Analysis of temperature time-series: embedding dynamics into the MDS method

Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic and health aspects of the human life. Surface temperature time-series characterise Earth as a slow dynamics spatiotemporal system, evidencing long memory behaviour, typical of fractional order systems. Such phenomena are difficult to model and analyse, demanding for alternative approaches. This paper studies the complex correlations between global temperature time-series using the Multidimensional scaling (MDS) approach. MDS provides a graphical representation of the pattern of climatic similarities between regions around the globe. The similarities are quantified through two mathematical indices that correlate the monthly average temperatures observed in meteorological stations, over a given period of time. Furthermore, time dynamics is analysed by performing the MDS analysis over slices sampling the time series. MDS generates maps describing the stations’ locus in the perspective that, if they are perceived to be similar to each other, then they are placed on the map forming clusters. We show that MDS provides an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among temperature time-series, which are not perceived on traditional geographic maps. Moreover, MDS avoids sensitivity to the irregular distribution density of the meteorological stations.

Impact of a training course on the quality of malaria diagnosis by microscopy in Angola

Background: In Angola, malaria is an endemic disease having a major impact on the economy. The WHO recommends testing for all suspected malaria cases, to avoid the presumptive treatment of this disease. In malaria endemic regions laboratory technicians must be very comfortable with microscopy, the golden standard for malaria diagnosis, to avoid the incorrect diagnosis. The improper use of medication promotes drug resistance and undesirable side effects. The present study aims to assess the impact of a three-day refresher course on the knowledge of technicians, quality of blood smears preparation and accuracy of microscopy malaria diagnosis, using qPCR as reference method. Methods: This study was implemented in laboratories from three hospitals in different provinces of Angola: Bengo, Benguela and Luanda. In each laboratory samples were collected before and after the training course (slide with thin and thick blood smears, a dried blood spot and a form). The impact of the intervention was evaluated through a written test, the quality of slide preparation and the performance of microscopy. Results: It was found a significant increase on the written test median score, from 52.5% to 65.0%. A total of 973 slides were analysed to evaluate the quality of thick and thin blood smears. Considering all laboratories there was a significant increase in quality of thick and thin blood smears. To determine the performance of microscopy using qPCR as the reference method we used 1,028 samples. Benguela presented the highest values for specificity, 92.9% and 98.8% pre and post-course, respectively and for sensitivity the best pre-course was Benguela (75.9%) and post-course Luanda (75.0%). However, no significant increase in sensitivity and specificity after the training course was registered in any laboratory analysed. Discussion: The findings of this study support the need of continuous refresher training for microscopists and other laboratory staff. The laboratories should have a quality control programme to supervise the diagnosis and also to assess the periodicity of new training. However, other variables needed to be considered to have a correct malaria diagnosis, such as adequate equipment and reagents for staining and visualization, good working conditions, motivated and qualified personnel.

Ill-defined causes of death in Brazil: a redistribution method based on the investigation of such causes

OBJECTIVE To propose a method of redistributing ill-defined causes of death (IDCD) based on the investigation of such causes.METHODS In 2010, an evaluation of the results of investigating the causes of death classified as IDCD in accordance with chapter 18 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) by the Mortality Information System was performed. The redistribution coefficients were calculated according to the proportional distribution of ill-defined causes reclassified after investigation in any chapter of the ICD-10, except for chapter 18, and used to redistribute the ill-defined causes not investigated and remaining by sex and age. The IDCD redistribution coefficient was compared with two usual methods of redistribution: a) Total redistribution coefficient, based on the proportional distribution of all the defined causes originally notified and b) Non-external redistribution coefficient, similar to the previous, but excluding external causes.RESULTS Of the 97,314 deaths by ill-defined causes reported in 2010, 30.3% were investigated, and 65.5% of those were reclassified as defined causes after the investigation. Endocrine diseases, mental disorders, and maternal causes had a higher representation among the reclassified ill-defined causes, contrary to infectious diseases, neoplasms, and genitourinary diseases, with higher proportions among the defined causes reported. External causes represented 9.3% of the ill-defined causes reclassified. The correction of mortality rates by the total redistribution coefficient and non-external redistribution coefficient increased the magnitude of the rates by a relatively similar factor for most causes, contrary to the IDCD redistribution coefficient that corrected the different causes of death with differentiated weights.CONCLUSIONS The proportional distribution of causes among the ill-defined causes reclassified after investigation was not similar to the original distribution of defined causes. Therefore, the redistribution of the remaining ill-defined causes based on the investigation allows for more appropriate estimates of the mortality risk due to specific causes.

