Comparison and Assessment of Two Emission inventories for the Madrid Region

Emission inventories are databases that aim to describe the polluting activities that occur across a certain geographic domain. According to the spatial scale, the availability of information will vary as well as the applied assumptions, which will strongly influence its quality, accuracy and representativeness. This study compared and contrasted two emission inventories describing the Greater Madrid Region (GMR) under an air quality simulation approach. The chosen inventories were the National Emissions Inventory (NEI) and the Regional Emissions Inventory of the Greater Madrid Region (REI). Both of them were used to feed air quality simulations with the CMAQ modelling system, and the results were compared with observations from the air quality monitoring network in the modelled domain. Through the application of statistical tools, the analysis of emissions at cell level and cell – expansion procedures, it was observed that the National Inventory showed better results for describing on – road traffic activities and agriculture, SNAP07 and SNAP10. The accurate description of activities, the good characterization of the vehicle fleet and the correct use of traffic emission factors were the main causes of such a good correlation. On the other hand, the Regional Inventory showed better descriptions for non – industrial combustion (SNAP02) and industrial activities (SNAP03). It incorporated realistic emission factors, a reasonable fuel mix and it drew upon local information sources to describe these activities, while NEI relied on surrogation and national datasets which leaded to a poorer representation. Off – road transportation (SNAP08) was similarly described by both inventories, while the rest of the SNAP activities showed a marginal contribution to the overall emissions.

Influence of driving style on fuel consumption and Emissions in diesel-powered passenger car

This paper presents the main results of a study on the influence of driving style on fuel consumption and pollutant emissions of diesel passenger car in urban traffic. Driving styles (eco, normal or aggressive) patterns were based on the “eco-driving” criteria. The methodology is based on on-board emission measurements in real urban traffic in the city of Madrid. Five diesel passenger cars, have been tested. Through a statistical analysis, a Dynamic Performance Index was defined for diesel passenger cars. Likewise, the CO, NOX and HC emissions were compared for each driving style for the tested vehicles. Eco-driving reduces by 14% fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, but aggressive driving increase consumption by 40%. Aggressive driving increases NOX emission by more than 40%. CO and HC, show different trends, but being increased in eco-driving style.

