The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies

Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenarios were derived from ten regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project. Their respective temperature and precipitation changes between the scenario period (2074–2095) and the control period (1984–2005) were used to run a hydrological model. The relative importance of each of the three types of scenarios (climate, glacier, forest) was assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA). Altogether, 15 mountainous catchments in Switzerland were analysed, exhibiting different degrees of glaciation during the control period (0–51%) and different degrees of forest cover increase under scenarios of change (12–55% of the catchment area). The results show that even an extreme change in forest cover is negligible with respect to changes in runoff, but it is crucial as soon as changes in evaporation or soil moisture are concerned. For the latter two variables, the relative impact of forest change is proportional to the magnitude of its change. For changes that concern 35% of the catchment area or more, the effect of forest change on summer evapotranspiration is equally or even more important than the climate signal. For catchments with a glaciation of 10% or more in the control period, the glacier retreat significantly determines summer and annual runoff. The most important source of uncertainty in this study, though, is the climate scenario and it is highly recommended to apply an ensemble of climate scenarios in the impact studies. The results presented here are valid for the climatic region they were tested for, i.e., a humid, mid-latitude mountainous environment. They might be different for regions where the evaporation is a major component of the water balance, for example. Nevertheless, a hydrological climate-impact study that assesses the additional impacts of forest and glacier change is new so far and provides insight into the question whether or not it is necessary to account for land cover changes as part of climate change impacts on hydrological systems.

Floods of the Upper Danube River and Its Tributaries and Their Impact on Urban Economies (c. 1350–1600): The Examples of the Towns of Krems/Stein and Wels (Austria)

This paper examines the impact of disastrous and ‘ordinary’ floods on human societies in what is now Austria. The focus is on urban areas and their neighbourhoods. Examining institutional sources such as accounts of the bridge masters, charters, statutes and official petitions, it can be shown that city communities were well acquainted with this permanent risk: in fact, an office was established for the restoration of bridges and the maintenance of water defences and large depots for timber and water pipes ensured that the reconstruction of bridges and the system of water supply could start immediately after the floods had subsided. Carpenters and similar groups gained 10 to 20 per cent of their income from the repair of bridges and other flood damage. The construction of houses in endangered zones was adapted in order to survive the worst case experiences. Thus, we may describe those communities living along the central European rivers as ‘cultures of flood management’. This special knowledge vanished, however, from the mid-nineteenth century onwards, when river regulations gave the people a false feeling of security.

Clinical Proton MR Spectroscopy in Central Nervous System Disorders.

A large body of published work shows that proton (hydrogen 1 [(1)H]) magnetic resonance (MR) spectroscopy has evolved from a research tool into a clinical neuroimaging modality. Herein, the authors present a summary of brain disorders in which MR spectroscopy has an impact on patient management, together with a critical consideration of common data acquisition and processing procedures. The article documents the impact of (1)H MR spectroscopy in the clinical evaluation of disorders of the central nervous system. The clinical usefulness of (1)H MR spectroscopy has been established for brain neoplasms, neonatal and pediatric disorders (hypoxia-ischemia, inherited metabolic diseases, and traumatic brain injury), demyelinating disorders, and infectious brain lesions. The growing list of disorders for which (1)H MR spectroscopy may contribute to patient management extends to neurodegenerative diseases, epilepsy, and stroke. To facilitate expanded clinical acceptance and standardization of MR spectroscopy methodology, guidelines are provided for data acquisition and analysis, quality assessment, and interpretation. Finally, the authors offer recommendations to expedite the use of robust MR spectroscopy methodology in the clinical setting, including incorporation of technical advances on clinical units. © RSNA, 2014 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Investigation on the evolution of an indoor robotic localization system based on wireless networks

This work addresses the evolution of an artificial neural network (ANN) to assist in the problem of indoor robotic localization. We investigate the design and building of an autonomous localization system based on information gathered from wireless networks (WN). The article focuses on the evolved ANN, which provides the position of a robot in a space, as in a Cartesian coordinate system, corroborating with the evolutionary robotic research area and showing its practical viability. The proposed system was tested in several experiments, evaluating not only the impact of different evolutionary computation parameters but also the role of the transfer functions on the evolution of the ANN. Results show that slight variations in the parameters lead to significant differences on the evolution process and, therefore, in the accuracy of the robot position.

