Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economic estimates

Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options (in coherence with PATEROS and CPESFR EU projects) have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economic estimates. Scenarios include: (i) the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle, (ii) full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U?Pu MOX fuel, (iii) closed fuel cycle with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet, and (iv) closed fuel cycle with MA transmutation in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS). All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for 200 years, looking for long term equilibrium mass flow achievement. The simulations were made using the TR_EVOL code, capable to assess the management of the nuclear mass streams in the scenario as well as economics for the estimation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and other costs. Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (natural and depleted U, and Pu). Additionally, we have found as expected that the FR scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario. The elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires a maximum of 55% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 44 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation) or an average of 28 units of ADS plants (i.e., a peak value of 51 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the main usefulness of the provided economic results is for relative comparison of scenarios and breakdown of LCOE contributors rather than provision of absolute values, as technological readiness levels are low for most of the advanced fuel cycle stages. The obtained estimations show an increase of LCOE ? averaged over the whole period ? with respect to the reference open cycle scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios. The main contribution to LCOE is the capital costs of new facilities, quantified between 60% and 69% depending on the scenario. An uncertainty analysis is provided around assumed low and high values of processes and technologies.

Optimal Combined Forecasts for Electricity Prices: Influence of Clean Energies

In this work, an electricity price forecasting model is developed. The performance of the proposed approach is improved by considering renewable energies (wind power and hydro generation) as explanatory variables. Additionally, the resulting forecasts are obtained as an optimal combination of a set of several univariate and multivariate time series models. The large computational experiment carried out using out-of-sample forecasts for every hour and day allows withdrawing statistically sound conclusions

Sistema de simulación de escenarios de ciclos avanzados de combustible nuclear en transición = Simulation system for advanced fuel cycle transition scenarios