Optimization of urban mobility measures to achieve win-win strategies

European cities are essential in the development of Europe as they constitute the living environment of more than 60% of the population in the European Union and are drivers of the European economy – just under 85% of the EU’s gross domestic product is produced in urban areas (EC, 2007a). The car has been one of the main factors of development during the 20th century, but it is at the same time the origin of the key problems cities have to face: traffic increase. This has resulted in chronic congestion with many adverse consequences such as air pollution and noise. This loss of environmental quality is one of the reasons for urban sprawl in European cities during recent decades. But this urban sprawl at the same time worsens the environmental conditions. We must return to the dense city, but clean and competitive, and this implies reducing car use yet provides quality transport alternatives sufficient to recover and maintain the competitiveness of cities (EC, 2007a). Consequently, European cities need to establish an urban transport strategy which helps reduce their environmental problems –mainly emissions and noise – but without decreasing their trip attraction. This aspect is very important because a loss of trip attraction would result in an increase of people moving to more disperse areas, contributing towards worsening the current situation. This thesis is an attempt to contribute solutions to this problem in two ways: 1) The first is to analyze the complementarity and possible synergies of several urban transport measures aimed at improving a modal split to a more sustainable means of transport. This analysis will focus on the three aspects already mentioned: emissions, noise and attractiveness or competitiveness. 2) Once possible synergies and complementarities have been analyzed, the second objective is to propose the best combination of these measures, in terms of level of implementation, to achieve the maximum benefit with respect to the three aspects previously established: emissions, noise and attractiveness or competitiveness. Therefore, within the wide range of measures enhancing sustainable urban transport, three of them have been be selected in this thesis to establish a methodology for achieving these objectives. The analysis will be based on the region of Madrid, which is also the case study selected for this research. Las ciudades europeas son piezas fundamentales para el desarrollo europeo, ya que son el lugar de residencia de más del 60% de la población de la unión europea así como los motores de su economía – casi el 85% del PIB europeo se produce en áreas urbanas (EC, 2007a). El coche ha sido uno de los principales motores de desarrollo de las ciudades durante el siglo XX, pero se ha terminado por convertir a su vez en uno de los principales problemas con los que tiene que lidiar las ciudades: el aumento del tráfico. Esto ha derivado en unos niveles crónicos de congestión, con multitud de efectos adversos, entre los que cabe destacar la contaminación del aire y el ruido. Esta pérdida de calidad ambiental es una de las razones que ha propiciado la dispersión urbana que han experimentado las ciudades europeas en las últimas décadas. Pero esta dispersión urbana a su vez contribuye a empeorar las condiciones ambientales de las ciudades. Debemos retornar a la ciudad densa, pero limpia y competitiva, y esto implica reducir el uso del coche, pero proporcionando alternativas de transporte que permitan recuperar y mantener la competitividad de las ciudades (EC, 2007a). Por lo tanto, las ciudades europeas necesitan encontrar una estrategia de transporte urbano que ayude a reducir sus problemas medio ambientales – principalmente ruido y emisiones – pero sin hacerlas perder atractividad o competitividad. Este aspecto tiene gran importancia porque una pérdida de la misma se traduciría en un aumento de dispersión de la población hacia áreas periféricas, contribuyendo a empeorar la situación actual. Esta tesis contribuye a solucionar este problema de dos maneras: 1) La primera, analizando la complementariedad y posibles sinergias de diferentes medidas de transporte urbano orientadas a promover un reparto modal hacia modos más sostenibles. Este análisis se centrará en los tres aspectos anteriormente citados: emisiones, ruido y atractividad o competitividad. 2) Una vez las posibles sinergias y complementariedades se han analizado, el segundo objetivo es proponer la mejor combinación de estas medidas – en términos de grado de aplicación - para lograr el máximo beneficio en lo que respecta a los tres objetivos previamente establecidos. Para ello, en esta tesis se han seleccionado una serie de medidas que permitan establecer una metodología para alcanzar estos objetivos previamente definidos. El análisis se centra en la ciudad de Madrid y su área metropolitana, la cual se ha escogido como caso de estudio para realizar esta investigación.

Comparasion of road traffic emission models in Madrid (Spain)

Many cities in Europe have difficulties to meet the air quality standards set by the European legislation, most particularly the annual mean Limit Value for NO2. Road transport is often the main source of air pollution in urban areas and therefore, there is an increasing need to estimate current and future traffic emissions as accurately as possible. As a consequence, a number of specific emission models and emission factors databases have been developed recently. They present important methodological differences and may result in largely diverging emission figures and thus may lead to alternative policy recommendations. This study compares two approaches to estimate road traffic emissions in Madrid (Spain): the COmputer Programme to calculate Emissions from Road Transport (COPERT4 v.8.1) and the Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA v.3.1), representative of the ‘average-speed’ and ‘traffic situation’ model types respectively. The input information (e.g. fleet composition, vehicle kilometres travelled, traffic intensity, road type, etc.) was provided by the traffic model developed by the Madrid City Council along with observations from field campaigns. Hourly emissions were computed for nearly 15 000 road segments distributed in 9 management areas covering the Madrid city and surroundings. Total annual NOX emissions predicted by HBEFA were a 21% higher than those of COPERT. The discrepancies for NO2 were lower (13%) since resulting average NO2/NOX ratios are lower for HBEFA. The larger differences are related to diesel vehicle emissions under “stop & go” traffic conditions, very common in distributor/secondary roads of the Madrid metropolitan area. In order to understand the representativeness of these results, the resulting emissions were integrated in an urban scale inventory used to drive mesoscale air quality simulations with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system (1 km2 resolution). Modelled NO2 concentrations were compared with observations through a series of statistics. Although there are no remarkable differences between both model runs, the results suggest that HBEFA may overestimate traffic emissions. However, the results are strongly influenced by methodological issues and limitations of the traffic model. This study was useful to provide a first alternative estimate to the official emission inventory in Madrid and to identify the main features of the traffic model that should be improved to support the application of an emission system based on “real world” emission factors.

