Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

Predicting spatial patterns of plant biodiversity : from species to communities

Understanding the distribution and composition of species assemblages and being able to predict them in space and time are highly important tasks io investigate the fate of biodiversity in the current global changes context. Species distribution models are tools that have proven useful to predict the potential distribution of species by relating their occurrences to environmental variables. Species assemblages can then be predicted by combining the prediction of individual species models. In the first part of my thesis, I tested the importance of new environmental predictors to improve species distribution prediction. I showed that edaphic variables, above all soil pH and nitrogen content could be important in species distribution models. In a second chapter, I tested the influence of different resolution of predictors on the predictive ability of species distribution models. I showed that fine resolution predictors could ameliorate the models for some species by giving a better estimation of the micro-topographic condition that species tolerate, but that fine resolution predictors for climatic factors still need to be ameliorated. The second goal of my thesis was to test the ability of empirical models to predict species assemblages' characteristics such as species richness or functional attributes. I showed that species richness could be modelled efficiently and that the resulting prediction gave a more realistic estimate of the number of species than when obtaining it by stacking outputs of single species distribution models. Regarding the prediction of functional characteristics (plant height, leaf surface, seed mass) of plant assemblages, mean and extreme values of functional traits were better predictable than indices reflecting the diversity of traits in the community. This approach proved interesting to understand which environmental conditions influence particular aspects of the vegetation functioning. It could also be useful to predict climate change impacts on the vegetation. In the last part of my thesis, I studied the capacity of stacked species distribution models to predict the plant assemblages. I showed that this method tended to over-predict the number of species and that the composition of the community was not predicted exactly either. Finally, I combined the results of macro- ecological models obtained in the preceding chapters with stacked species distribution models and showed that this approach reduced significantly the number of species predicted and that the prediction of the composition is also ameliorated in some cases. These results showed that this method is promising. It needs now to be tested on further data sets. - Comprendre la manière dont les plantes se répartissent dans l'environnement et s'organisent en communauté est une question primordiale dans le contexte actuel de changements globaux. Cette connaissance peut nous aider à sauvegarder la diversité des espèces et les écosystèmes. Des méthodes statistiques nous permettent de prédire la distribution des espèces de plantes dans l'espace géographique et dans le temps. Ces modèles de distribution d'espèces, relient les occurrences d'une espèce avec des variables environnementales pour décrire sa distribution potentielle. Cette méthode a fait ses preuves pour ce qui est de la prédiction d'espèces individuelles. Plus récemment plusieurs tentatives de cumul de modèles d'espèces individuelles ont été réalisées afin de prédire la composition des communautés végétales. Le premier objectif de mon travail est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution en testant l'importance de nouvelles variables prédictives. Parmi différentes variables édaphiques, le pH et la teneur en azote du sol se sont avérés des facteurs non négligeables pour prédire la distribution des plantes. Je démontre aussi dans un second chapitre que les prédicteurs environnementaux à fine résolution permettent de refléter les conditions micro-topographiques subies par les plantes mais qu'ils doivent encore être améliorés avant de pouvoir être employés de manière efficace dans les modèles. Le deuxième objectif de ce travail consistait à étudier le développement de modèles prédictifs pour des attributs des communautés végétales tels que, par exemple, la richesse en espèces rencontrée à chaque point. Je démontre qu'il est possible de prédire par ce biais des valeurs de richesse spécifiques plus réalistes qu'en sommant les prédictions obtenues précédemment pour des espèces individuelles. J'ai également prédit dans l'espace et dans le temps des caractéristiques de la végétation telles que sa hauteur moyenne, minimale et maximale. Cette approche peut être utile pour comprendre quels facteurs environnementaux promeuvent différents types de végétation ainsi que pour évaluer les changements à attendre au niveau de la végétation dans le futur sous différents régimes de changements climatiques. Dans une troisième partie de ma thèse, j'ai exploré la possibilité de prédire les assemblages de plantes premièrement en cumulant les prédictions obtenues à partir de modèles individuels pour chaque espèce. Cette méthode a le défaut de prédire trop d'espèces par rapport à ce qui est observé en réalité. J'ai finalement employé le modèle de richesse en espèce développé précédemment pour contraindre les résultats du modèle d'assemblage de plantes. Cela a permis l'amélioration des modèles en réduisant la sur-prédiction et en améliorant la prédiction de la composition en espèces. Cette méthode semble prometteuse mais de nouveaux tests sont nécessaires pour bien évaluer ses capacités.

