Evaluating the Predictability of the Volatility Smile Using Return Distributions

In this paper, we examine the predictability of observed volatility smiles in three major European index options markets, utilising the historical return distributions of the respective underlying assets. The analysis involves an application of the Black (1976) pricing model adjusted in accordance with the Jarrow-Rudd methodology as proposed in 1982. Thereby we adjust the expected future returns for the third and fourth central moments as these represent deviations from normality in the distributions of observed returns. Thus, they are considered one possible explanation to the existence of the smile. The obtained results indicate that the inclusion of the higher moments in the pricing model to some extent reduces the volatility smile, compared with the unadjusted Black-76 model. However, as the smile is partly a function of supply, demand, and liquidity, and as such intricate to model, this modification does not appear sufficient to fully capture the characteristics of the smile.

Stability of scheduled message communication over degraded broadcast channels

We develop a multi-class discrete-time processor-sharing queueing model for scheduled message communication over a discrete memoryless degraded broadcast channel. The framework we consider here models both the random message arrivals and the subsequent reliable communication by suitably combining techniques from queueing theory and information theory. Requests for message transmissions are assumed to arrive according to i.i.d. arrival processes. Then, (i) we derive an outer bound to the stability region of message arrival rate vectors achievable by the class of stationary scheduling policies, (ii) we show for any message arrival rate vector that satisfies the outer bound, that there exists a stationary "state-independent" policy that results in a stable system for the corresponding message arrival processes, and (iii) under an asymptotic regime, we show that the stability region of information arrival rate vectors is the information-theoretic capacity region of a degraded broadcast channel.

The Power of Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

Bootstrap likelihood ratio tests of cointegration rank are commonly used because they tend to have rejection probabilities that are closer to the nominal level than the rejection probabilities of the correspond- ing asymptotic tests. The e¤ect of bootstrapping the test on its power is largely unknown. We show that a new computationally inexpensive procedure can be applied to the estimation of the power function of the bootstrap test of cointegration rank. The bootstrap test is found to have a power function close to that of the level-adjusted asymp- totic test. The bootstrap test estimates the level-adjusted power of the asymptotic test highly accurately. The bootstrap test may have low power to reject the null hypothesis of cointegration rank zero, or underestimate the cointegration rank. An empirical application to Euribor interest rates is provided as an illustration of the findings.

Reliability models for existing structures based on dynamic state estimation and data based asymptotic extreme value analysis

The problem of time variant reliability analysis of existing structures subjected to stationary random dynamic excitations is considered. The study assumes that samples of dynamic response of the structure, under the action of external excitations, have been measured at a set of sparse points on the structure. The utilization of these measurements m in updating reliability models, postulated prior to making any measurements, is considered. This is achieved by using dynamic state estimation methods which combine results from Markov process theory and Bayes' theorem. The uncertainties present in measurements as well as in the postulated model for the structural behaviour are accounted for. The samples of external excitations are taken to emanate from known stochastic models and allowance is made for ability (or lack of it) to measure the applied excitations. The future reliability of the structure is modeled using expected structural response conditioned on all the measurements made. This expected response is shown to have a time varying mean and a random component that can be treated as being weakly stationary. For linear systems, an approximate analytical solution for the problem of reliability model updating is obtained by combining theories of discrete Kalman filter and level crossing statistics. For the case of nonlinear systems, the problem is tackled by combining particle filtering strategies with data based extreme value analysis. In all these studies, the governing stochastic differential equations are discretized using the strong forms of Ito-Taylor's discretization schemes. The possibility of using conditional simulation strategies, when applied external actions are measured, is also considered. The proposed procedures are exemplifiedmby considering the reliability analysis of a few low-dimensional dynamical systems based on synthetically generated measurement data. The performance of the procedures developed is also assessed based on a limited amount of pertinent Monte Carlo simulations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis,Insights and Generalization of a Fast Decentralized Relay Selection Mechanism

Relay selection for cooperative communications has attracted considerable research interest recently. While several criteria have been proposed for selecting one or more relays and analyzed, mechanisms that perform the selection in a distributed manner have received relatively less attention. In this paper, we analyze a splitting algorithm for selecting the single best relay amongst a known number of active nodes in a cooperative network. We develop new and exact asymptotic analysis for computing the average number of slots required to resolve the best relay. We then propose and analyze a new algorithm that addresses the general problem of selecting the best Q >= 1 relays. Regardless of the number of relays, the algorithm selects the best two relays within 4.406 slots and the best three within 6.491 slots, on average. Our analysis also brings out an intimate relationship between multiple access selection and multiple access control algorithms.