Changes in the external costs of freight surface transport in Spain

This paper studies the external costs of surface freight transport in Spain and finds that a reduction occurred over the past 15 years. The analysis yields two conclusions: trucks have experienced a reduction in external costs, and rail has lower externalities. The external costs of road freight transport decrease between 1993 and 2007 (44%). The external costs of rail freight increase by 12%. During this period, the external costs of road freight related to climate increase by 16%, oppositely than those from air pollution and accidents (51 and 44%). The external costs of rail related to pollutant emissions and climate increase by 4% and 43%. Oppositely, the external costs related to accidents decrease by 27%. Road freight generates eight times the external costs of rail, 2.35 Euro cents per tonne kilometre in 2005 (5.6% accidents, 74.7% air pollution and 19.7% climate) vs. 0.28 (13.4% accidents, 53.9% air pollution and 32.7% climate).

Assessing urban mobility through participatory scenario building and combined utility-regret assessment

La planificación de la movilidad sostenible urbana es una tarea compleja que implica un alto grado de incertidumbre debido al horizonte de planificación a largo plazo, la amplia gama de paquetes de políticas posibles, la necesidad de una aplicación efectiva y eficiente, la gran escala geográfica, la necesidad de considerar objetivos económicos, sociales y ambientales, y la respuesta del viajero a los diferentes cursos de acción y su aceptabilidad política (Shiftan et al., 2003). Además, con las tendencias inevitables en motorización y urbanización, la demanda de terrenos y recursos de movilidad en las ciudades está aumentando dramáticamente. Como consecuencia de ello, los problemas de congestión de tráfico, deterioro ambiental, contaminación del aire, consumo de energía, desigualdades en la comunidad, etc. se hacen más y más críticos para la sociedad. Esta situación no es estable a largo plazo. Para enfrentarse a estos desafíos y conseguir un desarrollo sostenible, es necesario considerar una estrategia de planificación urbana a largo plazo, que aborde las necesarias implicaciones potencialmente importantes. Esta tesis contribuye a las herramientas de evaluación a largo plazo de la movilidad urbana estableciendo una metodología innovadora para el análisis y optimización de dos tipos de medidas de gestión de la demanda del transporte (TDM). La metodología nueva realizado se basa en la flexibilización de la toma de decisiones basadas en utilidad, integrando diversos mecanismos de decisión contrariedad‐anticipada y combinados utilidad‐contrariedad en un marco integral de planificación del transporte. La metodología propuesta incluye dos aspectos principales: 1) La construcción de escenarios con una o varias medidas TDM usando el método de encuesta que incorpora la teoría “regret”. La construcción de escenarios para este trabajo se hace para considerar específicamente la implementación de cada medida TDM en el marco temporal y marco espacial. Al final, se construyen 13 escenarios TDM en términos del más deseable, el más posible y el de menor grado de “regret” como resultado de una encuesta en dos rondas a expertos en el tema. 2) A continuación se procede al desarrollo de un marco de evaluación estratégica, basado en un Análisis Multicriterio de Toma de Decisiones (Multicriteria Decision Analysis, MCDA) y en un modelo “regret”. Este marco de evaluación se utiliza para comparar la contribución de los distintos escenarios TDM a la movilidad sostenible y para determinar el mejor escenario utilizando no sólo el valor objetivo de utilidad objetivo obtenido en el análisis orientado a utilidad MCDA, sino también el valor de “regret” que se calcula por medio del modelo “regret” MCDA. La función objetivo del MCDA se integra en un modelo de interacción