Impact of environmental estrogens on Yfish considering the diversity of estrogen signaling.

Research on endocrine disruption in fish has been dominated by studies on estrogen-active compounds which act as mimics of the natural estrogen, 17β-estradiol (E2), and generally exert their biological actions by binding to and activation of estrogen receptors (ERs). Estrogens play central roles in reproductive physiology and regulate (female) sexual differentiation. In line with this, most adverse effects reported for fish exposed to environmental estrogens relate to sexual differentiation and reproduction. E2, however, utilizes a variety of signaling mechanisms, has multifaceted functions and targets, and therefore the toxicological and ecological effects of environmental estrogens in fish will extend beyond those associated with the reproduction. This review first describes the diversity of estrogen receptor signaling in fish, including both genomic and non-genomic mechanisms, and receptor crosstalk. It then considers the range of non-reproductive physiological processes in fish that are known to be responsive to estrogens, including sensory systems, the brain, the immune system, growth, specifically through the growth hormone/insulin-like growth factor system, and osmoregulation. The diversity in estrogen responses between fish species is then addressed, framed within evolutionary and ecological contexts, and we make assessments on their relevance for toxicological sensitivity as well as ecological vulnerability. The diversity of estrogen actions raises questions whether current risk assessment strategies, which focus on reproductive endpoints, and a few model fish species only, are protective of the wider potential health effects of estrogens. Available - although limited - evidence nevertheless suggests that quantitative environmental threshold concentrations for environmental protection derived from reproductive tests with model fish species are protective for non-reproductive effects as well. The diversity of actions of estrogens across divergent physiological systems, however, may lead to and underestimation of impacts on fish populations as their effects are generally considered on one functional process only and this may underrepresent the impact on the different physiological processes collectively.

Economic efficiency analysis of different strategies to control post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection in 3-weekly batch system farms.

The study assessed the economic efficiency of different strategies for the control of post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection (PCV2SI), which have a major economic impact on the pig farming industry worldwide. The control strategies investigated consisted on the combination of up to 5 different control measures. The control measures considered were: (1) PCV2 vaccination of piglets (vac); (2) ensuring age adjusted diet for growers (diets); (3) reduction of stocking density (stock); (4) improvement of biosecurity measures (bios); and (5) total depopulation and repopulation of the farm for the elimination of other major pathogens (DPRP). A model was developed to simulate 5 years production of a pig farm with a 3-weekly batch system and with 100 sows. A PMWS/PCV2SI disease and economic model, based on PMWS severity scores, was linked to the production model in order to assess disease losses. This PMWS severity scores depends on the combination post-weaning mortality, PMWS morbidity in younger pigs and proportion of PCV2 infected pigs observed on farms. The economic analysis investigated eleven different farm scenarios, depending on the number of risk factors present before the intervention. For each strategy, an investment appraisal assessed the extra costs and benefits of reducing a given PMWS severity score to the average score of a slightly affected farm. The net present value obtained for each strategy was then multiplied by the corresponding probability of success to obtain an expected value. A stochastic simulation was performed to account for uncertainty and variability. For moderately affected farms PCV2 vaccination alone was the most cost-efficient strategy, but for highly affected farms it was either PCV2 vaccination alone or in combination with biosecurity measures, with the marginal profitability between 'vac' and 'vac+bios' being small. Other strategies such as 'diets', 'vac+diets' and 'bios+diets' were frequently identified as the second or third best strategy. The mean expected values of the best strategy for a moderately and a highly affected farm were £14,739 and £57,648 after 5 years, respectively. This is the first study to compare economic efficiency of control strategies for PMWS and PCV2SI. The results demonstrate the economic value of PCV2 vaccination, and highlight that on highly affected farms biosecurity measures are required to achieve optimal profitability. The model developed has potential as a farm-level decision support tool for the control of this economically important syndrome.

