Bayesian adaptive estimation of arbitrary points on a psychometric function

Bayesian adaptive methods have been extensively used in psychophysics to estimate the point at which performance on a task attains arbitrary percentage levels, although the statistical properties of these estimators have never been assessed. We used simulation techniques to determine the small-sample properties of Bayesian estimators of arbitrary performance points, specifically addressing the issues of bias and precision as a function of the target percentage level. The study covered three major types of psychophysical task (yes-no detection, 2AFC discrimination and 2AFC detection) and explored the entire range of target performance levels allowed for by each task. Other factors included in the study were the form and parameters of the actual psychometric function Psi, the form and parameters of the model function M assumed in the Bayesian method, and the location of Psi within the parameter space. Our results indicate that Bayesian adaptive methods render unbiased estimators of any arbitrary point on psi only when M=Psi, and otherwise they yield bias whose magnitude can be considerable as the target level moves away from the midpoint of the range of Psi. The standard error of the estimator also increases as the target level approaches extreme values whether or not M=Psi. Contrary to widespread belief, neither the performance level at which bias is null nor that at which standard error is minimal can be predicted by the sweat factor. A closed-form expression nevertheless gives a reasonable fit to data describing the dependence of standard error on number of trials and target level, which allows determination of the number of trials that must be administered to obtain estimates with prescribed precision.

Seismic scattering and absorption mapping of debris flows, feeding paths, and tectonic units at Mount St. Helens volcano

Acknowledgments We thank Edoardo Del Pezzo, Ludovic Margerin, Haruo Sato, Mare Yamamoto, Tatsuhiko Saito, Malcolm Hole, and Seth Moran for the valuable suggestions regarding the methodology and interpretation. Greg Waite provided the P wave velocity model of MSH. An important revision of the methods was done after two blind reviews performed before submission. The suggestions of two anonymous reviewers greatly enhanced our ability of imaging structures, interpreting our results, and testing their reliability. The facilities of the IRIS Data Management System, and specifically the IRIS Data Management Center, were used for access to waveform and metadata required in this study, and provided by the Cascades Volcano Observatory – USGS. Interaction with geologists and geographers part of the Landscape Dynamics Theme of the Scottish Alliance for Geoscience, Environment and Society (SAGES) has been important for the interpretation of the results.

Eyewitness Memory: Balancing the Accuracy, Precision, and Quantity of Information through Metacognitive Monitoring and Control

Historically, memory has been evaluated by examining how much is remembered, however a more recent conception of memory focuses on the accuracy of memories. When using this accuracy-oriented conception of memory, unlike with the quantity-oriented approach, memory does not always deteriorate over time. A possible explanation for this seemingly surprising finding lies in the metacognitive processes of monitoring and control. Use of these processes allows people to withhold responses of which they are unsure, or to adjust the precision of responses to a level that is broad enough to be correct. The ability to accurately report memories has implications for investigators who interview witnesses to crimes, and those who evaluate witness testimony. This research examined the amount of information provided, accuracy, and precision of responses provided during immediate and delayed interviews about a videotaped mock crime. The interview format was manipulated such that a single free narrative response was elicited, or a series of either yes/no or cued questions were asked. Instructions provided by the interviewer indicated to the participants that they should either stress being informative, or being accurate. The interviews were then transcribed and scored. Results indicate that accuracy rates remained stable and high after a one week delay. Compared to those interviewed immediately, after a delay participants provided less information and responses that were less precise. Participants in the free narrative condition were the most accurate. Participants in the cued questions condition provided the most precise responses. Participants in the yes/no questions condition were most likely to say “I don’t know”. The results indicate that people are able to monitor their memories and modify their reports to maintain high accuracy. When control over precision was not possible, such as in the yes/no condition, people said “I don’t know” to maintain accuracy. However when withholding responses and adjusting precision were both possible, people utilized both methods. It seems that concerns that memories reported after a long retention interval might be inaccurate are unfounded.

The adaptive response of humans to exercise: Impact of exercise intensity, fibre-type specific responses and molecular patterns of response

In an attempt to improve the current understanding of the adaptive response to exercise in humans, this dissertation performed a series of studies designed to examine the impact of training intensity and mode on aerobic capacity and performance, fibre-type specific adaptations to training, and individual patterns of response across molecular, morphological and genetic factors. Project #1 determined that training intensity, session dose, baseline VO2max and total training volume do not influence the magnitude of change in VO2max by performing a meta-regression, and meta-analysis of 28 different studies. The intensity of training had no effect on the magnitude of increase in maximal oxygen uptake in young healthy participants, but similar adaptations were achieved with lower training doses following high intensity training. Project # 2 determined the acute molecular response, and training-induced adaptations in aerobic performance, aerobic capacity and muscle phenotype following high-intensity interval training (HIT) or endurance exercise (END). The acute molecular response (fibre recruitment and signal activation) and training-induced adaptations in aerobic capacity, aerobic performance, and muscle phenotype were similar following HIT and END. Project # 3 examined the impact of baseline muscle morphology and molecular characteristics on the training response, and if muscle adaptations are coordinated. The muscle phenotype of individuals who experience the largest improvements (high responders) were lower before training for some muscle characteristics and molecular adaptations were coordinated within individual participants. Project # 4 examined the impact of 2 different intensities of HIT on the expression of nuclear and mitochondrial encoded genes targeted by PGC-1α. A systematic upregulation of nuclear and mitochondrial encoded genes was not present in the early recovery period following acute HIT, but the expression of mitochondrial genes were coordinated at an individual level. Collectively, results from the current dissertation contribute to our understanding of the molecular mechanisms influencing skeletal muscle and whole-body adaptive responses to acute exercise and training in humans.

