A dynamic approach to forecast rental growth

Numerous econometric models have been proposed for forecasting property market performance, but limited success has been achieved in finding a reliable and consistent model to predict property market movements over a five to ten year timeframe. This research focuses on office rental growth forecasts and overviews many of the office rent models that have evolved over the past 20 years. A model by DiPasquale and Wheaton is selected for testing in the Brisbane, Australia office market. The adaptation of this study did not provide explanatory variables that could assist in developing a reliable, predictive model of office rental growth. In light of this result, the paper suggests a system dynamics framework that includes an econometric model based on historical data as well as user input guidance for the primary variables. The rent forecast outputs would be assessed having regard to market expectations and probability profiling undertaken for use in simulation exercises. The paper concludes with ideas for ongoing research.

(Anti)Queer : introduction

The ‘anti- of ‘(Anti)Queer’ is a queer anti. In particle physics, a domain of science which was for a long time peddled as ultimately knowable, rational and objective, the postmodern turn has made everything queer (or chaotic, as the scientific version of this turn is perhaps more commonly named). This is a world where not only do two wrongs not make a right, but a negative and positive do not calmly cancel each other out to leave nothing, as mathematics might suggest. When matter meets with anti-matter, the resulting explosion can produce not only energy - heat and light? - but new matter. We live in a world whose very basics are no longer the electron and the positron, but an ever proliferating number of chaotic, unpredictable - queer? - subatomic particles. Some are ‘charmed’, others merely ‘strange’ . Weird science indeed. The ‘Anti-’ of ‘Anti-queer’ does not place itself neatly into binaries. This is not a refutation of all that queer has been or will be. It is explicitly a confrontation, a challenge, an attempt to take seriously not only the claims made for queer but the potent contradictions and silences which stand proudly when any attempt is made to write a history of the term. Specifically, ‘Anti-Queer’ is not Beyond Queer, the title of Bruce Bawer’s 1996 book which calmly and self-confidently explains the failings of queer, extols a return to a liberal political theory of cultural change and places its own marker on queer as a movement whose purpose has been served. We are not Beyond Queer. And if we are Anti-Queer, it is only to challenge those working in the arena to acknowledge and work with some of the facts of the movement’s history whose productivity has been erased with a gesture which has, proved, bizarrely, to be reductive and homogenising.

Spatial population genetic structure reveals strong natal site fidelity in Echinocladius martini (Diptera: Chironomidae) in northeast Queensland, Australia

1. A diverse array of patterns has been reported regarding the spatial extent of population genetic structure and effective dispersal in freshwater macroinvertebrates. In river systems, the movements of many taxa can be restricted to varying degrees by the natural stream channel hierarchy. 2. In this study, we sampled populations of the non-biting freshwater midge Echinocladius martini in the Paluma bioregion of tropical northeast Queensland to investigate fine scale patterns of within- and among-stream dispersal and gene flow within a purported historical refuge. We amplified a 639 bp fragment of mitochondrial COI and analysed genetic structure using pairwise ΦST, hierarchical AMOVA, Mantel tests and a parsimony network. Genetic variation was partitioned among stream sections using Streamtree to investigate the effect of potential instream dispersal barriers. 3. The data revealed strong natal site fidelity and significant differentiation among neighbouring, geographically proximate streams. We found evidence for only episodic adult flight among sites on separate stream reaches. Overall, however, our data suggested that both larval and adult dispersal was largely limited to within a stream channel. 4. This may arise from a combination of the high density of riparian vegetation physically restricting dispersal and from the joint effects of habitat stability and large population sizes. Together these may mitigate the requirement for movement among streams to avoid inbreeding and local extinction due to habitat change and may thus enable persistence of upstream populations in the absence of regular compensatory upstream flight. Taken together, these data suggest that dispersal of E. martini is highly restricted, to the scale of only a few kilometres, and hence occurs predominantly within the natal stream.

