods have been published for informative variable selection; one example is Bayesian trees (O’Leary 2008). Here we report an elicitation protocol that helps makes explicit a priori expert judgements on the quality of candidate variables. This protocol can be flexibly applied to any of the three approaches to variable selection, described above, Bayesian or otherwise. We demonstrate how this information can be obtained then used to guide variable selection in classical or machine learning SDMs, or to define priors within Bayesian SDMs.

Smoking from Adolescence to Adulthood : A 15-year Follow-up of the North Karelia Youth Project

The aim of the study was to examine the effects of a smoking prevention program and smoking from early adolescence to early adulthood by using longitudinal data. In addition, predictors of smoking, smoking cessation, and associations of smoking with socio-economic factors and other health behaviours were assessed. The data was gathered in connection with the North Karelia Youth Project follow-up study during 15 years. A two-year cardiovascular disease risk factor prevention program was carried out among students from grades seven to nine in four schools in North Karelia. Two schools were selected from Kuopio province for the control schools. The North Karelia Project, a community-based cardiovascular disease prevention program, was implemented in the same area. At the baseline in 1978 the subjects were 13-year-olds (n=903) and in the following surveys 15-, 16-, 17-, 21- and 28-year-olds. The parents of the subjects were studied twice, in 1978 and 1980. A two-year intervention based on social influence approach prevented the onset of smoking for several years. The continuity of smoking from adolescence to adulthood was strong: most adolescent smokers were still smoking in adulthood. Moreover, approximately half of the 28-year-old smokers had started smoking after the age of 15. Previous smoking status and smoking by friends were the most important predictors of smoking. One third of all adolescent smokers had stopped smoking before the age of 28, averaging at 2.3 % annual decline. The socioeconomic status of the subject and, especially, education were strongly related to smoking, the lower socioeconomic groups smoking the most. Parental socioeconomic status and intergenerational social mobility were not significantly related to the smoking of the subject in adolescence or adulthood. Smoking was associated positively with the use of alcohol and negatively with physical activity from adolescence to adulthood. The results support the feasibility of a school-based social influence program with a community-based program in smoking prevention among adolescents. Strong continuity of smoking from adolescence to adulthood supports the importance of preventing the onset of smoking in adolescence. It would be useful to continue prevention programs also after the comprehensive school, since so many young start smoking after that. It would likewise be important to develop cessation programs tailor-made for adolescents and young adults. Additionally, the results support the importance of using methods based on social influence in smoking prevention and cessation programs, targeting especially such risk groups as those with low socioeconomic status as well as those with other unhealthy behaviours.

DFL: A Data Flow Language

Many novel computer architectures like array and multiprocessors which achieve high performance through the use of concurrency exploit variations of the von Neumann model of computation. The effective utilization of the machines makes special demands on programmers and their programming languages, such as the structuring of data into vectors or the partitioning of programs into concurrent processes. In comparison, the data flow model of computation demands only that the principle of structured programming be followed. A data flow program, often represented as a data flow graph, is a program that expresses a computation by indicating the data dependencies among operators. A data flow computer is a machine designed to take advantage of concurrency in data flow graphs by executing data independent operations in parallel. In this paper, we discuss the design of a high level language (DFL: Data Flow Language) suitable for data flow computers. Some sample procedures in DFL are presented. The implementation aspects have not been discussed in detail since there are no new problems encountered. The language DFL embodies the concepts of functional programming, but in appearance closely resembles Pascal. The language is a better vehicle than the data flow graph for expressing a parallel algorithm. The compiler has been implemented on a DEC 1090 system in Pascal.