El estudio de los ciclos del combustible nuclear requieren de herramientas computacionales o "códigos" versátiles para dar respuestas al problema multicriterio de evaluar los actuales ciclos o las capacidades de las diferentes estrategias y escenarios con potencial de desarrollo en a nivel nacional, regional o mundial. Por otra parte, la introducción de nuevas tecnologías para reactores y procesos industriales hace que los códigos existentes requieran nuevas capacidades para evaluar la transición del estado actual del ciclo del combustible hacia otros más avanzados y sostenibles. Brevemente, esta tesis se centra en dar respuesta a las principales preguntas, en términos económicos y de recursos, al análisis de escenarios de ciclos de combustible, en particular, para el análisis de los diferentes escenarios del ciclo del combustible de relativa importancia para España y Europa. Para alcanzar este objetivo ha sido necesaria la actualización y el desarrollo de nuevas capacidades del código TR_EVOL (Transition Evolution code). Este trabajo ha sido desarrollado en el Programa de Innovación Nuclear del CIEMAT desde el año 2010. Esta tesis se divide en 6 capítulos. El primer capítulo ofrece una visión general del ciclo de combustible nuclear, sus principales etapas y los diferentes tipos utilizados en la actualidad o en desarrollo para el futuro. Además, se describen las fuentes de material nuclear que podrían ser utilizadas como combustible (uranio y otros). También se puntualizan brevemente una serie de herramientas desarrolladas para el estudio de estos ciclos de combustible nuclear. El capítulo 2 está dirigido a dar una idea básica acerca de los costes involucrados en la generación de electricidad mediante energía nuclear. Aquí se presentan una clasificación de estos costos y sus estimaciones, obtenidas en la bibliografía, y que han sido evaluadas y utilizadas en esta tesis. Se ha incluido también una breve descripción del principal indicador económico utilizado en esta tesis, el “coste nivelado de la electricidad”. El capítulo 3 se centra en la descripción del código de simulación desarrollado para el estudio del ciclo del combustible nuclear, TR_EVOL, que ha sido diseñado para evaluar diferentes opciones de ciclos de combustibles. En particular, pueden ser evaluados las diversos reactores con, posiblemente, diferentes tipos de combustibles y sus instalaciones del ciclo asociadas. El módulo de evaluaciones económica de TR_EVOL ofrece el coste nivelado de la electricidad haciendo uso de las cuatro fuentes principales de información económica y de la salida del balance de masas obtenido de la simulación del ciclo en TR_EVOL. Por otra parte, la estimación de las incertidumbres en los costes también puede ser efectuada por el código. Se ha efectuado un proceso de comprobación cruzada de las funcionalidades del código y se descrine en el Capítulo 4. El proceso se ha aplicado en cuatro etapas de acuerdo con las características más importantes de TR_EVOL, balance de masas, composición isotópica y análisis económico. Así, la primera etapa ha consistido en el balance masas del ciclo de combustible nuclear actual de España. La segunda etapa se ha centrado en la comprobación de la composición isotópica del flujo de masas mediante el la simulación del ciclo del combustible definido en el proyecto CP-ESFR UE. Las dos últimas etapas han tenido como objetivo validar el módulo económico. De este modo, en la tercera etapa han sido evaluados los tres principales costes (financieros, operación y mantenimiento y de combustible) y comparados con los obtenidos por el proyecto ARCAS, omitiendo los costes del fin del ciclo o Back-end, los que han sido evaluado solo en la cuarta etapa, haciendo uso de costes unitarios y parámetros obtenidos a partir de la bibliografía. En el capítulo 5 se analizan dos grupos de opciones del ciclo del combustible nuclear de relevante importancia, en términos económicos y de recursos, para España y Europa. Para el caso español, se han simulado dos grupos de escenarios del ciclo del combustible, incluyendo estrategias de reproceso y extensión de vida de los reactores. Este análisis se ha centrado en explorar las ventajas y desventajas de reprocesado de combustible irradiado en un país con una “relativa” pequeña cantidad de reactores nucleares. Para el grupo de Europa se han tratado cuatro escenarios, incluyendo opciones de transmutación. Los escenarios incluyen los reactores actuales utilizando la tecnología reactor de agua ligera y ciclo abierto, un reemplazo total de los reactores actuales con reactores rápidos que queman combustible U-Pu MOX y dos escenarios del ciclo del combustible con transmutación de actínidos minoritarios en una parte de los reactores rápidos o en sistemas impulsados por aceleradores dedicados a transmutación. Finalmente, el capítulo 6 da las principales conclusiones obtenidas de esta tesis y los trabajos futuros previstos en el campo del análisis de ciclos de combustible nuclear. ABSTRACT The study of the nuclear fuel cycle requires versatile computational tools or “codes” to provide answers to the multicriteria problem of assessing current nuclear fuel cycles or the capabilities of different strategies and scenarios with potential development in a country, region or at world level. Moreover, the introduction of new technologies for reactors and industrial processes makes the existing codes to require new capabilities to assess the transition from current status of the fuel cycle to the more advanced and sustainable ones. Briefly, this thesis is focused in providing answers to the main questions about resources and economics in fuel cycle scenario analyses, in particular for the analysis of different fuel cycle scenarios with relative importance for Spain and Europe. The upgrade and development of new capabilities of the TR_EVOL code (Transition Evolution code) has been necessary to achieve this goal. This work has been developed in the Nuclear Innovation Program at CIEMAT since year 2010. This thesis is divided in 6 chapters. The first one gives an overview of the nuclear fuel cycle, its main stages and types currently used or in development for the future. Besides the sources of nuclear material that could be used as fuel (uranium and others) are also viewed here. A number of tools developed for the study of these nuclear fuel cycles are also briefly described in this chapter. Chapter 2 is aimed to give a basic idea about the cost involved in the electricity generation by means of the nuclear energy. The main classification of these costs and their estimations given by bibliography, which have been evaluated in this thesis, are presented. A brief description of the Levelized Cost of Electricity, the principal economic indicator used in this thesis, has been also included. Chapter 3 is focused on the description of the simulation tool TR_EVOL developed for the study of the nuclear fuel cycle. TR_EVOL has been designed to evaluate different options for the fuel cycle scenario. In particular, diverse nuclear power plants, having possibly different types of fuels and the associated fuel cycle facilities can be assessed. The TR_EVOL module for economic assessments provides the Levelized Cost of Electricity making use of the TR_EVOL mass balance output and four main sources of economic information. Furthermore, uncertainties assessment can be also carried out by the code. A cross checking process of the performance of the code has been accomplished and it is shown in Chapter 4. The process has been applied in four stages according to the most important features of TR_EVOL. Thus, the first stage has involved the mass balance of the current Spanish nuclear fuel cycle. The second stage has been focused in the isotopic composition of the mass flow using the fuel cycle defined in the EU project CP-ESFR. The last two stages have been aimed to validate the economic module. In the third stage, the main three generation costs (financial cost, O&M and fuel cost) have been assessed and compared to those obtained by ARCAS project, omitting the back-end costs. This last cost has been evaluated alone in the fourth stage, making use of some unit cost and parameters obtained from the bibliography. In Chapter 5 two groups of nuclear fuel cycle options with relevant importance for Spain and Europe are analyzed in economic and resources terms. For the Spanish case, two groups of fuel cycle scenarios have been simulated including reprocessing strategies and life extension of the current reactor fleet. This analysis has been focused on exploring the advantages and disadvantages of spent fuel reprocessing in a country with relatively small amount of nuclear power plants. For the European group, four fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor technology and open fuel cycle, a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycle scenarios with Minor Actinide transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems. Finally, Chapter 6 gives the main conclusions obtained from this thesis and the future work foreseen in the field of nuclear fuel cycle analysis.