The Aeromonas salmonicida subsp. salmonicida exoproteome: determination of the complete repertoire of Type-Three Secretion System effectors and identification of other virulence factors

BACKGROUND Aeromonas salmonicida subsp. salmonicida, the etiologic agent of furunculosis, is a major pathogen of fisheries worldwide. Several virulence factors have been described, but the type-three secretion system (T3SS) is recognized as having a major effect on virulence by injecting effectors directly into fish cells. In this study we used high-throughput proteomics to display the differences between in vitro secretome of A. salmonicida wild-type (wt, hypervirulent, JF2267) and T3SS-deficient (isogenic ΔascV, extremely low-virulent, JF2747) strains in exponential and stationary phases of growth. RESULTS Results confirmed the secretion of effectors AopH, AexT, AopP and AopO via T3SS, and for the first time demonstrated the impact of T3SS in secretion of Ati2, AopN and ExsE that are known as effectors in other pathogens. Translocators, needle subunits, Ati1, and AscX were also secreted in supernatants (SNs) dependent on T3SS. AopH, Ati2, AexT, AopB and AopD were in the top seven most abundant excreted proteins. EF-G, EF-Tu, DnaK, HtpG, PNPase, PepN and MdeA were moderately secreted in wt SNs and predicted to be putative T3 effectors by bioinformatics. Pta and ASA_P5G088 were increased in wt SNs and T3-associated in other bacteria. Ten conserved cytoplasmic proteins were more abundant in wt SNs than in the ΔascV mutant, but without any clear association to a secretion system. T1-secreted proteins were predominantly found in wt SNs: OmpAI, OmpK40, DegQ, insulinase ASA_0716, hypothetical ASA_0852 and ASA_3619. Presence of T3SS components in pellets was clearly decreased by ascV deletion, while no impact was observed on T1- and T2SS. Our results demonstrated that the ΔascV mutant strain excreted well-described (VapA, AerA, AerB, GCAT, Pla1, PlaC, TagA, Ahe2, GbpA and enolase) and yet uncharacterized potential toxins, adhesins and enzymes as much as or even more than the wt strain. Other putative important virulence factors were not detected. CONCLUSIONS We demonstrated the whole in vitro secretome and T3SS repertoire of hypervirulent A. salmonicida. Several toxins, adhesins and enzymes that are not part of the T3SS secretome were secreted to a higher extent in the extremely low-virulent ΔascV mutant. All together, our results show the high importance of an intact T3SS to initiate the furunculosis and offer new information about the pathogenesis.

Impact of dams, dam removal and dam-related river engineering structures on sediment connectivity and channel morphology of the Fugnitz and the Kaja Rivers

In terms of changing flow and sediment regimes of rivers, dams are often regarded as the most dominant form of human impact on fluvial systems. Dams can decrease the flux of water and sediments leading to channel changes such as upstream aggradation and downstream degradation. The opposite effects occur when dams are removed. Channel degradation often requires further intervention in terms of river bed and bank protection works. The situation evolves more complex in river systems that are impacted by a series of dams due to feedback processes between the different system compartments. A number of studies have recently investigated geomorphic systems using connectivity approaches to improve the understanding of geomorphic system response to change. This paper presents a case study investigating the impact of dam construction, dam removal and dam-related river bed and bank protection measures on the sediment connectivity and channel morphology of the Fugnitz and the Kaja Rivers using a combination of DEM analyses, field surveys and landscape evolution modelling. For both river systems the results revealed low sediment connectivity accompanied by a fine river bed sediment facies in river sections upstream of active dams and of removed dams with protection measures. Contrarily, high sediment connectivity which was accompanied by a coarse river bed sediment facies was observed in river sections either located downstream of active dams or of removed dams with upstream protection. In terms of channel changes, significant channel degradation was examined at locations downstream of active dams and of removed dams. Channel bed and bank protection measures prevent erosion and channel slope recovery after dam removal. Landscape evolution modeling revealed a complex geomorphic response to dam construction and dam removal as sediment output rates and therefore geomorphic processes have been shown to act in a non-linear manner. These insights are deemed to have major implications for river management and conservation, as quality and state of riverine habitats are determined by channel morphology and river bed sediment composition.

