Observed adaptation to climate change: UK evidence of transition to a well-adapting society

This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping) to building adaptive capacity, implementing actions and creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These actions within government stimulate a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (or in the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The water supply and flood defence sectors, requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure such as reservoirs and coastal defences, have invested more heavily in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Economic sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that while the government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost, it may also have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries.

Refinement of the Clinical Scenario Evaluation Framework for Assessment of Competing Development Strategies with an Application to Multiple Sclerosis

When competing strategies for development programs, clinical trial designs, or data analysis methods exist, the alternatives need to be evaluated in a systematic way to facilitate informed decision making. Here we describe a refinement of the recently proposed clinical scenario evaluation framework for the assessment of competing strategies. The refinement is achieved by subdividing key elements previously proposed into new categories, distinguishing between quantities that can be estimated from preexisting data and those that cannot and between aspects under the control of the decision maker from those that are determined by external constraints. The refined framework is illustrated by an application to a design project for an adaptive seamless design for a clinical trial in progressive multiple sclerosis.

Redox control of light-induced charge separation in a transition metal cluster: photochemistry of a methyl viologen-substituted [Os-3(CO)10(a-diimine)] cluster

Sub)picosecond transient absorption (TA) and time-resolved infrared (TRIR) spectra of the cluster [OS3(CO)(10-) (AcPy-MV)](2+) (the clication AcPy-MV = Acpy-MV2+ = [2-pyridylacetimine-N-(2-(1'-methyl-4,4'-bipyridine-1,1'-diium-1-yl) ethyl)] (PF6)(2)) (1(2+)) reveal that photoinduced electron transfer to the electron-accepting 4,4'-bipyridine-1,1'diium (MV2+) moiety competes with the fast relaxation of the initially populated sigmapi* excited state of the cluster to the ground state and/or cleavage of an Os-Os bond. The TA spectra of cluster 12 in acetone, obtained by irradiation into its lowest-energy absorption band, show the characteristic absorptions of the one-electron-reduced MV*(+) unit at 400 and 615 nm, in accordance with population of a charge-separated (CS) state in which a cluster-core electron has been transferred to the lowest pi* orbital of the remote MV2+ unit. This assignment is confirmed by picosecond TRIR spectra that show a large shift of the pilot highest-frequency nu(CO) band of 1(2+) by ca. +40 cm(-1), reflecting the photooxidation of the cluster core. The CS state is populated via fast (4.2 x 10(11) s(-1)) and efficient (88%) oxidative quenching of the optically populated sigmapi* excited state and decays biexponentially with lifetimes of 38 and 166 ps (1:2:1 ratio) with a complete regeneration of the parent cluster. About 12% of the cluster molecules in the sigmapi* excited state form long-lived open-core biradicals. In strongly coordinating acetonitrile, however, the cluster core-to-MV2+ electron transfer in cluster 12+ results in the irreversible formation of secondary photoproducts with a photooxidized cluster core. The photochemical behavior of the [Os-3(CO)(10)(alpha-diimine-MV)](2+) (donor-acceptor) dyad can be controlled by an externally applied electronic bias. Electrochemical one-electron reduction of the MV2+ moiety prior to the irradiation reduces its electron-accepting character to such an extent that the photoinduced electron transfer to MV*+ is no longer feasible. Instead, the irradiation of reduced cluster 1(.)+ results in the reversible formation of an open-core zwitterion, the ultimate photoproduct also observed upon irradiation of related nonsubstituted clusters [Os-3(CO)(10)(alpha-diimine)] in strongly coordinating solvents such as acetonitrile.

Transition metal clusters on graphite

The topic of this work is 3d transition metals deposited on graphite. Spin-polarised density-functional calculations are used to obtain the magnetic moments of deposited adatoms and dimers. Interatomic potentials are also deduced. These are used in molecular dynamics simulations to study cluster formation and to investigate cluster morphology.