Lutzomyia longipalpis abundance in the city of Posadas, northeastern Argentina: variations at different spatial scales

The distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis is heterogeneous with a pattern of high abundance areas (HAAs) embedded in a matrix of low abundance areas (LAAs). The objective of this study was to describe the variability in the abundance of Lu. longipalpis at two different spatial levels and to analyse the relationship between the abundance and multiple environmental variables. Of the environmental variables analysed in each household, the condition that best explained the differences in vector abundance between HAA-LAA was the variable "land_grass", with greater average values in the peridomestic environments within the LAA, and the variables "#sp tree", "#pots" and "dist_water" that were higher in the HAA. Of the environmental variables analysed in the patches, the variable "unpaved_streets" was higher in the LAAs and the variable "prop_inf_dogs" was higher in the HAAs. An understanding of the main environmental variables that influence the vector distribution could contribute to the development of strategies for the prevention and control of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). This is the first work in which environmental variables are analysed at the micro-scale in urban areas at the southern edge of the current range of Lu. longipalpis. Our results represent a significant contribution to the understanding of the abundance of the vector in the peridomestic habitats of the region.

Role of c-Myc in homeostasis of memory CD8 T cells

RESUME La mémoire immunologique est essentielle durant la vie et permet aux lymphocytes de répondre plus rapidement et efficacement lors d'une deuxième rencontre avec un antigène connu. Les facteurs contrôlant l'homéostasie des cellules T CD8 mémoires in vivo ne sont pas encore bien définis. Cependant, la prolifération homéostatique de ces cellules dans un hôte déplété en cellules hématopoietiques nécessite l'intéraction du TCR avec les molecules du MHC de class I du soi. De plus, le rôle de cytokines, telles que 1'IL-15 et l'IL-7, est essentiel dans ce mécanisme, aussi bien que dans la maintenance des cellules T CD8 mémoires. Puisque la protéine c-Myc - impliquée dans des mécanismes tells que la division, la prolifération, l'apoptose et la differentiation - a été définie comme étant impliquée dans la réponse à différentes cytokines, nous nous sommes intéressés à l'analyse de l'homéostasie des lymphocytes T CD8 mémoires dans des souris déficientes en c-Myc (c_rnycΔORF/+), qui expriment un niveau réduit de cette protéine. Bien que le développement des cellules T dans le thymus soit normal dans les souris c_rnycΔORF/+, nous avons observé une réduction de 2 à 3 fois dans la population des cellules T CD8 de phenotype mémoire (CD44+) dans les organes lymphoïdes de la périphérie de ces souris. Cette différence ne correspond pas à une réduction de prolifération ou d'expression de protéines de survie telles que Bel-2. Cependant, la prolifération homéostatique de cellules T CD8 c_rnycΔORF/+, mais pas T CD4 c_rnycΔORF/+, est reduite de manière dramatique lorsqu'elles sont transférées dans un hôte irradié. De plus, le transfert adoptif de lymphocytes T dans des souris irradiées déficientes en l'IL-15 nous a permis de montrer que la prolifération homéostatique dépendante de l'IL-15 des cellules T CD8 nécessite l'expression de c-Myc. De plus, contrairement aux cellules T CD8 CD44+ de type sauvage, nous avons observé que l'expansion induite par l'IL-15 des cellules T CD8 CD44+ c_rnycΔORF/+ est altérée aussi bien in vivo (en réponse à une injection de polyI:C) et in vitro. Par conséquent, nos résultats identifient c-Myc comme une nouvelle protéine régulatrice de la signalisation par l'IL-15 impliquée dans l'homéostasie des cellules T CD8 CD44+. SUMMARY Immunological memory is essential throughout life and allows memory lymphocytes to respond faster and more efficiently upon re-encounter of a known antigen. Factors controlling homeostasis of memory CD8 T cells under steady-state conditions in vivo are currently not well defined. However, the homeostatic proliferation of memory CD8 T cells in lymphopenic hosts requires the interaction of the TCR with self MHC class I molecules. In addition, cytokines, such as IL-15 and to a lesser extent IL-7, are essential for both homeostatic proliferation and maintenance of memory CD8 T cells. Since c-Myc, a proto-oncogene involved in cell division, proliferation, apoptosis and differentiation, has been widely implicated in responsiveness to cytokines, we were interested in analyzing homeostasis of memory CD8 T cells in c-myc hypomorph (c_rnycΔORF/+) mice, which express reduced levels of c-Myc. Although T cell development in the thymus was normal in c_rnycΔORF/+ mice, we found a selective 2- to 3-fold reduction in the memory-phenotype CD44high CD8 T cell population in the periphery. Reduced numbers of CD44high CD8 T cells did not correlate with decreased steady-state turnover rate or low expression of survival factors such as Bcl- 2. However, homeostatic proliferation of c_rnycΔORF/+ CD8 T cells, but not c_rnycΔORF/+ CD4 T cells, was dramatically reduced upon transfer into sublethally irradiated wild-type recipients. In addition, upon transfer of c_rnycΔORF/+ and c-myc WT cells into IL-15-/- mice, we observed that IL-15-induced homeostatic proliferation of CD8 T cells requires c-Myc. Moreover, in contrast to c-myc WT CD44high CD8 T cells, IL-15-induced expansion of c_rnycΔORF/+ CD44high CD8 T cells was strongly impaired both in vivo (in response to polyI:C injection) and in vitro. Collectively, our data identify c-Myc as a novel downstream regulator of IL-15 signaling involved in homeostasis of memory CD8 T cells.