The DOOR manual for plant nurseries

In the nursery industry, generic research conducted by government institutions is often not specific enough to be highly valued and adopted by the individual operator. Operators need practical solutions to their particular problems. Such problems almost invariably involve sets of conditions common to few other enterprises. This uniqueness reflects the almost infinite variation of options available in terms of species grown, media used, fertiliser, amendments and chemicals applied and the way water is supplied. The DOOR (Do Our Own Research) method advocates a relatively unexplored way of generating new, statistically sound research information in the nursery industry. The manual aims to enhance nursery operators' understanding and skills development in the following areas: critially evaluating opportunities and problems in the nursery environment, gathering relevant information, deriving and prioritising potential solutions to problems and opportunities, becoming familiar with the scientific method employed in testing potential solutions, carrying out statistically sound aand rigorous research, and developing recommendations that flow from the research information generated. The DOOR approach has application in a number of other industries and may provide important support at a time of declining research, development and extension investment by the public sector.

Measuring route passenger load diversity for capacity and quality of service assessment

This paper develops theory that quantifies transit route passenger-relative load factor and distinguishes it from occupancy load factor. The ratio between these measures is defined as the load diversity coefficient, which as a single measure characterizes the diversity of passenger load factor between route segments according to the origin-destination profile. The relationship between load diversity coefficient and route coefficient of variation in occupancy load factor is quantified. Two tables are provided that enhance passenger capacity and quality of service (QoS) assessment regarding onboard passenger load. The first expresses the transit operator’s perspective of load diversity and the passengers’ perspective of load factor relative to the operator’s, across six service levels corresponding to ranges of coefficient of variation in occupancy load factor. The second interprets the relationships between passenger average travel time and each of passenger-relative load factor and occupancy load factor. The application of this methodology is illustrated using a case study of a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia. The methodology can assist in benchmarking and decision making regarding route and schedule design. Future research will apply value of time to QoS measurement, reflecting perceived passenger comfort through crowding and average time spent aboard. This would also assist in transit service quality econometric modeling.

Measuring route passenger load diversity for capacity and quality of service assessment

This poster introduces Passenger Relative Load Factor for a route or individual bus service as a capacity and quality of service measure, distinguishing it from Occupancy Load Factor. It introduces Load Diversity Coefficient as the ratio of Passenger Relative Load Factor to Occupancy Load Factor, and relates Load Diversity Coefficient to Coefficient of Variation in Occupancy Load Factor. It qualifies the operator’s and passengers’ perspectives of load factor based on Coefficient of Variation in Occupancy Load Factor along a route. A case study using weekday Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) data on a premium bus line in Brisbane, Australia illustrates the methodology. The compendium paper also qualifies the operator’s and passengers’ perspectives of these load factors along with Passengers’ Average Travel Time for capacity and quality of service assessment.

Swan’s Lagoon Celebrating 50 years

Swan’s Lagoon, which is 125 km south-south-west of Townsville, was purchased by the Queensland Government as a beef cattle research station in 1961. It is situated within the seasonally-dry tropical spear grass region of North Queensland. The station was expanded from 80 km2 to 340 km2 by purchase of the adjoining Expedition block in 1978. The first advisory committee formed and initiated research in 1961. The median annual rainfall of 708 mm (28 inches) is highly variable, with over 80% usually falling in December–April. Annual evaporation is 2.03 metres. The 60% of useable area is mostly flat with low fertility duplex soils, of which more than 50% is phosphorus deficient. Natural spear grass-based pastures predominate over the station. Swan’s Lagoon research has contributed to understanding the biology of many aspects of beef production for northern Australia. Research outcomes have provided options to deal with the region’s primary challenges of weaning rates averaging less than 60%, annual growth rates averaging as little as 100 kg, high mortality rates and high management costs. All these relate to the region’s variable and highly seasonal rainfall—challenges that add to insect-borne viruses, ticks, buffalo fly and internal parasites. As well as the vast amount of practical beef production science produced at Swan’s Lagoon, generations of staff have been trained there to support beef producers throughout Queensland and northern Australia to increase their business efficiency. The Queensland Government has provided most of the funds for staffing and operations. Strong beef industry support is reflected in project funding from meat industry levies, managed by Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) and its predecessors. MLA has consistently provided the majority of operational research funding since the first grant for ‘Studies of management practices, adaption of different breeds and strains to tropical environments, and studies on tick survival and resistance’ in 1962–63. A large number of other agencies and commercial companies have also supported research.

Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.