Impact of medications prescribed for treatment of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder on physical growth in children and adolescents with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationships between physical growth and medications prescribed for symptoms of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder in children with HIV. METHODS: Analysis of data from children with perinatally acquired HIV (N = 2251; age 3-19 years), with and without prescriptions for stimulant and nonstimulant medications used to treat attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, in a long-term observational study. Height and weight measurements were transformed to z scores and compared across medication groups. Changes in z scores during a 2-year interval were compared using multiple linear regression models adjusting for selected covariates. RESULTS: Participants with (n = 215) and without (n = 2036) prescriptions were shorter than expected based on US age and gender norms (p < .001). Children without prescriptions weighed less at baseline than children in the general population (p < .001) but gained height and weight at a faster rate (p < .001). Children prescribed stimulants were similar to population norms in baseline weight; their height and weight growth velocities were comparable with the general population and children without prescriptions (for weight, p = .511 and .100, respectively). Children prescribed nonstimulants had the lowest baseline height but were similar to population norms in baseline weight. Their height and weight growth velocities were comparable with the general population but significantly slower than children without prescriptions (p = .01 and .02, respectively). CONCLUSION: The use of stimulants to treat symptoms of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder does not significantly exacerbate the potential for growth delay in children with HIV and may afford opportunities for interventions that promote physical growth. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Clinical Impact of Couch Top and Rails on IMRT and Arc Therapy

Purpose: To evaluate the clinical impact of the Varian Exact Couch on dose and volume coverage to targets and critical structures and tumor control probability (TCP) for 6-MV IMRT and Arc Therapy. Methods: Five clinical prostate patients were planned with both, 6-MV 8-field IMRT and 6-MV 2-field RapidArc using the Eclipse treatment planning system (TPS). These plans neglected treatment couch attenuation, as is standard clinical practice. Dose distributions were then recalculated in Eclipse with the inclusion of the Varian Exact Couch (imaging couch top) and the rails in varying configurations. The changes in dose and coverage were evaluated using the DVHs from each plan iteration. We used a tumor control probability (TCP) model to calculate losses in tumor control resulting from not accounting for the couch top and rails. We also verified dose measurements in a phantom. Results: Failure to account for the treatment couch and rails resulted in clinically unacceptable dose and volume coverage losses to the target for both IMRT and RapidArc. The couch caused average dose losses (relative to plans that ignored the couch) to the prostate of 4.2% and 2.0% for IMRT with the rails out and in, respectively, and 3.2% and 2.9% for RapidArc with the rails out and in, respectively. On average, the percentage of the target covered by the prescribed dose dropped to 35% and 84% for IMRT (rails out and in, respectively) and to 18% and 17% for RapidArc (rails out and in, respectively). The TCP was also reduced by as much as 10.5% (6.3% on average). Dose and volume coverage losses for IMRT plans were primarily due to the rails, while the imaging couch top contributed most to losses for RapidArc. Both the couch top and rails contribute to dose and coverage losses that can render plans clinically unacceptable. A follow-up study we performed found that the less attenuating unipanel mesh couch top available with the Varian Exact couch does not cause a clinically impactful loss of dose or coverage for IMRT but still causes an unacceptable loss for RapidArc. Conclusions: Both the imaging couch top and rails contribute to dose and coverage loss to a degree that, if included, would prevent the plan from meeting clinical planning criteria. Therefore, the imaging and mesh couch tops and rails should be accounted for in Arc Therapy and the imaging couch and rails only in IMRT treatment planning.

Cytochrome P450 in mammalian brain: Purification, anatomical distribution and regulation of the cytochrome P450 monooxygenase system in rat brain