Compatison of S-SI, A-SI and CDTE technologies wording at the same conditions, after the first year of electricity production

Grid connected solar plants are a good opportunity for their use for research as a secondary objective. In countries were feed-in tariffs are still active, it is possible to include in the design of the solar plant elements for its use for research. In the case of the solar plant presented here both objectives are covered. The solar plant of this work is formed by PV modules of three different technologies: Multicrystalline, amorphous and CdTe. In one part of the solar plant, the three technologies are working at the same conditions, not only ambient conditions but also similar voltage and current input to the inverters. Both the commercial and the experimental parts of the solar plant have their own independent inverters with their meters but are finally connected to the same meter to inject. In this work we analyse the results for the first year of operation of the experimental solar plant. Productions of three different technologies in exactly the same conditions are compared and presented. According to the results, all the three technologies have conversion efficiencies dropping when the temperature increases. Amorphous module experiences the lesser reduction, whereas the multicrystalline module suffers the most.

Methodology for estimating building integrated photovoltaics electricity production under shadowing conditions and case study

Building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems are a relevant application of photovoltaics. In countries belonging to the International Energy Agency countries, 24% of total installed PV power corresponds to BIPV systems. Electricity losses caused by shadows over the PV generator have a significant impact on the performance of BIPV systems, being the major source of electricity losses. This paper presents a methodology to estimate electricity produced by BIPV systems which incorporates a model for shading losses. The proposed methodology has been validated on a one year study with real data from two similar PV systems placed on the south façade of a building belonging to the Technical University of Madrid. This study has covered all weather conditions: clear, partially overcast and fully overcast sky. Results of this study are shown at different time scales, resulting that the errors committed by the best performing model are below 1% and 3% in annual and daily electricity estimation. The use of models which account for the reduced performance at low irradiance levels also improves the estimation of generated electricity.

A Valuation of SAREB, the Spanish “Bad Bank”, Upside Using the Real Options Methodology

This paper develops a model to analyze the upside potential of profitability of the SAREB (“Asset Management Company for Assets Arising from Bank Restructuring”), the Spanish “Bad Bank”. The model is based in the Real Options methodology, that is especially adequate due to the convergence of two elements, (i) depreciated assets with a high upside potential, and (ii) a highly volatile market as it has shown to be the real estate Spanish market. Our results suggest that the SAREB has a higher than expected profitability potentialthat would be dedicated to increase the return to its shareholders, mainly private banks. Consequently we also show that after the financial crisis are emerging two types of banks in Spain, in one hand the losers who are transferring their real estate assets at a deep discount, and in the other hand the winners, capturing the upside potential of those assets as shareholders of SAREB, and consequently consolidating their strength in the Spanish Real Estate Industry. It is worth to mention that Governments should make an effort in properly redistribute the wealth generated by the real Estate industry.

