A Computer program for estimating population size by the removal method

A BASIC computer program (REMOVAL) was developed to compute in a VAXNMS environment all the calculations of the removal method for population size estimation (catch-effort method for closed populations with constant sampling effort). The program follows the maximum likelihood methodology,checks the failure conditions, applies the appropriate formula, and displays the estimates of population size and catchability, with their standard deviations and coefficients of variation, and two goodness-of-fit statistics with their significance levels. Data of removal experiments for the cyprinodontid fish Aphanius iberus in the Alt Emporda wetlands are used to exemplify the use of the program

Estimating extreme value cumulative distribution functions using bias-corrected kernel approaches

We propose a new kernel estimation of the cumulative distribution function based on transformation and on bias reducing techniques. We derive the optimal bandwidth that minimises the asymptotic integrated mean squared error. The simulation results show that our proposed kernel estimation improves alternative approaches when the variable has an extreme value distribution with heavy tail and the sample size is small.

Quantitative market and sales forecast accuracy analysis

The main objective of this master’s thesis was to quantitatively study the reliability of market and sales forecasts of a certain company by measuring bias, precision and accuracy of these forecasts by comparing forecasts against actual values. Secondly, the differences of bias, precision and accuracy between markets were explained by various macroeconomic variables and market characteristics. Accuracy and precision of the forecasts seems to vary significantly depending on the market that is being forecasted, the variable that is being forecasted, the estimation period, the length of the estimated period, the forecast horizon and the granularity of the data. High inflation, low income level and high year-on-year market volatility seems to be related with higher annual market forecast uncertainty and high year-on-year sales volatility with higher sales forecast uncertainty. When quarterly market size is forecasted, correlation between macroeconomic variables and forecast errors reduces. Uncertainty of the sales forecasts cannot be explained with macroeconomic variables. Longer forecasts are more uncertain, shorter estimated period leads to higher uncertainty, and usually more recent market forecasts are less uncertain. Sales forecasts seem to be more uncertain than market forecasts, because they incorporate both market size and market share risks. When lead time is more than one year, forecast risk seems to grow as a function of root forecast horizon. When lead time is less than year, sequential error terms are typically correlated, and therefore forecast errors are trending or mean-reverting. The bias of forecasts seems to change in cycles, and therefore the future forecasts cannot be systematically adjusted with it. The MASE cannot be used to measure whether the forecast can anticipate year-on-year volatility. Instead, we constructed a new relative accuracy measure to cope with this particular situation.

Time course of error detection and correction in humans: neurophysiological evidence.

Using event-related brain potentials, the time course of error detection and correction was studied in healthy human subjects. A feedforward model of error correction was used to predict the timing properties of the error and corrective movements. Analysis of the multichannel recordings focused on (1) the error-related negativity (ERN) seen immediately after errors in response- and stimulus-locked averages and (2) on the lateralized readiness potential (LRP) reflecting motor preparation. Comparison of the onset and time course of the ERN and LRP components showed that the signs of corrective activity preceded the ERN. Thus, error correction was implemented before or at least in parallel with the appearance of the ERN component. Also, the amplitude of the ERN component was increased for errors, followed by fast corrective movements. The results are compatible with recent views considering the ERN component as the output of an evaluative system engaged in monitoring motor conflict.

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement -SCR-, under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Error Modeling and Accuracy Analysis of a Novel Mobile Hybrid Parallel Robot

Over the last decades, calibration techniques have been widely used to improve the accuracy of robots and machine tools since they only involve software modification instead of changing the design and manufacture of the hardware. Traditionally, there are four steps are required for a calibration, i.e. error modeling, measurement, parameter identification and compensation. The objective of this thesis is to propose a method for the kinematics analysis and error modeling of a newly developed hybrid redundant robot IWR (Intersector Welding Robot), which possesses ten degrees of freedom (DOF) where 6-DOF in parallel and additional 4-DOF in serial. In this article, the problem of kinematics modeling and error modeling of the proposed IWR robot are discussed. Based on the vector arithmetic method, the kinematics model and the sensitivity model of the end-effector subject to the structure parameters is derived and analyzed. The relations between the pose (position and orientation) accuracy and manufacturing tolerances, actuation errors, and connection errors are formulated. Computer simulation is performed to examine the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Models for the estimation of thermodynamic properties of layered double hydroxides: application to the study of their anion exchange characteristics

Several models for the estimation of thermodynamic properties of layered double hydroxides (LDHs) are presented. The predicted thermodynamic quantities calculated by the proposed models agree with experimental thermodynamic data. A thermodynamic study of the anion exchange process on LDHs is also made using the described models. Tables for the prediction of monovalent anion exchange selectivities on LDHs are provided. Reasonable agreement is found between the predicted and the experimental monovalent anion exchange selectivities.