A straightforward method to obtain the cohesive laws of bonded joints under mode I loading

A simple procedure to measure the cohesive laws of bonded joints under mode I loading using the double cantilever beam test is proposed. The method only requires recording the applied load–displacement data and measuring the crack opening displacement at its tip in the course of the experimental test. The strain energy release rate is obtained by a procedure involving the Timoshenko beam theory, the specimen’s compliance and the crack equivalent concept. Following the proposed approach the influence of the fracture process zone is taken into account which is fundamental for an accurate estimation of the failure process details. The cohesive law is obtained by differentiation of the strain energy release rate as a function of the crack opening displacement. The model was validated numerically considering three representative cohesive laws. Numerical simulations using finite element analysis including cohesive zone modeling were performed. The good agreement between the inputted and resulting laws for all the cases considered validates the model. An experimental confirmation was also performed by comparing the numerical and experimental load–displacement curves. The numerical load–displacement curves were obtained by adjusting typical cohesive laws to the ones measured experimentally following the proposed approach and using finite element analysis including cohesive zone modeling. Once again, good agreement was obtained in the comparisons thus demonstrating the good performance of the proposed methodology.

Improvement of a filters method in a derivative free optimization

Constraints nonlinear optimization problems can be solved using penalty or barrier functions. This strategy, based on solving the problems without constraints obtained from the original problem, have shown to be e ective, particularly when used with direct search methods. An alternative to solve the previous problems is the lters method. The lters method introduced by Fletcher and Ley er in 2002, , has been widely used to solve problems of the type mentioned above. These methods use a strategy di erent from the barrier or penalty functions. The previous functions de ne a new one that combine the objective function and the constraints, while the lters method treat optimization problems as a bi-objective problems that minimize the objective function and a function that aggregates the constraints. Motivated by the work of Audet and Dennis in 2004, using lters method with derivative-free algorithms, the authors developed works where other direct search meth- ods were used, combining their potential with the lters method. More recently. In a new variant of these methods was presented, where it some alternative aggregation restrictions for the construction of lters were proposed. This paper presents a variant of the lters method, more robust than the previous ones, that has been implemented with a safeguard procedure where values of the function and constraints are interlinked and not treated completely independently.

Filters method in direct search optimization, new measures to admissibility

Constrained nonlinear optimization problems are usually solved using penalty or barrier methods combined with unconstrained optimization methods. Another alternative used to solve constrained nonlinear optimization problems is the lters method. Filters method, introduced by Fletcher and Ley er in 2002, have been widely used in several areas of constrained nonlinear optimization. These methods treat optimization problem as bi-objective attempts to minimize the objective function and a continuous function that aggregates the constraint violation functions. Audet and Dennis have presented the rst lters method for derivative-free nonlinear programming, based on pattern search methods. Motivated by this work we have de- veloped a new direct search method, based on simplex methods, for general constrained optimization, that combines the features of the simplex method and lters method. This work presents a new variant of these methods which combines the lters method with other direct search methods and are proposed some alternatives to aggregate the constraint violation functions.

Feasibility of the extended finite element method for the simulation of composite bonded joints

Adhesive-bonding for the unions in multi-component structures is gaining momentum over welding, riveting and fastening. It is vital for the design of bonded structures the availability of accurate damage models, to minimize design costs and time to market. Cohesive Zone Models (CZM’s) have been used for fracture prediction in structures. The eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM) is a recent improvement of the Finite Element Method (FEM) that relies on traction-separation laws similar to those of CZM’s but it allows the growth of discontinuities within bulk solids along an arbitrary path, by enriching degrees of freedom. This work proposes and validates a damage law to model crack propagation in a thin layer of a structural epoxy adhesive using the XFEM. The fracture toughness in pure mode I (GIc) and tensile cohesive strength (sn0) were defined by Double-Cantilever Beam (DCB) and bulk tensile tests, respectively, which permitted to build the damage law. The XFEM simulations of the DCB tests accurately matched the experimental load-displacement (P-d) curves, which validated the analysis procedure.

