On the significance of omitted variables in intersection crash modeling

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causes and contributing factors—rest upon the pursuit of numerous lines of research inquiry. The research community has focused considerable attention on analytical methods development (negative binomial models, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might logically seek to know which lines of inquiry might provide the most significant improvements in understanding crash causation and/or prediction. It is the contention of this paper that the exclusion of important variables (causal or surrogate measures of causal variables) cause omitted variable bias in model estimation and is an important and neglected line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant opportunities to better understand contributing factors and/or causes of crashes. This study examines the role of important variables (other than Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)) that are generally omitted from intersection crash prediction models. In addition to the geometric and traffic regulatory information of intersection, the proposed model includes many spatial factors such as local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools—representing a mix of potential environmental and human factors that are theoretically important, but rarely used. Results suggest that these variables in addition to AADT have significant explanatory power, and their exclusion leads to omitted variable bias. Provided is evidence that variable exclusion overstates the effect of minor road AADT by as much as 40% and major road AADT by 14%.

A research framework for assessing the effects of heat stress on construction workers

Hong Kong in summer (June - October) is hot and humid. Construction workers have to undertake physically demanding activities and often in confined spaces. They are vulnerable to heat stress in summer hence health and safety measures associated to heat stress measured by scientific and clinical parameters are urgently needed. This paper provides an initial report of a research project funded by the Research Grants Council (RGC) of the HKSAR. The aim of this study is to develop a set of indices measured by clinical and scientific methods to detect impending attacks of heat stress. These indices would be of tremendous value in better safeguarding workers’ health and safety by reducing the occurrences of heat stress on site. This paper firstly reports on the statistics of construction incidents arising from heat stress. Qualitative and quantitative research methods applied in conducting the research are discussed. It is believed that the construction industry and the government would benefit a lot as a result of this study.

Developing safer passengers through a school-based injury prevention program

Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of death among young people. Fourteen percent of adolescents aged 13-14 report passenger-related injuries within three months. Intervention programs typically focus on young drivers and overlook passengers as potential protective influences. Graduated Driver Licensing restricts passenger numbers, and this study focuses on a complementary school-based intervention to increase passengers’ personal- and peer-protective behavior. The aim of this research was to assess the impact of the curriculum-based injury prevention program, Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY), on passenger-related risk-taking and injuries, and intentions to intervene in friends’ risky road behavior. SPIY was implemented in Grade 8 Health classes and evaluated using survey and focus group data from 843 students across 10 Australian secondary schools. Intervention students reported less passenger-related risk-taking six months following the program. Their intention to protect friends from underage driving also increased. The results of this study show that a comprehensive, school-based program targeting individual and social changes can increase adolescent passenger safety.

Adolescent involvement in anti-social and delinquent behaviours : predicting future injury risk

The purpose of this study was to challenge the broadly based focus of injury prevention strategies towards concern with the needs of young adolescents who engage in multiple anti-social and delinquent behaviours. Five hundred and forty 13-14 year olds reported on injuries and truancy, violence, illegal road behaviours, drug, and alcohol use. Engagement in these behaviours was found to contribute to the likelihood of an injury. Those engaging in the most anti-social and delinquent behaviours were around five times more likely to report medically-treated injuries in the past three months. Their likelihood of future injury was 1.8 times more likely when they were followed up three months later. The engagement in multiple delinquent and illegal behaviours thus significantly increased the likelihood of injury and identifies a particularly vulnerable group. The findings also suggest that reaching these young people represents a key target for change strategies in injury prevention programs.

Big-five personality factors affecting driving behaviours

The factors affecting driving behaviors are various and interact simultaneously. Therefore, study of their correlations affecting on driving behaviors is of interest. This paper reports a questionnaire survey in China, focusing on the effect of Big-Five factors on speeding, drink driving, and distracted driving while Akers' social learning theory and Homel's deterrence theory were applied. The results showed that personalities had significant effect on speeding and drink driving; social factors had significant effect on speeding and distracted driving; deterrence had significant effect on speeding and drink driving; however, social learning theory did not contribute to drink driving; deterrence did not affect distracted driving. The results were discussed along with the limitation of this study.

