Turkey votes: Part III - President Erdoğan - A foregone conclusion? EPC Commentary, 10 July 2014

On 1 July, after months of speculation, Turkey’s Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, announced he would run in the country’s first direct presidential elections on 10 August. Erdoğan, who has dominated Turkish politics for over a decade, is viewed as the clear favourite. With current polls suggesting he could take as much as 52% of the vote, an outright victory in the first round is possible. His main rival, Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu, is very much the underdog. Until recently, an international diplomat with no experience in politics, he is the joint candidate of Turkey’s two main opposition parties, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). Selahattin Demirtaş, the Co-Chairman of the Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party (HDP) is also in the race, but is not expected to make it into double digits. The Kurdish vote however, could prove to be crucial if the ballot goes to a second round on 24 August. With Erdoğan wanting to increase Presidential powers, the stakes are high. With his belief in majoritarian rule, and increasingly authoritarian style of governance there has been an erosion of democracy and civil liberties. Many observers fear this trend may increase.

Turkey after the start of negotiations with the European Union - foreign relations and the domestic situation, Part II. OSW Report, July 2008

The Centre for Eastern Studies has decided to embark on the project entitled 'Turkey after the start of negotiations with the European Union - foreign relations and the domestic situation' for two major reasons: the start of the accession negotiations between Ankara and the European Union in October 2005, and the significant part which Turkey plays in western Eurasia (the Caucasus, the countries in the basins of the Black and Caspian Seas, the Middle East and the Balkans) which We wish to present our readers our second report discussing Turkey's relations with Central Asia, the Caucasus and Russia, the aspect of Turkish foreign policy regarding the Black Sea, and the role of Turkey as a transit country for oil and gas from the Middle East and the Caspian regions. The evaluation of Turkey's standpoint and potential regarding the aforementioned issues is especially important, considering the tensions existing in Turkey's relations with the EU and the USA, as well as the West's increasing engagement in the Caucasus, Central Asia and Black Sea regions. In this process, Ankara may play the role of a significant ally for the West. However, it may just as readily play the role of its rival, who could co-operate with other countries and may seriously frustrate the implementation of the EU and US' goals. The Report was developed between autumn 2006 and autumn 2007, over which time the project participants searched for publicly available documents in Poland, Turkey, EU countries and the USA, and went on five research trips to Central Asia, Russia, Turkey and Caucasus, where they met local analysts, officials and researchers.

One country, two societies? Germany twenty years after reunification. OSW Study 35/2011

3 October 2010 marked the twentieth anniversary of the reunification of the two German states. This is an occasion for summing up and evaluating the changes which have taken place in Germany since 1990. Germany became reunited through the incorporation of the East German federal states to the then Federal Republic of Germany. The West German point of view is predominant in public discourse regarding this issue, which is manifested through grading the new federal states for their progress in assimilation to the western part of Germany. However, this way the positive changes which have taken place in the social, political and economic areas in the eastern federal states over the past two decades are often disregarded. This paper is an attempt to show the changes which have taken place in Germany, involving areas in which new federal states have outperformed the western part of the country.

Strategic knowledge serendipity and arbitrage & intellectual venture capitalists: An emerging breed of knowledge entrepreneurs; and Part II: Global and Local (GloCal) knowledge logistics for innovation and competitiveness. ACES Working Papers, August 2009

Strategic Knowledge: While entrepreneurship may occur as a natural result of personal drive, it occurs most often, most robustly and is most sustainable in an environment designed to encourage it. Potential entrepreneurs become active entrepreneurs when the conditions are most supportive of their commercial opportunities and their business thus helping channel the two key qualities they exhibit as individuals obsessed maniacs and clairvoyant oracles (Carayannis, GWU Lectures, 2000-2005) and (Carayannis et at, 2003a) towards the generation of sustainable wealth. So far, entrepreneurial scholars who turn into intellectual venture capitalists by founding knowledge-driven companies remain one of the least explored specie in the territory of entrepreneurship. GloCal: The increasing engagement of firms within global knowledge and production networks and their ability to source knowledge globally as well as locally (GloCally), for the development of innovation capacities will shape the future of UK's knowledge resources and its role in the global economy. Practices such as off-shoring R&D activities are widely adopted, creating challenging, and not very well understood, issues related to cross-country and inter-firm knowledge and technology flows. We seek to address the internationalisation and networking of research and innovation activities, including the roles and strategies of enterprises, universities, research centres, governments in a cross-country and inter-sectoral way, to assess the impact and the implications for sustaining and enhancing the competitiveness of UK firms and other British knowledge producers and users.