Application of an optimisation algorithm to configure an internal fixation device

Fractures of long bones are sometimes treated using various types of fracture fixation devices including internal plate fixators. These are specialised plates which are used to bridge the fracture gap(s) whilst anatomically aligning the bone fragments. The plate is secured in position by screws. The aim of such a device is to support and promote the natural healing of the bone. When using an internal fixation device, it is necessary for the clinician to decide upon many parameters, for example, the type of plate and where to position it; how many and where to position the screws. While there have been a number of experimental and computational studies conducted regarding the configuration of screws in the literature, there is still inadequate information available concerning the influence of screw configuration on fracture healing. Because screw configuration influences the amount of flexibility at the area of fracture, it has a direct influence on the fracture healing process. Therefore, it is important that the chosen screw configuration does not inhibit the healing process. In addition to the impact on the fracture healing process, screw configuration plays an important role in the distribution of stresses in the plate due to the applied loads. A plate that experiences high stresses is prone to early failure. Hence, the screw configuration used should not encourage the occurrence of high stresses. This project develops a computational program in Fortran programming language to perform mathematical optimisation to determine the screw configuration of an internal fixation device within constraints of interfragmentary movement by minimising the corresponding stress in the plate. Thus, the optimal solution suggests the positioning and number of screws which satisfies the predefined constraints of interfragmentary movements. For a set of screw configurations the interfragmentary displacement and the stress occurring in the plate were calculated by the Finite Element Method. The screw configurations were iteratively changed and each time the corresponding interfragmentary displacements were compared with predefined constraints. Additionally, the corresponding stress was compared with the previously calculated stress value to determine if there was a reduction. These processes were continued until an optimal solution was achieved. The optimisation program has been shown to successfully predict the optimal screw configuration in two cases. The first case was a simplified bone construct whereby the screw configuration solution was comparable with those recommended in biomechanical literature. The second case was a femoral construct, of which the resultant screw configuration was shown to be similar to those used in clinical cases. The optimisation method and programming developed in this study has shown that it has potential to be used for further investigations with the improvement of optimisation criteria and the efficiency of the program.

Identifying constraints on children with movement difficulties : implications for pedagogues and clinicians

A constraints- based framework for understanding processes of movement coordination and control is predicated on a range of theoretical ideas including the work of Bernstein (1967), Gibson (1979), Newell (1986) and Kugler, Kelso & Turvey (1982). Contrary to a normative perspective that focuses on the production of idealized movement patterns to be acquired by children during development and learning (see Alain & Brisson, 1986), this approach formulates the emergence of movement co- ordination as a function of the constraints imposed upon each individual. In this framework, cognitive, perceptual and movement difficulties and disorders are considered to be constraints on the perceptual- motor system, and children’s movements are viewed as emergent functional adaptations to these constraints (Davids et al., 2008; Rosengren, Savelsbergh & van der Kamp, 2003). From this perspective, variability of movement behaviour is not viewed as noise or error to be eradicated during development, but rather, as essentially functional in facilitating the child to satisfy the unique constraints which impinge on his/her developing perceptual- motor and cognitive systems in everyday life (Davids et al., 2008). Recently, it has been reported that functional neurobiological variability is predicated on system degeneracy, an inherent feature of neurobiological systems which facilitates the achievement of task performance goals in a variety of different ways (Glazier & Davids, 2009). Degeneracy refers to the capacity of structurally different components of complex movement systems to achieve different performance outcomes in varying contexts (Tononi et al., 1999; Edelman & Gally, 2001). System degeneracy allows individuals with and without movement disorders to achieve their movement goals by harnessing movement variability during performance. Based on this idea, perceptual- motor disorders can be simply viewed as unique structural and functional system constraints which individuals have to satisfy in interactions with their environments. The aim of this chapter is to elucidate how the interaction of structural and functional organismic, and environmental constraints can be harnessed in a nonlinear pedagogy by individuals with movement disorders.

