Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Breaking the 400 ppm barrier: Physical and Social implications of the recent CO2 rise

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The macroinvertebrate fauna of pools in the floodplain (fadama) of the Anambra River, Nigeria

The Anambra River is the largest tributary of the lower Niger River below Lukoja. Between the months of May and November the river is subject to seasonal flooding from heavy precipitation and land runoff into the drainage system. During the flood phase, pools form on the floodplains (known as the fadama) and these pools receive materials and biota from the main river channel. The biota often includes representatives of freshwater vertebrates (including fishes) and invertebrates. On this brief note, the authors report on the macroinvertebrates found during preliminary studies on four fadama pools during the non-flood season between December 1994 and April 1995. 523 specimens were collected, of which 86% were arthropods, 9% were annelids (mostly Tubifex and Nais) and a few leeches (Hirudo), and 5% were gastropod molluscs of the arthropods, 75% were insects particularly Hemiptera and Diptera.

A new synoptic survey of Northern Ireland lakes: sampling from the air

Northern Ireland has approximately 1670 lakes, which cover 4.4% of the land surface. However, most of the water area is accounted for by the large lakes such as Lough Neagh (385 km2) and Lower Lough Erne (109.5 km ). The majority of lakes are less than 100 hectares in area. They tend to be distributed towards the south and west of the Province, where extensive drumlin swarms are rich in small waterbodies. In 1988-1991, 610 of the 708 lakes between one and 100 hectares were sampled by the Northern Ireland Lake Survey. The objective was to assess their conservation status based on their aquatic macrophyte flora, but in addition to extensive plant surveys, the water of each lake was analysed for a range of chemical variables. This article reports on a full-scale survey carried out in early March 2002. The survey was taken with help of two helicopters. The authorise summarise the results of the chemical analysis of the survey.

Dynamics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Present and Future Climates

This thesis aims at enhancing our fundamental understanding of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and mechanisms implicated in its climatology in present-day and warmer climates. We focus on the most prominent feature of the EASM, i.e., the so-called Meiyu-Baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest to northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean in June and July.

We begin with an observational study of the energetics of the MB front in present-day climate. Analyses of the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind on the northwestern flank of the north Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region.

Similar mechanisms are shown to be implicated in present climate simulations in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We find that the spatial distribution of the EASM precipitation simulated by different models is highly correlated with the meridional stationary eddy velocity. The correlation becomes more robust when energy fluxes into the atmospheric column are considered, consistent with the observational analyses. The spread in the area-averaged rainfall amount can be partially explained by the spread in the simulated globally-averaged precipitation, with the rest primarily due to the lower-level meridional wind convergence. Clear relationships between precipitation and zonal and meridional eddy velocities are observed.

Finally, the response of the EASM to greenhouse gas forcing is investigated at different time scales in CMIP5 model simulations. The reduction of radiative cooling and the increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the rainfall in the monsoon region decreases (increases) over ocean (land) in most models. On longer time scales, as SSTs increase, rainfall changes are opposite. The total response to atmospheric CO^2 forcing and subsequent SST warming is a large (modest) increase in rainfall over ocean (land) in the EASM region. Dynamic changes, in spite of significant contributions from the thermodynamic component, play an important role in setting up the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. Rainfall anomalies over East China are a direct consequence of local land-sea contrast, while changes in the larger-scale oceanic rainfall band are closely associated with the displacement of the larger-scale NPSH. Numerical simulations show that topography and SST patterns play an important role in rainfall changes in the EASM region.

The Ribble. Portrait of an estuary

Blackpool, Lytham St. Anne's and Southport are household names as popular leisure and holiday resorts the length and breadth of the land. Their location at the mouth of the estuary of the River Ribble is much less well known, yet this same estuary is of paramount importance to both the economy and the environment of North West England. Indeed, the Ribble Estuary is of international importance for interests as diverse as wintering and migrating wild birds on one hand to the modern aerospace industry on the other. This brochure provides a brief introduction to the estuary of the River Ribble including a historic overview of the people living near the estuary, agriculture and wildlife.

