Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the stratosphere, the strong heating leads to an acceleration of catalytic ozone loss and, consequently, to enhancements of UV radiation at the ground. In contrast to surface temperature and precipitation changes, which show a linear dependence to the soot burden, there is a saturation effect with respect to stratospheric ozone chemistry. Soot emissions of 5 Tg lead to an ozone column reduction of almost 50% in northern high latitudes, while emitting 12 Tg only increases ozone loss by a further 10%. In summary, this study, though using a different chemistry climate model, corroborates the previous investigations with respect to the atmospheric impacts. In addition to these persistent effects, the present study draws attention to episodically cold phases, which would likely add to the severity of human harm worldwide. The best insurance against such a catastrophic development would be the delegitimization of nuclear weapons.

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

Ultraviolet radiation intensity predicts the relative distribution of dermatomyositis and anti-Mi-2 autoantibodies in women.

OBJECTIVE: Because studies suggest that ultraviolet (UV) radiation modulates the myositis phenotype and Mi-2 autoantigen expression, we conducted a retrospective investigation to determine whether UV radiation may influence the relative prevalence of dermatomyositis and anti-Mi-2 autoantibodies in the US. METHODS: We assessed the relationship between surface UV radiation intensity in the state of residence at the time of onset with the relative prevalence of dermatomyositis and myositis autoantibodies in 380 patients with myositis from referral centers in the US. Myositis autoantibodies were detected by validated immunoprecipitation assays. Surface UV radiation intensity was estimated from UV Index data collected by the US National Weather Service. RESULTS: UV radiation intensity was associated with the relative proportion of patients with dermatomyositis (odds ratio [OR] 2.3, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.9-5.8) and with the proportion of patients expressing anti-Mi-2 autoantibodies (OR 6.0, 95% CI 1.1-34.1). Modeling of these data showed that these associations were confined to women (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.3-11.0 and OR 17.3, 95% CI 1.8-162.4, respectively) and suggests that sex influences the effects of UV radiation on autoimmune disorders. Significant associations were not observed in men, nor were UV radiation levels related to the presence of antisynthetase or anti-signal recognition particle autoantibodies. CONCLUSION: This first study of the distribution of myositis phenotypes and UV radiation exposure in the US showed that UV radiation may modulate the clinical and immunologic expression of autoimmune disease in women. Further investigation of the mechanisms by which these effects are produced may provide insights into pathogenesis and suggest therapeutic or preventative strategies.

Minimizing radiation injury and neoplastic effects during pediatric fluoroscopy: what should we know?

Radiation-induced injuries from fluoroscopic procedures in pediatric patients have occurred, and young patients are at greatest risk of many radiation-induced neoplasms. Some fluoroscopists have been injured from their use of fluoroscopy, and they are known to be at risk of radiation-induced neoplasm when radiation is not well-controlled. This article reviews the circumstances that lead to radiation injury and delineates some procedural methods to avoid injury and limit radiation exposure to both the patient and the fluoroscopist.

Contribution of Starlette, Stella, and AJISAI to the SLR-derived global reference frame

The contribution of Starlette, Stella, and AJI-SAI is currently neglected when defining the International Terrestrial Reference Frame, despite a long time series of precise SLR observations and a huge amount of available data. The inferior accuracy of the orbits of low orbiting geodetic satellites is the main reason for this neglect. The Analysis Centers of the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS ACs) do, however, consider including low orbiting geodetic satellites for deriving the standard ILRS products based on LAGEOS and Etalon satellites, instead of the sparsely observed, and thus, virtually negligible Etalons. We process ten years of SLR observations to Starlette, Stella, AJISAI, and LAGEOS and we assess the impact of these Low Earth Orbiting (LEO) SLR satellites on the SLR-derived parameters. We study different orbit parameterizations, in particular different arc lengths and the impact of pseudo-stochastic pulses and dynamical orbit parameters on the quality of the solutions. We found that the repeatability of the East and North components of station coordinates, the quality of polar coordinates, and the scale estimates of the reference are improved when combining LAGEOS with low orbiting SLR satellites. In the multi-SLR solutions, the scale and the Z component of geocenter coordinates are less affected by deficiencies in solar radiation pressure modeling than in the LAGEOS-1/2 solutions, due to substantially reduced correlations between the Z geocenter coordinate and empirical orbit parameters. Eventually, we found that the standard values of Center-of-mass corrections (CoM) for geodetic LEO satellites are not valid for the currently operating SLR systems. The variations of station-dependent differential range biases reach 52 and 25 mm for AJISAI and Starlette/Stella, respectively, which is why estimating station dependent range biases or using station-dependent CoM, instead of one value for all SLR stations, is strongly recommended.This clearly indicates that the ILRS effort to produce CoM corrections for each satellite, which are site-specific and depend on the system characteristics at the time of tracking,is very important and needs to be implemented in the SLR data analysis.