Turkey’s 7 June parliamentary elections – Part I. A pivotal moment for Turkey’s future. EPC Commentary, 3 June 2015

On 7 June, Turks will head to the polls to elect a new parliament. This election is a pivotal moment for Turkey’s future, with two battles being played out. While the first is about securing a majority in parliament, the second is related to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his goal of creating a presidential system of governance. Furthermore, the future of the Kurdish Peace Process and the stability in the southeast of the country will almost certainly hinge on the outcome. Hence, this election is a battle for Turkey's future.

The Southern Gas Corridor. The Azerbaijani-Turkish project becomes part of the game between Russia and the EU. OSW POINT OF VIEW 53, 2015-08-20

The Southern Gas Corridor is a system of three complementary gas pipeline projects controlled by Azerbaijan and Turkey, each at a different stage of implementation. The crisis in EU-Russia relations over Ukraine has made the two players interested in the Southern Gas Corridor once again. Brussels views it as an opportunity for a genuine diversification of gas supplies and a way to reinforce its position against Russia. In turn, Moscow’s proposal for Turkey and Greece to join the Turkish Stream gas pipeline project changes the energy map of the regional projects, which indirectly affects the Southern Gas Corridor. This has raised concern in Azerbaijan, which has been making efforts to manoeuvre between the interests of Moscow and Brussels.

Aftermath of the Maidan. Ukrainian society two years after the revolution. OSW Commentary Number 199/04.03.2016

Two years after the Revolution of Dignity, it is clear that hopes of a quick reconstruction and modernisation of the Ukrainian state as a political and institutional system have not been fulfilled. The resistance of the bureaucrats, politicians and oligarchs who make up the informal, corrupt systems has proven to be very strong, and the will of part of the political elite and the EU and the United States to implement the procedures they have suggested has proved insufficient. If not for the war and the economic collapse, which forced Kyiv to seek external financial assistance and political support, the modernisation of the state would have proceeded even more slowly and with yet greater difficulty.

The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities

It is well known that meteorological conditions influence the comfort and human health. Southern European countries, including Portugal, show the highest mortality rates during winter, but the effects of extreme cold temperatures in Portugal have never been estimated. The objective of this study was the estimation of the effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in Lisbon and Oporto, aiming the production of scientific evidence for the development of a real-time health warning system. Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models were applied to assess the exposure-response relation and lag patterns of the association between minimum temperature and all-causes mortality and between minimum temperature and circulatory and respiratory system diseases mortality from 1992 to 2012, stratified by age, for the period from November to March. The analysis was adjusted for over dispersion and population size, for the confounding effect of influenza epidemics and controlled for long-term trend, seasonality and day of the week. Results showed that the effect of cold temperatures in mortality was not immediate, presenting a 1–2-day delay, reaching maximumincreased risk of death after 6–7 days and lasting up to 20–28 days. The overall effect was generally higher and more persistent in Lisbon than in Oporto, particularly for circulatory and respiratory mortality and for the elderly. Exposure to cold temperatures is an important public health problem for a relevant part of the Portuguese population, in particular in Lisbon.

Evidence for two protein coding transcripts at the Igf2as locus

The insulin-like growth factor 2 antisense (Igf2as) gene is part of the Ins-Igf2-H19 imprinted gene cluster. The function of the paternally expressed Igf2as is still elusive. In our previous work, we showed that Igf2as transcripts were located in the cytoplasm of C2C12 mouse myoblast cells, associated with polysomes and polyadenylated suggesting that Igf2as is protein coding. In the present work, the protein coding capacity of Igf2as was investigated. We demonstrate for the first time the existence of a polypeptide translated from an Igf2as construct. Furthermore, an RNA-Seq analysis was performed using RNA prepared from skeletal muscles of newborn wild-type and ∆ DMR1-U2 mice to further elucidate the function of Igf2as transcripts. We found no evidence for a regulatory role of Igf2as in the imprinted gene cluster. Interestingly, the RNA-Seq analysis indicated that Igf2as plays a role in the energy metabolism, the cell cycle, histone acetylation and muscle contraction pathways. Our Igf2as investigations further elucidated that there are two distinct Igf2as transcripts corresponding to two putative ORFs.

