Assessing farmers' vulnerability to climate change : a case study in Karnataka, India

In the context of observed climate change impacts and their effect on agriculture and crop production, this study intends to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods through a study case in Karnataka, India. The social approach of climate change vulnerability in this study case includes defining and exploring factors that determine farmers’ vulnerability in four villages. Key informant interviews, farmer workshops and structured household interviews were used for data collection. To analyse the data, we adapted and applied three vulnerability indices: Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI-IPCC and the Livelihood Effect Index (LEI), and used descriptive statistical methods. The data was analysed at two scales: whole sample-level and household level. The results from applying the indices for the whole-sample level show that this community's vulnerability to climate change is moderate, whereas the household-level results show that most of the households' vulnerability is high-very high, while 15 key drivers of vulnerability were identified. Results and limitations of the study are discussed under the rural livelihoods framework, in which the indices are based, allowing a better understanding of the social behaviouraltrends, as well as an holistic and integrated view of the climate change, agriculture, and livelihoods processes shaping vulnerability. We conclude that these indices, although a straightforward method to assess vulnerability, have limitations that could account for inaccuracies and inability to be standardised for benchmarking, therefore we stress the need for further research.

Ultrasound evaluation of synovitis in RA: Correlation with clinical disease activity and sensitivity to change in an observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the correlation between clinical measures of disease activity and a ultrasound (US) scoring system for synovitis applied by many different ultrasonographers in a daily routine care setting within the Swiss registry for RA (SCQM) and further to determine the sensitivity to change of this US Score. METHODS: One hundred and eight Swiss rheumatologists were trained in performing the Swiss Sonography in Arthritis and Rheumatism (SONAR) score. US B-mode and Power Doppler (PwD) scores were correlated with DAS28 and compared between the clinical categories in a cross-sectional cohort of patients. In patients with a second US (longitudinal cohort), we investigated if change in US score correlated with change in DAS and evaluated the responsiveness of both methods. RESULTS: In the cross-sectional cohort with 536 patients, correlation between the B-mode score and DAS28 was significant but modest (Pearson coefficient r=0.41, P<0.0001). The same was true for the PwD score (r=0.41, P<0.0001). In the longitudinal cohort with 183 patients we also found a significant correlation between change in B-mode and in PwD score with change in DAS28 (r=0.54, P<0.0001 and r=0.46, P<0.0001, respectively). Both methods of evaluation (DAS and US) showed similar responsiveness according to standardized response mean (SRM). CONCLUSIONS: The SONAR Score is practicable and was applied by many rheumatologists in daily routine care after initial training. It demonstrates significant correlations with the degree of as well as change in disease activity as measured by DAS. On the level of the individual, the US score shows many discrepancies and overlapping results exist.

Cities, skills, and regional change

One approach to urban areas emphasizes the existence of certain immutable relationships, such as Zipf's or Gibrat's Law. An alternative view is that urban changereflects individual responses to changing tastes or technologies. This paper examinesalmost 200 years of regional change in the U.S. and finds that few, if any, growth relationships remain constant, including Gibrat's Law. Education does a reasonable jobof explaining urban resilience in recent decades, but does not seem to predict countygrowth a century ago. After reviewing this evidence, we present and estimate a simple model of regional change, where education increases the level of entrepreneurship.Human capital spillovers occur at the city level because skilled workers produce moreproduct varieties and thereby increase labor demand. We find that skills are associatedwith growth in productivity or entrepreneurship, not with growth in quality of life, atleast outside of the West. We also find that skills seem to have depressed housing supplygrowth in the West, but not in other regions, which supports the view that educatedresidents in that region have fought for tougher land-use controls. We also present evidence that skills have had a disproportionately large impact on unemployment duringthe current recession.

Sentence des juge et consuls de Paris, pour la forme des paiements des lettres et billets de change

[Acte. 1730-01-09. Paris]

Sentence des juges et consuls de Paris, qui condamne tous les Jésuites de France solidairement, à payer la somme de 30000 livres dûes en vertu d'une lettre de change tirée par le P. La Valette, supérieur des Missions aux Iles du Vent...

[Acte. 1760-01-30. Paris]

Sentence des juge et consuls de Paris ; qui condamne à payer deux lettres de change adhirées, quoiqu'elles ne soient point revêtues des signatures du tireur et de l'endosseur

[Acte. 1776-03-13. Paris]

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.