Análisis de viabilidad e implantación de sistemas de cogeneración en el sector residencial

En la actualidad la generación y utilización eficientes de la energía es el vector principal que permite el desarrollo sostenible en el marco ambiental, económico, seguro y rentable. Todo ello genera una necesidad en el ser humano de guiar a los avances tecnológicos hacia una manera cada vez más eficiente de generar nuestras necesidades básicas, como es el caso de la energía. La cogeneración ha sido uno de los resultados positivos en la búsqueda de la eficiencia energética, debido a tratarse de un sistema de producción simultánea de calor y electricidad partiendo inicialmente de un combustible como energía primaria. Es por ello, que en el presente proyecto se estudia, analiza y propone la posibilidad de implantar sistemas de cogeneración en el sector residencial, un sector que podría beneficiarse enormemente de los beneficios que ofrecen dichos sistemas. En una primera parte se analiza la tecnología de cogeneración y sus variantes, como son, la microcogeneración y la trigeneración. También se muestra la evolución legislativa que han sufrido estos sistemas. En una segunda parte se ha tomado un caso modelo, un edificio de 72 viviendas con sistema de calderas centralizado convencional, y se ha estudiado la posibilidad de implantar un sistema de cogeneración. Para ello se han calculado previamente las demandas energéticas del edificio y se han ido proponiendo diferentes modos de operación para cubrir dichas demandas por medio de sistemas de microcogeneración o cogeneración. Finalmente, una vez valoradas las opciones se muestra la elegida y se efectúa un análisis económico ABSTRACT Nowadays the efficient generation of energy is the main vector that allows sustainable development in environmental, economic, safety and cost effectiveness. All this generates a need in humans to lead to new technological advances towards an even more efficient way to generate our basic needs, such as energy. Cogeneration has been one of the positive results in the search for energy efficiency, due to the fact that it is a system of simultaneous production of heat and electricity initially starting from a primary energy fuel. It is for this reason that this project studies, analyzes and proposes the possibility of introducing cogeneration systems in the residential sector, a sector that could benefit greatly from the benefits offered by these systems. In the first part, cogeneration technology and its variants are analyzed, like, micro-cogeneration and trigeneration. The legislative evolutions that have suffered these systems are also displayed. In a second part, a model case has been taken; a building of 72 flats with conventional centralized boiler system, the possibility of introducing a cogeneration system has been studied. Previously the energy demands of the building have been calculated proposing different operating modes to meet those demands through micro-CHP or cogeneration systems. Finally, once the options are valued the chosen one is shown and an economic analysis is performed.

Unit Commitment and Electricity Prices Forecasting for Market Strategy Preparation in Interconnected Systems

In this paper we present a solution for building a better strategy to take part in external electricity markets. For an optimal strategy development, both the internal system costs as well as the future values of the series of electricity prices in external markets need to be known. But in practice, the real problems that must be faced are that both future electricity prices and costs are unknown. Thus, the first ones must be modeled and forecasted and the costs must be calculated. Our methodology for building an optimal strategy consists of three steps: The first step is modeling and forecasting market prices in external systems. The second step is the cost calculation on internal system taking into account the expected prices in the first step. The third step is based on the results of the previous steps, and consists of preparing the bids for external markets. The main goal is to reduce consumers' costs unlike many others that are oriented to increase GenCo's profits.

Economic Impacts of Rules-based vs Risk-based Cybersecurity Regulations in Critical Infrastructure Providers (Bulk Electricity Providers)

Economics of Cybersecurity Part 2. SPSI-2015-01-0024.

Enhancing Conservation Options: An Argument for Statutory Recognition of Options to Purchase Conservation Easements (OPCEs)

The most dynamic component of the conservation movement in the United States for the past three decades has been land conservation transactions. In the United States, land conservation organizations have protected roughly 40 million acres of land through transactions. Most of these acres have been protected using conservation easements. Climate change threatens the vast conservation edifice created by land conservation transactions. The tools of land conservation transactions are, traditionally, stationary. Climate change means that the resources that land conservation transactions were intended to protect may no longer remain on the land protected. Options to purchase conservation easements (OPCEs) have long played a modest but important role in conservation law practice. In the world climate change is creating, with its substantial uncertainties and shifting windows of opportunity, OPCEs can serve more complicated and strategic purposes. The ability of OPCEs to serve important roles in protecting land in the context of uncertainty would be significantly increased if state legislatures amend current conservation easement statutes to (1) specifically recognize OPCEs, (2) immunize OPCEs from a range of potential common law challenges, (3) guarantee the durability and transferability of OPCEs, and (4) integrate OPCEs into the burgeoning body of conservation easement law. These statutory amendments would do for OPCEs what conservation easement statutes have done for conservation easements: transform them into an essential multi-purpose tool for conservation in a changing world.