William Francis Thompson (1888–1965) and His Pioneering Studies of the Pacific Halibut, Hippoglossus stenolepis

William Francis Thompson (1888–1965), as a temporary employee of the British Columbia Provincial Fisheries Department, was assigned in 1914 to under-take full-time studies of the Pacific halibut, Hippoglossus stenolepis. The fishery was showing signs of depletion, so Thompson undertook the inquiry into this resource, the first intensive study on the Pacific halibut. Three years later, Thompson, working alone, had provided a basic foundation of knowledge for the subsequent management of this resource. He published seven land-mark papers on this species, and this work marked the first phase of a career in fisheries science that was to last nearly 50 years.

William Francis Thompson (1888–1965) and His Pioneering Studies of the Pacific Halibut, Hippoglossus stenolepis

William Francis Thompson (1888–1965), as a temporary employee of the British Columbia Provincial Fisheries Department, was assigned in 1914 to under-take full-time studies of the Pacific halibut, Hippoglossus stenolepis. The fishery was showing signs of depletion, so Thompson undertook the inquiry into this resource, the first intensive study on the Pacific halibut. Three years later, Thompson, working alone, had provided a basic foundation of knowledge for the subsequent management of this resource. He published seven land-mark papers on this species, and this work marked the first phase of a career in fisheries science that was to last nearly 50 years.

Survey of the lesser silver water beetle Hydrochara caraboides in Cheshire

This is the report on the Survey of the Lesser Silver Water Beetle Hydrochara caraboides in Cheshire 1997 by the English Nature Research Reports. The three surveyed areas were the ponds at Reaseheath, Mickle Trafford and Brookhouse Farm. The report goes through the method of survey and individual results for each location/pond, aspects of the breeding sites considered favourable to Hydrochara caraboides as depth, vegetation, predators and prey species, surrounding land. It comes with suggestions for further work and appendixes. Appendix A contains tabulated lists of plants and invertebrates found in the various ponds, Appendix B shows grid references and a brief description of ponds at Brookhouse Farm, pond diagrams are plotted in Appendix C.

Analysis of the retailer value chain segment in five governorates

This study is the third output of the SDC-funded “Improving Employment and Income through Development of Egyptian Aquaculture” (IEIDEAS), a three-year project being jointly implemented by the WorldFish Center and CARE International in Egypt with support from the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation. The aim of the study is to gather data on the retailer segment of the aquaculture value chain in Egypt, namely on the employment and market conditions of the women fish retailers in the five target governorates. In addition, this study provides a case study in Minya and Fayoum of the current income levels and standards of living of this target group. Finally, the study aims to identify the major problems and obstacles facing these women retailers and suggest some relevant interventions.

The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

Change in Pacific Northwest coastal ecosystems. Proceedings of the Pacific Northwest Coastal Ecosystems Regional Study Workshop, August 73-14, 1996, Troutdale, Oregon

Over the past one hundred and fifty years, the landscape and ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest coastal region, already subject to many variable natural forces, have been profoundly affected by human activities. In virtually every coastal watershed from the Strait of Juan de Fuca to Cape Mendocino, settlement, exploitation and development of resou?-ces have altered natural ecosystems. Vast, complex forests that once covered the region have been largely replaced by tree plantations or converted to non-forest conditions. Narrow coastal valleys, once filled with wetlands and braided streams that tempered storm runoff and provided salmon habitat, were drained, filled, or have otherwise been altered to create land for agriculture and other uses. Tideflats and saltmarshes in both large and small estuaries were filled for industrial, commercial, and other urban uses. Many estuaries, including that of the Columbia River, have been channeled, deepened, and jettied to provide for safe, reliable navigation. The prodigious rainfall in the region, once buffered by dense vegetation and complex river and stream habitat, now surges down sirfiplified stream channels laden with increased burdens of sediment and debris. Although these and many other changes have occurred incrementally over time and in widely separated areas, their sum can now be seen to have significantly affected the natural productivity of the region and, as a consequence, changed the economic structure of its human communities. This activity has taken place in a region already shaped by many interacting and dynamic natural forces. Large-scale ocean circulation patterns, which vary over long time periods, determine the strength and location of currents along the coast, and thus affect conditions in the nearshore ocean and estuaries throughout the region. Periodic seasonal differences in the weather and ocean act on shorter time scales; winters are typically wet with storms from the southwest while summers tend to be dry with winds from the northwest. Some phenomena are episodic, such as El Nifio events, which alter weather, marine habitats, and the distribution and survival of marine organisms. Other oceanic and atmospheric changes operate more slowly; over time scales of decades, centuries, and longer. Episodic geologic events also punctuate the region, such as volcanic eruptions that discharge widespread blankets of ash, frequent minor earthquakes, and major subduction zone earthquakes each 300 to 500 years that release accumulated tectonic strain, dropping stretches of ocean shoreline, inundating estuaries and coastal valleys, and triggering landslides that reshape stream profiles. While these many natural processes have altered, sometimes dramatically, the Pacific Northwest coastal region, these same processes have formed productive marine and coastal ecosystems, and many of the species in these systems have adapted to the variable environmental conditions of the region to ensure their long-term survival.

Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands coral reef ecosystems mapping report

Digital maps of the coral reef ecosystem (<~30m deep) of Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, were created through visual interpretation of remote sensing imagery. Digital Globe’s Quickbird II satellite images were acquired between 2004 and 2006 and georeferenced to within 1.6 m of their true positions. Reef ecosystem features were digitized directly into a GIS at a display scale of 1:4000 using a minimum feature size of 1000 square meters. Benthic features were categorized according to a classification scheme with attributes including zone (location, such as lagoon or forereef, etc.), structure (bottom type, such as sand or patch reef, etc.) and percent hard bottom. Ground validation of habitat features was conducted at 311 sites in 2009. Resulting maps consisted of 1829 features covering 366 square kilometers. Results demonstrate that reef zones occurred in a typical progression of narrow bands from offshore, though forereef, reef flat, shoreline, land, backreef, and lagoon habitats. Lagoon was the largest zone mapped and covered nearly 80% of the atoll, although much of it was too deep to have structures identified from the satellite imagery. Dominant habitat structures by area were pavement and aggregate reef, which covered 29% and 18% of the mapped structures, respectively. Based on the number of features, individual and aggregated patch reefs comprised over 40% of the features mapped. Products include GIS based maps, field videos and pictures, satellite imagery, PDF atlas, and this summary report. Maps and associated data can be used to support science and management activities on Majuro reef ecosystems including inventory, monitoring, conservation, and sustainable development applications.

A baseline assessment of the ecological resources of Jobos Bay, Puerto Rico

This baseline assessment of Jobos Bay and surrounding marine ecosystems consists of a two part series. The first report (Zitello et al., 2008) described the characteristics of the Bay and its watershed, including modeling work related to nutrients and sediment fluxes, based on existing data. The second portion of this assessment, presented in this document, presents the results of new field studies conducted to fill data gaps identified in previous studies, to provide a more complete characterization of Jobos Bay and the surrounding coral reef ecosystems. Specifically, the objective was to establish baseline values for the distribution of habitats, nutrients, contaminants, fi sh, and benthic communities. This baseline assessment is the first step in evaluating the effectiveness in changes in best management practices in the watershed. This baseline assessment is part of the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP), which is a multi-agency effort to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practices used by agricultural producers participating in selected U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) conservation programs. Partners in the CEAP Jobos Bay Special Emphasis Watershed (SEW) included USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS) and the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Government of Puerto Rico. The project originated from an on-going collaboration between USDA and NOAA on the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force. The Jobos Bay watershed was chosen because the predominant land use is agriculture, including agricultural lands adjacent to the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (JBNERR or Reserve), one of NOAA’s 26 National Estuarine Research Reserves (NERR). This report is organized into six chapters that represent a suite of interrelated studies. Chapter 1 provides a short introduction to Jobos Bay, including the land use and hydrology of the watershed. Chapter 2 is focused on benthic mapping and provides the methods and results of newly created benthic maps for Jobos Bay and the surrounding coral reef ecosystem. Chapter 3 presents the results of new surveys of fish, marine debris, and reef communities of the system. Chapter 4 is focused on the distribution of chemical contaminants in sediments within the Bay and corals outside of the Bay. Chapter 5 focuses on quantifying nutrient and pesticide concentrations in the surface waters at the Reserve’s System-Wide Monitoring Program (SWMP) sites. Chapter 6 is a brief summary discussion that highlights key findings of the entire suite of studies.