Error en el consentimiento en los contratos de SWAP

Cada cert temps hi ha assumptes d’alt interès social dins de la jurisdicció. En els últims anys, coincidint amb la crisi financera internacional, els assumptes relatius a contractes bancaris complexos, sobretot permutes financeres o swaps, han tingut una gran rellevància. En un context de crisi financera internacional, i també nacional, s'han estès el nombre de demandes dirigides contra bancs i entitats financeres. Són reclamacions en les quals se sol·licita la declaració de nul·litat dels citats contractes, principalment es basa en un error del consentiment, nul·litat que comporta la devolució de les quantitats invertides, de les rentabilitats esperades o de les penalitzacions aplicades davant la resolució anticipada d'us contractes pels clients defraudats en les seves expectatives. Les presents pàgines pretenen un estudi dels litigis sobre SWAPS, principalment dels “Interest Rate Swap”, identificar quins són els contractes bancaris complexes, quines són les normes de consentiment contractual que els regeixen. Respecte dels primers, cal destacar que l'elevat nombre de casos plantejats davant els nostres tribunals no es tradueix en una casuística tan àmplia com seria imaginable. La gran majoria versa sobre les peticions de nul·litat del contracte (total o parcial) realitzades pels clients, al moment en què l'Euribor va descendir, i que allò que molts havien contractat com un segur de cobertura enfront dels elevats tipus d'interès que havien de pagar per les seves hipoteques, veien com conforme als pactes en el contracte, havien de satisfer al seu contrapart (una entitat de crèdit) una liquidació.

Estimation of Water Circulation in a Mediterranean Salt Marsh and its Relationship with Flooding Causes

Variations in water volume in small depressions in Mediterranean salt marshes in Girona (Spain) are described and the potential causes for these variations analysed. Although the basins appear to be endorrheic, groundwater circulation is intense, as estimated from the difference between water volume observed and that expected from the balance precipitation / evaporation. The rate of variation in volume (VR = AV / VAt) may be used to estimate groundwater supply ('circulation'), since direct measurements of this parameter are impossible. Volume.conductivity figures can also be used to estimate the quantity of circulation, and to investigate the origin of water supplied to the system. The relationships between variations in the volume of water in the basins and the main causes of flooding are also analysed. Sea storms, rainfall levels and strong, dry northerly winds are suggested as the main causes of the variations in the volumes of basins. The relative importance assigned to these factors has changed, following the recent regulation of freshwater flows entering the system

Hi ha veritats necessàries a posteriori?

En aquest treball es discuteix l’afirmació de Kripke de que certes identitats teòriques són exemples de veritats necessàries a posteriori

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia

Cost estimation framework for modular product

Cost estimation is an important, but challenging process when designing a new product or a feature of it, verifying the product prices given by suppliers or planning a cost saving actions of existing products. It is even more challenging when the product is highly modular, not a bulk product. In general, cost estimation techniques can be divided into two main groups - qualitative and quantitative techniques - which can further be classified into more detailed methods. Generally, qualitative techniques are preferable when comparing alternatives and quantitative techniques when cost relationships can be found. The main objective of this thesis was to develop a method on how to estimate costs of internally manufactured and commercial elevator landing doors. Because of the challenging product structure, the proposed cost estimation framework is developed under three different levels based on past cost information available. The framework consists of features from both qualitative and quantitative cost estimation techniques. The starting point for the whole cost estimation process is an unambiguous, hierarchical product structure so that the product can be classified into controllable parts and is then easier to handle. Those controllable parts can then be compared to existing past cost knowledge of similar parts and create as accurate cost estimates as possible by that way.

Bias and standard error for social reciprocity measurements

The directional consistency and skew-symmetry statistics have been proposed as global measurements of social reciprocity. Although both measures can be useful for quantifying social reciprocity, researchers need to know whether these estimators are biased in order to assess descriptive results properly. That is, if estimators are biased, researchers should compare actual values with expected values under the specified null hypothesis. Furthermore, standard errors are needed to enable suitable assessment of discrepancies between actual and expected values. This paper aims to derive some exact and approximate expressions in order to obtain bias and standard error values for both estimators for round-robin designs, although the results can also be extended to other reciprocal designs.

Entrevista con Manuel Villegas sobre 'El error de Prometeo. Psico(pato)logía del desarrollo moral'

Entrevista con Manuel Villegas

Sensor Fusion of Proprioception, Force and Vision in Estimation and Robot

Sensor-based robot control allows manipulation in dynamic environments with uncertainties. Vision is a versatile low-cost sensory modality, but low sample rate, high sensor delay and uncertain measurements limit its usability, especially in strongly dynamic environments. Force is a complementary sensory modality allowing accurate measurements of local object shape when a tooltip is in contact with the object. In multimodal sensor fusion, several sensors measuring different modalities are combined to give a more accurate estimate of the environment. As force and vision are fundamentally different sensory modalities not sharing a common representation, combining the information from these sensors is not straightforward. In this thesis, methods for fusing proprioception, force and vision together are proposed. Making assumptions of object shape and modeling the uncertainties of the sensors, the measurements can be fused together in an extended Kalman filter. The fusion of force and visual measurements makes it possible to estimate the pose of a moving target with an end-effector mounted moving camera at high rate and accuracy. The proposed approach takes the latency of the vision system into account explicitly, to provide high sample rate estimates. The estimates also allow a smooth transition from vision-based motion control to force control. The velocity of the end-effector can be controlled by estimating the distance to the target by vision and determining the velocity profile giving rapid approach and minimal force overshoot. Experiments with a 5-degree-of-freedom parallel hydraulic manipulator and a 6-degree-of-freedom serial manipulator show that integration of several sensor modalities can increase the accuracy of the measurements significantly.