Generalized asymptotic expansions for coupled wavenumbers in fluid-filled cylindrical shells

Analytical expressions are found for the coupled wavenumbers in an infinite fluid-filled cylindrical shell using the asymptotic methods. These expressions are valid for any general circumferential order (n).The shallow shell theory (which is more accurate at higher frequencies)is used to model the cylinder. Initially, the in vacua shell is dealt with and asymptotic expressions are derived for the shell wavenumbers in the high-and the low-frequency regimes. Next, the fluid-filled shell is considered. Defining a relevant fluid-loading parameter p, we find solutions for the limiting cases of small and large p. Wherever relevant, a frequency scaling parameter along with some ingenuity is used to arrive at an elegant asymptotic expression. In all cases.Poisson's ratio v is used as an expansion variable. The asymptotic results are compared with numerical solutions of the dispersion equation and the dispersion relation obtained by using the more general Donnell-Mushtari shell theory (in vacuo and fluid-filled). A good match is obtained. Hence, the contribution of this work lies in the extension of the existing literature to include arbitrary circumferential orders(n). (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Some recent results on the stability of linear time varying systems

Some theorems derived recently by the authors on the stability of multidimensional linear time varying systems are reported in this paper. To begin with, criteria based on Liapunov�s direct method are stated. These are followed by conditions on the asymptotic behaviour and boundedness of solutions. Finally,L 2 andL ? stabilities of these systems are discussed. In conclusion, mention is made of some of the problems in aerospace engineering to which these theorems have been applied.

Steady compressible flow of granular materials through a wedge-shaped hopper: The smooth wall, radial gravity problem

A continuum model based on the critical state theory of soil mechanics is used to generate stress and density profiles, and to compute discharge velocities for the plane flow of cohesionless materials. Two types of yield loci are employed, namely, a yield locus with a corner, and a smooth yield locus. The yield locus with a corner leads to computational difficulties. For the smooth yield locus, results are found to be relatively insensitive to the shape of the yield locus, the location of the upper traction-free surface and the density specified on this surface. This insensitivity arises from the existence of asymptotic stress and density fields, to which the solution tends to converge on moving down the hopper. Numerical and approximate analytical solutions are obtained for these fields and the latter is used to derive an expression for the discharge velocity. This relation predicts discharge velocities to within 13% of the exact (numerical) values. While the assumption of incompressibility has been frequently used in the literature, it is shown here that in some cases, this leads to discharge velocities which are significantly higher than those obtained by the incorporation of density variation.

Steady flow of couple stress fluid through tubes of slowly varying cross-sections--application to blood flows

Steady laminar flow of a non-Newtonian fluid based on couple stress fluid theory, through narrow tubes of varying cross-sections has been studied theoretically. Asymptotic solutions are obtained for the basic equations and the expressions for the velocity field and the wall shear stress are derived for a general cross-section. Computation and discussions are carried out for the geometries which occur in the context of physiological flows or in particular blood flows. The tapered tubes and constricted tubes are of special importance. It is observed that increase in certain parameters results in erratic flow behaviour proximal to the constricted areas which is further enhanced by the increase in the geometric parameters. This elucidates the implications of the flow in the development of vascular lesions.

Climatic adaptation of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karsten) in Finland based on male flowering phenology.