Relation between Excitation Power Density and Er3+ Doping Yielding the Highest Absolute Upconversion Quantum Yield

The upconversion quantum yield (UCQY) is one of the most significant parameters for upconverter materials. A high UCQY is essential for a succesful integration of upconversion in many applications, such as harvesting of the solar radiation. However, little is known about which doping level of the rare-earth ions yields the highest UCQY in the different host lattices and what are the underlying causes. Here, we investigate which Er3+ doping yields the highest UCQY in the host lattices β-NaYF4 and Gd2O2S under 4I15/2 → 4I13/2 excitation. We show for both host lattices that the optimum Er3+ doping is not fixed and it actually decreases as the irradiance of the excitation increases. To find the optimum Er3+ doping for a given irradiance, we determined the peak position of the internal UCQY as a function of the average Er−Er distance. For this purpose, we used a fit on experimental data, where the average Er−Er distance was calculated from the Er3+ doping of the upconverter samples and the lattice parameters of the host materials. We observe optimum average Er−Er distances for the host lattices β-NaYF4 and Gd2O2S with differences <14% at the same irradiance levels, whereas the optimum Er3+ doping are around 2× higher for β-NaYF4 than for Gd2O2S. Estimations by extrapolation to higher irradiances indicate that the optimum average Er−Er distance converges to values around 0.88 and 0.83 nm for β-NaYF4 and Gd2O2S, respectively. Our findings point to a fundamental relationship and focusing on the average distance between the active rare-earth ions might be a very efficient way to optimize the doping of rare-earth ions with regard to the highest achievable UCQY.

Background Ionizing Radiation and the Risk of Childhood Cancer: A Census-Based Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND Exposure to medium or high doses of ionizing radiation is a known risk factor for cancer in children. The extent to which low dose radiation from natural sources contributes to the risk of childhood cancer remains unclear. OBJECTIVES In a nationwide census-based cohort study, we investigated whether the incidence of childhood cancer was associated with background radiation from terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays. METHODS Children aged <16 years in the Swiss National Censuses in 1990 and 2000 were included. The follow-up period lasted until 2008 and incident cancer cases were identified from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. A radiation model was used to predict dose rates from terrestrial and cosmic radiation at locations of residence. Cox regression models were used to assess associations between cancer risk and dose rates and cumulative dose since birth. RESULTS Among 2,093,660 children included at census, 1,782 incident cases of cancer were identified including 530 with leukemia, 328 with lymphoma, and 423 with a tumor of the central nervous system (CNS). Hazard ratios for each mSv increase in cumulative dose of external radiation were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.05) for any cancer, 1.04 (1.00, 1.08) for leukemia, 1.01 (0.96, 1.05) for lymphoma, and 1.04 (1.00, 1.08) for CNS tumors. Adjustment for a range of potential confounders had little effect on the results. CONCLUSIONS Our study suggests that background radiation may contribute to the risk of cancer in children including leukemia and CNS tumors.

Vitamin D status among children and adolescents on anticonvulsant drugs in southern Switzerland.

