Evolution of stress deficit and changing rates of seismicity in cellular automaton models of earthquake faults

We investigate the internal dynamics of two cellular automaton models with heterogeneous strength fields and differing nearest neighbour laws. One model is a crack-like automaton, transferring ail stress from a rupture zone to the surroundings. The other automaton is a partial stress drop automaton, transferring only a fraction of the stress within a rupture zone to the surroundings. To study evolution of stress, the mean spectral density. f(k(r)) of a stress deficit held is: examined prior to, and immediately following ruptures in both models. Both models display a power-law relationship between f(k(r)) and spatial wavenumber (k(r)) of the form f(k(r)) similar tok(r)(-beta). In the crack model, the evolution of stress deficit is consistent with cyclic approach to, and retreat from a critical state in which large events occur. The approach to criticality is driven by tectonic loading. Short-range stress transfer in the model does not affect the approach to criticality of broad regions in the model. The evolution of stress deficit in the partial stress drop model is consistent with small fluctuations about a mean state of high stress, behaviour indicative of a self-organised critical system. Despite statistics similar to natural earthquakes these simplified models lack a physical basis. physically motivated models of earthquakes also display dynamical complexity similar to that of a critical point system. Studies of dynamical complexity in physical models of earthquakes may lead to advancement towards a physical theory for earthquakes.

Hormonal factors and risk of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage - An international population-based, case-control study

Background and Purpose-Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is more common in women than in men, but the role of hormonal factors in its etiology remains uncertain. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hormonal factors and risk of SAH in women. Methods-This was a prospective, multicenter, population-based, case-control study performed in 4 major urban centers in Australia and New Zealand. Two hundred sixty-eight female cases of first-ever aneurysmal SAH occurred during 1995-1998. Controls were 286 frequency-matched women from the general population of each center. Outcome measures included risk of SAH associated with use of oral contraceptive pills (OCPs), hormone replacement therapy (HRT), and various endogenous hormonal factors including menstrual patterns, parity, age at birth of first child, and breast-feeding practices. Results-Cases and controls did not differ with regard to menstrual and reproductive history except in age at bir th of first child, where older age was associated with reduced risk of SAH (odds ratio [OR], 0.63; 95% CI, 0.43, 0.91). Relative to never use of HRT, the adjusted OR for over use of HRT was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.41, 0.98), which did not alter significantly after further adjustment for possible confounding factors. Borderline evidence of an inverse association was detected for past use of HRT (adjusted OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.30, 1.13) and current use of HRT (adjusted OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.40, 1.13), but there was no evidence of an association for use of OCPs (adjusted OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.58, 1.60). Conclusions-The risks of SAH are lower in women whose first pregnancy is at an older age and women who have ever used HRT but not OCPs. The findings suggest an independent etiologic role for hormonal factors in the pathogenesis of aneurysmal SAH and provide support for a protective role fur HRT on risk of SAH in postmenopausal women.

Employee reactions to behavioural control under conditions of stress: the moderating role of self-efficacy

Extensive research conducted in the occupational stress literature has failed to provide convincing support for the stress-buffering effects of work control on employee adjustment. Drawing on research conducted in the laboratory context, it was proposed that the stress-buffering effects of work control on employee adjustment would be more marked at high, rather than low, levels of self-efficacy. In a sample of 100 customer service representatives, a significant three-way interaction among role conflict, work control and self-efficacy (measured at Time 1) was observed on (low) depersonalization (measured at Time 2). Consistent with expectations, work control reduced the negative effects of work stress on this outcome measure only for employees who perceived high levels of self-efficacy at work. In addition, there was evidence to suggest that self-efficacy moderated the main effects of work control on job satisfaction and somatic health. These findings are discussed hi terms of their theoretical contribution to the job strain model, and also in relation to workplace interventions designed to improve levels of employee adjustment.

The burden of mental disorders in Victoria, 1996

Background: Between 1998 and 1999, a burden of disease assessment was carried out in Victoria, Australia applying and improving on the methods of the Global Burden of Disease Study. This paper describes the methods and results of the calculations of the burden due to 22 mental disorders, adding 14 conditions not included in previous burden of disease estimates, Methods: The National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing provided recent data on the occurrence of the major adult mental disorders in Australia. Data from international studies and expert advice further contributed to the construction of disease models, describing each condition in terms of incidence, average duration and level of severity, with adjustments for comorbidity with other mental disorders. Disability weights for the time spent in different states of mental ill health were borrowed mainly from a study in the Netherlands, supplemented by weights derived in a local extrapolation exercise. Results: Mental disorders were the third largest group of conditions contributing to the burden of disease in Victoria, ranking behind cancers and cardiovascular diseases. Depression was the greatest cause of disability in both men and women. Eight other mental disorders in men and seven in women ranked among the top twenty causes of disability. Conclusions: Insufficient information on the natural history of many of the mental disorders, the limited information on the validity of mental disorder diagnoses in community surveys and considerable differences between ICD-10 and DSM-IV defined diagnoses were the main concerns about the accuracy of the estimates. Similar and often greater concerns have been raised in relation to the estimation of the burden from common non-fatal physical conditions such as asthma, diabetes and osteoarthritis. In comparison, psychiatric epidemiology can boast greater scientific rigour in setting standards for population surveys.

