Integrated project evaluation and selection using multiple-attribute decision-making technique

The evaluation and selection of industrial projects before investment decision is customarily done using marketing, technical and financial information. Subsequently, environmental impact assessment and social impact assessment are carried out mainly to satisfy the statutory agencies. Because of stricter environment regulations in developed and developing countries, quite often impact assessment suggests alternate sites, technologies, designs, and implementation methods as mitigating measures. This causes considerable delay to complete project feasibility analysis and selection as complete analysis requires to be taken up again and again till the statutory regulatory authority approves the project. Moreover, project analysis through above process often results sub-optimal project as financial analysis may eliminate better options, as more environment friendly alternative will always be cost intensive. In this circumstance, this study proposes a decision support system, which analyses projects with respect to market, technicalities, and social and environmental impact in an integrated framework using analytic hierarchy process, a multiple-attribute decision-making technique. This not only reduces duration of project evaluation and selection, but also helps select optimal project for the organization for sustainable development. The entire methodology has been applied to a cross-country oil pipeline project in India and its effectiveness has been demonstrated. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-criteria decision making approaches for supplier evaluation and selection:a literature review

Supplier evaluation and selection problem has been studied extensively. Various decision making approaches have been proposed to tackle the problem. In contemporary supply chain management, the performance of potential suppliers is evaluated against multiple criteria rather than considering a single factor-cost. This paper reviews the literature of the multi-criteria decision making approaches for supplier evaluation and selection. Related articles appearing in the international journals from 2000 to 2008 are gathered and analyzed so that the following three questions can be answered: (i) Which approaches were prevalently applied? (ii) Which evaluating criteria were paid more attention to? (iii) Is there any inadequacy of the approaches? Based on the inadequacy, if any, some improvements and possible future work are recommended. This research not only provides evidence that the multi-criteria decision making approaches are better than the traditional cost-based approach, but also aids the researchers and decision makers in applying the approaches effectively.

Antecedents and consequences of service quality in consumer evaluation of self-service internet technologies

Advances in technology coupled with increasing labour costs have caused service firms to explore self-service delivery options. Although some studies have focused on self-service and use of technology in service delivery, few have explored the role of service quality in consumer evaluation of technology-based self-service options. By integrating and extending the self-service quality framework the service evaluation model and the Technology Acceptance Model the authors address this emerging issue by empirically testing a comprehensive model that captures the antecedents and consequences of perceived service quality to predict continued customer interaction in the technology-based self-service context of Internet banking. Important service evaluation constructs like perceived risk, perceived value and perceived satisfaction are modelled in this framework. The results show that perceived control has the strongest influence on service quality evaluations. Perceived speed of delivery, reliability and enjoyment also have a significant impact on service quality perceptions. The study also found that even though perceived service quality, perceived risk and satisfaction are important predictors of continued interaction, perceived customer value plays a pivotal role in influencing continued interaction.

A methodology for the generation and evaluation of biorefinery process chains, in order to identify the most promising biorefineries for the EU

The topic of bioenergy, biofuels and bioproducts remains at the top of the current political and research agenda. Identification of the optimum processing routes for biomass, in terms of efficiency, cost, environment and socio-economics is vital as concern grows over the remaining fossil fuel resources, climate change and energy security. It is known that the only renewable way of producing conventional hydrocarbon fuels and organic chemicals is from biomass, but the problem remains of identifying the best product mix and the most efficient way of processing biomass to products. The aim is to move Europe towards a biobased economy and it is widely accepted that biorefineries are key to this development. A methodology was required for the generation and evaluation of biorefinery process chains for converting biomass into one or more valuable products that properly considers performance, cost, environment, socio-economics and other factors that influence the commercial viability of a process. In this thesis a methodology to achieve this objective is described. The completed methodology includes process chain generation, process modelling and subsequent analysis and comparison of results in order to evaluate alternative process routes. A modular structure was chosen to allow greater flexibility and allowing the user to generate a large number of different biorefinery configurations The significance of the approach is that the methodology is defined and is thus rigorous and consistent and may be readily re-examined if circumstances change. There was the requirement for consistency in structure and use, particularly for multiple analyses. It was important that analyses could be quickly and easily carried out to consider, for example, different scales, configurations and product portfolios and so that previous outcomes could be readily reconsidered. The result of the completed methodology is the identification of the most promising biorefinery chains from those considered as part of the European Biosynergy Project.

Reliability:its implications in production systems design

Research on production systems design has in recent years tended to concentrate on ‘software’ factors such as organisational aspects, work design, and the planning of the production operations. In contrast, relatively little attention has been paid to maximising the contributions made by fixed assets, particularly machines and equipment. However, as the cost of unproductive machine time has increased, reliability, particularly of machine tools, has become ever more important. Reliability theory and research has traditionally been based in the main on electrical and electronic equipment whereas mechanical devices, especially machine tools, have not received sufficiently objective treatment. A recently completed research project has considered the reliability of machine tools by taking sample surveys of purchasers, maintainers and manufacturers. Breakdown data were also collected from a number of engineering companies and analysed using both manual and computer techniques. Results obtained have provided an indication of those factors most likely to influence reliability and which in turn could lead to improved design and selection of machine tool systems. Statistical analysis of long-term field data has revealed patterns of trends of failure which could help in the design of more meaningful maintenance schemes.

Stakeholder performance measurement:general approaches and methods of economic evaluation

This paper begins by suggesting that when considering Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), even CSR as justified in terms of the business case, stakeholders are of great importance to corporations. In the UK the Company Law Review (DTI, 2002) has suggested that it is appropriate for UK companies to be managed upon the basis of an enlightened shareholder approach. Within this approach the importance of stakeholders, other than shareholders, is recognised as being instrumental in succeeding in providing shareholder value. Given the importance of these other stakeholders it is then important that corporate management measure and manage stakeholder performance. In order to do this there are two general approaches that could be adopted and these are the use of monetary values to reflect stakeholder value or cost and non-monetary values. In order to consider these approaches further this paper considered the possible use of these approaches for two stakeholder groups: namely employees and the environment. It concludes that there are ethical and practical difficulties with calculating economic values for stakeholder resources and so prefers a multi-dimensional approach to stakeholder performance measurement that does not use economic valuation.

A profile of low vision services in England the Low Vision Service Model Evaluation (LOVSME) project

In the UK, low vision rehabilitation is delivered by a wide variety of providers with different strategies being used to integrate services from health, social care and the voluntary sector. In order to capture the current diversity of service provision the Low vision Service Model Evaluation (LOVSME) project aimed to profile selected low vision services using published standards for service delivery as a guide. Seven geographically and organizationally varied low-vision services across England were chosen for their diversity and all agreed to participate. A series of questionnaires and follow-up visits were undertaken to obtain a comprehensive description of each service, including the staff workloads and the cost of providing the service. In this paper the strengths of each model of delivery are discussed, and examples of good practice identified. As a result of the project, an Assessment Framework tool has been developed that aims to help other service providers evaluate different aspects of their own service to identify any gaps in existing service provision, and will act as a benchmark for future service development.

Evaluation of the Heart of Birmingham teaching Primary Care Trust (HoBtPCT): My Choice Weight Management Programme:report commissioned by Heart of Birmingham teaching Primary Care Trust