de uso del suelo y transporte que se usa para optimizar y evaluar los impactos a largo plazo de los escenarios TDM previamente construidos. Un modelo de “regret”, llamado “referencedependent regret model (RDRM)” (modelo de contrariedad dependiente de referencias), se ha adaptado para analizar la contribución de cada escenario TDM desde un punto de vista subjetivo. La validación de la metodología se realiza mediante su aplicación a un caso de estudio en la provincia de Madrid. La metodología propuesta define pues un procedimiento técnico detallado para la evaluación de los impactos estratégicos de la aplicación de medidas de gestión de la demanda en el transporte, que se considera que constituye una herramienta de planificación útil, transparente y flexible, tanto para los planificadores como para los responsables de la gestión del transporte. Planning sustainable urban mobility is a complex task involving a high degree of uncertainty due to the long‐term planning horizon, the wide spectrum of potential policy packages, the need for effective and efficient implementation, the large geographical scale, the necessity to consider economic, social, and environmental goals, and the traveller’s response to the various action courses and their political acceptability (Shiftan et al., 2003). Moreover, with the inevitable trends on motorisation and urbanisation, the demand for land and mobility in cities is growing dramatically. Consequently, the problems of traffic congestion, environmental deterioration, air pollution, energy consumption, and community inequity etc., are becoming more and more critical for the society (EU, 2011). Certainly, this course is not sustainable in the long term. To address this challenge and achieve sustainable development, a long‐term perspective strategic urban plan, with its potentially important implications, should be established. This thesis contributes on assessing long‐term urban mobility by establishing an innovative methodology for optimizing and evaluating two types of transport demand management measures (TDM). The new methodology aims at relaxing the utility‐based decision‐making assumption by embedding anticipated‐regret and combined utilityregret decision mechanisms in an integrated transport planning framework. The proposed methodology includes two major aspects: 1) Construction of policy scenarios within a single measure or combined TDM policy‐packages using the survey method incorporating the regret theory. The purpose of building the TDM scenarios in this work is to address the specific implementation in terms of time frame and geographic scale for each TDM measure. Finally, 13 TDM scenarios are built in terms of the most desirable, the most expected and the least regret choice by means of the two‐round Delphi based survey. 2) Development of the combined utility‐regret analysis framework based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This assessment framework is used to compare the contribution of the TDM scenario towards sustainable mobility and to determine the best scenario considering not only the objective utility value obtained from the utilitybased MCDA, but also a regret value that is calculated via a regret‐based MCDA. The objective function of the utility‐based MCDA is integrated in a land use and transport interaction model and is used for optimizing and assessing the long term impacts of the constructed TDM scenarios. A regret based model, called referente dependent regret model (RDRM) is adapted to analyse the contribution of each TDM scenario in terms of a subjective point of view. The suggested methodology is implemented and validated in the case of Madrid. It defines a comprehensive technical procedure for assessing strategic effects of transport demand management measures, which can be useful, transparent and flexible planning tool both for planners and decision‐makers.