Functional heterogeneity of memory CD4 T cell responses in different conditions of antigen exposure and persistence.

Memory CD4 T cell responses are functionally and phenotypically heterogeneous. In the present study, memory CD4 T cell responses were analyzed in different models of Ag-specific immune responses differing on Ag exposure and/or persistence. Ag-specific CD4 T cell responses for tetanus toxoid, HSV, EBV, CMV, and HIV-1 were compared. Three distinct patterns of T cell response were observed. A dominant single IL-2 CD4 T cell response was associated with the model in which the Ag can be cleared. Polyfunctional (single IL-2 plus IL-2/IFN-gamma plus single IFN-gamma) CD4 T cell responses were associated with Ag persistence and low Ag levels. A dominant single IFN-gamma CD4 T cell response was associated with the model of Ag persistence and high Ag levels. The results obtained supported the hypothesis that the different patterns observed were substantially influenced by different conditions of Ag exposure and persistence.

Desenvolupament d'algorismes biològicament inspirats basats en Support Vector Machines

L'objectiu d'aquest projecte ha estat el desenvolupament d'algorismes biològicament inspirats per a l'olfacció artificial. Per a assolir-lo ens hem basat en el paradigma de les màquines amb suport vectorial. Hem construit algoritmes que imitaven els processos computacionals dels diferents sistemes que formen el sistema olfactiu dels insectes, especialment de la llagosta Schistocerca gregaria. Ens hem centrat en el lòbuls de les antenes, i en el cos fungiforme. El primer està considerat un dispositiu de codificació de les olors, que a partir de la resposta temporal dels receptors olfactius a les antenes genera un patró d'activació espaial i temporal. Quant al cos fungiforme es considera que la seva funció és la d'una memòria per als olors, així com un centre per a la integració multi-sensorial. El primer pas ha estat la construcció de models detallats dels dos sistemes. A continuació, hem utilitzat aquests models per a processar diferents tipus de senyals amb l'objectiu de abstraure els principis computacionals subjacents. Finalment, hem avaluat les capacitats d'aquests models abstractes, i els hem utilitzat per al processat de dades provinents de sensors de gasos. Els resultats mostren que el models abstractes tenen millor comportament front el soroll i més capacitat d'emmagatzematge de records que altres models més clàssics, com ara les memòries associatives de Hopfield o fins i tot en determinades circumstàncies que les mateixes Support Vector Machines.

Spatial and temporal changes in Lutzomyia longipalpis abundance, a Leishmania infantum vector in an urban area in northeastern Argentina

This study aimed to analyse changes in the spatial distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Posadas, an urban area located in northeastern Argentina. Data were obtained during the summer of 2007 and 2009 through two entomological surveys of peridomiciles distributed around the city. The abundance distribution pattern for 2009 was computed and compared with the previous pattern obtained in 2007, when the first human visceral leishmaniasis cases were reported in the city. Vector abundance was also examined in relation to micro and macrohabitat characteristics. In 2007 and 2009, Lu. longipalpis was distributed among 41.5% and 31% of the households in the study area, respectively. In both years, the abundance rates at most of the trapping sites were below 30 Lu. longipalpis per trap per night; however, for areas exhibiting 30-60 Lu. longipalpis and more than 60 Lu. longipalpis, the areas increased in both size and number from 2007-2009. Lu. longipalpis was more abundant in areas with a higher tree and bush cover (a macrohabitat characteristic) and in peridomiciles with accumulated unused material (a microhabitat characteristic). These results will help to prioritise and focus control efforts by defining which peridomiciles display a potentially high abundance of Lu. longipalpis.

Investigation of memory, executive functions, and anatomic correlates in asymptomatic FMR1 premutation carriers.