Design of information architecture of the web site of the Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Tourism of the Universidad Central “Marta Abreu” de Las Villas (Cuba)

The information architecture supports information retrieval by users in Web environment. The design should be center in the information user, favoring usability. The Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Tourism of the Universidad Central "Marta Abreu" de Las Villas, lacks a site that enhances the disclosure of information to its members. Are presented as objectives of the study: 1) conduct a user survey to identify information needs of users, 2) establish guidelines for information architecture for the institution focused on users, 3) designing the information architecture for the institution and 4) designed to evaluate the proposal. Are presented as objectives of the study: 1) to realize a user study to identify the information needs of users, 2) establish guidelines for information architecture for the institution focused on users, 3) to design the information architecture for the institution and 4) to evaluate the proposal designed. To obtain results are used methods in the theoretical and empirical levels. Besides, are use techniques that favored the design and evaluation. Is designed the intranet of the Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Tourism. Is evaluated the proposed design for the validation of the results.

The Political Economy of Information Provision in Developing Democracies

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-07

On the continuum modelling of granular flows with the aid of micro-mechanical parametrisations

Abstract not available

Social welfare aspects of information with special reference to news.

The information society thesis, according to which economically advanced nations are undergoing transformation into post-industrial, information-based societies, can, with caveats, be taken as a premise. Essentially empirical or predictive, this influential set of claims quickly gives rise to major normative issues. The paper asks how, as part of a prospective normative theory of the information society, information may be shown to contribute to social goals in general and social welfare in particular. Given the diverse range of referents of the term 'information' in the context of the information society debate, the paper focuses on news as a form of information whose communication is widely held to be important to society. The problem is how to quantify or otherwise prove this intuition. It is suggested that a fusion of welfare economics and the economics of information may yield a solution. The paper is designed to be exploratory, offering a potential line of inquiry for the future research and policy agenda of information society studies.

Biological Principles of Information Storage and Retrieval

Published in Electronic Handling of Information: Testing and Evaluation, Kent, Taubee, Beltzer, and Goldstein (ed.), Academic Press, London(1967), pp. 123–147.

Connecting: the use of information and communication technologies by older adults in a retirement community

This is a long-term study of the use of information and communication technologies by 30 older adults (ages 70–97) living in a large retirement community. The study spanned the years of 1996 to 2008, during which time the research participants grappled with the challenges of computer use while aging 12 years. The researcher, herself a ‘mature learner,’ used a qualitative research design which included observations and open-ended interviews. Using a strategy of “intermittent immersion,” she spent an average of two weeks per visit on site and participated in the lives of the research population in numerous ways, including service as their computer tutor. With e-mail and telephone contact, she was able to continue her interactions with participants throughout the 12-year period. A long-term perspective afforded the view of the evolution, devolution or cessation of the technology use by these older adults, and this process is chronicled in detail through five individual “profiles.” Three research questions dominated the inquiry: What function do computers serve in the lives of older adults? Does computer use foster or interfere with social ties? Is social support necessary for success in the face of challenging learning tasks? In answer to the first question, it became clear that computers were valued as a symbol of competence and intelligence. Some individuals brought their computers with them when transferred to the single-room residences of assisted living or nursing care facilities. Even when use had ceased, their computers were displayed to signal that their owners were or had once been keeping up to date. In answer to the second question, computer owners socialized around computing use (with in-person family members or friends) more than, or as much as, they socialized through their computers in the digital realm of the Internet. And in answer to the third question, while the existence of social support did facilitate computer exploration, more important was the social support network generated and developed among fellow computer users.

Effect of information feedback on training standing up following stroke : a pilot feasibilty study

Effects of Information and Time of Use Pricing on Irish Electricity Demand and Supply

In this dissertation I quantify residential behavior response to interventions designed to reduce electricity demand at different periods of the day. In the first chapter, I examine the effect of information provision coupled with bimonthly billing, monthly billing, and in-home displays, as well as a time-of-use (TOU) pricing scheme to measure consumption over each month of the Irish Consumer Behavior Trial. I find that time-of-use pricing with real time usage information reduces electricity usage up to 8.7 percent during peak times at the start of the trial but the effect decays over the first three months and after three months the in-home display group is indistinguishable from the monthly treatment group. Monthly and bi-monthly billing treatments are not found to be statistically different from another. These findings suggest that increasing billing reports to the monthly level may be more cost effective for electricity generators who wish to decrease expenses and consumption, rather than providing in-home displays. In the following chapter, I examine the response of residential households after exposure to time of use tariffs at different hours of the day. I find that these treatments reduce electricity consumption during peak hours by almost four percent, significantly lowering demand. Within the model, I find evidence of overall conservation in electricity used. In addition, weekday peak reductions appear to carry over to the weekend when peak pricing is not present, suggesting changes in consumer habit. The final chapter of my dissertation imposes a system wide time of use plan to analyze the potential reduction in carbon emissions from load shifting based on the Ireland and Northern Single Electricity Market. I find that CO2 emissions savings are highest during the winter months when load demand is highest and dirtier power plants are scheduled to meet peak demand. TOU pricing allows for shifting in usage from peak usage to off peak usage and this shift in load can be met with cleaner and cheaper generated electricity from imports, high efficiency gas units, and hydro units.