The 2008 Tibet riots : perspectives, divided group protests and divergent media narratives

Awareness of the power of the mass media to communicate images of protest to global audiences and, in so doing, to capture space in global media discourses is a central feature of the transnational protest movement. A number of protest movements have formed around opposition to concepts and practices that operate beyond national borders, such as neoliberal globalization or threats to the environment. However, transnational protests also involve more geographically discreet issues such as claims to national independence or greater religious or political freedom by groups within specific national contexts. Appealing to the international community for support is a familiar strategy for communities who feel that they are being discriminated against or ignored by a national government.

Facial expression recognition using facial movement features

Facial expression is an important channel for human communication and can be applied in many real applications. One critical step for facial expression recognition (FER) is to accurately extract emotional features. Current approaches on FER in static images have not fully considered and utilized the features of facial element and muscle movements, which represent static and dynamic, as well as geometric and appearance characteristics of facial expressions. This paper proposes an approach to solve this limitation using ‘salient’ distance features, which are obtained by extracting patch-based 3D Gabor features, selecting the ‘salient’ patches, and performing patch matching operations. The experimental results demonstrate high correct recognition rate (CRR), significant performance improvements due to the consideration of facial element and muscle movements, promising results under face registration errors, and fast processing time. The comparison with the state-of-the-art performance confirms that the proposed approach achieves the highest CRR on the JAFFE database and is among the top performers on the Cohn-Kanade (CK) database.

Car following model improvement for traffic safety metrics reproduction

Car Following models have a critical role in all microscopic traffic simulation models. Current microscopic simulation models are unable to mimic the unsafe behaviour of drivers as most are based on presumptions about the safe behaviour of drivers. Gipps model is a widely used car following model embedded in different micro-simulation models. This paper examines the Gipps car following model to investigate ways of improving the model for safety studies application. The paper puts forward some suggestions to modify the Gipps model to improve its capabilities to simulate unsafe vehicle movements (vehicles with safety indicators below critical thresholds). The result of the paper is one step forward to facilitate assessing and predicting safety at motorways using microscopic simulation. NGSIM as a rich source of vehicle trajectory data for a motorway is used to extract its relatively risky events. Short following headways and Time To Collision are used to assess critical safety event within traffic flow. The result shows that the modified proposed car following to a certain extent predicts the unsafe trajectories with smaller error values than the generic Gipps model.

Geometry vs appearance for discriminating between posed and spontaneous emotions

Spontaneous facial expressions differ from posed ones in appearance, timing and accompanying head movements. Still images cannot provide timing or head movement information directly. However, indirectly the distances between key points on a face extracted from a still image using active shape models can capture some movement and pose changes. This information is superposed on information about non-rigid facial movement that is also part of the expression. Does geometric information improve the discrimination between spontaneous and posed facial expressions arising from discrete emotions? We investigate the performance of a machine vision system for discrimination between posed and spontaneous versions of six basic emotions that uses SIFT appearance based features and FAP geometric features. Experimental results on the NVIE database demonstrate that fusion of geometric information leads only to marginal improvement over appearance features. Using fusion features, surprise is the easiest emotion (83.4% accuracy) to be distinguished, while disgust is the most difficult (76.1%). Our results find different important facial regions between discriminating posed versus spontaneous version of one emotion and classifying the same emotion versus other emotions. The distribution of the selected SIFT features shows that mouth is more important for sadness, while nose is more important for surprise, however, both the nose and mouth are important for disgust, fear, and happiness. Eyebrows, eyes, nose and mouth are important for anger.

Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Can audio-visual speech recognition outperform acoustically enhanced speech recognition in automotive environment?

The use of visual features in the form of lip movements to improve the performance of acoustic speech recognition has been shown to work well, particularly in noisy acoustic conditions. However, whether this technique can outperform speech recognition incorporating well-known acoustic enhancement techniques, such as spectral subtraction, or multi-channel beamforming is not known. This is an important question to be answered especially in an automotive environment, for the design of an efficient human-vehicle computer interface. We perform a variety of speech recognition experiments on a challenging automotive speech dataset and results show that synchronous HMM-based audio-visual fusion can outperform traditional single as well as multi-channel acoustic speech enhancement techniques. We also show that further improvement in recognition performance can be obtained by fusing speech-enhanced audio with the visual modality, demonstrating the complementary nature of the two robust speech recognition approaches.

