Parametric and semiparametric estimation of sample selection models: an empirical application to the female labour force in Portugal

This comment corrects the errors in the estimation process that appear in Martins (2001). The first error is in the parametric probit estimation, as the previously presented results do not maximize the log-likelihood function. In the global maximum more variables become significant. As for the semiparametric estimation method, the kernel function used in Martins (2001) can take on both positive and negative values, which implies that the participation probability estimates may be outside the interval [0,1]. We have solved the problem by applying local smoothing in the kernel estimation, as suggested by Klein and Spady (1993).

Bifurcations of homoclinic tangency in two-dimensional area-preserving and reversible maps

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Research Institute for Applied Mathematics and Cybernetics, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, from July to September 2006. Within the project, bifurcations of orbit behavior in area-preserving and reversible maps with a homoclinic tangency were studied. Finitely smooth normal forms for such maps near saddle fixed points were constructed and it was shown that they coincide in the main order with the analytical Birkhoff-Moser normal form. Bifurcations of single-round periodic orbits for two-dimensional symplectic maps close to a map with a quadratic homoclinic tangency were studied. The existence of one- and two-parameter cascades of elliptic periodic orbits was proved.

The EU as a security provider in its neighbourhood: the case of non-proliferation of WMD in the Mediterranean area

As a consequence of the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and the US-led war against Iraq, WMD and their proliferation have become a central element of the EU security agenda. In December 2003, the European Council adopted even a EU Strategy against Proliferation of WMD. The approach adopted in this Strategy can be largely described as a ‘cooperative security provider’ approach and is based on effective multilateralism, the promotion of a stable international and regional environment and the cooperation with key partners. The principal objective of this paper is to examine in how far the EU has actually implemented the ‘cooperative security provider’ approach in the area which the Non-proliferation Strategy identifies as one of its priorities – the Mediterranean. Focusing on the concept of security interdependence, the paper analyses first the various WMD dangers with which the EU is confronted in the Mediterranean area. Afterwards, it examines how the EU has responded to these hazards in the framework of the Barcelona process and, in particular, the new European Neighbourhood Policy. It is argued that despite its relatively powerful rhetoric, the EU has largely failed, for a wide range of reasons, to apply effectively its non-proliferation approach in the Mediterranean area and, thus, to become a successful security provider.

Outbreak of human toxoplasmosis in a rural area. A three year serologic follow-up study

Thirty-six persons living on a farm located in the state of Minas Gerais (Brazil) were studied. Nine of them had the glandular form of toxoplasmosis, between May and August, 1976. These nine cases of toxoplasmosis were confirmed serologically by immunefluorescence-IF-, presenting IgG antibody titres between 1:4096 and 1:32000 and IgM antibody titres between 1:16 and 1:8000. Twelve out of thirty-six persons studied were considered to be "dubious cases". They were defined either by presenting a clinical picture compatible with acquired toxoplasmosis, yet having low serologic titres, or inversely they did not have a clear clinical picture but had serologic evidence of recent Toxoplasma infection. Fifteen out of thirty-six persons studied showed neither serologic nor clinical evidence of recent Toxoplasma infection. The epidemiologic information suggests two possible modes of transmission: a) poorly cooked pork at a barbecue party; b) farm vegetables and soil contaminated with Toxoplasma gondii oocysts (rat-cat cycle). Serologic follow-up nine months later in the human farm population demonstrated still high IgG titres, yet they tended to decline and IgM titres became negative. Three years later most of the IgG titres continued to decline and were almost compatible with the titres obtained in Brazilian population surveys.

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Since conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. Monte Carlo results show that the estimator performs well in comparison to other estimators that have been proposed for estimation of general DLV models.

Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach

We use a threshold seemingly unrelated regressions specification to assess whether the Central and East European countries (CEECs) are synchronized in their business cycles to the Euro-area. This specification is useful in two ways: First, it takes into account the common institutional factors and the similarities across CEECs in their process of economic transition. Second, it captures business cycle asymmetries by allowing for the presence of two distinct regimes for the CEECs. As the CEECs are strongly affected by the Euro-area these regimes may be associated with Euro-area expansions and contractions. We discuss representation, estimation by maximum likelihood and inference. The methodology is illustrated by using monthly industrial production in 8 CEECs. The results show that apart from Lithuania the rest of the CEECs experience “normal” growth when the Euro-area contracts and “high” growth when the Euro-area expands. Given that the CEECs are “catching up” with the Euro-area this result shows that most CEECs seem synchronized to the Euro-area cycle. Keywords: Threshold SURE; asymmetry; business cycles; CEECs. JEL classification: C33; C50; E32.

Restriction site-associated DNA sequencing, genotyping error estimation and de novo assembly optimization for population genetic inference.

Restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) provides researchers with the ability to record genetic polymorphism across thousands of loci for nonmodel organisms, potentially revolutionizing the field of molecular ecology. However, as with other genotyping methods, RADseq is prone to a number of sources of error that may have consequential effects for population genetic inferences, and these have received only limited attention in terms of the estimation and reporting of genotyping error rates. Here we use individual sample replicates, under the expectation of identical genotypes, to quantify genotyping error in the absence of a reference genome. We then use sample replicates to (i) optimize de novo assembly parameters within the program Stacks, by minimizing error and maximizing the retrieval of informative loci; and (ii) quantify error rates for loci, alleles and single-nucleotide polymorphisms. As an empirical example, we use a double-digest RAD data set of a nonmodel plant species, Berberis alpina, collected from high-altitude mountains in Mexico.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis in frequent in equines from an endemic area in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

In an endemic area of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Rio de Janeiro State where a mule had been found infected, a systematic search among equines was performed, resulting in the detection of Leishmania parasites in skin lesions of 30.8% of the animals, which included horses and mules. The eventual role of equines in the epidemiology of the human disease is being investigated.

Ecology of sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in a restricted focus of cutaneous leishmaniasis en Northern Venezuela: I. Description of the study area, catching methods and species composition

A study on the ecology of phlebotomine sandfly fauna in a restricted focus of cutaneous leishmaniasis in northern Venezuela was undertaken in order to investigate the species responsible for the transmission. The study area and catching methods for phlebotomine sandflies are described. A total of 9,061 females and 1,662 males were collected during a year-term study. 12 species of Lutzomya and 1 species of Brumptomya sp. were identified. Absolute and relative abundance and ocurrence for each species were determined. The rel ative occurrence allowed to distinguish the common species, viz. L. panamensis, L. ovallesi, L. gomezi, L. tinidadensis, L. atroclavata, L. cayennensis, L. shannoni and L. olmeca bicolor from the rare species vis., L. punctigeniculata, L. rangeliana, L. evansi and L. dubitans. General comments on the species composition of the sandfly fauna in this locality are made.

Early Tithonian Saturnalidae (Radiolaria) from the Solnhofen area (Southern Franconian Alb, Southern Germany)

In order to complete the study of the very rich early Tithonian (Hybonoticeras hybonotum Zone) radiolarian fauna from the Muhlheim Member of the Mornsheim Formation outcropping in the Solnhofen area, the taxa of the family Saturnalidae are described. Although rather rare, the Saturnalidae of this member contain 14 species, ten of which are new. These species belong to four genera, one of which is new (Moebicircus n. gen.), and two subfamilies (Hexasaturnalinae and Saturnalinae). The taxonomy at generic level of these late Jurassic radiolarians is founded on the basis of the position of the blades along the ring and number and morphology of the spines. Type of spines (simple or forked) has either species level value or none, depending on species. Special attention was given to anomalies, which sometimes are rather frequent, since they can give information of paleobiological and paleoecological orders. Among them frequent cases of open ring and additional spines with Dicerosaturnalis and Siamese twins skeletons with Spongosaturninus and Dicerosaturnalis are to be noted. The authors hope that this new taxonomy will give a better image of the evolution and radiation of the Saturnalidae during the Tithonian.