Insurance with frequent trading

This paper looks at the dynamic management of risk in an economy with discrete time consumption and endowments and continuous trading. I study how agents in such an economy deal with all the risk in the economy and attain their Pareto optimal allocations by trading in a few natural securities: private insurance contracts and a common set of derivatives on the aggregate endowment. The parsimonious nature ofthe implied securities needed for Pareto optimality suggests that insuch contexts complete markets is a very reasonable assumption.

Expression of the proto-oncogene c-fos in three-dimensional fetal brain cell cultures and the lack of correlation with maturation-inducing stimuli.

Previous work has shown that aggregating fetal brain cell cultures are able to attain a highly differentiated state, and that their development is greatly enhanced by growth and/or differentiation factors such as epidermal growth factor (EGF), basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF), and the protein kinase C-activating tumor promoter mezerein. The present study shows that in these 3-dimensional cultures the peptide growth factors EGF and bFGF as well as mezerein are able to induce the expression of the proto-oncogene c-fos. This induction was rapid and transient, in good agreement with observations reported from a wide variety of cell types in vitro. The maximal levels of c-fos mRNA found after stimulation were low in immature cultures and increased greatly as maturation progressed. Of the three factors tested, mezerein was the most potent inducer of c-fos. In contrast to the peptide growth factors EGF and bFGF which were found to induce c-fos only in glial cells, mezerein was stimulatory in glial cells as well as in neurons. A similar cell type specificity has been observed previously for the maturation-enhancing response in immature aggregate cultures. However, in the present study no correlation was found between the degree of c-fos induction and the extent of the maturation-enhancing stimulation. Immature cultures known to be most sensitive and responsive to these maturation-enhancing agents required relatively high doses of peptide growth factors for the induction of c-fos, and the maximal levels of c-fos mRNA elicited were much lower than those in differentiated cultures which did not show any long-term response to these stimuli.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Taking "Galton's problem" Seriously : Towards a Theory of Policy Diffusion

This article builds on the recent policy diffusion literature and attempts to overcome one of its major problems, namely the lack of a coherent theoretical framework. The literature defines policy diffusion as a process where policy choices are interdependent, and identifies several diffusion mechanisms that specify the link between the policy choices of the various actors. As these mechanisms are grounded in different theories, theoretical accounts of diffusion currently have little internal coherence. In this article we put forward an expected-utility model of policy change that is able to subsume all the diffusion mechanisms. We argue that the expected utility of a policy depends on both its effectiveness and the payoffs it yields, and we show that the various diffusion mechanisms operate by altering these two parameters. Each mechanism affects one of the two parameters, and does so in distinct ways. To account for aggregate patterns of diffusion, we embed our model in a simple threshold model of diffusion. Given the high complexity of the process that results, strong analytical conclusions on aggregate patterns cannot be drawn without more extensive analysis which is beyond the scope of this article. However, preliminary considerations indicate that a wide range of diffusion processes may exist and that convergence is only one possible outcome.

The great diversification and its undoing

We investigate the hypothesis that macroeconomic fluctuations are primitively theresults of many microeconomic shocks, and show that it has significant explanatorypower for the evolution of macroeconomic volatility. We define ?fundamental? volatilityas the volatility that would arise from an economy made entirely of idiosyncratic microeconomicshocks, occurring primitively at the level of sectors or firms. In its empiricalconstruction, motivated by a simple model, the sales share of different sectors vary overtime (in a way we directly measure), while the volatility of those sectors remains constant.We find that fundamental volatility accounts for the swings in macroeconomicvolatility in the US and the other major world economies in the past half century. Itaccounts for the ?great moderation? and its undoing. Controlling for our measure offundamental volatility, there is no break in output volatility. The initial great moderationis due to a decreasing share of manufacturing between 1975 and 1985. The recentrise of macroeconomic volatility is due to the increase of the size of the financial sector.We provide a model to think quantitatively about the large comovement generated byidiosyncratic shocks. As the origin of aggregate shocks can be traced to identifiablemicroeconomic shocks, we may better understand the origins of aggregate fluctuations.

Previsió d'impactes en el medi físic, derivats de l'explotació de les formacions geològiques d'interés per a la producció d'àrids, a la zona del curs mitjà del Riu Fluvià (La Garrotxa)

Potential mining of the pliocene and quaternary geological formations for the aggregate production along the medium course of the Fluvil river is likely to be carried out through gravel pits. The most significant environmental impacts are envisaged to occur during site preparation and extraction of aggregate. Several environmental impacts types have been considered: variation of water table, reduction of soil and vegetation, development of unbalanced land-forms and deterioration of landscape

Unitats litològiques d'interès per a la producció d'àrids a l'àrea del curs mitjà del riu Fluvià (la Garrotxa)