This report details an evaluation of the My Choice Weight Management Programme undertaken by a research team from the School of Pharmacy at Aston University. The My Choice Weight Management Programme is delivered through community pharmacies and general practitioners (GPs) contracted to provide services by the Heart of Birmingham teaching Primary Care Trust. It is designed to support individuals who are ‘ready to change’ by enabling the individual to work with a trained healthcare worker (for example, a healthcare assistant, practice nurse or pharmacy assistant) to develop a care plan designed to enable the individual to lose 5-10% of their current weight. The Programme aims to reduce adult obesity levels; improve access to overweight and obesity management services in primary care; improve diet and nutrition; promote healthy weight and increased levels of physical activity in overweight or obese patients; and support patients to make lifestyle changes to enable them to lose weight. The Programme is available for obese patients over 18 years old who have a Body Mass Index (BMI) greater than 30 kg/m2 (greater than 25 kg/m2 in Asian patients) or greater than 28 kg/m2 (greater than 23.5 kg/m2 in Asian patients) in patients with co-morbidities (diabetes, high blood pressure, cardiovascular disease). Each participant attends weekly consultations over a twelve session period (the final iteration of these weekly sessions is referred to as ‘session twelve’ in this report). They are then offered up to three follow up appointments for up to six months at two monthly intervals (the final of these follow ups, taking place at approximately nine months post recruitment, is referred to as ‘session fifteen’ in this report). A review of the literature highlights the dearth of published research on the effectiveness of primary care- or community-based weight management interventions. This report may help to address this knowledge deficit. A total of 451 individuals were recruited on to the My Choice Weight Management Programme. More participants were recruited at GP surgeries (n=268) than at community pharmacies (n=183). In total, 204 participants (GP n=102; pharmacy n=102) attended session twelve and 82 participants (GP n=22; pharmacy 60) attended session fifteen. The unique demographic characteristics of My Choice Weight Management Programme participants – participants were recruited from areas with high levels of socioeconomic deprivation and over four-fifths of participants were from Black and Minority Ethnic groups; populations which are traditionally underserved by healthcare interventions – make the achievements of the Programme particularly notable. The mean weight loss at session 12 was 3.8 kg (equivalent to a reduction of 4.0% of initial weight) among GP surgery participants and 2.4 kg (2.8%) among pharmacy participants. At session 15 mean weight loss was 2.3 kg (2.2%) among GP surgery participants and 3.4 kg (4.0%) among pharmacy participants. The My Choice Weight Management Programme improved the general health status of participants between recruitment and session twelve as measured by the validated SF-12 questionnaire. While cost data is presented in this report, it is unclear which provider type delivered the Programme more cost-effectively. Attendance rates on the Programme were consistently better among pharmacy participants than among GP participants. The opinions of programme participants (both those who attended regularly and those who failed to attend as expected) and programme providers were explored via semi-structured interviews and, in the case of the participants, a selfcompletion postal questionnaire. These data suggest that the Programme was almost uniformly popular with both the deliverers of the Programme and participants on the Programme with 83% of questionnaire respondents indicating that they would be happy to recommend the Programme to other people looking to lose weight. Our recommendations, based on the evidence provided in this report, include: a. Any consideration of an extension to the study also giving comparable consideration to an extension of the Programme evaluation. The feasibility of assigning participants to a pharmacy provider or a GP provider via a central allocation system should also be examined. This would address imbalances in participant recruitment levels between provider type and allow for more accurate comparison of the effectiveness in the delivery of the Programme between GP surgeries and community pharmacies by increasing the homogeneity of participants at each type of site and increasing the number of Programme participants overall. b. Widespread dissemination of the findings from this review of the My Choice Weight Management Project should be undertaken through a variety of channels. c. Consideration of the inclusion of the following key aspects of the My Choice Weight Management Project in any extension to the Programme: i. The provision of training to staff in GP surgeries and community pharmacies responsible for delivery of the Programme prior to patient recruitment. ii. Maintaining the level of healthcare staff input to the Programme. iii. The regular schedule of appointments with Programme participants. iv. The provision of an increased variety of printed material. d. A simplification of the data collection method used by the Programme commissioners at the individual Programme delivery sites.

The design, evaluation and costing of biomass gasifiers

The objective of this study has been to enable a greater understanding of the biomass gasification process through the development and use of process and economic models. A new theoretical equilibrium model of gasification is described using the operating condition called the adiabatic carbon boundary. This represents an ideal gasifier working at the point where the carbon in the feedstock is completely gasified. The model can be used as a `target' against which the results of real gasifiers can be compared, but it does not simulate the results of real gasifiers. A second model has been developed which uses a stagewise approach in order to model fluid bed gasification, and its results have indicated that pyrolysis and the reactions of pyrolysis products play an important part in fluid bed gasifiers. Both models have been used in sensitivity analyses: the biomass moisture content and gasifying agent composition were found to have the largest effects on performance, whilst pressure and heat loss had lesser effects. Correlations have been produced to estimate the total installed capital cost of gasification systems and have been used in an economic model of gasification. This has been used in a sensitivity analysis to determine the factors which most affect the profitability of gasification. The most important influences on gasifier profitability have been found to be feedstock cost, product selling price and throughput. Given the economic conditions of late 1985, refuse gasification for the production of producer gas was found to be viable at throughputs of about 2.5 tonnes/h dry basis and above, in the metropolitan counties of the United Kingdom. At this throughput and above, the largest element of product gas cost is the feedstock cost, the cost element which is most variable.

