Energy saving innovations, non-exhaustible sources of energy and long-run: what would happen if we run out of oil?

We formulate and solve a model of factor saving technological improvement considering three factors of production: labor, capital and energy. The productive activities have three main characteristics: first, in order to use capital goods firms need energy; second, there are two sources of energy: non-exhaustible and exhaustible; third, capital goods can be of different qualities and the quality of these goods can be changed along two dimensions -reducing the need of energy or changing the source of energy used in the production process. The economy goes through three stages of development after industrialization. In the first, firms make use of exhaustible energy and the e¢ ciency in the use of energy is constant. In the second stage, as the price of energy grows the e¢ ciency in its use is increased. In the third stage, the price of exhaustible sources is so high that firms have incentives to use non-exhaustible sources of energy. During this stage the price of energy is constant. In this set up, the end of the oil age has level effects on consumption and output but it does not cause the collapse of the economic system.

Economic shocks and crime: evidence from the crash of ponzi schemes

In November 2008, Colombian authorities dismantled a network of Ponzi schemes, making hundreds of thousands of investors lose tens of millions of dollars throughout the country. Using original data on the geographical incidence of the Ponzi schemes, this paper estimates the impact of their break down on crime. We find that the crash of Ponzi schemes differentially exacerbated crime in affected districts. Confirming the intuition of the standard economic model of crime, this effect is only present in places with relatively weak judicial and law enforcement institutions, and with little access to consumption smoothing mechanisms such as microcredit. In addition, we show that, with the exception of economically-motivated felonies such as robbery, violent crime is not affected by the negative shock.

Natural resource windfalls and efficiency of local government expenditures: evidence from Peru

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditures. Using a rich dataset of expenditures and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for period 2001-2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom of mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls whereas those benefited with modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom. However, the fact that increases in efficiency were related to reductions in public good provision casts doubts about the beneficial effects of political competition in promoting efficiency.

ARX, model thinking: taxonomy and operativity of an architectural process

The purpose of this work was to establish a taxonomy of hand made model construction as a platform for an approach to project an operative method in architecture. It was therefore studied and catalogued in a systematic approach a broad model production in the work of ARX. A wide range of families and sub-families of models were found, with different purposes according to each phase of development, from searching steps for a new possible configuration to detailed refined decisions. This working method revealed as most relevant characteristics, the grounds for a potential personal reflection and open discussion on project method, its flexibility on space modeling, an accuracy on the representation of real construction situations and its constant and stimulating opening to new suggestions. This research helped on a meta-reflection about this method, having been useful on creating a consciousness of processes that pretend to become an autonomous language, knowledge that might become useful to those who pretend to implement a haptic modus operandi in the work of an architectural project.

ICOM 2010: half a century of changes and impasse

Half a century, from 1947 to 2010, is enough for us to take stock of the impact of the “ideology of Development” on Heritage. An ideology induced by UNESCO and by ICOM. What has changed and what is still in an impasse? What effects has this ideology had on Heritage? It is after making this assessment that we can better understand the extent to which the theme of this 22nd ICOM General Conference – Shangai 2010 is ultimately an obvious product of that influence.

Establishing a community of practice of researchers, practitioners, policy-makers and communities to sustainably manage environmental health risks in Ecuador

The Sustainably Managing Environmental Health Risk in Ecuador project was launched in 2004 as a partnership linking a large Canadian university with leading Cuban and Mexican institutes to strengthen the capacities of four Ecuadorian universities for leading community-based learning and research in areas as diverse as pesticide poisoning, dengue control, water and sanitation, and disaster preparedness. By 2009, train-the-trainer project initiation involved 27 participatory action research Master’s theses in 15 communities where 1200 community learners participated in the implementation of associated interventions. This led to establishment of innovative Ecuadorian-led master’s and doctoral programs, and a Population Health Observatory on Collective Health, Environment and Society for the Andean region based at the Universidad Andina Simon Bolivar. Building on this network, numerous initiatives were begun, such as an internationally funded research project to strengthen dengue control in the coastal community of Machala, and establishment of a local community eco-health centre focusing on determinants of health near Cuenca. Alliances of academic and non-academic partners from the South and North provide a promising orientation for learning together about ways of addressing negative trends of development. Assessing the impacts and sustainability of such processes, however, requires longer term monitoring of results and related challenges.