Expression of growth factors in Dictyostelium discoideum

Growth factors and their binding proteins are important proteins regulating mammalian cell proliferation and differentiation so there is considerable interest in producing them as recombinant proteins, especially in hosts that do not already produce a complex mixture of growth factors. Many growth factors require posttranslational modifications making them unsuitable for production in Escherichia coli or other prokaryotes. Since several expression vector systems have been recently developed for foreign protein production in the cellular slime mould, Dictyostelium discoideum, we attempted to use two of these systems to express human insulin-like growth factor binding protein 6 (hIGFBP6) and bovine beta-cellulin (bBTC) as secreted proteins. Although both proteins were successfully produced in stably transformed amoebae, no secretion was detected in spite of several attempts to facilitate this occurring.

A numerical study of flexural buckling of foliated rock slopes

The occurrence of foliated rock masses is common in mining environment. Methods employing continuum approximation in describing the deformation of such rock masses possess a clear advantage over methods where each rock layer and each inter-layer interface (joint) is explicitly modelled. In devising such a continuum model it is imperative that moment (couple) stresses and internal rotations associated with the bending of the rock layers be properly incorporated in the model formulation. Such an approach will lead to a Cosserat-type theory. In the present model, the behaviour of the intact rock layer is assumed to be linearly elastic and the joints are assumed to be elastic-perfectly plastic. Condition of slip at the interfaces are determined by a Mohr-Coulomb criterion with tension cut off at zero normal stress. The theory is valid for large deformations. The model is incorporated into the finite element program AFENA and validated against an analytical solution of elementary buckling problems of a layered medium under gravity loading. A design chart suitable for assessing the stability of slopes in foliated rock masses against flexural buckling failure has been developed. The design chart is easy to use and provides a quick estimate of critical loading factors for slopes in foliated rock masses. It is shown that the model based on Euler's buckling theory as proposed by Cavers (Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering 1981; 14:87-104) substantially overestimates the critical heights for a vertical slope and underestimates the same for sub-vertical slopes. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Post-traumatic stress disorder: Findings from the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Well-being

Background. We report on the epidemiology of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the Australian community, including information on lifetime exposure to trauma, 12-month prevalence of PTSD, sociodemographic correlates and co-morbidity. Methods. Data were obtained from a stratified sample of 10641 participants as part of the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Well-being. A modified version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview was used to determine the presence of PTSD, as well as other DSM-IV anxiety, affective and substance use disorders. Results. The estimated 12-month prevalence of PTSD was 1.33%, which is considerably lower than that found in comparable North American studies. Although females were at greater risk than males within the subsample of those who had experienced trauma, the large gender differences noted in some recent epidemiological research were not replicated. Prevalence was elevated among the never married and previously married respondents, and was lower among those aged over 55. For both men and women, rape and sexual molestation were the traumatic events most likely to be associated with PTSD. A high level of Axis I co-morbidity was found among those persons with PTSD Conclusions. PTSD is a highly prevalent disorder in the Australian community and is routinely associated with high rates of anxiety, depression and substance disorders. Future research is needed to investigate rates among other populations outside the North American continent.

Long-term disability after first-ever stroke and related prognostic factors in the Perth Community Stroke Study, 1989-1990

Background and Purpose-Few reliable estimates of the long-term functional outcome after stroke are available. This population-based study aimed to describe disability, dependency, and related independent prognostic factors at 5 years after,a first-ever stroke in patients in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-All individuals with a suspected acute stroke who were resident in a geographically defined region (population, 138 708) of Perth, Western Australia, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria over a period of 18 months in 1989 to 1990. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 and 12 months and 5 years after the index event. Results-There were 370 cases of first-ever stroke, and 277 patients survived to 30 days. Of these early survivors, 152 (55%) were alive at 5 years, and among those who were neither institutionalized (n=146) nor disabled (n=129) at the time of their stroke, 21 (14%) were institutionalized in a nursing home, and 47 (36%) were disabled. The most important predictors of death or disability at 5 years were increasing age, baseline disability defined by a Barthel Index score of <20/20 (odds ratio [OR], 6.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.7 to 14), moderate hemiparesis (OR, 2.7. 95% CI, 1.1 to 6.2), severe hemiparesis (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 19), and recurrent stroke (OR, 9.4; 95% CI, 3.0 to 30). A low level of activity before the stroke was a significant predictor of institutionalization, and subsequent recurrent stroke was a consistent, independent predictor of institutionalization, disability, and death or institutionalization, increasing the odds of each of these 3 adverse outcomes by 5- to 15-fold. Conclusions-Among 30-day survivors of first-ever stroke, about half survive 5 years; of survivors, one third remain disabled, and I in 7 are in permanent institutional care. The major modifiable predictors of poor long-term outcome are a low level of activity before the stroke and subsequent recurrent stroke. Efforts to increase physical activity among the elderly and to prevent recurrent stroke in survivors of a first stroke are likely to reduce the long-term burden of cerebrovascular disease.