Anthesis was studied at the canopy level in 10 Norway spruce stands from 9 localities in Finland from 1963 to 1974. Distributions of pollen catches were compared to the normal Gaussian distribution. The basis for the timing studies was the 50 per cent point of the anthesis-fitted normal distribution. Development up to this point was given in calendar days, in degree days (>5 °C) and in period units. The count of each parameter began on March 19 (included). Male flowering in Norway spruce stands was found to have more annual variation in quantity than in Scots pine stands studied earlier. Anthesis in spruce in northern Finland occurred at a later date than in the south. The heat sums needed for anthesis varied latitudinally less in spruce than in pine. The variation of pollen catches in spruce increased towards north-west as in the case of Scots pine. In the unprocessed data, calendar days were found to be the most accurate forecast of anthesis in Norway spruce both for a single year and for the majority of cases of stand averages over several years. Locally, the period unit could be a more accurate parameter for the stand average. However, on a calendar day basis, when annual deviations between expected and measured heat sums were converted to days, period units were narrowly superior to days. The geographical correlations respect to timing of flowering, calculated against distances measured along simulated post-glacial migration routes, were stronger than purely latitudinal correlations. Effects of the reinvasion of Norway spruce into Finland are thus still visible in spruce populations just as they were in Scots pine populations. The proportion of the average annual heat sum needed for spruce anthesis grew rapidly north of a latitude of ca. 63° and the heat sum needed for anthesis decreased only slighty towards the timberline. In light of flowering phenology, it seems probable that the northwesterly third of Finnish Norway spruce populations are incompletely adapted to the prevailing cold climate. A moderate warming of the climate would therefore be beneficial for Norway spruce. This accords roughly with the adaptive situation in Scots pine.

Effect of soil preparation of boreal spruce forest on air and soil temperature conditions in forest regeneration areas.

The effect of scarification, ploughing and cross-directional plouhing on temperature conditions in the soil and adjacent air layer have been studied during 11 consecutive growth periods by using an unprepared clear-cut area as a control site. The maximum and minimum temperatures were measured daily in the summer months, and other temperature observations were made at four-hour intervals by means of a Grant measuring instrument. The development of the seedling stand was also followed in order to determine its shading effect on the soil surface. Soil preparation decreased the daily temperature amplitude of the air at the height of 10 cm. The maximum temperatures on sunny days were lower in the tilts of the ploughed and in the humps of the cross-directional ploughed sites compared with the unprepared area. Correspondingly, the night temperatures were higher and so the soil preparation considerably reduced the risk of night frost. In the soil at the depth of 5 cm, soil preparation increased daytime temperatures and reduced night temperatures compared with unprepared area. The maximum increase in monthly mean temperatures was almost 5 °C, and the daily variation in the surface parts of the tilts and humps increased so that excessively high temperatures for the optimal growth of the root system were measured from time to time. The temperature also rose at the depths of 50 and 100 cm. Soil preparation also increased the cumulative temperature sum. The highest sums accumulated during the summer months were recorded at the depth of 5 cm in the humps of cross-directional ploughed area (1127 dd.) and in the tilts of the ploughed area (1106 dd.), while the corresponding figure in the unprepared soil was 718 dd. At the height of 10 cm the highest temperature sum was 1020 dd. in the hump, the corresponding figure in the unprepared area being 925 dd. The incidence of high temperature amplitudes and percentage of high temperatures at the depth of 5 cm decreased most rapidly in the humps of cross-directional ploughed area and in the ploughing tilts towards the end of the measurement period. The decrease was attributed principally to the compressing of tilts, the ground vegetation succession and the growth of seedlings. The mean summer temperature in the unprepared area was lower than in the prepared area and the difference did not diminish during the period studied. The increase in temperature brought about by soil preparation thus lasts at least more than 10 years.

Differences in the climatic adaptation of silver birch (Betula pendula) and downy birch (B. pubescens) in Finland based on male flowering phenology.