Immunoinformatic evaluation of multiple epitope ensembles as vaccine candidates:E coli 536

Epitope prediction is becoming a key tool for vaccine discovery. Prospective analysis of bacterial and viral genomes can identify antigenic epitopes encoded within individual genes that may act as effective vaccines against specific pathogens. Since B-cell epitope prediction remains unreliable, we concentrate on T-cell epitopes, peptides which bind with high affinity to Major Histacompatibility Complexes (MHC). In this report, we evaluate the veracity of identified T-cell epitope ensembles, as generated by a cascade of predictive algorithms (SignalP, Vaxijen, MHCPred, IDEB, EpiJen), as a candidate vaccine against the model pathogen uropathogenic gram negative bacteria Escherichia coli (E-coli) strain 536 (O6:K15:H31). An immunoinformatic approach was used to identify 23 epitopes within the E-coli proteome. These epitopes constitute the most promiscuous antigenic sequences that bind across more than one HLA allele with high affinity (IC50 <50nM). The reliability of software programmes used, polymorphic nature of genes encoding MHC and what this means for population coverage of this potential vaccine are discussed.

Authors' response:clinical evaluation of the MPS 9000 macular pigment screener

As a research group with no commercial interest in any macular pigment optical density (MPOD) measurement devices or nutritional supplements, we feel that we were well-placed to carry out an independent clinical assessment of the reliability of the MPS 9000 (Tinsley Precision Instruments, Redhill, Surrey, UK). Our study was prompted by the fact that we could not find any reported coefficient of repeatability value within the literature, and none was provided by the manufacturer.1 We had planned to use this instrument in our own research studies investigating the impact of nutritional supplementation on MPOD. For this purpose, we needed …

Factors affecting human reliability in the chemical process industry

This research was concerned with identifying factors which may influence human reliability within chemical process plants - these factors are referred to as Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs). Following a period of familiarization within the industry, a number of case studies were undertaken covering a range of basic influencing factors. Plant records and site `lost time incident reports' were also used as supporting evidence for identifying and classifying PSFs. In parallel to the investigative research, the available literature appertaining to human reliability assessment and PSFs was considered in relation to the chemical process plan environment. As a direct result of this work, a PSF classification structure has been produced with an accompanying detailed listing. Phase two of the research considered the identification of important individual PSFs for specific situations. Based on the experience and data gained during phase one, it emerged that certain generic features of a task influenced PSF relevance. This led to the establishment of a finite set of generic task groups and response types. Similarly, certain PSFs influence some human errors more than others. The result was a set of error type key words, plus the identification and classification of error causes with their underlying error mechanisms. By linking all these aspects together, a comprehensive methodology has been forwarded as the basis of a computerized aid for system designers. To recapitulate, the major results of this research have been: One, the development of a comprehensive PSF listing specifically for the chemical process industries with a classification structure that facilitates future updates; and two, a model of identifying relevant SPFs and their order of priority. Future requirements are the evaluation of the PSF listing and the identification method. The latter must be considered both in terms of `useability' and its success as a design enhancer, in terms of an observable reduction in important human errors.

