Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Survival, growth and immune activity of scallop Chlamys farreri cultured at different depths in Haizhou Bay (Yellow Sea, China) during hot season

Survival, growth and immune response of the scallop, Chlamys farreri, cultured in lantern nets at five different depths (2, 5, 10, 15, and 20 m below the sea surface) were studied in Haizhou Bay during the hot season (summer and autumn) of 2007. Survival and growth rates were quantified bimonthly. Immune activities in hemolymph (superoxide dismutase (SOD) and acid phosphatase (ACP)) were measured to evaluate the health of scallops at the end of the study. Environmental parameters at the five depths were also monitored during the experiment. Mortalities mainly occurred during summer. Survival of scallops suspended at 15 m (78.0%) and 20 m (86.7%) was significantly higher than at 2 m (62.9%), 5 m (60.8%) or 10 m (66.8%) at the end of the study. Mean shell height grew significantly faster at 10 m (205.0 mu m/d) and 20 m (236.9 mu m/d) than at 2, 5 or 15 m in summer (July 9 to September 1); however, shell growth rate at 20 m was significantly lower than at the other four depths in autumn (September 2 to November 6). In contrast to summer, scallops at 5 m grew faster (262.9 mu m/d) during autumn. The growth of soft tissue at different depths showed a similar trend to the shell. Growth rates of shell height and soft tissue were faster in autumn than in summer, with the exception of shell height at 20 m. SOD activity of scallops increased with depth, and ACP activity was significantly higher at 15 and 20 m than at other depths, which suggests that scallops were healthier near the bottom. Factors explaining the depth-related mortality and growth of scallops are also discussed. We conclude that the mass mortality of scallop, C. farreri, during summer can be prevented by moving the culture area to deeper water and yield can be maximized by suspending the scallops in deep water during summer and then transferring them to shallow water in autumn.

Carbon Dioxide Exchange Between the Atmosphere and an Alpine Shrubland Meadow During the Growing Season on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

In the present study, we used the eddy covariance method to measure CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and an alpine shrubland meadow ecosystem (37°36'N, 101°18'E; 3 250 m a.s.l.) on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China, during the growing season in 2003, from 20 April to 30 September. This meadow is dominated by formations of Potentilla fruticosa L. The soil is Mol-Cryic Cambisols. During the study period, the meadow was not grazed. The maximum rates of CO2 uptake and release derived from the diurnal course of CO2 flux were -9.38 and 5.02 μmol•m-2•s-1, respectively. The largest daily CO2 uptake was 1.7 g C•m-2•d-1 on 14 July, which is less than half that of an alpine Kobresia meadow ecosystem at similar latitudes. Daily CO2 uptake during the measurement period indicated that the alpine shrubland meadow ecosystem may behave as a sink of atmospheric CO2 during the growing season. The daytime CO2 uptake was correlated exponentially or linearly with the daily photo synthetic photon flux density each month. The daytime average water use efficiency of the ecosystem was 6.47 mg CO2/g H2O. The efficiency of the ecosystem increased with a decrease in vapor pressure deficit.

Growing season ecosystem respirations and associated component fluxes in two alpine meadows on the Tibetan Plateau

From 30 June to 24 September in 2003 ecosystem respiration (Re) in two alpine meadows on the Tibetan Plateau were measured using static chamber- and gas chromatography- (GC) based techniques. Simultaneously, plant removal treatments were set to partition Re into plant autotrophic respiration (Ra) and microbial heterotrophic respiration (Rh). Results indicated that Re had clear diurnal and seasonal variation patterns in both of the meadows. The seasonal variability of Re at both meadow sites was caused mainly by changes in Ra, rather than Rh. Moreover, at the Kobresia humilis meadow site (K_site), Ra and Rh accounted for 54% and 46% of Re, respectively. While at the Potentilla fruticosa scrub meadow (P_site), the counterparts accounted for 61% and 39%, respectively. T test showed that there was significant difference in Re rates between the two meadows (t = 2.387, P = 0.022). However, no significant difference was found in Rh rates, whereas a significant difference was observed in Ra rates between the two meadows. Thus, the difference in Re rate between the two meadows was mainly attributed to plant autotrophic respirations. During the growing season, the two meadows showed relatively low Q(10) values, suggesting that Re, especially Rh was not sensitive to temperature variation in the growing season. Additionally, Re and Rh at the K_site, as well as Rh at the P_site was negatively correlated with soil moisture, indicating that soil moisture would also play an important role in respirations.