How to do safe sternal reentry and the risk factors of redo cardiac surgery: A 21-year review with zero major cardiac injury

Objectives: Resternotomy is a common part of cardiac surgical practice. Associated with resternotomy are the risks of cardiac injury and catastrophic hemorrhage and the subsequent elevated morbidity and mortality in the operating room or during the postoperative period. The technique of direct vision resternotomy is safe and has fewer, if any, serious cardiac injuries. The technique, the reduced need for groin cannulation and the overall low operative mortality and morbidity are the focus of this restrospective analysis. Methods: The records of 495 patients undergoing 546 resternotomies over a 21-year period to January 2000 were reviewed. All consecutive reoperations by the one surgeon comprised patients over the age of 20 at first resternotomy: M:F 343:203, mean age 57 years (range 20 to 85, median age 60). The mean NYHA grade was 2.3 [with 67 patients (1), 273 (11),159 (111), 43 (IV), and 4 (V classification)] with elective reoperation in 94.6%. Cardiac injury was graded into five groups and the incidence and reasons for groin cannulation estimated. The morbidity and mortality as a result of the reoperation and resternotomy were assessed. Results: The hospital/30 day mortality was 2.9% (95% Cl: 1.6%-4.4%) (16 deaths) over the 21 years. First (481), second (53), and third (12) resternotomies produced 307 uncomplicated technical reopenings, 203 slower but uncomplicated procedures, 9 minor superficial cardiac lacerations, and no moderate or severe cardiac injuries. Direct vision resternotomy is crystalized into the principle that only adhesions that are visualized from below are divided and only sternal bone that is freed of adhesions is sewn. Groin exposure was never performed prophylactically for resternotomy. Fourteen patients (2.6%) had such cannulation for aortic dissection/aneurysm (9 patients), excessive sternal adherence of cardiac structures (3 patients), presurgery cardiac arrest (1 patient), and high aortic cannulation desired and not possible (1 patient). The average postop blood loss was 594 mL (95% CI:558-631) in the first 12 hours. The need to return to the operating room for control of excessive bleeding was 2% (11 patients). Blood transfusion was given in 65% of the resternotomy procedures over the 21 years (mean 854 mL 95% Cl 765-945 mL) and 41% over the last 5 years. Conclusions: The technique of direct vision resternotomy has been associated with zero moderate or major cardiac injury/catastrophic hemorrhage at reoperation. Few patients have required groin cannulation. In the postoperative period, there was acceptable blood loss, transfusion rates, reduced morbidity, and moderate low mortality for this potentially high risk group.

Outcome research in psychodynamic psychotherapy: Psychological, social and neuropsychological factors

While many studies have demonstrated positive outcomes from psychotherapy when it is practiced in a controlled research environment with carefully selected (or excluded) patient groups and rigid manualised therapy sessions there is a paucity of research regarding effective outcomes from psychotherapy as it is practiced in actual clinical conditions. The aim of this series of studies was to investigate outcomes, using an effectiveness approach, from psychodynamic psychotherapy as it is practiced by private psychiatrists. Three studies were planned. The aim of Study 1 was to provide standardized baseline measures on the following dimensions • Personal Demographic Information (PDI), • Target Symptoms and Disorders (TSD) including a neuropsychological profile • Inter and Intra Personal (IIP) factors, and, • General Functioning and Quality of Life (GFQoL) factors. Study 2 aimed to examine changes in patient characteristics during the course of treatment. Thus, baseline assessments were repeated at sixmonthly intervals to determine if therapy had been effective for individual patients. A third study was planned to assess the extent to which the results of significant outcome predictors could be replicated in different patient samples. Twenty-nine psychiatrists consented to refer patients with 20 patients having completed pre therapy assessments and six and 18-month follow-up questionnaires. The presentation of this research will focus on the interesting research methodology utilized, patient demographic characteristics and on the patient changes occurring over time on the dimensions of Defence Style (DSQ), Quality of Life (WHOQOL- Bref) and the severity of depression (BDI). The patient sample included 10 male and 10 female patients, whose ages ranged from 19 years to 66 years (mean = 43 years). While seven of the patients did not meet SCID-IV criteria for a current DSM-IV Axis 1 disorder, six patients met criteria for a current mood disorder, three for panic disorder, one patient each for PTSD, alcohol abuse and dependence, and 2 patients met current criteria for multiple Axis 1 disorders. The research is ongoing.