Molecular dynamics simulation of observed c(4x4) and c(4x3) C60 alignments on the Si(100) reconstructed surface.

We have implemented a large-scale classical molecular dynamics simulation at constant temperature to provide a theoretical insight into the results of a recently performed experiment on the monolayer and multi-layer formations of molecular films on the Si(100) reconstructed dimerized surface. Our simulation has successfully reproduced all of the morphologies observed on the monolayer film by this experiment. We have obtained the formation of both c(4 4) and c(4 3) structures of the molecules and have also obtained phase transitions of the former into the latter.

Likelihood, entropy and species diversity; some comparisons in a Sumatran forest

In attempts to conserve the species diversity of trees in tropical forests, monitoring of diversity in inventories is essential. For effective monitoring it is crucial to be able to make meaningful comparisons between different regions, or comparisons of the diversity of a region at different times. Many species diversity measures have been defined, including the well-known abundance and entropy measures. All such measures share a number of problems in their effective practical use. However, probably the most problematic is that they cannot be used to meaningfully assess changes, since thay are only concerned with the number of species or the proportions of the population/sample which they constitute. A natural (though simplistic) model of a species frequency distribution is the multinomial distribution. It is shown that the likelihood analysis of samples from such a distribution are closely related to a number of entropy-type measures of diversity. Hence a comparison of the species distribution on two plots, using the multinomial model and likelihood methods, leads to generalised cross-entropy as the LRT test statistic of the null that the species distributions are the same. Data from 30 contiguous plots in a forest in Sumatra are analysed using these methods. Significance tests between all pairs of plots yield extremely low p-values, indicating strongly that it ought to been "Obvious" that the observed species distributions are different on different plots. In terms of how different the plots are, and how these differences vary over the whole study site, a display of the degrees of freedom of the test, (equivalent to the number of shared species) seems to be the most revealing indicator, as well as the simplest.

Forward and inverse transport of particulate matter and gaseous pollutants affecting the region bordering the English Channel

The ATTMA "Aerosol Transport in the Trans-Manche Atmosphere" project investigates the transportation and dispersion of air pollutants across the English Channel, in collaboration with local authorities and other Universities in Southern England and Northern France. The research is concerned with both forward and inverse (receptor based) tracking. Two alternative dispersion simulation methods are used: (a) Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) models, (b) Eulerian Finite Volume type models. This paper is concerned with part (a), the simulations based on LPD models. Two widely applied LPD models are used and compared. Since in many observed episodes the source of pollution is traced outside the region of interest, long range, trans-continental transport is also investigated.

Approximation Algorithms for a Symmetric Quadratic Knapsack Problem and its Scheduling Applications

We consider a knapsack problem to minimize a symmetric quadratic function. We demonstrate that this symmetric quadratic knapsack problem is relevant to two problems of single machine scheduling: the problem of minimizing the weighted sum of the completion times with a single machine non-availability interval under the non-resumable scenario; and the problem of minimizing the total weighted earliness and tardiness with respect to a common small due date. We develop a polynomial-time approximation algorithm that delivers a constant worst-case performance ratio for a special form of the symmetric quadratic knapsack problem. We adapt that algorithm to our scheduling problems and achieve a better performance. For the problems under consideration no fixed-ratio approximation algorithms have been previously known.

Numerical Modelling for Electronic Packaging - Future Requirements

The fabrication, assembly and testing of electronic packaging can involve complex interactions between physical phenomena such as temperature, fluid flow, electromagnetics, and stress. Numerical modelling and optimisation tools are key computer-aided-engineering technologies that aid design engineers. This paper discusses these technologies and there future developments.

Modelling human behaviour in underground emergency situations

This presentation will discuss current developments in evacuation modelling and its role in and application to underground applications

Airborne transport of Saharan dust to the Mediterranean and to the Atlantic

The Sahara desert is a significant source of particulate pollution not only to the Mediterranean region, but also to the Atlantic and beyond. In this paper, PM 10 exceedences recorded in the UK and the island of Crete are studied and their source investigated, using Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) methods. Forward and inverse simulations identify Saharan dust storms as the primary source of these episodes. The methodology used allows comparison between this primary source and other possible candidates, for example large forest fires or volcanic eruptions. Two LPD models are used in the simulations, namely the open source code FLEXPART and the proprietary code HYSPLIT. Driven by the same meteorological fields (the ECMWF MARS archive and the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale model, known as MM5) the codes produce similar, but not identical predictions. This inter-model comparison enables a critical assessment of the physical modelling assumptions employed in each code, plus the influence of boundary conditions and solution grid density. The outputs, in the form of particle concentrations evolving in time, are compared against satellite images and receptor data from multiple ground-based sites. Quantitative comparisons are good, especially in predicting the time of arrival of the dust plume in a particular location.