DEM test, visagraph eye movement recordings, and reading ability in children

Purpose. To determine how Developmental Eye Movement (DEM) test results relate to reading eye movement patterns recorded with the Visagraph in visually normal children, and whether DEM results and recorded eye movement patterns relate to standardized reading achievement scores. Methods. Fifty-nine school-age children (age = 9.7 ± 0.6 years) completed the DEM test and had eye movements recorded with the Visagraph III test while reading for comprehension. Monocular visual acuity in each eye and random dot stereoacuity were measured and standardized scores on independently administered reading comprehension tests [reading progress test (RPT)] were obtained. Results. Children with slower DEM horizontal and vertical adjusted times tended to have slower reading rates with the Visagraph (r = -0.547 and -0.414 respectively). Although a significant correlation was also found between the DEM ratio and Visagraph reading rate (r = -0.368), the strength of the relationship was less than that between DEM horizontal adjusted time and reading rate. DEM outcome scores were not significantly associated with RPT scores. When the relative contribution of reading ability (RPT) and DEM scores was accounted for in multivariate analysis, DEM outcomes were not significantly associated with Visagraph reading rate. RPT scores were associated with Visagraph outcomes of duration of fixations (r = -0.403) and calculated reading rate (r = 0.366) but not with DEM outcomes. Conclusions.DEM outcomes can identify children whose Visagraph recorded eye movement patterns show slow reading rates. However, when reading ability is accounted for, DEM outcomes are a poor predictor of reading rate. Visagraph outcomes of duration of fixation and reading rate relate to standardized reading achievement scores; however, DEM results do not. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Optometry.

Supermarket consumers and gender differences relating to their perceived importance levels of store characteristics

Family grocery shopping is the accepted domain of women; however, modern social and demographic movements challenge traditional gender roles with in the family structure. Men now engage in grocery shopping more freely and frequently, yet the essence of male shopping behaviour and beliefs present an opportunity for examination. This research identifies specific store characteristics, investigates the perceived importance of those characteristics and explores gender, age and income differences that may exist. A random sample collection methodology involving 280 male and female grocery shoppers was selected. Results indicated significant statistical differences between genders based on perceptions of importance of most store characteristics. Overall, male grocery shoppers considered supermarket store characteristics less important than female shoppers. Income did not affect shoppers’ level of associated importance; however respondents’ age, education and occupation influenced perceptions of price, promotions and cleanliness.

Visual voice activity detection using frontal versus profile views

Visual activity detection of lip movements can be used to overcome the poor performance of voice activity detection based solely in the audio domain, particularly in noisy acoustic conditions. However, most of the research conducted in visual voice activity detection (VVAD) has neglected addressing variabilities in the visual domain such as viewpoint variation. In this paper we investigate the effectiveness of the visual information from the speaker’s frontal and profile views (i.e left and right side views) for the task of VVAD. As far as we are aware, our work constitutes the first real attempt to study this problem. We describe our visual front end approach and the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) based VVAD framework, and report the experimental results using the freely available CUAVE database. The experimental results show that VVAD is indeed possible from profile views and we give a quantitative comparison of VVAD based on frontal and profile views The results presented are useful in the development of multi-modal Human Machine Interaction (HMI) using a single camera, where the speaker’s face may not always be frontal.

Thinking feeling

In “Thinking Feeling” a camera zooms in and around an animated constellation of words. There are ten words, each repeated one hundred times. The individual words independently pulse and orbit an invisible nucleus. The slow movements of the words and camera are reinforced by an airy, synthesised soundtrack. Over time, various phrasal combinations form and dissolve on screen. A bit like forcing oneself to sleep, “Thinking Feeling” picks at that fine line between controlling and letting go of thoughts. It creates small mantric loops that slip in and out of focus, playing with the liminal zones between the conscious and unconscious, between language and sensation, between gripping and releasing, and between calm and irritation.