How lowering speed limits in an urban highway affects traffics performance and emissions: the case of Madrid M-30 ring-road

The city of Madrid keeps not meeting the GHG and air pollutant limits set by the European legislation. A broad range of strategies have being taken into account to reduce both types of emissions; however traffic management meas ures are usually consigned to the sidelines. In 2004, Madrid City Council launched a plan to re-design its inner ring-road supported by a socioeconomic study that evaluated the environmental and operational benefits of the project. For safety reasons the planned speed limit for the tunnel section was finally reduced from 90km/h to 70km/h. Using a Macroscopic Traffic Model and the European Air Pollutant and Emissions Inventory Guidebook (EMEP/EEA), this paper examines the environmental and traffic performance consequences of this decision. Results support the thesis that reduced speed limits leads to GHG and air pollution reductions in the area affected by the measure without substantially altering traffic performance. The implementation of the new speed limit policy brings about a 15% and 16% reduction in both CO2 and NOx emissions respectively. Emissions’ reduction during off-peak hours is larger than during peak hours.

Urban trees and atmospheric pollutants in big cities: Effects in Madrid

Una investigación sobre la mejora de la contaminación del aire (CA) por medio de arbolado urbano se realizó en Madrid, una ciudad con casi 4 M de habitantes, 2,8 M de vehículos y casi 3 M de árboles de mantenimiento público. La mayoría de los árboles estaban en dos bosques periurbanos. Los 650.000 restantes era pies de alineación y parques. Los taxones estudiados fueron Platanus orientalis (97.205 árboles), Ulmus sp. (70.557), Pinus pinea (49.038), Aesculus hippocastanum (22.266), Cedrus sp. (13.678) y Quercus ilex (1.650), de calles y parques. Muestras foliares se analizaron en diferentes épocas del año, así como datos de contaminación por PM10 de 28 estaciones de medición de la contaminación durante 30 años, y también la intensidad del tráfico (IMD) en 2.660 calles. La acumulación de metales pesados (MP) sobre hojas y dentro de estas se estimó en relación con la CA y del suelo y la IMD del tráfico. La concentración media de Ba, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb y Zn en suelo (materia seca) alcanzó: 489,5, 0,7, 49,4, 60,9, 460,9, 12,8, 155,9 y 190,3 mg kg-1 respectivamente. Los árboles urbanos, particularmente coníferas (debido a la mayor CA en invierno) contribuyen significativamente a mejorar la CA sobre todo en calles con alta IMD. La capacidad de las seis sp. para capturar partículas de polvo en su superficies foliares está relacionada con la IMD del tráfico y se estimó en 16,8 kg/año de MP tóxicos. Pb y Zn resultaron ser buenos marcadores antrópicos en la ciudad en relación con el tráfico, que fue la principal fuente de contaminación en los árboles y suelos de Madrid. Las especies de árboles variaron en función de su capacidad para capturar partículas (dependiendo de las propiedades de sus superficies foliares) y acumular los MP absorbidos de los suelos. Las concentraciones foliares de Pb y Zn estuvieron por encima de los límites establecidos en diferentes sitios de la ciudad. La microlocalización de Zn mediante microscópico mostró la translocación al xilema y floema. Se detectaron puntos de contaminación puntual de Cu and Cr en antiguos polígonos industriales y la distribución espacial de los MP en los suelos de Madrid mostró que en incluso en zonas interiores del El Retiro había ciertos niveles elevados de [Pb] en suelo, tal vez por el emplazamiento la Real Fábrica de Porcelana en la misma zona hace 200 años. Distintas áreas del centro de la ciudad también alcanzaron niveles altos de [Pb] en suelo. Según los resultados, el empleo de una combinación de Pinus pinea con un estrato intermedio de Ulmus sp. y Cedrus sp. puede ser la mejor recomendación como filtro verde eficiente. El efecto del ozono (O3) sobre el arbolado en Madrid fue también objeto de este estudio. A pesar de la reducción de precursores aplicada en muchos países industrializados, O3 sigue siendo la principal causa de CA en el hemisferio norte, con el aumento de [O3] de fondo. Las mayores [O3] se alcanzaron en regiones mediterráneas, donde el efecto sobre la vegetación natural es compensado por el xeromorfismo y la baja conductancia estomática en respuesta los episodios de sequía estival característicos de este clima. Durante una campaña de monitoreo, se identificaron daños abióticos en hojas de encina parecidos a los de O3 que estaban plantadas en una franja de césped con riego del centro de Madrid. Dada la poca evidencia disponible de los síntomas de O3 en frondosas perennifolias, se hizo un estudio que trató de 1) confirman el diagnóstico de daño de O3, 2) investigar el grado de los síntomas en encinas y 3) analizar los factores ambientales que contribuyeron a los daños por O3, en particular en lo relacionado con el riego. Se analizaron los marcadores macro y micromorfológicos de estrés por O3, utilizando las mencionadas encinas a modo de parcela experimental. Los síntomas consistieron en punteado