Modelling of nano-imprint forming process for the production of miniaturised 3D structures

Nano-imprint forming (NIF) as manufacturing technology is ideally placed to enable high resolution, low-cost and high-throughput fabrication of three-dimensional fine structures and the packaging of heterogeneous micro-systems (S.Y. Chou and P.R. Krauss, 1997). This paper details a thermo-mechanical modelling methodology for optimising this process for different materials used in components such as mini-fluidics and bio-chemical systems, optoelectronics, photonics and health usage monitoring systems (HUMS). This work is part of a major UK Grand Challenge project - 3D-Mintegration - which is aiming to develop modelling and design technologies for the next generation of fabrication, assembly and test processes for 3D-miniaturised systems.

The importance of high frequency data in ecological modelling.

The purpose of this note is to discuss the role of high frequency data in ecological modelling and to identify some of the data requirements for the further development of ecological models for operational oceanography. There is a pressing requirement for the establishment of data acquisition systems for key ecological variables with a high spatial and temporal coverage. Such a system will facilitate the development of operational models. It is envisaged that both in-situ and remotely sensed measurements will need to combined to achieve this aim.

Towards an integrated forecasting system for pelagic fisheries

First results of a coupled modeling and forecasting system for the pelagic fisheries are being presented. The system consists currently of three mathematically fundamentally different model subsystems: POLCOMS-ERSEM providing the physical-biogeochemical environment implemented in the domain of the North-West European shelf and the SPAM model which describes sandeel stocks in the North Sea. The third component, the SLAM model, connects POLCOMS-ERSEM and SPAM by computing the physical-biological interaction. Our major experience by the coupling model subsystems is that well-defined and generic model interfaces are very important for a successful and extendable coupled model framework. The integrated approach, simulating ecosystem dynamics from physics to fish, allows for analysis of the pathways in the ecosystem to investigate the propagation of changes in the ocean climate and lower trophic levels to quantify the impacts on the higher trophic level, in this case the sandeel population, demonstrated here on the base of hindcast data. The coupled forecasting system is tested for some typical scientific questions appearing in spatial fish stock management and marine spatial planning, including determination of local and basin scale maximum sustainable yield, stock connectivity and source/sink structure. Our presented simulations indicate that sandeels stocks are currently exploited close to the maximum sustainable yield, but large uncertainty is associated with determining stock maximum sustainable yield due to stock eigen dynamics and climatic variability. Our statistical ensemble simulations indicates that the predictive horizon set by climate interannual variability is 2–6 yr, after which only an asymptotic probability distribution of stock properties, like biomass, are predictable.

Data rescue and re-use: Recycling old information to address new policy concerns

Information on past trends is essential to inform future predictions and underpin attribution needed to drive policy responses. It has long been recognised that sustained observations are essential for disentangling climate-driven change from other regional and local-scale anthropogenic impacts and environmental fluctuations or cycles in natural systems. This paper highlights how data rescue and re-use have contributed to the debate on climate change responses of marine biodiversity and ecosystems. It also illustrates via two case studies the re-use of old data to address new policy concerns. The case studies focus on (1) plankton, fish and benthos from the Western English Channel and (2) broad-scale and long-term studies of intertidal species around the British Isles. Case study 1 using the Marine Biological Association of the UK's English Channel data has shown the influence of climatic fluctuations on phenology (migration and breeding patterns) and has also helped to disentangle responses to fishing pressure from those driven by climate, and provided insights into ecosystem-level change in the English Channel. Case study 2 has shown recent range extensions, increases of abundance and changes in phenology (breeding patterns) of southern, warm-water intertidal species in relation to recent rapid climate change and fluctuations in northern and southern barnacle species, enabling modelling and prediction of future states. The case is made for continuing targeted sustained observations and their importance for marine management and policy development.

Challenging assumptions of future coastal habitat development around the UK

One habitat management requirement forced by 21st century relative sea-level rise (RSLR), will be the need to re-comprehend the dimensions of long-term transgressive behaviour of coastal systems being forced by such RSLR. Fresh approaches to the conceptual modelling and subsequent implementation of new coastal and peri-marine habitats will be required. There is concern that existing approaches to forecasting coastal systems development (and by implication their associated scarce coastal habitats) over the next century depend on a certain premise of orderly spatial succession of habitats. This assumption is shown to be questionable given the possible future rates of RSLR, magnitude of shoreline retreat and the lack of coastal sediment to maintain the protective morphologies to low-energy coastal habitats. Of these issues, sediment deficiency is regarded as one of the major problem for future habitat development. Examples of contemporary behaviour of UK coasts show evidence of coastal sediment starvation resulting from relatively stable RSLR, anthropogenic sealing of coastal sources, and intercepted coastal sediment pathways, which together force segmentation of coastal systems. From these examples key principles are deduced which may prejudice the existence of future habitats: accelerated future sediment demand due to RSLR may not be met by supply and, if short- to medium-term hold-the-line policies predominate, long-term strategies for managed realignment and habitat enhancement may prove impossible goals. Methods of contemporary sediment husbandry may help sustain some habitats in place but otherwise, instead of integrated coastal organization, managers may need to consider coastal breakdown, segmentation and habitat reduction as the basis of 21st century coastal evolution and planning.