INTRODUCTION It is recognised that vitamin D status is often inadequate (<50 nmol/l) in epileptic children, mainly because some anticonvulsant drugs induce the enzymes responsible for its metabolism. The purpose of the present study was to address vitamin D status among children and adolescents treated with anticonvulsant drugs and control subjects who reside in southern Switzerland, a high solar radiation region. METHODS Between January and May 2013, total serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D was assessed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry in 58 children and adolescents with epilepsy and 29 controls residing in southern Switzerland. Dark-skinned individuals, females wearing dress styles covering practically the whole body and subjects with body mass index ≥85th percentile for age and sex were excluded. RESULTS Concentration of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D was similar in epilepsy patients (48 [37-62] nmol/l; median and interquartile range) and controls (53 [47-64] nmol/l). An inadequate serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration was common both among patients (55%) and control subjects (34%). Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D was significantly lower among patients treated with anticonvulsant drugs that induce the metabolism of vitamin D (30 [21-51] nmol/l) than among the remaining patients (51 [40-65] nmol/l) and controls. CONCLUSIONS The present study indicates a relevant tendency towards inadequate vitamin D status among children with and without anticonvulsant drug management who reside in southern Switzerland. This tendency is more prominent in patients treated with anticonvulsant drugs that induce the metabolism of 25-hydroxyvitamin D.

A comment on the article “A collinearity diagnosis of the GNSS geocenter determination” by P. Rebischung, Z. Altamimi, and T. Springer

Meindl et al. (Adv Space Res 51(7):1047–1064, 2013) showed that the geocenter z -component estimated from observations of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) is strongly correlated to a particular parameter of the solar radiation pressure (SRP) model developed by Beutler et al. (Manuscr Geod 19:367–386, 1994). They analyzed the forces caused by SRP and the impact on the satellites’ orbits. The authors achieved their results using perturbation theory and celestial mechanics. Rebischung et al. (J Geod doi:10.1016/j.asr.2012.10.026, 2013) also deal with the geocenter determination with GNSS. The authors carried out a collinearity diagnosis of the associated parameter estimation problem. They conclude “without much exaggerating that current GNSS are insensitive to any component of geocenter motion”. They explain this inability by the high degree of collinearity of the geocenter coordinates mainly with satellite clock corrections. Based on these results and additional experiments, they state that the conclusions drawn by Meindl et al. (Adv Space Res 51(7):1047–1064, 2013) are questionable. We do not agree with these conclusions and present our arguments in this article. In the first part, we review and highlight the main characteristics of the studies performed by Meindl et al. (Adv Space Res 51(7):1047–1064, 2013) to show that the experiments are quite different from those performed by Rebischung et al. (J Geod doi:10.1016/j.asr.2012.10.026,2013) . In the second part, we show that normal equation (NEQ) systems are regular when estimating geocenter coordinates, implying that the covariance matrices associated with the NEQ systems may be used to assess the sensitivity to geocenter coordinates in a standard way. The sensitivity of GNSS to the components of the geocenter is discussed. Finally, we comment on the arguments raised by Rebischung et al. (J Geod doi:10.1016/j.asr.2012.10.026, 2013) against the results of Meindl et al. (Adv Space Res 51(7):1047–1064, 2013).

Galileo Orbit and Clock Quality of the IGS Multi-GNSS Experiment

The Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) of the International GNSS Service (IGS) aims at the data collection and analysis of all available satellite navigation systems. In particular the new global and regional satellite navigation systems are of interest, i.e., the European Galileo, the Chinese BeiDou, the Japanese QZSS as well as satellite based augmentation systems. This article analyzes the orbit and clock quality of the Galileo products of four MGEX analysis centers for a common time period of 20 weeks. Orbit comparisons of the individual analysis centers have a consistency at the 5–30 cm level. Day boundary discontinuities range from 4 to 28 cm whereas 2-day orbit fit RMS values vary between 1 and 7 cm. The accuracy evaluated by satellite laser ranging residuals is on the one decimeter level with a systematic bias of about −5 cm for all analysis centers. In addition, systematic errors on the decimeter level related to solar radiation pressure mismodeling are present in all orbit products. Due to the correlation of radial orbit errors with the clock parameters, these errors are also visible as a bump in the Allan deviation of the Galileo satellite clocks at the orbital frequency.