The Assault on Human Rigths and the Resilience of the Andean Dream: Health Inequities in Ecuador. IV Annual Distinguished Lecture sponsored by the Center for Research on Ethnicity, Culture and Health; School of Public Health; University of Michigan

The point of departure for these reflections is life, since its protection is the central purpose encouraging the defense of human rights and of public health. Life in the Andes has an exceptional diversity. Particularly in Ecuador, my country, this diversity constitutes a characteristic sign that is expressed in two main forms: natural megadiversity and multiculturalism. Indeed, Ecuador’s small territory synthesizes practically all types of lifezones that exist on Earth, having received the gift of high average rates of solar energy and abundant nutritional sources, which have facilitated the natural reproduction of countless species that show their beautiful vitality in the variety of ecosystems that compose the Andean mountain range, the tropical plains, the Amazon humid forests, and the Galapagos Islands. But besides being a highly biodiverse country, it is also a plurinational and multi-cultural society, in which the activity of human beings, organized into social conglomerates of different historical and cultural backgrounds, have formed more than a dozen nations and peoples. Regrettably this natural and human wealth has not been able to bear its best fruits due to the violent operation of a deep social inequity – unfortunately also one of the highest in the Americas—which conspires against life and is reproduced in national and international inequitable relations. This structural inequity has changed its form throughout the centuries and currently has reached its highest and most perverse level of development.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

The economic impact of genetically modified cotton on South African smallholders: Yield, profit and health effects

Results of a large-scale survey of resource-poor smallholder cotton farmers in South Africa over three years conclusively show that adopters of Bt cotton have benefited in terms of higher yields, lower pesticide use, less labour for pesticide application and substantially higher gross margins per hectare. These benefits were clearly related to the technology, and not to preferential adoption by farmers who were already highly efficient. The smallest producers are shown to have benefited from adoption of the Bt variety as much as, if not more than, larger producers. Moreover, evidence from hospital records suggests a link between declining pesticide poisonings and adoption of the Bt variety.

Autocyclic erosion in tidal marshes

A common mode whereby destruction of coastal lowlands occurs is frontal erosion. The edge cliffing, nonetheless, is also an inherent aspect of salt marsh development in many northwest European tidal marshes. Quite a few geomorphologists in the earlier half of the past century recognized such edge erosion as a definite repetitive stage within an autocyclic mode of marsh growth. A shift in research priorities during the past decades (primarily because of coastal management concerns, however) has resulted in an enhanced focus on sediment-flux measurement campaigns on salt marshes. This, somewhat "object-oriented" strategy hindered any further development of the once-established autocyclic growth concept, which virtually has gone into oblivion in recent times. This work makes an attempt to resurrect the notion of autocyclicity by employing its premises to address edge erosion in tidal marshes. Through a review of intertidal morphosedimentology the underlying framework for autocyclicity is envisaged. The phenomenon is demonstrated in the Holocene salt marsh plain of Moricambe basin in NW England that displays several distinct phases of marsh retreat in the form of abandoned clifflets. The suite of abandoned shorelines and terraces has been identified in detailed field mapping that followed analysis of topographic maps and aerial photographs. Vertical trends in marsh plain sediments are recorded in trenches for signs of past marsh front movements. The characteristic sea level history of the area offers an opportunity to differentiate the morphodynamic variability induced in the autocyclic growth of the marsh plain in scenarios of rising and falling sea level and the accompanied change in sediment budget. The ideas gathered are incorporated to construct a conceptual model that links temporal extent of marsh erosion to inner tidal flat sediment budget and sea level tendency. The review leads to recognition of the necessity of adopting an holistic approach in the morphodynamic investigations where marshes should be treated as a component within the "marsh-mudflat system" as each element apparently modulates evolution of the other, with an eventual linkage to subtidal channels. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The analysis of ranked observations of soil structure using indicator geostatistics

Structure is an important physical feature of the soil that is associated with water movement, the soil atmosphere, microorganism activity and nutrient uptake. A soil without any obvious organisation of its components is known as apedal and this state can have marked effects on several soil processes. Accurate maps of topsoil and subsoil structure are desirable for a wide range of models that aim to predict erosion, solute transport, or flow of water through the soil. Also such maps would be useful to precision farmers when deciding how to apply nutrients and pesticides in a site-specific way, and to target subsoiling and soil structure stabilization procedures. Typically, soil structure is inferred from bulk density or penetrometer resistance measurements and more recently from soil resistivity and conductivity surveys. To measure the former is both time-consuming and costly, whereas observations made by the latter methods can be made automatically and swiftly using a vehicle-mounted penetrometer or resistivity and conductivity sensors. The results of each of these methods, however, are affected by other soil properties, in particular moisture content at the time of sampling, texture, and the presence of stones. Traditional methods of observing soil structure identify the type of ped and its degree of development. Methods of ranking such observations from good to poor for different soil textures have been developed. Indicator variograms can be computed for each category or rank of structure and these can be summed to give the sum of indicator variograms (SIV). Observations of the topsoil and subsoil structure were made at four field sites where the soil had developed on different parent materials. The observations were ranked by four methods and indicator and the sum of indicator variograms were computed and modelled for each method of ranking. The individual indicators were then kriged with the parameters of the appropriate indicator variogram model to map the probability of encountering soil with the structure represented by that indicator. The model parameters of the SIVs for each ranking system were used with the data to krige the soil structure classes, and the results are compared with those for the individual indicators. The relations between maps of soil structure and selected wavebands from aerial photographs are examined as basis for planning surveys of soil structure. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Making development simple. The genetic deterministic hypothesis for economic development

