Simulation of late-twenty-first-century changes in wintertime atmospheric circulation over Europe due to anthropogenic causes

Evidence is presented, based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios performed with a global general circulation model of the atmosphere with high horizontal resolution over Europe, to suggest that the end-of-century anthropogenic climate change over the North Atlantic--European region strongly projects onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation during wintertime. It is reflected in a doubling of the residence frequency of the climate system in the associated circulation regime, in agreement with the nonlinear climate perspective. The strong increase in the amplitude of the response, compared to coarse-resolution coupled model studies, suggests that improved model representation of regional climate is needed to achieve more reliable projections of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.

An oceanic origin for the increase of atmospheric radiocarbon during the Younger Dryas

Variations in carbon-14 to carbon-12 ratio in the atmosphere (Δ14Catm) provide a powerful diagnostic for elucidating the timing and nature of geophysical and anthropological change. The (Atlantic) marine archive suggests a rapid Δ14Catm increase of 50‰ at the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal (12.9–11.7 kyr BP), which has not yet been satisfactorily explained in terms of magnitude or causal mechanism, as either a change in ocean ventilation or production rate. Using Earth-system model simulations and comparison of marine-based radiocarbon records from different ocean basins, we demonstrate that the YD Δ14Catm increase is smaller than suggested by the marine archive. This is due to changes in reservoir age, predominantly caused by reduced ocean ventilation.

The atmospheric impact of uncertainties in recent Arctic Sea ice reconstructions

There are significant discrepancies between observational datasets of Arctic sea ice concentrations covering the last three decades, which result in differences of over 20% in Arctic summer sea ice extent/area and 5%–10% in winter. Previous modeling studies have shown that idealized sea ice anomalies have the potential for making a substantial impact on climate. In this paper, this theory is further developed by performing a set of simulations using the third Hadley Centre Coupled Atmospheric Model (HadAM3). The model was driven with monthly climatologies of sea ice fractions derived from three of these records to investigate potential implications of sea ice inaccuracies for climate simulations. The standard sea ice climatology from the Met Office provided a control. This study focuses on the effects of actual inaccuracies of concentration retrievals, which vary spatially and are larger in summer than winter. The smaller sea ice discrepancies in winter have a much larger influence on climate than the much greater summer sea ice differences. High sensitivity to sea ice prescription was observed, even though no SST feedbacks were included. Significant effects on surface fields were observed in the Arctic, North Atlantic, and North Pacific. Arctic average surface air temperature anomalies in winter vary by 2.5°C, and locally exceed 12°C. Arctic mean sea level pressure varies by up to 5 mb locally. Anomalies extend to 45°N over North America and Eurasia but not to lower latitudes, and with limited changes in circulation above the boundary layer. No statistically significant impact on climate variability was simulated, in terms of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Results suggest that the uncertainty in summer sea ice prescription is not critical but that winter values require greater accuracy, with the caveats that the influences of ocean–sea ice feedbacks were not included in this study.

Impact of atmospheric forcing on Antarctic continental shelf water masses

The Antarctic continental shelf seas feature a bimodal distribution of water mass temperature, with the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas flooded by Circumpolar Deep Water that is several degrees Celsius warmer than the cold shelf waters prevalent in the Weddell and Ross Seas. This bimodal distribution could be caused by differences in atmospheric forcing, ocean dynamics, ocean and ice feedbacks, or some combination of these factors. In this study, a highly simplified coupled sea ice–mixed layer model is developed to investigate the physical processes controlling this situation. Under regional atmospheric forcings and parameter choices the 10-yr simulations demonstrate a complete destratification of the Weddell Sea water column in winter, forming cold, relatively saline shelf waters, while the Amundsen Sea winter mixed layer remains shallower, allowing a layer of deep warm water to persist. Applying the Weddell atmospheric forcing to the Amundsen Sea model destratifies the water column after two years, and applying the Amundsen forcing to the Weddell Sea model results in a shallower steady-state winter mixed layer that no longer destratifies the water column. This suggests that the regional difference in atmospheric forcings alone is sufficient to account for the bimodal distribution in Antarctic shelf-sea temperatures. The model prediction of mixed layer depth is most sensitive to the air temperature forcing, but a switch in all forcings is required to prevent destratification of the Weddell Sea water column.

Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 atmospheric general circulation models in the period 1979-1988

As a part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), the behaviour of 15 general circulation models has been analysed in order to diagnose and compare the ability of the different models in simulating Northern Hemisphere midlatitude atmospheric blocking. In accordance with the established AMIP procedure, the 10-year model integrations were performed using prescribed, time-evolving monthly mean observed SSTs spanning the period January 1979–December 1988. Atmospheric observational data (ECMWF analyses) over the same period have been also used to verify the models results. The models involved in this comparison represent a wide spectrum of model complexity, with different horizontal and vertical resolution, numerical techniques and physical parametrizations, and exhibit large differences in blocking behaviour. Nevertheless, a few common features can be found, such as the general tendency to underestimate both blocking frequency and the average duration of blocks. The problem of the possible relationship between model blocking and model systematic errors has also been assessed, although without resorting to ad-hoc numerical experimentation it is impossible to relate with certainty particular model deficiencies in representing blocking to precise parts of the model formulation.

Some results from an intercomparison of the climates simulated by 14 atmospheric general circulation models

Some climatological information from 14 atmospheric general circulation models is presented and compared in order to assess the ability of a broad group of models to simulate current climate. The quantities considered are cross sections of temperature, zonal wind, and meridional stream function together with latitudinal distributions of mean sea level pressure and precipitation rate. The nature of the deficiencies in the simulated climates that are common to all models and those which differ among models is investigated; the general improvement in the ability of models to simulate certain aspects of the climate is shown; consideration is given to the effect of increasing resolution on simulated climate; and approaches to understanding and reducing model deficiencies are discussed. The information presented here is a subset of a more voluminous compilation which is available in report form (Boer et al., 1991). This report contains essentially the same text, but results from all 14 models are presented together with additional results in the form of geographical distributions of surface variables and certain difference statistics.

An intercomparison of the climates simulated by 14 atmospheric general circulation models

Climatological information from fourteen atmospheric general circulation models is presented and compared in order to assess the ability of a broad group of models to simulate current climate. The quantities considered are cross sections of temperature, zonal wind and meridional stream function together with latitudinal distributions of mean sea-level pressure and precipitation rate. The nature of the deficiencies in the simulated climates that are common to all models and those which differ among models is investigated, general improvement in the ability of models to simulate certain aspects of the climate is shown, consideration is given to the effect of increasing resolution on simulated climate and approaches to the understanding and reduction of model deficiencies are discussed.

Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 atmospheric general circulation models in the period 1979-1988 (Results from an AMIP diagnostic subproject)

As a part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), the behaviour of 15 general circulation models has been analysed in order to diagnose and compare the ability of the different models in simulating Northern Hemisphere midlatitude atmospheric blocking. In accordance with the established AMIP procedure, the 10-year model integrations were performed using prescribed, time-evolving monthly mean observed SSTs spanning the period January 1979–December 1988. Atmospheric observational data (ECMWF analyses) over the same period have been also used to verify the models results. The models involved in this comparison represent a wide spectrum of model complexity, with different horizontal and vertical resolution, numerical techniques and physical parametrizations, and exhibit large differences in blocking behaviour. Nevertheless, a few common features can be found, such as the general tendency to underestimate both blocking frequency and the average duration of blocks. The problem of the possible relationship between model blocking and model systematic errors has also been assessed, although without resorting to ad-hoc numerical experimentation it is impossible to relate with certainty particular model deficiencies in representing blocking to precise parts of the model formulation.

Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study.

We present a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning in the Upper Huai catchment (ca. 30 672 km2). TIGGE ensemble forecasts from 6 meteorological centres with 10-day lead time were extracted and disaggregated to drive the Xinanjiang model to forecast discharges for flood events in July-September 2008. The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting skills with clear signals of floods up to 10 days in advance. The forecasts occasionally show discrepancies both in time and space. Forecasting quality could potentially be improved by using temporal and spatial corrections of the forecasted precipitation.