Male flowering was studied at the canopy level in 10 silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) stands from 8 localities and in 14 downy birch (B. pubescens Ehrh.) stands from 10 localities in Finland from 1963 to 1973. Distributions of cumulative pollen catches were compared to the normal Gaussian distribution. The basis for the timing of flowering was the 50 per cent point of the anthesis-fitted normal distribution. To eliminate effects of background pollen, only the central, normally distributed part of the cumulative distribution was used. Development up to the median point of the distribution was measured and tested in calendar days, in degree days (> 5 °C) and in period units. The count of each parameter began on and included March 19. Male flowering in silver birch occurred from late April to late June depending on latitude, and flowering in downy birch took place from early May to early July. The heat sums needed for male flowering varied in downy birch stands latitudinally but there was practically no latitudinal variation in heat sums needed for silver birch flowering. The amount of male flowering in stands of both birch species were found to have a large annual variation but without any clear periodicity. The between years pollen catch variation in stands of either birch species did not show any significant latitudinal correlation in contrast to Norway spruce stands. The period unit heat sum gave the most accurate forecast of the timing of flowering for 60 per cent of the silver birch stands and for 78.6 per cent of the for downy birch stands. Calendar days, however, gave the best forecast for silver birch in 25 per cent of the cases, while degree days gave the best forecast for downy birch in 21.4 per cent of the cases. Silver birch seems to have a local inclination for a more fixed flowering date compared to downy birch, which could mean a considerable photoperiodic influence on flowering time of silver birch. Silver birch and downy birch had different geographical correlations. Frequent hybridization of birch species occurs more often in northern Finland in than in more southern latitudes. The different timing in flowering caused increasing scatter in flowering times in the north, especially in the case of downy birch. The chance of simultaneous flowering of silver birch and downy birch so increased northwards due to a more variable climate and also higher altitudinal variations. Compared with conifers, the reproduction cycles of both birch species were found to be well protected from damage by frost.

Steady incompressible flow of cohesionless granular materials through a wedge-shaped hopper: Frictional 14kinetic solution to the smooth wall, radial gravity problem

Hybrid frictional-kinetic equations are used to predict the velocity, grain temperature, and stress fields in hoppers. A suitable choice of dimensionless variables permits the pseudo-thermal energy balance to be decoupled from the momentum balance. These balances contain a small parameter, which is analogous to a reciprocal Reynolds number. Hence an approximate semi-analytical solution is constructed using perturbation methods. The energy balance is solved using the method of matched asymptotic expansions. The effect of heat conduction is confined to a very thin boundary layer near the exit, where it causes a marginal change in the temperature. Outside this layer, the temperature T increases rapidly as the radial coordinate r decreases. In particular, the conduction-free energy balance yields an asymptotic solution, valid for small values of r, of the form T proportional r-4. There is a corresponding increase in the kinetic stresses, which attain their maximum values at the hopper exit. The momentum balance is solved by a regular perturbation method. The contribution of the kinetic stresses is important only in a small region near the exit, where the frictional stresses tend to zero. Therefore, the discharge rate is only about 2.3% lower than the frictional value, for typical parameter values. As in the frictional case, the discharge rate for deep hoppers is found to be independent of the head of material.

Low reynolds number flow of a dilute suspension in slowly varying tubes

We have discussed here the flow of a dilute suspension of rigid particles in Newtonian fluid in slowly varying tubes characterized by a small parameter ε. Solutions are presented in the form of asymptotic expansions in powers of ε. The effect of the suspension on the fluid is described by two parameters β and γ which depend on the volume fraction of the particles which we assume to be small. It is found that the presence of the particles accelerate the process of eddy formation near the constriction and shifts the point of separation.

2-Dimensional Linear-Stability of Premixed Laminar Flames Under Zero-Gravity

This paper reports on the numerical study of the linear stability of laminar premixed flames under zero gravity. The study specifically addresses the dependence of stability on finite rate chemistry with low activation energy and variable thermodynamic and transport properties. The calculations show that activation energy and details of chemistry play a minor role in altering the linear neutral stability results from asymptotic analysis. Variable specific heat makes a marginal change to the stability. Variable transport properties on the other hand tend to substantially enhance the stability from critical wave number of about 0.5 to 0.20. Also, it appears that the effects of variable properties tend to nullify the effects of non-unity Lewis number. When the Lewis number of a single species is different from unity, as will happen in a hydrogen-air premixed flame, the stability results remain close to that of unity Lewis number.