intercostal del haz, que aumentó con la edad. Además de un punteado subyacente, donde las células superiores del mesófilo mostraron reacciones características de daños por O3. Las células próximas a las zonas dañadas, presentaron marcadores adicionales de estrés oxidativo. Estos marcadores morfológicos y micromorfológicos de estrés por O3 fueron similares a otras frondosas caducifolias con daños por O3. Sin embargo, en nuestro caso el punteado fue evidente con AOT40 de 21 ppm•h, asociada a riego. Análisis posteriores mostraron que los árboles con riego aumentaron su conductancia estomática, con aumento de senescencia, manteniéndose sin cambios sus características xeromórficas foliares. Estos hallazgos ponen de relieve el papel primordial de la disponibilidad de agua frente a las características xeromórficas a la hora de manifestarse los síntomas en las células por daños de O3 en encina. ABSTRACT Research about air pollution mitigation by urban trees was conducted in Madrid (Spain), a southern European city with almost 4 M inhabitants, 2.8 M daily vehicles and 3 M trees under public maintenance. Most trees were located in two urban forests, while 650'000 trees along urban streets and in parks. The urban taxa included Platanus orientalis (97'205 trees), Ulmus sp. (70’557), Pinus pinea (49'038), Aesculus hippocastanum (22’266), Cedrus sp. (13'678 and Quercus ilex (1'650) along streets and parks. Leave samples were analysed sequentially in different seasons, PM10 data from 28 air monitoring stations during 30 years and traffic density estimated from 2’660 streets. Heavy metal (HM) accumulation on the leaf surface and within leaves was estimated per tree related to air and soil pollution, and traffic intensity. Mean concentration of Ba, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn in topsoil samples (dry mass) amounted in Madrid: 489.5, 0.7, 49.4, 60.9, 460.9, 12.8, 155.9 and 190.3 mg kg-1 respectively. Urban trees, particularly conifers (due to higher pollution in winter) contributed significantly to alleviate air pollution especially near to high ADT roads. The capacity of the six urban street trees species to capture air-born dust on the foliage surface as related to traffic intensity was estimated to 16.8 kg of noxious metals from exhausts per year. Pb and Zn pointed to be tracers of anthropic activity in the city with vehicle traffic as the main source of diffuse pollution on trees and soils. Tree species differed by their capacity to capture air-borne dust (by different leaf surface properties) and to allocate HM from soils. Pb and Zn concentrations in the foliage were above limits in different urban sites and microscopic Zn revelation showed translocation in xylem and phloem tissue. Punctual contamination in soils by Cu and Cr was identified in former industrial areas and spatial trace element mapping showed for central Retiro Park certain high values of [Pb] in soils even related to a Royal pottery 200 years ago. Different areas in the city centre also reached high levels [Pb] in soils. According to the results, a combination of Pinus pinea with understorey Ulmus sp. and Cedrus sp. layers can be recommended for the best air filter efficiency. The effects of ozone (O3) on trees in different areas of Madrid were also part of this study. Despite abatement programs of precursors implemented in many industrialized countries, ozone remained the main air pollutant throughout the northern hemisphere with background [O3] increasing. Some of the highest ozone concentrations were measured in regions with a Mediterranean climate but the effect on the natural vegetation is alleviated by low stomatal uptake and frequent leaf xeromorphy in response to summer drought episodes characteristic of this climate. During a bioindication survey, abiotic O3-like injury was identified in foliage. Trees were growing on an irrigated lawn strip in the centre of Madrid. Given the little structural evidence available for O3 symptoms in broadleaved evergreen species, a study was undertaken in 2007 with the following objectives 1) confirm the diagnosis, 2) investigate the extent of symptoms in holm oaks growing in Madrid and 3) analyse the environmental factors contributing to O3 injury, particularly, the site water supply. Therefore, macro- and micromorphological markers of O3 stress were analysed, using the aforementioned lawn strip as an intensive study site. Symptoms consisted of adaxial and intercostal stippling increasing with leaf age. Underlying stippling, cells in the upper mesophyll showed HR-like reactions typical of ozone stress. The surrounding cells showed further oxidative stress markers. These morphological and micromorphological markers of ozone stress were similar to those recorded in deciduous broadleaved species. However, stippling became obvious already at an AOT40 of 21 ppm•h and was primarily found at irrigated sites. Subsequent analyses showed that irrigated trees had their stomatal conductance increased and leaf life-span reduced whereas their leaf xeromorphy remained unchanged. These findings suggest a central role of water availability versus leaf xeromorphy for ozone symptom expression by cell injury in holm oak.