The cytochrome P450 (P450) monooxygenase system plays a major role in metabolizing a wide variety of xenobiotic as well as endogenous compounds. In performing this function, it serves to protect the body from foreign substances. However, in a number of cases, P450 activates procarcinogens to cause harm. In most animals, the highest level of activity is found in the liver. Virtually all tissues demonstrate P450 activity, though, and the role of the P450 monooxygenase system in these other organs is not well understood. In this project I have studied the P450 system in rat brain; purifying NADPH-cytochrome P450 reductase (reductase) from that tissue. In addition, I have examined the distribution and regulation of expression of reductase and P450 in various anatomical regions of the rat brain.^ NADPH-cytochrome P450 reductase was purified to apparent homogeneity and cytochrome P450 partially purified from whole rat brain. Purified reductase from brain was identical to liver P450 reductase by SDS-PAGE and Western blot techniques. Kinetic studies utilizing cerebral P450 reductase reveal Km values in close agreement with those determined with enzyme purified from rat liver. Moreover, the brain P450 reductase was able to function successfully in a reconstituted microsomal system with partially purified brain cytochrome P450 and with purified hepatic P4501A1 as measured by 7-ethoxycoumarin and 7-ethoxyresorufin O-deethylation. These results indicate that the reductase and P450 components may interact to form a competent drug metabolism system in brain tissue.^ Since the brain is not a homogeneous organ, dependent upon the well orchestrated interaction of numerous parts, pathology in one nucleus may have a large impact upon its overall function. Hence, the anatomical distribution of the P450 monooxygenase system in brain is important in elucidating its function in that organ. Related to this is the regulation of P450 expression in brain. In order to study these issues female rats--both ovariectomized and not--were treated with a number of xenobiotic compounds and sex steroids. The brains from these animals were dissected into 8 discrete regions and the presence and relative level of message for P4502D and reductase determined using polymerase chain reaction. Results of this study indicate the presence of mRNA for reductase and P4502D isoforms throughout the rat brain. In addition, quantitative PCR has allowed the determination of factors affecting the expression of message for these enzymes. ^

Contribution of the genes of the renin-angiotensin system to interindividual differences in blood pressure levels in Caucasians from Rochester, Minnesota

The Renin-Angiotensin system (RAS) regulates blood pressure through its effects on vascular tone, renal hemodynamics, and renal sodium and fluid balance. The genes encoding the four major components of the RAS, angiotensinogen, renin, angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE), and angiotensin II receptor type 1 (AT1), have been investigated as candidate genes in the pathogenesis of essential hypertension. However, studies have primarily focused on small samples of diseased individuals, and, therefore, have provided little information about the determinants of interindividual variation in blood pressure (BP) in the general population.^ Using data from a large population-based sample from Rochester, MN, I have evaluated the contribution of variation in the region of the RAS genes to interindividual variation in systolic, diastolic, and mean arterial pressure in the population-at-large. Marker genotype data from four polymorphisms located within or very near these genes were first collected on 3,974 individuals from 583 randomly ascertained three-generation pedigrees. Haseman-Elston regression and variance component methods of linkage analysis were then carried out to estimate the proportion of interindividual variance in BP attributable to the effects of variation at these four measured loci.^ A significant effect of the ACE locus on interindividual variation in mean arterial pressure (MAP) was detected in a sample of siblings belonging to the youngest generation. After allowing for measured covariates, this effect accounted for 15-25% of the interindividual variance in MAP, and was even greater in a subset with a positive family history of hypertension. When gender-specific analyses were carried out, this effect was significant in males but not in females. Extended pedigree analyses also provided evidence for an effect of the ACE locus on interindividual variation in MAP, but no difference between males and females was observed. Circumstantial evidence suggests that the ACE gene itself may be responsible for the observed effects on BP, although the possibility that other genes in the region may be at play cannot be excluded.^ No definitive evidence for an effect of the renin, angiotensinogen, or AT1 loci on interindividual variation in BP was obtained in this study, suggesting that the impact of these genes on BP may not be great in the Caucasian population-at-large. However, this does not preclude a larger effect of these genes in some subsets of individuals, especially among those with clinically manifest hypertension or coronary heart disease, or in other populations. ^

An evaluation of the personal response system program for the elderly in Harris County, Texas

