Neural Network and Bioinformatic Methods for Predicting HIV-1 Protease Inhibitor Resistance

This article presents a new method for predicting viral resistance to seven protease inhibitors from the HIV-1 genotype, and for identifying the positions in the protease gene at which the specific nature of the mutation affects resistance. The neural network Analog ARTMAP predicts protease inhibitor resistance from viral genotypes. A feature selection method detects genetic positions that contribute to resistance both alone and through interactions with other positions. This method has identified positions 35, 37, 62, and 77, where traditional feature selection methods have not detected a contribution to resistance. At several positions in the protease gene, mutations confer differing degress of resistance, depending on the specific amino acid to which the sequence has mutated. To find these positions, an Amino Acid Space is introduced to represent genes in a vector space that captures the functional similarity between amino acid pairs. Feature selection identifies several new positions, including 36, 37, and 43, with amino acid-specific contributions to resistance. Analog ARTMAP networks applied to inputs that represent specific amino acids at these positions perform better than networks that use only mutation locations.

Spiking Dynamics during Perceptual Grouping in the Laminar Circuits of Visual Cortex

Grouping of collinear boundary contours is a fundamental process during visual perception. Illusory contour completion vividly illustrates how stable perceptual boundaries interpolate between pairs of contour inducers, but do not extrapolate from a single inducer. Neural models have simulated how perceptual grouping occurs in laminar visual cortical circuits. These models predicted the existence of grouping cells that obey a bipole property whereby grouping can occur inwardly between pairs or greater numbers of similarly oriented and co-axial inducers, but not outwardly from individual inducers. These models have not, however, incorporated spiking dynamics. Perceptual grouping is a challenge for spiking cells because its properties of collinear facilitation and analog sensitivity to inducer configurations occur despite irregularities in spike timing across all the interacting cells. Other models have demonstrated spiking dynamics in laminar neocortical circuits, but not how perceptual grouping occurs. The current model begins to unify these two modeling streams by implementing a laminar cortical network of spiking cells whose intracellular temporal dynamics interact with recurrent intercellular spiking interactions to quantitatively simulate data from neurophysiological experiments about perceptual grouping, the structure of non-classical visual receptive fields, and gamma oscillations.

Neural Control of Interlimb Coordination and Gait Timing in Bipeds and Quadrupeds

1) A large body of behavioral data conceming animal and human gaits and gait transitions is simulated as emergent properties of a central pattern generator (CPG) model. The CPG model incorporates neurons obeying Hodgkin-Huxley type dynamics that interact via an on-center off-surround anatomy whose excitatory signals operate on a faster time scale than their inhibitory signals. A descending cornmand or arousal signal called a GO signal activates the gaits and controL their transitions. The GO signal and the CPG model are compared with neural data from globus pallidus and spinal cord, among other brain structures. 2) Data from human bimanual finger coordination tasks are simulated in which anti-phase oscillations at low frequencies spontaneously switch to in-phase oscillations at high frequencies, in-phase oscillations can be performed both at low and high frequencies, phase fluctuations occur at the anti-phase in-phase transition, and a "seagull effect" of larger errors occurs at intermediate phases. When driven by environmental patterns with intermediate phase relationships, the model's output exhibits a tendency to slip toward purely in-phase and anti-phase relationships as observed in humans subjects. 3) Quadruped vertebrate gaits, including the amble, the walk, all three pairwise gaits (trot, pace, and gallop) and the pronk are simulated. Rapid gait transitions are simulated in the order--walk, trot, pace, and gallop--that occurs in the cat, along with the observed increase in oscillation frequency. 4) Precise control of quadruped gait switching is achieved in the model by using GO-dependent modulation of the model's inhibitory interactions. This generates a different functional connectivity in a single CPG at different arousal levels. Such task-specific modulation of functional connectivity in neural pattern generators has been experimentally reported in invertebrates. Phase-dependent modulation of reflex gain has been observed in cats. A role for state-dependent modulation is herein predicted to occur in vertebrates for precise control of phase transitions from one gait to another. 5) The primary human gaits (the walk and the run) and elephant gaits (the amble and the walk) are sirnulated. Although these two gaits are qualitatively different, they both have the same limb order and may exhibit oscillation frequencies that overlap. The CPG model simulates the walk and the run by generating oscillations which exhibit the same phase relationships. but qualitatively different waveform shapes, at different GO signal levels. The fraction of each cycle that activity is above threshold quantitatively distinguishes the two gaits, much as the duty cycles of the feet are longer in the walk than in the run. 6) A key model properly concerns the ability of a single model CPG, that obeys a fixed set of opponent processing equations to generate both in-phase and anti-phase oscillations at different arousal levels. Phase transitions from either in-phase to anti-phase oscillations, or from anti-phase to in-phase oscillations, can occur in different parameter ranges, as the GO signal increases.