Pleistocene and Quaternary sediments adjacent to the medium course of the Fluvià river are a source of aggregate in the Garrotxa. Four lithological units can be used directly, or with a minimal processing as coarse aggregate. They have been mapped in detail at the 1:5.000 escale. The stratigraphic analysis have made possible the four units to be ordered in relation to their suitibility for usage as aggregate. From high to low relative quality they are: the basaltic flow, fluviatile deposits, plio-quaternary conglomerates, and glacis deposits

Monetary policy and rational asset price bubbles

I examine the impact of alternative monetary policy rules on arational asset price bubble, through the lens of an overlapping generations model with nominal rigidities. A systematic increase in interestrates in response to a growing bubble is shown to enhance the fluctuations in the latter, through its positive effect on bubble growth. Theoptimal monetary policy seeks to strike a balance between stabilization of the bubble and stabilization of aggregate demand. The paper'smain findings call into question the theoretical foundations of the casefor "leaning against the wind" monetary policies.

Policy attitudes, ideological values and social representations

This article reviews research on policy attitudes and ideological values from the perspective of social representations theory. In the first part of the paper, key features of lay political thinking are presented, its pragmatic imperative, its focus on communication and the social functions of shared knowledge. Objectification transforms abstract and group-neutral ideological values into concrete and socially useful knowledge, in particular stereotypes of value-conforming and value-violating groups. Such shared understandings of intergroup relations provide citizens with common reference knowledge which provides the cognitive and cultural basis of policy attitudes. Social representations theory further suggests that lay knowledge reflects the social context in which it has been elaborated (anchoring), an aspect which allows conceptualising aggregate-level differences in policy attitudes. In the second part of the paper, a model of lay conceptions of social order is outlined which organises four shared conceptions of social order, along with the stereotype-based thinking associated with each conception: Moral order, Free Market, Social diversity and Structural inequality. We conclude by arguing that policy attitudes are symbolic devices expressed to justify or to challenge existing social arrangements.

State-space approach to evaluate the relation between soil physical and chemical properties

The state-space approach is used to evaluate the relation between soil physical and chemical properties in an area cultivated with sugarcane. The experiment was carried out on a Rhodic Kandiudalf in Piracicaba, State of São Paulo, Brazil. Sugarcane was planted on an area of 0.21 ha i.e., in 15 rows 100 m long, spaced 1.4 m. Soil water content, soil organic matter, clay content and aggregate stability were sampled along a transect of 84 points, meter by meter. The state-space approach is used to evaluate how the soil water content is affected by itself and by soil organic matter, clay content, and aggregate stability of neighboring locations, in different combinations, aiming to contribute to a better understanding of the relation among these variables in the soil. Results show that soil water contents were successfully estimated by this approach. Best performances were found when the estimate of soil water content at locations i was related to soil water content, clay content and aggregate stability at locations i-1. Results also indicate that this state-space model using all series describes the soil water content better than any equivalent multiple regression equation.

Transformations in occluded light fraction organic matter in a clayey oxisol: evidence from 13C-CPMAS-NMR and delta13C Signature

We hypothesised that, during occlusion inside granular aggregates of oxide-rich soils, the light fraction organic matter would undergo a strong process of decomposition, either due to the slow process of aggregate formation and stabilisation or due to digestion in the macro- and meso-fauna guts. This process would favour the accumulation of recalcitrant materials inside aggregates. The aim of this study was to compare the dynamics and the chemical composition of free and occluded light fraction organic matter in a natural cerrado vegetation (woodland savannah) and a nearby pasture (Brachiaria spp.) to elucidate the transformations during occlusion of light fraction in aggregates of a clayey Oxisol. Nuclear Magnetic Resonance of the 13C, with Cross Polarisation and Magic Angle Spinning (13C-CPMAS-NMR), and 13C/12C isotopic ratio were combined to study organic matter composition and changes in carbon dynamics, respectively. The occluded light fraction had a slower turnover than the free light fraction and the heavy fraction. Organic matter in the occluded fraction also showed a higher degree of decomposition. The results confirm that processes of soil organic matter occlusion in the typical "very fine strong granular" structure of the studied oxide-rich soil led to an intense transformation, selectively preserving stable organic matter. The small amount of organic material stored as occluded light faction, as well as its stability, suggests that this is not an important or manageable sink for sequestration of atmospheric CO2.

Aggregat-Zellkulturen

Aggregate cultures are primary cell cultures prepared from dissociated fetal cells. In rotation-mediated culture under rigorously controlled conditions, the isolated cells are able to reaggregate spontaneously, and to form a large number of practically identical spheres. The three-dimensional cell structure in each aggregate provides a maximum of cell-cell interactions, and thus enables the cells to rearrange and to develop in an organotypic fashion. Relatively simple techniques are now available which permit the preparation of aggregate cultures from fetal brain and liver cells. Since they can be grown in a chemically defined medium, and because they mimic several morphogenetic events occurring in vivo, these cultures offer a unique model for developmental studies. Moreover, they may be used as well for routine testing, for example for screening purposes in toxicology, and thus contribute to the reduction of animal experiments.