Length Change of P. C. Concrete Due to Moisture Content, MLR-85-09, 1987

Portland cement concrete is an outstanding structural material but stresses and cracks often occur in large structures due to drying shrinkage. The objective of this research was to determine the change in length due to loss of moisture from placement through complete drying of portland cement concrete. The drying shrinkage was determined for four different combinations of Iowa DOT structural concrete mix proportions and materials. The two mix proportions used were an Iowa DOT D57 (bridge deck mix proportions) and a water reduced modified C4 mix. Three 4"x 4"x 18" beams were made for each mix. After moist curing for three days, all beams were maintained in laboratory dry air and the length and weight were measured at 73°F ± 3°F. The temperature was cycled on alternate days from 73°F to 90°F through four months. From four months through six months, the temperature was cycled one day at 73°F and six days at 130°F. It took approximately six months for the concrete to reach a dry condition with these temperatures. The total drying shrinkage for the four mixes varied from .0106 in. to .0133 in. with an average of .0120 in. The rate of shrinkage was approximately .014% shrinkage per 1% moisture loss for all four mixes. The rate and total shrinkage for all four mixes was very similar and did not seem to depend on the type of coarse aggregate or the use of a retarder.

Two new families with hereditary minimal change disease.

BACKGROUND: Steroid-sensitive idiopathic nephrotic syndrome (SSINS) is most often encountered in sporadic cases of minimal change disease (MCD). Only rare cases of familial forms of MCD have been reported and most of them only in one generation. The scarcity of data has precluded unraveling the underlying genetic defect and candidate gene approaches have been unsuccessful. Here we report two families with related SSINS cases and review the related literature. CASE PRESENTATION: Two siblings and a cousin (first family), and a father and his son (second family), are reported with SSINS due to MCD. Patients have been followed up for more than 12 years and a renal biopsy was performed in three cases, demonstrating typical features of MCD. The course of the disease was remarkable because of several relapses treated with steroids. In three cases, mycophenolate mofetil or cyclosporine was added. CONCLUSION: Familial SSINS due to MCD is extremely rare and no genetic defect has been identified so far. Reporting cases of hereditary MCD will allow further genetic studies which will ultimately help unravel the molecular basis of this disease.

Change detection in boreal forests using bi-temporal aerial photographs

[Abstract]

Effect of once-yearly zoledronic acid five milligrams on fracture risk and change in femoral neck bone mineral density.

CONTEXT: In the Health Outcomes and Reduced Incidence with Zoledronic Acid Once Yearly - Pivotal Fracture Trial (HORIZON-PFT), zoledronic acid (ZOL) 5 mg significantly reduced fracture risk. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to identify factors associated with greater efficacy during ZOL 5 mg treatment. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: We conducted a subgroup analysis (preplanned and post hoc) of a multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 36-month trial in 7765 women with postmenopausal osteoporosis. Intervention: A single infusion of ZOL 5 mg or placebo was administered at baseline, 12, and 24 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary endpoints were new vertebral fracture and hip fracture. Secondary endpoints were nonvertebral fracture and change in femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Baseline risk factor subgroups were age, BMD T-score and vertebral fracture status, total hip BMD, race, weight, geographical region, smoking, height loss, history of falls, physical activity, prior bisphosphonates, creatinine clearance, body mass index, and concomitant osteoporosis medications. RESULTS: Greater ZOL induced effects on vertebral fracture risk were seen with younger age (treatment-by-subgroup interaction, P = 0.05), normal creatinine clearance (P = 0.04), and body mass index >or= 25 kg/m(2) (P = 0.02). There were no significant treatment-factor interactions for hip or nonvertebral fracture or for change in BMD. CONCLUSIONS: ZOL appeared more effective in preventing vertebral fracture in younger women, overweight/obese women, and women with normal renal function. ZOL had similar effects irrespective of fracture risk factors or femoral neck BMD.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

Erosion and channel change as factors of landslides and valley formation in Champlain sea clays: The Chacoura river, Quebec, Canada

The Champlain Sea clays of Eastern Canada are incised by numerous rivers. Their slopes have been modified by landslides: on the Chacoura River near Trois-Rivières (Quebec), several large landslide scars, more or less recent, are visible. The role of erosion (channel incision, lateral channel migration and erosion of slopes due to agricultural drainage) as a trigger of these landslides is important. The aim of this study is to understand how erosion and landslides are related to valley development. From a detailed analysis of aerial photographs and DEMs, a map of the phenomena has been drawn by identifying various elements such as landslides, limits of the slope, position of the channel, and the area covered by forest. It is shown that channel change and erosion are strongly linked to landslides by the fact that they change the bank morphology in an unstable way. A slide in itself is a natural way for the slope to achieve stability. But when it occurs in a stream, it creates a disturbance to the stream flow enhancing local erosion which may change the river path and generate more erosion downstream or upstream resulting in more slides. Cross-valley sections and a longitudinal profile show that landslides are a major factor of valley formation. It appears that the upper part of the Chacoura River valley is still unaffected by landslides and has V-shaped sections. The lower part has been subject to intense erosion and many landslide scars can be seen. This shows that the valley morphology is transient, and that future activity is more likely to occur in the upper part of the river. Therefore the identification of areas prone to erosion will help determine the possible location of future large landslides just like the ones that occurred in the lower part.

Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.