A semi-distributed ntegrated itrogen model for multiple source assessment in tchments (INCA): Part I — model structure and process equations

A new model has been developed for assessing multiple sources of nitrogen in catchments. The model (INCA) is process based and uses reaction kinetic equations to simulate the principal mechanisms operating. The model allows for plant uptake, surface and sub-surface pathways and can simulate up to six land uses simultaneously. The model can be applied to catchment as a semi-distributed simulation and has an inbuilt multi-reach structure for river systems. Sources of nitrogen can be from atmospheric deposition, from the terrestrial environment (e.g. agriculture, leakage from forest systems etc.), from urban areas or from direct discharges via sewage or intensive farm units. The model is a daily simulation model and can provide information in the form of time series at key sites, or as profiles down river systems or as statistical distributions. The process model is described and in a companion paper the model is applied to the River Tywi catchment in South Wales and the Great Ouse in Bedfordshire.

Importance of initial state and atmospheric conditions for urban land surface models' performance

Urban land surface models (LSM) are commonly evaluated for short periods (a few weeks to months) because of limited observational data. This makes it difficult to distinguish the impact of initial conditions on model performance or to consider the response of a model to a range of possible atmospheric conditions. Drawing on results from the first urban LSM comparison, these two issues are considered. Assessment shows that the initial soil moisture has a substantial impact on the performance. Models initialised with soils that are too dry are not able to adjust their surface sensible and latent heat fluxes to realistic values until there is sufficient rainfall. Models initialised with too wet soils are not able to restrict their evaporation appropriately for periods in excess of a year. This has implications for short term evaluation studies and implies the need for soil moisture measurements to improve data assimilation and model initialisation. In contrast, initial conditions influencing the thermal storage have a much shorter adjustment timescale compared to soil moisture. Most models partition too much of the radiative energy at the surface into the sensible heat flux at the probable expense of the net storage heat flux.

Reduced-order dynamics of the Martian atmospheric dynamics

In this paper we explore the possibility of deriving low-dimensional models of the dynamics of the Martian atmosphere. The analysis consists of a Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) of the atmospheric streamfunction after first decomposing the vertical structure with a set of eigenmodes. The vertical modes were obtained from the quasi-geostrophic vertical structure equation. The empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were optimized to represent the atmospheric total energy. The total energy was used as the criterion to retain those modes with large energy content and discard the rest. The principal components (PCs) were analysed by means of Fourier analysis, so that the dominant frequencies could be identified. It was possible to observe the strong influence of the diurnal cycle and to identify the motion and vacillation of baroclinic waves.

Understanding and representing atmospheric convection across scales: recommendations from the meeting held at Dartington Hall, Devon, UK, 28–30 January 2013

As weather and climate models move toward higher resolution, there is growing excitement about potential future improvements in the understanding and prediction of atmospheric convection and its interaction with larger-scale phenomena. A meeting in January 2013 in Dartington, Devon was convened to address the best way to maximise these improvements, specifically in a UK context but with international relevance. Specific recommendations included increased convective-scale observations, high-resolution virtual laboratories, and a system of parameterization test beds with a range of complexities. The main recommendation was to facilitate the development of physically based convective parameterizations that are scale-aware, non-local, non-equilibrium, and stochastic.

Basic theory behind parameterizing atmospheric convection

Last fall, a network of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST), called “Basic Concepts for Convection Parameterization in Weather Forecast and Climate Models” (COST Action ES0905; see http://w3.cost.esf.org/index.php?id=205&action_number=ES0905), organized a 10-day training course on atmospheric convection and its parameterization. The aim of the workshop, held on the island of Brac, Croatia, was to help young scientists develop an in-depth understanding of the core theory underpinning convection parameterizations. The speakers also sought to impart an appreciation of the various approximations, compromises, and ansatz necessary to translate theory into operational practice for numerical models.