The Personal Response System Program at Huffington Center on Aging, Baylor College of Medicine, provides emergency call systems for elderly people living independently in Houston, Texas. The goal of the project was to complete a formative evaluation of the Personal Response System Program. The specific aims of the evaluation were three-fold. One aim was to evaluate participant health status and level of disability. The second aim was to develop a health care cost estimation strategy. Finally, a preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis was completed to evaluate the program's impact on health care costs and health status among the elderly target population. ^ The evaluation was a longitudinal, randomized experimental design. After the screening of 120 volunteers for eligibility, clients were asked to complete a written questionnaire and a monthly health service contact diary. Volunteers were contacted by telephone interviewers to collect health status information from 100 eligible clients (83%) on three occasions during the six months of follow-up. ^ Initially, volunteers were randomized to two experimental groups. The two groups were found to be comparable at the beginning of the study. No significant differences were detected related to health status, level of disability, or history of physician visits at baseline. However, the group with the Personal Response System (PRS) device had more adverse health events, higher IADL scores, more frequent use of walkers, lower average health status scores, and fewer community volunteers hours than the usual care comparison group. ^ The health care costs were estimated based on an algorithm adapted from the American Medical Association guidelines. Average total health care costs for the group with the PRS device ($912) were greater than the usual care group ($464). However, median health care values for the PRS group ($263) were similar to the usual care comparison group ($234). The preliminary findings indicated that the use of the PRS device was not associated with health care cost savings. ^ In the preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis, use of the personal response system was found to be associated with increased mental health status among elderly clients. The cost-effectiveness evaluation indicated that the associated cost for six months was $710 per unit increase in mental component score when the $150 PRS subscription was included. However, clients with the PRS device were found to have a greater decline in physical health status during the six-month follow-up. The beneficial effect on mental health status was found to be in contrast to negative findings associated with changes in physical health status. The implications for future research relate to the need to identify risk factors among geriatric populations to better target groups that would most likely benefit from PRS Program enrollment. ^

State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate System

This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between similar to 6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200-1000 years ago. Following the last of these is a period of major trans-Antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between A. D. 1700 and 1850. The two earlier Antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. Improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Special attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. Significant regional climate changes have taken place in the Antarctic during the past 50 years. Atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the Antarctic Peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. Glaciers are retreating on the peninsula, in Patagonia, on the sub-Antarctic islands, and in West Antarctica adjacent to the peninsula. The penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of West Antarctica. Above the surface, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled year-round. The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, Antarctic Bottom Water across a wide sector off East Antarctica has freshened, and the densest bottom water in the Weddell Sea has warmed. In contrast to these regional climate changes, over most of Antarctica, near-surface temperature and snowfall have not increased significantly during at least the past 50 years, and proxy data suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the interior has remained in a similar state for at least the past 200 years. Furthermore, the total sea ice cover around Antarctica has exhibited no significant overall change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but compensating regional changes. The inhomogeneity of Antarctic climate in space and time implies that recent Antarctic climate changes are due on the one hand to a combination of strong multidecadal variability and anthropogenic effects and, as demonstrated by the paleoclimate record, on the other hand to multidecadal to millennial scale and longer natural variability forced through changes in orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, solar variability, ice dynamics, and aerosols. Model projections suggest that over the 21st century the Antarctic interior will warm by 3.4 degrees +/- 1 degrees C, and sea ice extent will decrease by similar to 30%. Ice sheet models are not yet adequate enough to answer pressing questins about the effect of projected warming on mass balance and sea level. Considering the potentially major impacts of a warming climate on Antarctica, vigorous efforts are needed to better understand all aspects of the highly coupled Antarctic climate system as well as its influence on the Earth's climate and oceans.

Microbial-immune cross-talk and regulation of the immune system

We are all born germ-free. Following birth we enter into a lifelong relationship with microbes residing on our body's surfaces. The lower intestine is home to the highest microbial density in our body, which is also the highest microbial density known on Earth (up to 10(12) /g of luminal contents). With our indigenous microbial cells outnumbering our human cells by an order of magnitude our body is more microbial than human. Numerous immune adaptations confine these microbes within the mucosa, enabling most of us to live in peaceful homeostasis with our intestinal symbionts. Intestinal epithelial cells not only form a physical barrier between the bacteria-laden lumen and the rest of the body but also function as multi-tasking immune cells that sense the prevailing microbial (apical) and immune (basolateral) milieus, instruct the underlying immune cells, and adapt functionally. In the constant effort to ensure intestinal homeostasis, the immune system becomes educated to respond appropriately and in turn immune status can shape the microbial consortia. Here we review how the dynamic immune-microbial dialogue underlies maturation and regulation of the immune system and discuss recent findings on the impact of diet on both microbial ecology and immune function.