The environmental and economic effects of innovative measures in urban parcels delivery

The main scope of this research is to identify and evaluate solutions to redesign the parcels delivery logistic process to achieve higher level of quality, lower operational costs, energy consumptions and air pollution. The study is starting from the analysis of the delivery process managed by a leader company operating in Rome. Main delivery flows, personnel and fleet management costs, quality performances and environmental impacts are investigated. The results of this analysis are benchmarked with other European situations. On the basis of the feedback of this analysis, a set of operational measures, potentially able tackle the objectives, are identified and assessed by means of a simulative approach. The assessment is based on environmental and economic indicators allowing the comparison between new and reference scenarios from the viewpoints of the key players: operator, customer and Society. Moreover, the operational measures are combined into alternative packages by looking for the sets capable to maximize the benefits for the key players. The methodology, tested on Rome case study, is general and flexible enough to be extended to parcels delivery problem in different urban contexts, as well as to similar urban distribution problems (e.g. press, food, security, school)

Planning and Management of Mobility in Natural Protected Areas

The paper describes some relevant results of an on-going research aiming to elaborate a methodology to help the mobility management in natural parks, compatible with their protection missions: it has been developed a procedure to reproduce the mobility-environment relationships in various operational conditions. The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The work is articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (air pollution and noise only); 6) identification of mitigation measures to be potentially applied. The whole methodology has been tested and validated on Italian case studies: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model the flows have been distributed and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions was calculated, the criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios, including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between projects and reference scenario allowed the quantification of effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.

Planning and management of mobility in natural protected areas

The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The preliminary work was articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (limited to air pollution and noise); 6) identification of mitigation measures to the potentially applied. The whole methodology has been firstly tested on the case study of the National Park of ?Gran Sasso and Monti della Laga? and further validated on the National Park of ?Gargano?, both located Italy: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been synthetically represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model it has been determined the distribution of flows and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions. On this basis the environmental criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between the projects and the reference scenario allowed the quantification of the effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.

A methodology to estimate uncertainty for emission projections through sensitivity analysis

Air pollution abatement policies must be based on quantitative information on current and future emissions of pollutants. As emission projections uncertainties are inevitable and traditional statistical treatments of uncertainty are highly time/resources consuming, a simplified methodology for nonstatistical uncertainty estimation based on sensitivity analysis is presented in this work. The methodology was applied to the “with measures” scenario for Spain, concretely over the 12 highest emitting sectors regarding greenhouse gas and air pollutants emissions. Examples of methodology application for two important sectors (power plants, and agriculture and livestock) are shown and explained in depth. Uncertainty bands were obtained up to 2020 by modifying the driving factors of the 12 selected sectors and the methodology was tested against a recomputed emission trend in a low economic-growth perspective and official figures for 2010, showing a very good performance. Implications: A solid understanding and quantification of uncertainties related to atmospheric emission inventories and projections provide useful information for policy negotiations. However, as many of those uncertainties are irreducible, there is an interest on how they could be managed in order to derive robust policy conclusions. Taking this into account, a method developed to use sensitivity analysis as a source of information to derive nonstatistical uncertainty bands for emission projections is presented and applied to Spain. This method simplifies uncertainty assessment and allows other countries to take advantage of their sensitivity analyses.

Synergies and trade-offs between renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation - a cross-national multifactor analysis

Peer reviewed

Case study of the effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze on agriculture: An opportunity to enhance crop yields in China through emission controls?

The effect of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze from air pollution on the yields of rice and winter wheat grown in China is assessed. The assessment is based on estimates of aerosol optical depths over China, the effect of these optical depths on the solar irradiance reaching the earth’s surface, and the response of rice and winter wheat grown in Nanjing to the change in solar irradiance. Two sets of aerosol optical depths are presented: one based on a coupled, regional climate/air quality model simulation and the other inferred from solar radiation measurements made over a 12-year period at meteorological stations in China. The model-estimated optical depths are significantly smaller than those derived from observations, perhaps because of errors in one or both sets of optical depths or because the data from the meteorological stations has been affected by local pollution. Radiative transfer calculations using the smaller, model-estimated aerosol optical depths indicate that the so-called “direct effect” of regional haze results in an ≈5–30% reduction in the solar irradiance reaching some of China’s most productive agricultural regions. Crop-response model simulations suggest an ≈1:1 relationship between a percentage increase (decrease) in total surface solar irradiance and a percentage increase (decrease) in the yields of rice and wheat. Collectively, these calculations suggest that regional haze in China is currently depressing optimal yields of ≈70% of the crops grown in China by at least 5–30%. Reducing the severity of regional haze in China through air pollution control could potentially result in a significant increase in crop yields and help the nation meet its growing food demands in the coming decades.

Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.