Big-five personality factors affecting pedestrian crossing behaviours

Human personality is an important component of psychological factors affecting pedestrian crossing. This paper reports a questionnaire survey on the effects of pedestrian personalities (including neuroticism, extraversion, openness, agreeableness and conscientiousness) on pedestrian violation in China. 675 feedbacks were obtained, of which 535 samples were valid for analysis. The results of the hierarchical regression analysis showed that educational level had significant effect on violation; agreeableness had significant effect on violation, conditional compliance and unconditional compliance; consciousness had significant effect on violation and conditional compliance; extraversion had significant effect on unconditional compliance; neuroticism had significant effect on violation; educational level had significant effect on violation. The results implied that psychological measures played a very important role in pedestrian safety.

Factors affecting pedestrian crossing behaviours at signalized crosswalks in urban areas in Beijing and Singapore

This paper reports an observation investigation of pedestrian crossing behaviors conducted at signalized crosswalks in urban areas in Singapore and Beijing on typical workdays. Each crosswalk was observed 3 times in different periods, i.e. normal hours, lunch hours, and rush hours. A total of 103,956 pedestrians were observed. The results showed that lane type, lane number, intersection type, and culture had significant effect on illegal pedestrian crossing in both cities; observation period had no significant effect on pedestrian violation in both cities; the violation rate in Singapore was lower than that in Beijing. However, observers reported that illegal crossing of vulnerable pedestrians, e.g. pregnant, the lame, old men and women, was more obvious in Singapore than that in Beijing. Evidence proved the hypothesis that the violations were related to pedestrians’ cognition of the definition of safety.

Experimental studies of wireless communication and GNSS kinematic positioning performance in high-mobility vehicle environments

In order to support intelligent transportation system (ITS) road safety applications such as collision avoidance, lane departure warnings and lane keeping, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) based vehicle positioning system has to provide lane-level (0.5 to 1 m) or even in-lane-level (0.1 to 0.3 m) accurate and reliable positioning information to vehicle users. However, current vehicle navigation systems equipped with a single frequency GPS receiver can only provide road-level accuracy at 5-10 meters. The positioning accuracy can be improved to sub-meter or higher with the augmented GNSS techniques such as Real Time Kinematic (RTK) and Precise Point Positioning (PPP) which have been traditionally used in land surveying and or in slowly moving environment. In these techniques, GNSS corrections data generated from a local or regional or global network of GNSS ground stations are broadcast to the users via various communication data links, mostly 3G cellular networks and communication satellites. This research aimed to investigate the precise positioning system performances when operating in the high mobility environments. This involves evaluation of the performances of both RTK and PPP techniques using: i) the state-of-art dual frequency GPS receiver; and ii) low-cost single frequency GNSS receiver. Additionally, this research evaluates the effectiveness of several operational strategies in reducing the load on data communication networks due to correction data transmission, which may be problematic for the future wide-area ITS services deployment. These strategies include the use of different data transmission protocols, different correction data format standards, and correction data transmission at the less-frequent interval. A series of field experiments were designed and conducted for each research task. Firstly, the performances of RTK and PPP techniques were evaluated in both static and kinematic (highway with speed exceed 80km) experiments. RTK solutions achieved the RMS precision of 0.09 to 0.2 meter accuracy in static and 0.2 to 0.3 meter in kinematic tests, while PPP reported 0.5 to 1.5 meters in static and 1 to 1.8 meter in kinematic tests by using the RTKlib software. These RMS precision values could be further improved if the better RTK and PPP algorithms are adopted. The tests results also showed that RTK may be more suitable in the lane-level accuracy vehicle positioning. The professional grade (dual frequency) and mass-market grade (single frequency) GNSS receivers were tested for their performance using RTK in static and kinematic modes. The analysis has shown that mass-market grade receivers provide the good solution continuity, although the overall positioning accuracy is worse than the professional grade receivers. In an attempt to reduce the load on data communication network, we firstly evaluate the use of different correction data format standards, namely RTCM version 2.x and RTCM version 3.0 format. A 24 hours transmission test was conducted to compare the network throughput. The results have shown that 66% of network throughput reduction can be achieved by using the newer RTCM version 3.0, comparing to the older RTCM version 2.x format. Secondly, experiments were conducted to examine the use of two data transmission protocols, TCP and UDP, for correction data transmission through the Telstra 3G cellular network. The performance of each transmission method was analysed in terms of packet transmission latency, packet dropout, packet throughput, packet retransmission rate etc. The overall network throughput and latency of UDP data transmission are 76.5% and 83.6% of TCP data transmission, while the overall accuracy of positioning solutions remains in the same level. Additionally, due to the nature of UDP transmission, it is also found that 0.17% of UDP packets were lost during the kinematic tests, but this loss doesn't lead to significant reduction of the quality of positioning results. The experimental results from the static and the kinematic field tests have also shown that the mobile network communication may be blocked for a couple of seconds, but the positioning solutions can be kept at the required accuracy level by setting of the Age of Differential. Finally, we investigate the effects of using less-frequent correction data (transmitted at 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 and 60 seconds interval) on the precise positioning system. As the time interval increasing, the percentage of ambiguity fixed solutions gradually decreases, while the positioning error increases from 0.1 to 0.5 meter. The results showed the position accuracy could still be kept at the in-lane-level (0.1 to 0.3 m) when using up to 20 seconds interval correction data transmission.