Rigid ferrocenophane and its metal complexes with transition and alkaline-earth metal ions

The rigid [6]ferrocenophane, L-1, was synthesised by condensation of 1,1'-ferrocene dicarbaldehyde with trans-1,2-diaminocyclohexane in high dilution at r.t. followed by reduction. When other experimental conditions were employed, the [6,6,6]ferrocenephane (L-2) was also obtained. Both compounds were characterised by single crystal X-ray crystallography. The protonation of L-1 and its metal complexation were evaluated by the effect on the electron-transfer process of the ferrocene (fc) unit of L-1 using cyclic voltammetry (CV) and square wave voltammetry (SWV) in anhydrous CH3CN solution and in 0.1 M (Bu4NPF6)-Bu-n as the supporting electrolyte. The electrochemical process of L-1 between 300 and 900 mV is complicated by amine oxidation. On the other hand, an anodic shift from the fc/fc(+) wave of L-1 of 249, 225, 81 and 61 mV was observed by formation of Zn2+, Ni2+, Pd2+ and Cu2+ complexes, respectively. Whereas Mg2+ and Ca2+ only have with L-1 weak interactions and they promote the acid-base equilibrium of L-1. This reveals that L-1 is an interesting molecular redox sensor for detection of Zn2+ and Ni2+, although the kinetics of the Zn2+ complex formation is much faster than that of the Ni2+ one. The X-ray crystal structure of [(PdLCl2)-Cl-1] was determined and showed a square-planar environment with Pd(II) and Fe(II) centres separated by 3.781(1) angstrom. The experimental anodic shifts were elucidated by DFT calculations on the [(MLCl2)-Cl-1] series and they are related to the nature of the HOMO of these complexes and a four-electron, two-orbital interaction.

Goal-refinement appraisal of soft projects (GRASP)

Industrial projects are often complex and burdened with time pressures and a lack of information. The term 'soft-project' used here stands for projects where the ‘what’ and/or the ‘how’ is uncertain, which is often the experience in projects involving software intensive systems developments. This thesis intertwines the disciplines of project management and requirements engineering in a goal-oriented application of the maxim ‘keep all objectives satisfied’. It thus proposes a method for appraising projects. In this method, a goal-oriented analysis establishes a framework with which expert judgements are collected so as to construct a confidence profile in regard to the feasibility and adequacy of the project's planned outputs. It is hoped that this appraisal method will contribute to the activities of project ‘shaping’ and aligning stakeholders’ expectations whilst helping project managers appreciate what parts of their project can be progressed and what parts should be held pending further analysis. This thesis offers the following original contribution: an appreciation of appraisal in the project context; a goal-oriented confidence profiling technique; and: a technique to produce goal-refinement diagrams – referred to as Goal Sketching. Collectively these amount to a method for the ‘Goal Refinement Appraisal of Soft-Projects’ (GRASP). The validity of the GRASP method is shown for two projects. In the first it is used for shaping a business investigation project. This is done in real-time in the project. The second case is a retrospective study of an enterprise IT project. This case tests the effectiveness of forecasting project difficulty from an initial confidence profile.

Reversible sphere-to-lamellar wetting transition at the interface of a diblock copolymer system

We use ellipsometry to investigate a transition in the morphology of a sphere-forming diblock copolymer thin-film system. At an interface the diblock morphology may differ from the bulk when the interfacial tension favours wetting of the minority domain, thereby inducing a sphere-to-lamella transition. In a small, favourable window in energetics, one may observe this transition simply by adjusting the temperature. Ellipsometry is ideally suited to the study of the transition because the additional interface created by the wetting layer affects the polarisation of light reflected from the sample. Here we study thin films of poly(butadiene-ethylene oxide) (PB-PEO), which order to form PEO minority spheres in a PB matrix. As temperature is varied, the reversible transition from a partially wetting layer of PEO spheres to a full wetting layer at the substrate is investigated.

Effects of polydispersity on the order-disorder transition of diblock copolymer melts

The effect of polydispersity on an AB diblock copolymer melt is investigated using latticebased Monte Carlo simulations. We consider melts of symmetric composition, where the B blocks are monodisperse and the A blocks are polydisperse with a Schultz-Zimm distribution. In agreement with experiment and self-consistent field theory (SCFT), we find that polydispersity causes a significant increase in domain size. It also induces a transition from flat to curved interfaces, with the polydisperse blocks residing on the inside of the interfacial curvature. Most importantly, the simulations show a relatively small shift in the order-disorder transition (ODT) in agreement with experiment, whereas SCFT incorrectly predicts a sizable shift towards higher temperatures.