Fragile X-associated tremor/ataxia syndrome (FXTAS) is a late-onset movement disorder associated with FMR1 premutation alleles. Asymptomatic premutation (aPM) carriers have preserved cognitive functions, but they present subtle executive deficits. Current efforts are focusing on the identification of specific cognitive markers that can detect aPM carriers at higher risk of developing FXTAS. This study aims at evaluating verbal memory and executive functions as early markers of disease progression while exploring associated brain structure changes using diffusion tensor imaging. We assessed 30 aPM men and 38 intrafamilial controls. The groups perform similarly in the executive domain except for decreased performance in motor planning in aPM carriers. In the memory domain, aPM carriers present a significant decrease in verbal encoding and retrieval. Retrieval is associated with microstructural changes of the white matter (WM) of the left hippocampal fimbria. Encoding is associated with changes in the WM under the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, a region implicated in relational memory encoding. These associations were found in the aPM group only and did not show age-related decline. This may be interpreted as a neurodevelopmental effect of the premutation, and longitudinal studies are required to better understand these mechanisms.

Decreased memory T-cell response and function in human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients with tegumentary leishmaniasis

The effects of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) on the immune response in patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis have not yet been fully delineated. This study quantified and evaluated the function of memory T-cell subsets in response to soluble Leishmania antigens (SLA) from patients coinfected with HIV and Leishmania with tegumentary leishmaniasis (TL). Eight TL/HIV coinfected subjects and 10 HIV seronegative subjects with TL were evaluated. The proliferative response of CD4+and CD8+T-cells and naïve, central memory (CM) and effector memory (EM) CD4+T-cells in response to SLA were quantified using flow cytometry. The median cell division indices for CD4+and CD8+T-cells of coinfected patients in response to SLA were significantly lower than those in patients with Leishmania monoinfection (p < 0.05). The proportions of CM and EM CD4+T-cells in response to SLA were similar between the coinfected patients and patients with Leishmania monoinfection. However, the median CM and EM CD4+T-cell counts from coinfected patients were significantly lower (p < 0.05). The reduction in the lymphoproliferative response to Leishmaniaantigens coincides with the decrease in the absolute numbers of both EM and CM CD4+T-cells in response to Leishmania antigens in patients coinfected with HIV/Leishmania.

Kuku Memory, un videojoc per exercitar la memòria a dispositius iOS

Aquest document descriu el procés de creació de Kuku Memory, un videojoc per exercitar la memòria a dispositius iOS.

What spatial data do we need to develop global mammal conservation strategies?

Spatial data on species distributions are available in two main forms, point locations and distribution maps (polygon ranges and grids). The first are often temporally and spatially biased, and too discontinuous, to be useful (untransformed) in spatial analyses. A variety of modelling approaches are used to transform point locations into maps. We discuss the attributes that point location data and distribution maps must satisfy in order to be useful in conservation planning. We recommend that before point location data are used to produce and/or evaluate distribution models, the dataset should be assessed under a set of criteria, including sample size, age of data, environmental/geographical coverage, independence, accuracy, time relevance and (often forgotten) representation of areas of permanent and natural presence of the species. Distribution maps must satisfy additional attributes if used for conservation analyses and strategies, including minimizing commission and omission errors, credibility of the source/assessors and availability for public screening. We review currently available databases for mammals globally and show that they are highly variable in complying with these attributes. The heterogeneity and weakness of spatial data seriously constrain their utility to global and also sub-global scale conservation analyses.

Land use improves spatial predictions of mountain plant abundance but not presence-absence

Question Does a land-use variable improve spatial predictions of plant species presence-absence and abundance models at the regional scale in a mountain landscape? Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Presence-absence generalized linear models (GLM) and abundance ordinal logistic regression models (LRM) were fitted to data on 78 mountain plant species, with topo-climatic and/or land-use variables available at a 25-m resolution. The additional contribution of land use when added to topo-climatic models was evaluated by: (1) assessing the changes in model fit and (2) predictive power, (3) partitioning the deviance respectively explained by the topo-climatic variables and the land-use variable through variation partitioning, and (5) comparing spatial projections. Results Land use significantly improved the fit of presence-absence models but not their predictive power. In contrast, land use significantly improved both the fit and predictive power of abundance models. Variation partitioning also showed that the individual contribution of land use to the deviance explained by presence-absence models was, on average, weak for both GLM and LRM (3.7% and 4.5%, respectively), but changes in spatial projections could nevertheless be important for some species. Conclusions In this mountain area and at our regional scale, land use is important for predicting abundance, but not presence-absence. The importance of adding land-use information depends on the species considered. Even without a marked effect on model fit and predictive performance, adding land use can affect spatial projections of both presence-absence and abundance models.