Speed enforcement in Australia : a changing policy landscape shaped by public opinion

- Speeding and crash involvement in Australia - Speed management in Australia - Jurisdictional differences - National Road Safety Strategy (2011-2020) - Auditor-General reviews of speed camera programs - The role of public opinion/feedback - Implications for speed management

Repeat speeding offenders : time to stop thinking of them as just ‘unlucky normal’ drivers

- Speeding and crash involvement in Australia - Speeding recidivist research in Queensland - Challenges from an Australian perspective - Defining speeding - Community attitudes to speeding - Auditor-General reviews of speed camera programs - Implications for future speed management

Repeat speeding offenders : results from research in Queensland, Australia

- Speeding and crash involvement in Australia - Speeding recidivist research in Queensland - Challenges from an Australian perspective - Auditor-General reviews of speed camera programs - Implications for future speed management

The prevalence and crash involvement of unlicensed drivers in Queensland

- Road safety implications of unlicensed driving - Present results from two studies conducted in Queensland examining: - the crash involvement of unlicensed drivers and the risks associated with the behaviour - the prevalence of unlicensed driving using a roadside survey method - Countermeasure options

Adoption of low-cost rail level crossing warning devices : an Australian case study

The objective of this chapter is to provide rail practitioners with a practical approach for determining safety requirements of low-cost level crossing warning devices (LCLCWDs) on an Australian railway by way of a case study. LCLCWDs, in theory, allow railway operators to improve the safety of passively controlled crossing by upgrading a larger number of level crossings with the same budget that would otherwise be used to upgrade these using the conventional active level crossing control technologies, e.g. track circuit initiated flashing light systems. The chapter discusses the experience and obstacles of adopting LCLCWDs in Australia, and demonstrates how the risk-based approach may be used to make the case for LCLCWDs.

The relationship between lower intelligence, crime and custodial outcomes : a brief literary review of a vulnerable group

The relationship between intellectual functioning and criminal offending has received considerable focus within the literature. While there remains debate regarding the existence (and strength) of this relationship, there is a wider consensus that individuals with below average functioning (in particular cognitive impairments) are disproportionately represented within the prison population. This paper focuses on research that has implications for the effective management of lower functioning individuals within correctional environments as well as the successful rehabilitation and release of such individuals back into the community. This includes a review of the literature regarding the link between lower intelligence and offending and the identification of possible factors that either facilitate (or confound) this relationship. The main themes to emerge from this review are that individuals with lower intellectual functioning continue to be disproportionately represented in custodial settings and that there is a need to increase the provision of specialised programs to cater for their needs. Further research is also needed into a range of areas including: (1) the reason for this over-representation in custodial settings, (2) the existence and effectiveness of rehabilitation and release programs that cater for lower IQ offenders, (3) the effectiveness of custodial alternatives for this group (e.g. intensive corrections orders) and (4) what post-custodial release services are needed to reduce the risk of recidivism.