Cost models for engineering services

This thesis describes the procedure and results from four years research undertaken through the IHD (Interdisciplinary Higher Degrees) Scheme at Aston University in Birmingham, sponsored by the SERC (Science and Engineering Research Council) and Monk Dunstone Associates, Chartered Quantity Surveyors. A stochastic networking technique VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique) was used to model the pre-tender costs of public health, heating ventilating, air-conditioning, fire protection, lifts and electrical installations within office developments. The model enabled the quantity surveyor to analyse, manipulate and explore complex scenarios which previously had defied ready mathematical analysis. The process involved the examination of historical material costs, labour factors and design performance data. Components and installation types were defined and formatted. Data was updated and adjusted using mechanical and electrical pre-tender cost indices and location, selection of contractor, contract sum, height and site condition factors. Ranges of cost, time and performance data were represented by probability density functions and defined by constant, uniform, normal and beta distributions. These variables and a network of the interrelationships between services components provided the framework for analysis. The VERT program, in this particular study, relied upon Monte Carlo simulation to model the uncertainties associated with pre-tender estimates of all possible installations. The computer generated output in the form of relative and cumulative frequency distributions of current element and total services costs, critical path analyses and details of statistical parameters. From this data alternative design solutions were compared, the degree of risk associated with estimates was determined, heuristics were tested and redeveloped, and cost significant items were isolated for closer examination. The resultant models successfully combined cost, time and performance factors and provided the quantity surveyor with an appreciation of the cost ranges associated with the various engineering services design options.

Developing a model for consumer product safety evaluation

Safety enforcement practitioners within Europe and marketers, designers or manufacturers of consumer products need to determine compliance with the legal test of "reasonable safety" for consumer goods, to reduce the "risks" of injury to the minimum. To enable freedom of movement of products, a method for safety appraisal is required for use as an "expert" system of hazard analysis by non-experts in safety testing of consumer goods for implementation consistently throughout Europe. Safety testing approaches and the concept of risk assessment and hazard analysis are reviewed in developing a model for appraising consumer product safety which seeks to integrate the human factors contribution of risk assessment, hazard perception, and information processing. The model develops a system of hazard identification, hazard analysis and risk assessment which can be applied to a wide range of consumer products through use of a series of systematic checklists and matrices and applies alternative numerical and graphical methods for calculating a final product safety risk assessment score. It is then applied in its pilot form by selected "volunteer" Trading Standards Departments to a sample of consumer products. A series of questionnaires is used to select participating Trading Standards Departments, to explore the contribution of potential subjective influences, to establish views regarding the usability and reliability of the model and any preferences for the risk assessment scoring system used. The outcome of the two stage hazard analysis and risk assessment process is considered to determine consistency in results of hazard analysis, final decisions regarding the safety of the sample product and to determine any correlation in the decisions made using the model and alternative scoring methods of risk assessment. The research also identifies a number of opportunities for future work, and indicates a number of areas where further work has already begun.

An evaluation of Home Office extended interviews for police personnel

In this thesis the validity of an Assessment Centre (called 'Extended Interview') operated on behalf of the British police is investigated. This Assessment Centre (AC) is used to select from amongst internal candidates (serving policemen and policewomen) and external candidates (graduates) for places on an accelerated promotion scheme. The literature is reviewed with respect to history, content, structure, reliability, validity, efficiency and usefulness of ACs, and to contextual issues surrounding AC use. The history of, background to and content of police Extended Interviews (Els) is described, and research issues are identified. Internal validation involved regression of overall EI grades on measures from component tests, exercises, interviews and peer nominations. Four samples numbering 126, 73, 86 and 109 were used in this part of the research. External validation involved regression of three types of criteria - training grades, rank attained, and supervisory ratings - on all EI measures. Follow-up periods for job criteria ranged from 7 to 19 years. Three samples, numbering 223, 157 and 86, were used in this part of the research. In subsidiary investigations, supervisory ratings were factor analysed and criteria intercorrelated. For two of the samples involved in the external validition, clinical/judgemental prediction was compared with mechanical (unit-weighted composite) prediction. Main conclusions are that: (1) EI selection decisions were valid, but only for a job performance criterion; relatively low validity overall was interpreted principally in terms of the questionable job relatedness of the EI procedure; (2) Els as a whole had more validity than was reflected in final EI decisions; (3) assessors' use of information was not optimum, tending to over-emphasize subjectively derived information particularly from interviews; and (4) mechanical prediction was superior to clinical/judgemental prediction for five major criteria.