Behavioural responses by yaks in different physiological states (lactating, dry or replacement heifers), when grazing natural pasture in the spring (dry and germinating) season on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau

Using heterogeneous vegetation in alpine grassland through grazing is a necessary component of deintensification of livestock systems and conservation of natural environments. However, better understanding of the dynamics of animal feeding behaviour would improve pasture and livestock grazing managements, particularly in the early part of the spring season when forage is scarce. The changes in behaviour may improve the use of poor pastures. Then, enhancing management practices may conserve pasture and improve animal productivity. Grazing behaviour over 24 In periods by yaks in different physiological states (lactating, dry and replacement heifers) was recorded in the early, dry and later, germinating period of the spring season. Under conditions of inadequate forage, the physiological state of yaks was not the primary factor affecting their grazing and ruminating behaviour. Forage and sward state affected yaks' grazing and ruminating behaviour to a greater extent. Generally, yaks had higher intake and spent more time grazing and ruminating during the later part of the spring season, following germination of forage, than during the earlier dry part of the season. However, the live weight of yaks was less during pasture germination than during the early dry part of the season because the herbage mass is low, and the yaks have to expend much energy to seek feed at this particular time. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Grazing behavior of lactating and non-lactating yaks in the summer season of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau

The effect of the physiological states of lactating vs. non-lactating (dry) on grazing behavior and herbage intake by yaks was examined in the summer season in the Qinghai alpine area under continuous stocking management. Intake rates were estimated over periods of 1 h by weighing the animals before and after grazing, retaining the feces and urine excreted, and applying a correction for insensible weight loss (the 1-h weight changes of yaks when non-eating before or after the intake rate measurement). It is hypothesized that the lactating yaks should eat more and spend more time eating than nonlactating yaks, because they expend more energy. In our experiment, there were no differences in the effect of physiological state (lactating vs. dry) of yaks observed on the rate of insensible weight loss, intake rate, grazing jaw movement rate, bites per grazing jaw movement, or bite mass. The dry yaks tended to eat more and spend more time eating than lactating yaks, but not significantly so. Compared with the dry yaks, the lactating yaks had a significantly lower bite rate and bites per bolus.

Effects of forage composition and growing season on methane emission from sheep in the Inner Mongolia steppe of China

Understanding the effects of dietary composition on methane (CH4) production of sheep can help us to understand grassland degradation resulting in an increase of CH4 emission from ruminant livestock and its resulting significance affecting CH4 source/sink in the grazing ecosystem. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of forage composition in the diet of sheep in July and August on CH4 production by sheep in the Inner Mongolia steppe. The four diet treatments were: (1) Leymus chinensis and Cleistogenes squarrosa (LC), (2) Leymus chinensis, Cleistogenes squarrosa and concentrate supplementation (LCC), (3) Artemisia frigida and Cleistogenes squarrosa (AC), and (4) Artemisia frigida, Cleistogenes squarrosa and concentrate supplementation (ACC). CH4 production was significantly lower in July than in August (31.4 and 36.2 g per sheep-unit per day, respectively). The daily average CH4 production per unit of digestive dry matter (DM), organic matter (OM) and neutral detergent fiber (NDF) increased by 10.9, 11.2 and 42.1% for the AC diet compared with the LC diet, respectively. Although concentrate supplementation in both the AC and LC diets increased total CH4 production per sheep per day, it improved sheep productivity and decreased CH4 production by 14.8, 12.5 and 14.8% per unit of DM, OM and NDF digested by the sheep, respectively. Our results suggested that in degraded grassland CH4 emission from sheep was increased and concentrate supplementation increased diet use efficiency. Sheep-grazing ecosystem seems to be a source of CH4 when the stocking rate is over 0.5 sheep-units ha(-1) during the growing season in the Inner Mongolia steppe.

The effect of supplementary feeds on the bodyweight of yaks in cold season

The present study was conducted to determine the effects of supplementary feeds, oat hay (OH), highland barley straw (HBS) and multi-nutrient blocks supplementation (UMMB) on reducing liveweight losses of both yak cows and calves grazed on low quality pastures during cold season. The trials of OH and HBS supplementation were conducted by using completely random design on 104 yak cows between 6 and 12 years of age as the following treatments: pure grazing (41 animals, body weight 230 67 kg) as control (CK); grazing+1.5 kg DM of OH per head daily (30 animals, body weight 216 28 kg); gazing. 1.5 kg DM of HBS per head daily (33 animals, body weight 221 34 kg). The trial of UMMB was conducted on three types of yaks, 1-year calves (8-12 months old, body weight 61.1 6.9 kg), 2-year calves (18-24 months old, 98.0 11.3 kg) and yak cows (164.5 27.1 (S.D.) kg) with 20 animals in control group (CK) and 20 animals in supplement group for each type by using completely random design as the following treatments: pure grazing for CK group; grazing+ 150, 250 and 500 g UMMB per day averagely for 1-year calf, 2-year calf and cow at night. The results indicate that the animals supplemented with oat hay received body weight gain (32 20.7 g day(-1)), while those supplemented with highland barley straw still suffered from body weight loss (-56.7 39.3 a day(-1)); UMMB supplementation can decrease the body weight loss by 109.7%, 86.6% and 63.4% for the 1-year calves, 2-year calves and yak cows, respectively, as compared with pure grazing. Around US$1.60 output can be achieved on the basis of US$1 input for UMMB supplementation in the farming systems of the 1-year calves, 2-year calves and yak cows, while US$1 input can produce US$1.55 and 1.14 output for OH and FIBS supplementations, respectively, in yak cows' farming system. It can be preliminary concluded that UMMB supplementation was the most economic way to alleviate body weight loss of grazing yaks over cold season, and the higher productive returns were obtained from OH supplementation for grazing yak cows during winter/spring months. © 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

A modified TRIMP to quantify the in-season training load of team sport players

Thatcher, Rhys, et al., 'A modified TRIMP to quantify the in-season training load of team sport players', Journal of Sport Sciences, (2007) 25(6) pp.629-634 RAE2008

Body composition and bone mineral density changes during a premier league season as measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry

Wallace, Joanne, et al., 'Body composition and bone mineral density changes during a premier league season as measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry', International Journal of Body Composition Research (2006) 4(2) pp.61-66 RAE2008

Monitoring the vegetation start of season (SOS) across the island of Ireland using the MERIS global vegetation index

The aim of this study was to develop a methodology, based on satellite remote sensing, to estimate the vegetation Start of Season (SOS) across the whole island of Ireland on an annual basis. This growing body of research is known as Land Surface Phenology (LSP) monitoring. The SOS was estimated for each year from a 7-year time series of 10-day composited, 1.2 km reduced resolution MERIS Global Vegetation Index (MGVI) data from 2003 to 2009, using the time series analysis software, TIMESAT. The selection of a 10-day composite period was guided by in-situ observations of leaf unfolding and cloud cover at representative point locations on the island. The MGVI time series was smoothed and the SOS metric extracted at a point corresponding to 20% of the seasonal MGVI amplitude. The SOS metric was extracted on a per pixel basis and gridded for national scale coverage. There were consistent spatial patterns in the SOS grids which were replicated on an annual basis and were qualitatively linked to variation in landcover. Analysis revealed that three statistically separable groups of CORINE Land Cover (CLC) classes could be derived from differences in the SOS, namely agricultural and forest land cover types, peat bogs, and natural and semi-natural vegetation types. These groups demonstrated that managed vegetation, e.g. pastures has a significantly earlier SOS than in unmanaged vegetation e.g. natural grasslands. There was also interannual spatio-temporal variability in the SOS. Such variability was highlighted in a series of anomaly grids showing variation from the 7-year mean SOS. An initial climate analysis indicated that an anomalously cold winter and spring in 2005/2006, linked to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation index value, delayed the 2006 SOS countrywide, while in other years the SOS anomalies showed more complex variation. A correlation study using air temperature as a climate variable revealed the spatial complexity of the air temperature-SOS relationship across the Republic of Ireland as the timing of maximum correlation varied from November to April depending on location. The SOS was found to occur earlier due to warmer winters in the Southeast while it was later with warmer winters in the Northwest. The inverse pattern emerged in the spatial patterns of the spring correlates. This contrasting pattern would appear to be linked to vegetation management as arable cropping is typically practiced in the southeast while there is mixed agriculture and mostly pastures to the west. Therefore, land use as well as air temperature appears to be an important determinant of national scale patterns in the SOS. The TIMESAT tool formed a crucial component of the estimation of SOS across the country in all seven years as it minimised the negative impact of noise and data dropouts in the MGVI time series by applying a smoothing algorithm. The extracted SOS metric was sensitive to temporal and spatial variation in land surface vegetation seasonality while the spatial patterns in the gridded SOS estimates aligned with those in landcover type. The methodology can be extended for a longer time series of FAPAR as MERIS will be replaced by the ESA Sentinel mission in 2013, while the availability of full resolution (300m) MERIS FAPAR and equivalent sensor products holds the possibility of monitoring finer scale seasonality variation. This study has shown the utility of the SOS metric as an indicator of spatiotemporal variability in vegetation phenology, as well as a correlate of other environmental variables such as air temperature. However, the satellite-based method is not seen as a replacement of ground-based observations, but rather as a complementary approach to studying vegetation phenology at the national scale. In future, the method can be extended to extract other metrics of the seasonal cycle in order to gain a more comprehensive view of seasonal vegetation development.

Rain dances in the dry season: overcoming the religious congruence fallacy

Religious congruence refers to consistency among an individual’s religious beliefs and attitudes, consistency between religious ideas and behavior, and religious ideas, identities, or schemas that are chronically salient and accessible to individuals across contexts and situations. Decades of anthropological, sociological, and psychological research establish that religious congruence is rare, but much thinking about religion presumes that it is common. The religious congruence fallacy occurs when interpretations or explanations unjustifiably presume religious congruence. I illustrate the ubiquity of religious incongruence, show how the religious congruence fallacy distorts thinking about religion, and outline an approach to help overcome the fallacy.