Multi-Area Visuotopic Map Complexes in Macaque Striate and Extra-striate Cortex

We propose that a simple, closed-form mathematical expression--the Wedge-Dipole mapping--provides a concise approximation to the full-field, two-dimensional topographic structure of macaque V1, V2, and V3. A single map function, which we term a map complex, acts as a simultaneous descriptor of all three areas. Quantitative estimation of the Wedge-Dipole parameters is provided via 2DG data of central-field V1 topography and a publicly available data set of full-field macaque V1 and V2 topography. Good quantitative agreement is obtained between the data and the model presented here. The increasing importance of fMRI-based brain imaging motivates the development of more sophisticated two-dimensional models of cortical visuotopy, in contrast to the one-dimensional approximations that have been in common use. One reason is that topography has traditionally supplied an important aspect of "ground truth", or validation, for brain imaging, suggesting that further development of high-resolution fMRI will be facilitated by this data analysis. In addition, several important insights into the nature of cortical topography follows from this work. The presence of anisotropy in cortical magnification factor is shown to follow mathematically from the shared boundary conditions at the V1-V2 and V2-V3 borders, and therefore may not causally follow from the existence of columnar systems in these areas, as is widely assumed. An application of the Wedge-Dipole model to localizing aspects of visual processing to specific cortical areas--extending previous work in correlating V1 cortical magnification factor to retinal anatomy or visual psychophysics data--is briefly discussed.

Emergence of Tri-Phasic Muscle Activation from the Non-linear Interactions of Central and Spinal Neural Network Circuits

The origin of the tri-phasic burst pattern, observed in the EMGs of opponent muscles during rapid self-terminated movements, has been controversial. Here we show by computer simulation that the pattern emerges from interactions between a central neural trajectory controller (VITE circuit) and a peripheral neuromuscularforce controller (FLETE circuit). Both neural models have been derived from simple functional constraints that have led to principled explanations of a wide variety of behavioral and neurobiological data, including, as shown here, the generation of tri-phasic bursts.

A Self-Organizing Neural Network Model for Redundant Sensory-Motor Control, Motor Equivalence, and Tool Use

A neural network is introduced which provides a solution of the classical motor equivalence problem, whereby many different joint configurations of a redundant manipulator can all be used to realize a desired trajectory in 3-D space. To do this, the network self-organizes a mapping from motion directions in 3-D space to velocity commands in joint space. Computer simulations demonstrate that, without any additional learning, the network can generate accurate movement commands that compensate for variable tool lengths, clamping of joints, distortions of visual input by a prism, and unexpected limb perturbations. Blind reaches have also been simulated.