Tumor necrosis factor-alpha and alphaB-crystallin up-regulation during antibody-mediated demyelination in vitro: a putative protective mechanism in oligodendrocytes.

By using an in vitro model of antibody-mediated demyelination, we investigated the relationship between tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) and heat shock protein (HSP) induction with respect to oligodendrocyte survival. Differentiated aggregate cultures of rat telencephalon were subjected to demyelination by exposure to antibodies against myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) and complement. Cultures were analyzed 48 hr after exposure. Myelin basic protein (MBP) expression was greatly decreased, but no evidence was found for either necrosis or apoptosis. TNF-alpha was significantly up-regulated. It was localized predominantly in neurons and to a lesser extent in astrocytes and oligodendrocytes, and it was not detectable in microglial cells. Among the different HSPs examined, HSP32 and alphaB-crystallin were up-regulated; they may confer protection from oxidative stress and from apoptotic death, respectively. These results suggest that TNF-alpha, often regarded as a promoter of oligodendroglial death, could alternatively mediate a protective pathway through alphaB-crystallin up-regulation.

Comparison of clinical and angiographic prognostic risk scores in elderly patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome and referred for percutaneous coronary intervention.

BACKGROUND: Multiple risk prediction models have been validated in all-age patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI); however, they have not been validated specifically in the elderly. METHODS: We calculated the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) score, the logistic EuroSCORE, the AMIS (Acute Myocardial Infarction Swiss registry) score, and the SYNTAX (Synergy between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery) score in a consecutive series of 114 patients ≥75 years presenting with ACS and treated with PCI within 24 hours of hospital admission. Patients were stratified according to score tertiles and analysed retrospectively by comparing the lower/mid tertiles as an aggregate group with the higher tertile group. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Secondary endpoints were the composite of death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) at 30 days, and 1-year MACE-free survival. Model discrimination ability was assessed using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Thirty-day mortality was higher in the upper tertile compared with the aggregate lower/mid tertiles according to the logistic EuroSCORE (42% vs 5%; odds ratio [OR] = 14, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4-48; p <0.001; AUC = 0.79), the GRACE score (40% vs 4%; OR = 17, 95% CI = 4-64; p <0.001; AUC = 0.80), the AMIS score (40% vs 4%; OR = 16, 95% CI = 4-63; p <0.001; AUC = 0.80), and the SYNTAX score (37% vs 5%; OR = 11, 95% CI = 3-37; p <0.001; AUC = 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: In elderly patients presenting with ACS and referred to PCI within 24 hours of admission, the GRACE score, the EuroSCORE, the AMIS score, and the SYNTAX score predicted 30 day mortality. The predictive value of clinical scores was improved by using them in combination.

Alternative reproductive strategies in Formica lugubris Zett (Hymenoptera, Formicidae)

A long term study on the reproductive strategies of Formica lugubris (Formica rufa group) has revealed many new important facts. Within a supercolony the sex-ratio is strongly female biased. Some of the sexuals mate on the nest surface, whereas others fly from the nest. Those sexuals participating in flights aggregate in particular meadow sites (mating places). On these places females attract males by releasing a sex pheromone.

A territorial model of commuting in Catalonia, 1986-1996

Commuting consists in the fact that an important fraction of workers in developed countries do not reside close to their workplaces but at long distances from them, so they have to travel to their jobs and then back home daily. Although most workers hold a job in the same municipality where they live or in a neighbouring one, an important fraction of workers face long daily trips to get to their workplace and then back home.Even if we divide Catalonia (Spain) in small aggregations of municipalities, trying to make them as close to local labour markets as possible, we will find out that some of them have a positive commuting balance, attracting many workers from other areas and providing local jobs for almost all their resident workers. On the other side, other zones seem to be mostly residential, so an important fraction of their resident workers hold jobs in different local labour markets. Which variables influence an area¿s role as an attraction pole or a residential zone? In previous papers (Artís et al, 1998a, 2000; Romaní, 1999) we have brought out the main individual variables that influence commuting by analysing a sample of Catalan workers and their commuting decisions. In this paper we perform an analysis of the territorial variables that influence commuting, using data for aggregate commuting flows in Catalonia from the 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses.These variables influence commuting in two different ways: a zone with a dense, welldeveloped economical structure will have a high density of jobs. Work demand cannot be fulfilled with resident workers, so it spills over local boundaries. On the other side, this economical activity has a series of side-effects like pollution, congestion or high land prices which make these areas less desirable to live in. Workers who can afford it may prefer to live in less populated, less congested zones, where they can find cheaper land, larger homes and a better quality of life. The penalty of this decision is an increased commuting time. Our aim in this paper is to highlight the influence of local economical structure and amenities endowment in the workplace-residence location decision. A place-to-place logit commuting models is estimated for 1991 and 1996 in order to find the economical and amenities variables with higher influence in commuting decisions. From these models, we can outline a first approximation to the evolution of these variables in the 1986-1996 period. Data have been obtained from aggregate flow travel-matrix from the 1986, 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses