Volatility forecasting with range models: An evaluation of new alternatives to the CARR model

The aim of this paper is to analyze the forecasting ability of the CARR model proposed by Chou (2005) using the S&P 500. We extend the data sample, allowing for the analysis of different stock market circumstances and propose the use of various range estimators in order to analyze their forecasting performance. Our results show that there are two range-based models that outperform the forecasting ability of the GARCH model. The Parkinson model is better for upward trends and volatilities which are higher and lower than the mean while the CARR model is better for downward trends and mean volatilities.

Health financing changes in the context of health care decentralization: the case of three Latin American countries

OBJECTIVE: The results of an evaluative longitudinal study, which identified the effects of health care decentralization on health financing in Mexico, Nicaragua and Peru are presented in this article. METHODS: The methodology had two main phases. In the first, secondary sources of data and documents were analyzed with the following variables: type of decentralization implemented, source of financing, funds for financing, providers, final use of resources, mechanisms for resource allocation. In the second phase, primary data were collected by a survey of key personnel in the health sector. RESULTS: Results of the comparative analysis are presented, showing the changes implemented in the three countries, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of each country in matters of financing and decentralization. CONCLUSIONS: The main financing changes implemented and quantitative trends with respect to the five financing indicators are presented as a methodological tool to implement corrections and adjustments in health financing.

Cuidados de saúde primários: as regras do jogo

Enquadramento – A reforma dos Cuidados de Saúde Primários (CSP) é um facto irreversível. Uma “onda” de reforma percorre igualmente grande parte dos países ocidentais exigindo uma reflexão sobre o processo. Objetivo – Descrever a reforma em curso nos CSP e identificar os potenciais factores de sucesso e insucesso dos serviços públicos de cuidados de saúde primários. Metodologia – Análise crítica da literatura. Resultados e conclusões – A eficiência, eficácia e equidade de acesso aos cuidados de saúde são insuficientes. Mudanças organizacionais estão a ser operadas alterando as relações e a cooperação inter‑profissional e inter‑organizacional. É evidente a tensão que existe entre as partes envolvidas. Novas formas organizacionais estão a ser criadas para garantir a viabilidade das reformas e equilíbrio dos sistemas. O novo modelo organizacional, se pretender garantir a sustentabilidade e a viabilidade dos cuidados primários, deverá assentar num equilíbrio de gestão de recursos e numa estratégia de saúde para todos que não significa saúde para tudo. ABSTRACT: Background – Primary Health Care (PHC) reform is a fact in several countries and is happening also in Portugal demanding a reflection on the process. Aim – To describe the PHC reform and to identify the factors of success or potential failure in PHC public services. Methods – Critical appraisal of the literature. Results and Conclusions – The efficiency, efficacy and access to health care are insufficient. Organizational changes are taking place altering inter‑professional and inter‑organizational cooperation and relationship. Tension among the parts involved is evident. New organizational models are being created to secure the sustainability of the reforms and the systems. The new models should provide a balanced management of the available resources, in a strategy of health for all that doesn’t mean health for everything.

The condensation and ordering of models of empty liquids

We consider a simple model consisting of particles with four bonding sites ("patches"), two of type A and two of type B, on the square lattice, and investigate its global phase behavior by simulations and theory. We set the interaction between B patches to zero and calculate the phase diagram as the ratio between the AB and the AA interactions, epsilon(AB)*, varies. In line with previous work, on three-dimensional off-lattice models, we show that the liquid-vapor phase diagram exhibits a re-entrant or "pinched" shape for the same range of epsilon(AB)*, suggesting that the ratio of the energy scales - and the corresponding empty fluid regime - is independent of the dimensionality of the system and of the lattice structure. In addition, the model exhibits an order-disorder transition that is ferromagnetic in the re-entrant regime. The use of low-dimensional lattice models allows the simulation of sufficiently large systems to establish the nature of the liquid-vapor critical points and to describe the structure of the liquid phase in the empty fluid regime, where the size of the "voids" increases as the temperature decreases. We have found that the liquid-vapor critical point is in the 2D Ising universality class, with a scaling region that decreases rapidly as the temperature decreases. The results of simulations and theoretical analysis suggest that the line of order-disorder transitions intersects the condensation line at a multi-critical point at zero temperature and density, for patchy particle models with a re-entrant, empty fluid, regime. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3657406]

Implications of the LHC two-photon signal for two-Higgs-doublet models

We study the implications for two-Higgs-doublet models of the recent announcement at the LHC giving a tantalizing hint for a Higgs boson of mass 125 GeV decaying into two photons. We require that the experimental result be within a factor of 2 of the theoretical standard model prediction, and analyze the type I and type II models as well as the lepton-specific and flipped models, subject to this requirement. It is assumed that there is no new physics other than two Higgs doublets. In all of the models, we display the allowed region of parameter space taking the recent LHC announcement at face value, and we analyze the W+W-, ZZ, (b) over barb, and tau(+)tau(-) expectations in these allowed regions. Throughout the entire range of parameter space allowed by the gamma gamma constraint, the numbers of events for Higgs decays into WW, ZZ, and b (b) over bar are not changed from the standard model by more than a factor of 2. In contrast, in the lepton-specific model, decays to tau(+)tau(-) are very sensitive across the entire gamma gamma-allowed region.

Detection of anti-Giardia lamblia serum antibody among children of day care centers

OBJETIVES: To detect anti-Giardia lamblia serum antibodies in healthy children attending public day care centers and to assess serological tests as tools for estimating the prevalence of G. lamblia in endemic areas. METHODS: Three separate stool specimens and filter paper blood samples were collected from 147 children ranging from 0 to 6 years old. Each stool sample was processed using spontaneous sedimentation and zinc sulfate flotation methods. Blood samples were tested by indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for Giardia IgG. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Of 147 individuals tested, 93 (63.3%) showed Giardia cysts in their feces. Using IIF and ELISA, serum antibodies were detected in 93 (63.3%) and 100 (68%) samples , respectively. Sensitivity of IIF and ELISA was 82% and 72%, respectively. However, ELISA revealed to be less specific (39%) than IIF (70%). IIF also showed a higher concordance with microscopic examination than ELISA.

Assessment of a consultation-liaison psychiatry and psychology health care program

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relevance of subjective criteria adopted by a psychiatry and psychology consultation-liaison service, and their suitability in the evaluation of case registries and objective results. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted and all supervisors of the university hospital service were interviewed. Routinely collected case registries were also reviewed. Standardized assessment with content analysis for each category was carried out. RESULTS: The results showed distortions in the adopted service focus (doctor-patient relationship) and consultant requests. This focus is more on consulting physician-oriented interventions than on patients. DISCUSSION: Evaluation of the relevance of service criteria could help promoting quality assessment of the services provided, mainly when objective criteria have not yet been established to assure their suitability.

Supporting leadership development by exposure to role models: two case studies

The idiomatic expression “In Rome be a Roman” can be applied to leadership training and development as well. Leaders who can act as role models inspire other future leaders in their behaviour, attitudes and ways of thinking. Based on two examples of current leaders in the fields of Politics and Public Administration, I support the idea that exposure to role models during their training was decisive for their career paths and current activities as prominent characters in their profession. Issues such as how students should be prepared for community or national leadership as well as cross-cultural engagement are raised here. The hypothesis of transculturalism and cross-cultural commitment as a factor of leadership is presented. Based on current literature on Leadership as well as the presented case studies, I expect to raise a debate focusing on strategies for improving leaders’ training in their cross-cultural awareness.

Probabilistic linkage in household survey on hospital care usage

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential advantages and limitations of the use of the Brazilian hospital admission authorization forms database and the probabilistic record linkage methodology for the validation of reported utilization of hospital care services in household surveys. METHODS: A total of 2,288 households interviews were conducted in the county of Duque de Caxias, Brazil. Information on the occurrence of at least one hospital admission in the year preceding the interview was obtained from a total of 10,733 household members. The 130 records of household members who reported at least one hospital admission in a public hospital were linked to a hospital database with 801,587 records, using an automatic probabilistic approach combined with an extensive clerical review. RESULTS: Seventy-four (57%) of the 130 household members were identified in the hospital database. Yet only 60 subjects (46%) showed a record of hospitalization in the hospital database in the study period. Hospital admissions due to a surgery procedure were significantly more likely to have been identified in the hospital database. The low level of concordance seen in the study can be explained by the following factors: errors in the linkage process; a telescoping effect; and an incomplete record in the hospital database. CONCLUSIONS: The use of hospital administrative databases and probabilistic linkage methodology may represent a methodological alternative for the validation of reported utilization of health care services, but some strategies should be employed in order to minimize the problems related to the use of this methodology in non-ideal conditions. Ideally, a single identifier, such as a personal health insurance number, and the universal coverage of the database would be desirable.