Terrestrial Radar Interferometric Measurement of Hillslope Deformation and Atmospheric Disturbances in the Illgraben Debris-Flow Catchment, Switzerland

We describe a method for rapid identification and precise quantification of slope deformation using a portable radar interferometer. A rockslide with creep-like behavior was identified in the rugged and inaccessible headwaters of the Illgraben debris-flow catchment, located in the Central Swiss Alps. The estimated volume of the moving rock mass was approximately 0.5 x 10(6) m(3) with a maximum daily (3-D) displacement rate of 3 mm. Fast scene acquisition in the order of 6 s/scene led to uniquely precise mapping of spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric phase delay. Observations led to a simple qualitative model for prediction of atmospheric disturbances using a simple model for solar radiation, which can be used for advanced campaign planning for short observation periods (hours to days).

Satellite laser ranging to GPS and GLONASS

Satellite laser ranging (SLR) to the satellites of the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) provides substantial and valuable information about the accuracy and quality of GNSS orbits and allows for the SLR-GNSS co-location in space. In the framework of the NAVSTAR-SLR experiment two GPS satellites of Block-IIA were equipped with laser retroreflector arrays (LRAs), whereas all satellites of the GLONASS system are equipped with LRAs in an operational mode. We summarize the outcome of the NAVSTAR-SLR experiment by processing 20 years of SLR observations to GPS and 12 years of SLR observations to GLONASS satellites using the reprocessed microwave orbits provided by the center for orbit determination in Europe (CODE). The dependency of the SLR residuals on the size, shape, and number of corner cubes in LRAs is studied. We show that the mean SLR residuals and the RMS of residuals depend on the coating of the LRAs and the block or type of GNSS satellites. The SLR mean residuals are also a function of the equipment used at SLR stations including the single-photon and multi-photon detection modes. We also show that the SLR observations to GNSS satellites are important to validate GNSS orbits and to assess deficiencies in the solar radiation pressure models. We found that the satellite signature effect, which is defined as a spread of optical pulse signals due to reflection from multiple reflectors, causes the variations of mean SLR residuals of up to 15 mm between the observations at nadir angles of 0∘ and 14∘. in case of multi-photon SLR stations. For single-photon SLR stations this effect does not exceed 1 mm. When using the new empirical CODE orbit model (ECOM), the SLR mean residual falls into the range 0.1–1.8 mm for high-performing single-photon SLR stations observing GLONASS-M satellites with uncoated corner cubes. For best-performing multi-photon stations the mean SLR residuals are between −12.2 and −25.6 mm due to the satellite signature effect.

A consistent combination of GNSS and SLR with minimum constraints

In this article, the realization of a global terrestrial reference system (TRS) based on a consistent combination of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) is studied. Our input data consists of normal equation systems from 17 years (1994– 2010) of homogeneously reprocessed GPS, GLONASS and SLR data. This effort used common state of the art reduction models and the same processing software (Bernese GNSS Software) to ensure the highest consistency when combining GNSS and SLR. Residual surface load deformations are modeled with a spherical harmonic approach. The estimated degree-1 surface load coefficients have a strong annual signal for which the GNSS- and SLR-only solutions show very similar results. A combination including these coefficients reduces systematic uncertainties in comparison to the singletechnique solution. In particular, uncertainties due to solar radiation pressure modeling in the coefficient time series can be reduced up to 50 % in the GNSS+SLR solution compared to the GNSS-only solution. In contrast to the ITRF2008 realization, no local ties are used to combine the different geodetic techniques.We combine the pole coordinates as global ties and apply minimum constraints to define the geodetic datum. We show that a common origin, scale and orientation can be reliably realized from our combination strategy in comparison to the ITRF2008.