Application of signal detection methods to fisheries management

The abundance of many commercially important fish stocks are declining and this has led to widespread concern on the performance of traditional approach in fisheries management. Quantitative models are used for obtaining estimates of population abundance and the management advice is based on annual harvest levels (TAC), where only a certain amount of catch is allowed from specific fish stocks. However, these models are data intensive and less useful when stocks have limited historical information. This study examined whether empirical stock indicators can be used to manage fisheries. The relationship between indicators and the underlying stock abundance is not direct and hence can be affected by disturbances that may account for both transient and persistent effects. Methods from Statistical Process Control (SPC) theory such as the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) control charts are useful in classifying these effects and hence they can be used to trigger management response only when a significant impact occurs to the stock biomass. This thesis explores how empirical indicators along with CUSUM can be used for monitoring, assessment and management of fish stocks. I begin my thesis by exploring various age based catch indicators, to identify those which are potentially useful in tracking the state of fish stocks. The sensitivity and response of these indicators towards changes in Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) showed that indicators based on age groups that are fully selected to the fishing gear or Large Fish Indicators (LFIs) are most useful and robust across the range of scenarios considered. The Decision-Interval (DI-CUSUM) and Self-Starting (SS-CUSUM) forms are the two types of control charts used in this study. In contrast to the DI-CUSUM, the SS-CUSUM can be initiated without specifying a target reference point (‘control mean’) to detect out-of-control (significant impact) situations. The sensitivity and specificity of SS-CUSUM showed that the performances are robust when LFIs are used. Once an out-of-control situation is detected, the next step is to determine how much shift has occurred in the underlying stock biomass. If an estimate of this shift is available, they can be used to update TAC by incorporation into Harvest Control Rules (HCRs). Various methods from Engineering Process Control (EPC) theory were tested to determine which method can measure the shift size in stock biomass with the highest accuracy. Results showed that methods based on Grubb’s harmonic rule gave reliable shift size estimates. The accuracy of these estimates can be improved by monitoring a combined indicator metric of stock-recruitment and LFI because this may account for impacts independent of fishing. The procedure of integrating both SPC and EPC is known as Statistical Process Adjustment (SPA). A HCR based on SPA was designed for DI-CUSUM and the scheme was successful in bringing out-of-control fish stocks back to its in-control state. The HCR was also tested using SS-CUSUM in the context of data poor fish stocks. Results showed that the scheme will be useful for sustaining the initial in-control state of the fish stock until more observations become available for quantitative assessments.

A new proposition on the martingale representation theorem and on the approximate hedging of contingent claim in mean-variance criterion

In this work we revisit the problem of the hedging of contingent claim using mean-square criterion. We prove that in incomplete market, some probability measure can be identified so that becomes -martingale under .This is in fact a new proposition on the martingale representation theorem. The new results also identify a weight function that serves to be an approximation to the Radon-Nikodým derivative of the unique neutral martingale measure.

Are mature smokers misinformed?

While there are many reasons to continue to smoke in spite of its consequences for health, the concern that many smoke because they misperceive the risks of smoking remains a focus of public discussion and motivates tobacco control policies and litigation. In this paper we investigate the relative accuracy of mature smokers' risk perceptions about future survival, and a range of morbidities and disabilities. Using data from the survey on smoking (SOS) conducted for this research, we compare subjective beliefs elicited from the SOS with corresponding individual-specific objective probabilities estimated from the health and retirement study. Overall, consumers in the age group studied, 50-70, are not overly optimistic in their perceptions of health risk. If anything, smokers tend to be relatively pessimistic about these risks. The finding that smokers are either well informed or pessimistic regarding a broad range of health risks suggests that these beliefs are not pivotal in the decision to continue smoking. Although statements by the tobacco companies may have been misleading and thus encouraged some to start smoking, we find no evidence that systematic misinformation about the health consequences of smoking inhibits quitting.

