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Past and current climate change has already induced drastic biological changes. We need projections of how future climate change will further impact biological systems. Modeling is one approach to forecast future ecological impacts, but requires data for model parameterization. As collecting new data is costly, an alternative is to use the increasingly available georeferenced species occurrence and natural history databases. Here, we illustrate the use of such databases to assess climate change impacts on mountain flora. We show that these data can be used effectively to derive dynamic impact scenarios, suggesting upward migration of many species and possible extinctions when no suitable habitat is available at higher elevations. Systematically georeferencing all existing natural history collections data in mountain regions could allow a larger assessment of climate change impact on mountain ecosystems in Europe and elsewhere.

The future of leadership

The good news with regard to this (or any) chapter on the future of leadership is that there is one. There was a time when researchers called for a moratorium on new leadership theory and research (e.g., Miner, 1975) citing the uncertain future of the field. Then for a time there was a popular academic perspective that leadership did not really matter when it came to shaping organizational outcomes (Meindl & Ehrlich, 1987; Meindl, Ehrlich, & Dukerich, 1985; Pfeffer, 1977). That perspective was laid to rest by "realists" in the field (Day & Antonakis, 2012a) by means of empirical re-interpretation of the results used to support the position that leadership does not matter (Lieberson & O'Connor, 1972; Salancik & Pfeffer, 1977). Specifically, Day and Lord (1988) showed that when proper methodological concerns were addressed (e.g., controlling for industry and company size effects; incorporating appropriate time lags) that the impact of top-level leadership was considerable - explaining as much as 45% of the variance in measures of organizational performance. Despite some recent pessimistic sentiments about the "curiously unformed" state of leadership research and theory (Hackman & Wageman, 2007), others have argued that the field has continued to evolve and is potentially on the threshold of some significant breakthroughs (Day & Antonakis, 2012a). Leadership scholars have been re-energized by new directions in the field and research efforts have revitalized areas previously abandoned for apparent lack of consistency in findings (e.g., leadership trait theory). Our accumulated knowledge now allows us to explain the nature of leadership including its biological bases and other antecedents, and consequences with some degree of confidence. There are other comprehensive sources that review the extensive theoretical and empirical foundation of leadership (Bass, 2008; Day & Antonakis, 2012b) so that will not be the focus of the present chapter. Instead, we will take a future-oriented perspective in identifying particular areas within the leadership field that we believe offer promising perspectives on the future of leadership. Nonetheless, it is worthwhile as background to first provide an overview of how we see the leadership field changing over the past decade or so. This short chronicle will set the stage for a keener understanding of where the future contributions are likely to emerge. Overall, across nine major schools of leadership - trait, behavioural, contingency, contextual, relational, sceptics, information processing, New Leadership, biological and evolutionary - researchers have seen a resurgence in interest in one area, a high level of activity in at least four other areas, inactivity in three areas, and one that was modestly active in the previous decade but we think holds strong promise for the future (Gardner, Lowe, Moss, Mahoney, & Cogliser, 2010). We will next provide brief overviews of these nine schools and their respective levels of research activity (see Figure 1).

FROM TOTAL INSTITUTION TO EXTITUTION? Discussions on the future of monastic life in the Benedictine women’s monasteries of Catalonia (Spain

On the 50th anniversary of the creation of the Federation of Benedictine Women’s Monasteries of Catalonia (Spain), the five monasteries represented are discussing the following question: what will monastic life be like in the future? This question is added to the debate about “new forms of monasticism”, “urban monastic life” and, in a more general sense, to the modernisations and “the opening up” of the precepts and practices of monastic life at this time. Faced with the ambitious monastic questioning, the author responds with five deliberately provocative debates developed out of a consideration of various chapters of the Rule of St. Benedict that raise profound questions when it comes to responding to the question presented here. Having described these five debates, by way of a summary, the article presents three ideal types of monastery in relation to the current processes of deinstitutionalisation that represent, in an overall way, three provisional responses and serve as a focus for the question discussed here.

Building Iowa's Future, Board of Regents Annual Report, 2012

This report is the annual report for the Board of Regents.

Pensions and procrastination : how can employers help their employees save for the future?

In this paper I show that employees tend to procrastinate when they are expected to decide whether or not they would like to save using the defined contribution pension scheme offered by their employer. By auto-enrolling the employees or asking them to decide before a given deadline, employers can mitigate some of the problems caused by employee procrastination. However both of these mechanisms present their own problems, caused by default stickiness and other issues, so I discuss how employers can decide which is the right mechanism to use depending on the characteristics of their employees, and how to minimize the problems these mechanisms can cause.

FDNY Facing Future Challenges with ICS

View of Ground Zero showing destroyed buildings and those with major structural damage (viewed from southwest).

Simulation and Analysis of Arterial Traffic Operations Along the U.S. 61 Corridor in Burlington, Iowa, 1998

The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) used the traffic simulation model CORSIM to access proposed capacity and safety improvement strategies for the U.S. 61 corridor through Burlington, Iowa. The comparison between the base and alternative models allow for evaluation of the traffic flow performance under the existing conditions as well as other design scenarios. The models also provide visualization of performance for interpretation by technical staff, public policy makers, and the public. The objectives of this project are to evaluate the use of traffic simulation models for future use by the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) and to develop procedures for employing simulation modeling to conduct the analysis of alternative designs. This report presents both the findings of the U.S. 61 evaluation and an overview of model development procedures. The first part of the report includes the simulation modeling development procedures. The simulation analysis is illustrated through the Burlington U.S. 61 corridor case study application. Part I is not intended to be a user manual but simply introductory guidelines for traffic simulation modeling. Part II of the report evaluates the proposed improvement concepts in a side by side comparison of the base and alternative models.

Hyperuricaemia and gout: state of the art and future perspectives.

Major progress has been made in the past decade in understanding the pathogenesis and treatment of gout. These advances include identification of the genetic and environmental risk factors for gout, recognition that gout is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease, elucidation of the pathways regulating the acute gout attack and the development of novel therapeutic agents to treat both the acute and chronic phases of the disease. This review summarises these advances and highlights the research agenda for the next decade.

Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.