Voluntary HIV counseling and testing during prenatal care in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: Voluntary HIV counseling and testing are provided to all Brazilian pregnant women with the purpose of reducing mother-to-child HIV transmission. The purpose of the study was to assess characteristics of HIV testing and identify factors associated with HIV counseling and testing. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out comprising 1,658 mothers living in Porto Alegre, Brazil. Biological, reproductive and social variables were obtained from mothers by means of a standardized questionnaire. Being counseling about HIV testing was the dependent variable. Confidence intervals, chi-square test and hierarchical logistic model were used to determine the association between counseling and maternal variables. RESULTS: Of 1,658 mothers interviewed, 1,603 or 96.7% (95% CI: 95.7-97.5) underwent HIV testing, and 51 or 3.1% (95% CI: 2.3-4.0) were not tested. Four (0.2%) refused to undergo testing after counseling. Of 51 women not tested in this study, 30 had undergone the testing previously. Of 1,603 women tested, 630 or 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9-41.7) received counseling, 947 or 59.2% (95% CI: 56.6-61.5) did not, and 26 (1.6%) did not inform. Low income, lack of prenatal care, late beginning of prenatal care, use of rapid testing, and receiving prenatal in the public sector were variables independently associated with a lower probability of getting counseling about HIV testing. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings confirmed the high rate of prenatal HIV testing in Porto Alegre. However, women coming from less privileged social groups were less likely to receive information and benefit from counseling.

Association between child-care and acute diarrhea: a study in Portuguese children

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the influence of the type of child-care on the occurrence of acute diarrhea with special emphasis on the effect of children grouping during care. METHODS: From October 1998 to January 1999 292 children, aged 24 to 36 months, recruited using a previously assembled cohort of newborns, were evaluated. Information on the type of care and occurrence of diarrhea in the previous year was obtained from parents by telephone interview. The X² and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to compare proportions and quantitative variables, respectively. The risk of diarrhea was estimated through the calculation of incident odds ratios (OR) and their respective 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), crude and adjusted by unconditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Using as reference category children cared individually at home, the adjusted ORs for diarrhea occurrence were 3.18, 95% CI [1.49, 6.77] for children cared in group at home, 2.28, 95% CI [0.92, 5.67] for children cared in group in day-care homes and 2.54, 95% CI [1.21, 5.33] for children cared in day-care centers. Children that changed from any other type of child-care setting to child-care centers in the year preceding the study showed a risk even higher (OR 7.65, 95% CI [3.25, 18.02]). CONCLUSIONS: Group care increases the risk of acute diarrhea whatsoever the specific setting.

Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

The impact of night work on subjective reports of well-being: an exploratory study of health care workers from five nations

OBJECTIVE: To carry out a survey data collection from health care workers in Brazil, Croatia, Poland, Ukraine and the USA with two primary goals: (1) to provide information about which aspects of well-being are most likely to need attention when shiftwork management solutions are being developed, and (2) to explore whether nations are likely to differ with respect to the impacts of night work on the well-being of workers involved in health care work. METHODS: The respondents from each nation were sorted into night worker and non-night worker groups. Worker perceptions of being physically tired, mentally tired, and tense at the end of the workday were examined. Subjective reports of perceived felt age were also studied. For each of these four dependent variables, an ANCOVA analysis was carried out. Hours worked per week, stability of weekly work schedule, and chronological age were the covariates for these analyses. RESULTS: The results clearly support the general proposal that nations differ significantly in worker perceptions of well-being. In addition, perceptions of physical and mental tiredness at the end of the workday were higher for night workers. For the perception of being physically tired at the end of a workday, the manner and degree to which the night shift impacts the workers varies by nation. CONCLUSIONS: Additional research is needed to determine if the nation and work schedule differences observed are related to differences in job tasks, work schedule structure, off-the-job variables, and/or other worker demographic variables.

Drogas, sujeito e proibicionismo: uma discussão sobre os modelos de atenção aos usuários de drogas

Pós-graduação em Psicologia - FCLAS

Blood glucose control in diabetes patients seen in primary health care centers

OBJECTIVE: To identify factors associated to poor glycemic control among diabetic patients seen at primary health care centers. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in a sample of 372 diabetic patients attending 32 primary health care centers in southern Brazil. Data on three hierarchical levels of health unit infrastructure, medical care and patient characteristics were collected. RESULTS: The frequency of poor glycemic control was 50.5%. Multivariate analysis (multilevel method) showed that patients with body mass indexes below 27 kg/m², patients on oral hypoglycemic agents or insulin, and patients diagnosed as diabetic over five years prior to the interview were more likely to present poor glycemic control when compared to their counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: Given the hierarchical data structuring, all associations found suggest that factors associated to hyperglycemia are related to patient-level characteristics.