This paper discusses the dangers inherent in allempting to simplify something as complex as development. It does this by exploring the Lynn and Vanhanen theory of deterministic development which asserts that varying levels of economic development seen between countries can be explained by differences in 'national intelligence' (national IQ). Assuming that intelligence is genetically determined, and as different races have been shown to have different IQ, then they argue that economic development (measured as GDP/capita) is largely a function of race and interventions to address imbalances can only have a limited impact. The paper presents the Lynne and Vanhanen case and critically discusses the data and analyses (linear regression) upon which it is based. It also extends the cause-effect basis of Lynne and Vanhanen's theory for economic development into human development by using the Human Development Index (HDI). It is argued that while there is nothing mathematically incorrect with their calculations, there are concerns over the data they employ. Even more fundamentally it is argued that statistically significant correlations between the various components of the HDI and national IQ can occur via a host of cause-effect pathways, and hence the genetic determinism theory is far from proven. The paper ends by discussing the dangers involved in the use of over-simplistic measures of development as a means of exploring cause-effect relationships. While the creators of development indices such as the HDI have good intentions, simplistic indices can encourage simplistic explanations of under-development. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Carbon dioxide induced stomatal closure increases radiative forcing of climate via a rapid reduction in low cloud

We performed an ensemble of twelve five-year experiments using a coupled climate-carbon-cycle model with scenarios of prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration; CO2 was instantaneously doubled or quadrupled at the start of the experiments. Within these five years, climate feedback is not significantly influenced by the effects of climate change on the carbon system. However, rapid changes take place, within much less than a year, due to the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomatal conductance, leading to adjustment in the shortwave cloud radiative effect over land, due to a reduction in low cloud cover. This causes a 10% enhancement to the radiative forcing due to CO2, which leads to an increase in the equilibrium warming of 0.4 and 0.7 K for doubling and quadrupling. The implications for calibration of energy-balance models are discussed.

Understanding and production of prosody in children with Williams syndrome: A developmental trajectory approach

This study investigated the development of three aspects of linguistic prosody in a group of children with Williams syndrome compared to typically developing children. The prosodic abilities investigated were: (1) the ability to understand and use prosody to make specific words or syllables stand out in an utterance (focus); (2) the ability to understand and use prosody to disambiguate complex noun phrases (chunking); (3) the ability to understand and use prosody to regulate conversational behaviour (turn-end). The data were analysed using a cross-sectional developmental trajectory approach. The results showed that, relative to chronological age, there was a delayed onset in the development of the ability of children with WS to use prosody to signal the most important word in an utterance (the focus function). Delayed rate of development was found for all the other aspects of expressive and receptive prosody under investigation. However, when non-verbal mental age was taken into consideration, there were no differences between the children with WS and the controls neither with the onset nor with the rate of development for any of the prosodic skills under investigation apart from the ability to use prosody in order to regulate conversational behaviour. We conclude that prosody is not a ‘preserved’ cognitive skill in WS. The genetic factors, development in other cognitive domains and environmental influences affect developmental pathways and as a result, development proceeds along an atypical trajectory.

The economic impact of genetically modified cotton on South African smallholders: Yield, profit and health effects

Results of a large-scale survey of resource-poor smallholder cotton farmers in South Africa over three years conclusively show that adopters of Bt cotton have benefited in terms of higher yields, lower pesticide use, less labour for pesticide application and substantially higher gross margins per hectare. These benefits were clearly related to the technology, and not to preferential adoption by farmers who were already highly efficient. The smallest producers are shown to have benefited from adoption of the Bt variety as much as, if not more than, larger producers. Moreover, evidence from hospital records suggests a link between declining pesticide poisonings and adoption of the Bt variety.