Migration and hedonic valuation: The case of air quality

Conventional hedonic techniques for estimating the value of local amenities rely on the assumption that households move freely among locations. We show that when moving is costly, the variation in housing prices and wages across locations may no longer reflect the value of differences in local amenities. We develop an alternative discrete-choice approach that models the household location decision directly, and we apply it to the case of air quality in US metro areas in 1990 and 2000. Because air pollution is likely to be correlated with unobservable local characteristics such as economic activity, we instrument for air quality using the contribution of distant sources to local pollution-excluding emissions from local sources, which are most likely to be correlated with local conditions. Our model yields an estimated elasticity of willingness to pay with respect to air quality of 0.34-0.42. These estimates imply that the median household would pay $149-$185 (in constant 1982-1984 dollars) for a one-unit reduction in average ambient concentrations of particulate matter. These estimates are three times greater than the marginal willingness to pay estimated by a conventional hedonic model using the same data. Our results are robust to a range of covariates, instrumenting strategies, and functional form assumptions. The findings also confirm the importance of instrumenting for local air pollution. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gender differences in the risk of HIV infection among persons reporting abstinence, monogamy, and multiple sexual partners in northern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Monogamy, together with abstinence, partner reduction, and condom use, is widely advocated as a key behavioral strategy to prevent HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the association between the number of sexual partners and the risk of HIV seropositivity among men and women presenting for HIV voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) in northern Tanzania. METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Clients presenting for HIV VCT at a community-based AIDS service organization in Moshi, Tanzania were surveyed between November 2003 and December 2007. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, reasons for testing, sexual behaviors, and symptoms were collected. Men and women were categorized by number of lifetime sexual partners, and rates of seropositivity were reported by category. Factors associated with HIV seropositivity among monogamous males and females were identified by a multivariate logistic regression model. Of 6,549 clients, 3,607 (55%) were female, and the median age was 30 years (IQR 24-40). 939 (25%) females and 293 (10%) males (p<0.0001) were HIV seropositive. Among 1,244 (34%) monogamous females and 423 (14%) monogamous males, the risk of HIV infection was 19% and 4%, respectively (p<0.0001). The risk increased monotonically with additional partners up to 45% (p<0.001) and 15% (p<0.001) for women and men, respectively with 5 or more partners. In multivariate analysis, HIV seropositivity among monogamous women was most strongly associated with age (p<0.0001), lower education (p<0.004), and reporting a partner with other partners (p = 0.015). Only age was a significant risk factor for monogamous men (p = 0.0004). INTERPRETATION: Among women presenting for VCT, the number of partners is strongly associated with rates of seropositivity; however, even women reporting lifetime monogamy have a high risk for HIV infection. Partner reduction should be coupled with efforts to place tools in the hands of sexually active women to reduce their risk of contracting HIV.

Man's search for meaning: The case of Legos

We investigate how perceived meaning influences labor supply. In a laboratory setting, we manipulate the perceived meaning of simple, repetitive tasks and find a strong influence on subjects' labor supply. Despite the fact that the wage and the task are identical across the conditions in each experiment, subjects in the less meaningful conditions exhibit reservation wages that are consistently much higher than the subjects in the more meaningful conditions. The result replicates across different types of tasks. Moreover, in the more meaningful conditions, subjects' productivity influences labor supply more strongly. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Carbon mitigation costs for the commercial building sector: Discrete-continuous choice analysis of multifuel energy demand

We estimate a carbon mitigation cost curve for the U.S. commercial sector based on econometric estimation of the responsiveness of fuel demand and equipment choices to energy price changes. The model econometrically estimates fuel demand conditional on fuel choice, which is characterized by a multinomial logit model. Separate estimation of end uses (e.g., heating, cooking) using the U.S. Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey allows for exceptionally detailed estimation of price responsiveness disaggregated by end use and fuel type. We then construct aggregate long-run elasticities, by fuel type, through a series of simulations; own-price elasticities range from -0.9 for district heat services to -2.9 for fuel oil. The simulations form the basis of a marginal cost curve for carbon mitigation, which suggests that a price of $20 per ton of carbon would result in an 8% reduction in commercial carbon emissions, and a price of $100 per ton would result in a 28% reduction. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Postoperative statin use and risk of biochemical recurrence following radical prostatectomy: results from the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of statin use after radical prostatectomy (RP) on biochemical recurrence (BCR) in patients with prostate cancer who never received statins before RP. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 1146 RP patients within the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to examine differences in risk of BCR between post-RP statin users vs nonusers. To account for varying start dates and duration of statin use during follow-up, post-RP statin use was treated as a time-dependent variable. In a secondary analysis, models were stratified by race to examine the association of post-RP statin use with BCR among black and non-black men. RESULTS: After adjusting for clinical and pathological characteristics, post-RP statin use was significantly associated with 36% reduced risk of BCR (hazard ratio [HR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47-0.87; P = 0.004). Post-RP statin use remained associated with reduced risk of BCR after adjusting for preoperative serum cholesterol levels. In secondary analysis, after stratification by race, this protective association was significant in non-black (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.32-0.75; P = 0.001) but not black men (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.53-1.28; P = 0.384). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective cohort of men undergoing RP, post-RP statin use was significantly associated with reduced risk of BCR. Whether the association between post-RP statin use and BCR differs by race requires further study. Given these findings, coupled with other studies suggesting that statins may reduce risk of advanced prostate cancer, randomised controlled trials are warranted to formally test the hypothesis that statins slow prostate cancer progression.