A Comprehensive Discussion of HMBC Pulse Sequences: 4. Establishing Two-Bond Correlations from HMBC and Related Experiments

The utility of the HMBC experiment for structure elucidation is unquestionable, but the nature of the coupling pathways leading to correlations in an HMBC experiment creates the potential for misinterpretation. This misinterpretation potential is intimately linked to the size of the long-range heteronuclear couplings involved, and may become troublesome in those cases of a particularly strong 2JCH correlation that might be mistaken for a 3JCH correlation or a 4JCH correlation of appreciable strength that could be mistaken for a weaker 3JCH correlation. To address these potential avenues of confusion, work from several laboratories has been focused on the development of what might be considered “coupling pathway edited” long-range heteronuclear correlation experiments that are derived from or related to the HMBC experiment. The first example of an effort to address the problems associated with correlation path length was seen in the heteronucleus-detected XCORFE experiment described by Reynolds and co-workers that predated the development of the HMBC experiment. Proton-detected analogs of the HMBC experiment intended to differentiate 2JCH correlations from nJCH correlations where n = 3, 4, include the 2J,3J-HMBC, HMBC-RELAY, H2BC, edited-HMBC, and HAT H2BC experiments. The principles underlying the critical components of each of these experiments are discussed and experimental verification of the results that can be obtained using model compounds are shown. This contribution concludes with a brief discussion of the 1,1-ADEQUATE experiments that provide an alternative means of identifying adjacent protonated and non-protonated carbon correlations by exploiting 1JCC correlations at natural abundance.

Changes in the vegetation and trade winds in equatorial Northwest Africa 140,000-70,000 yr B.P., as deduced from two marine pollen records

The deep-sea cores M 16415-2 and M 16416-2 at about 9°N off Sierra Leone were analysed palynologically for the time interval 140,000-70,000 yr B.P. Results were presented in absolute (pollen concentration and pollen influx) and relative diagrams (pollen percentage). In a previous study it was evidenced that in northwest Africa pollen is mainly transported to the Atlantic by wind, so that the efficiency of aeolian pollen transport (pollen flux) could be used to evaluate changes in the intensity of the northeast trade winds. The glacial episodes (represented by the oxygen isotope stages 6 and 4) are characterized by strong northeast trade winds, whereas the last interglacial (stage 5) is characterized by weak trade winds. The pollen influx diagram shows that the intensity of the trade winds increased slightly during the relatively cool intervals of stage 5 (viz. 5.4 and 5.2). Tropical forest had maximally expanded around 124,000 yr B.P. (stage 5.5), around 98,000 yr B.P. (transition of stage 5.3 to 5.2), and around 70,000 yr B.P. (first part of stage 4): an increasing delay of the response of tropical forest to global intervals with maximum temperature is apparent during the last interglacial. As tropical forests need continuous humidity, the record of tropical forest monitors changes in climatic humidity south of the Sahara. During the last interglacial, the southern boundary of the Sahara shifted only little: expansions and contractions of the tropical forest area are correlated with contra-oscillations of the grass-dominated savanna zone. Great latitudinal shifts of the desert savanna boundary, on the contrary, occurred during the penultimate glacial interglacial transition (around 128,000 yr B.P.) to the north, and during the last interglacial-glacial transition (around 65,000 yr B.P.) to the south.

Abundance and opal input of radiolarian species of two sediment cores from the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

Radiolarian-based paleoceanographic reconstructions generally use the abundance of selected radiolarian species. However, the recent focus on the opal flux and the development of isotope measurements in biogenic opal and the organic matter embedded in it demands a better knowledge of the origin of the opal. We present here an estimation of the opal content of the skeleton of 63 radiolarian species from two sites in the Southern Ocean. The skeletons are modelled as associations of simple geometrical shapes, and the volume thus obtained is combined with opal density to obtain the amount of opal. These data are, thus, used to determine the most important opal carriers in the radiolarian assemblage in both cores.

Report of the Tariff Commission, appointed under act of Congress approved May 15, 1882.

At head of title: 47th Congress, 2d session, House of Representatives. Mis. doc. 6, part 1.

Part I. A closing roll from Holy and Eternal Wisdom, Mother Ann, Father William and Father James, to the children of Zion : Part II. A sacred covenant of our heavenly parents, sent forth upon earth to their children, at the close of their late manifestation, (on the holy mount of God,) for the purification of Zion and the inhabitants thereof /

Text printed in two columns.

A holy, sacred, and divine roll and book from the Lord God of Heaven, to the inhabitants of earth : revealed in the United Society at New Lebanon, County of Columbia, State of New-York, United States of America : read and understand all ye in mortal clay : in two parts /

Part I: vii, 222, [4] p.; part II: [4], 223-402, [4] p.