Analysis of the nano-surface of a modified glassy carbon electrode by pseudo phase plane method

This paper presents the Pseudo phase plane (PPP) method for detecting the existence of a nanofilm on the nitroazobenzene-modified glassy carbon electrode (NAB-GC) system. This modified electrode systems and nitroazobenze-nanofilm were prepared by the electrochemical reduction of diazonium salt of NAB at the glassy carbon electrodes (GCE) in nonaqueous media. The IR spectra of the bare glassy carbon electrodes (GCE), the NAB-GC electrode system and the organic NAB film were recorded. The IR data of the bare GC, NAB-GC and NAB film were categorized into five series consisting of FILM1, GC-NAB1, GC1; FILM2, GC-NAB2, GC2; FILM3, GC-NAB3, GC3 and FILM4, GC-NAB4, GC4 respectively. The PPP approach was applied to each group of the data of unmodified and modified electrode systems with nanofilm. The results provided by PPP method show the existence of the NAB film on the modified GC electrode.

Shear modulus and strength of an acrylic adhesive by the notched plate shear method (Arcan) and the thick adherend shear test (TAST)

In this work, the shear modulus and strength of the acrylic adhesive 3M® DP 8005 was evaluated by two different methods: the Thick Adherend Shear Test (TAST) and the Notched Plate Shear Method (Arcan). However, TAST standards advise the use of a special extensometer attached to the specimen, which requires a very experienced technician. In the present study, the adhesive shear displacement for the TAST was measured using an optical technique, and also with a conventional inductive extensometer of 25 mm used for tensile tests. This allowed for an assessment of suitability of using a conventional extensometer to measure this parameter. Since the results obtained by the two techniques are identical, it can be concluded that using a conventional extensometer is a valid option to obtain the shear modulus for the particular adhesive used. In the Arcan tests, the adhesive shear displacement was only measured using the optical technique. This work also aimed the comparison of shear modulus and strength obtained by the TAST and Arcan test methods.

Development of biocompatible and “smart” porous structures using CO2-assisted processes

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do grau de Doutor em Engenharia Química, especialidade Engenharia da Reacção Química, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

The daily and hourly energy consumption and load forecasting using artifitial neural network method: a case study using a set of 93 households in Portugal

It is important to understand and forecast a typical or a particularly household daily consumption in order to design and size suitable renewable energy systems and energy storage. In this research for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) it has been used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and, despite the consumption unpredictability, it has been shown the possibility to forecast the electricity consumption of a household with certainty. The ANNs are recognized to be a potential methodology for modeling hourly and daily energy consumption and load forecasting. Input variables such as apartment area, numbers of occupants, electrical appliance consumption and Boolean inputs as hourly meter system were considered. Furthermore, the investigation carried out aims to define an ANN architecture and a training algorithm in order to achieve a robust model to be used in forecasting energy consumption in a typical household. It was observed that a feed-forward ANN and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided a good performance. For this research it was used a database with consumption records, logged in 93 real households, in Lisbon, Portugal, between February 2000 and July 2001, including both weekdays and weekend. The results show that the ANN approach provides a reliable model for forecasting household electric energy consumption and load profile. © 2014 The Author.

Preparação de adsorventes mesoporosos para a adsorção de poluentes em águas

Mestrado Engenharia Química. Ramo Tecnologias de Protecção Ambiental

A genetic algorithm for the job shop scheduling with a new local search using Monte Carlo method

This paper presents a methodology for applying scheduling algorithms using Monte Carlo simulation. The methodology is based on a decision support system (DSS). The proposed methodology combines a genetic algorithm with a new local search using Monte Carlo Method. The methodology is applied to the job shop scheduling problem (JSSP). The JSSP is a difficult problem in combinatorial optimization for which extensive investigation has been devoted to the development of efficient algorithms. The methodology is tested on a set of standard instances taken from the literature and compared with others. The computation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The DSS developed can be utilized in a common industrial or construction environment.

ERICA: prevalence of asthma in Brazilian adolescents

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the prevalence of asthma and physician-diagnosed asthma in Brazilian adolescents. METHODS Cross-sectional, national, school-based study with adolescents from 12 to 17 years old, participants in the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA). The study stratified the sample by region and grouped according to schools and classes with representativeness to the set of cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants of the Country, macro-regions, capitals, and Federal District. A questionnaire collected data through a self-filled in method. We calculated the prevalences and their confidence intervals of 95% (95%CI) according to sex, age group, type of school and skin color. RESULTS Between 2013 and 2014, 74,589 adolescents were evaluated, 55.3% of the female sex. The total prevalence of active asthma was of 13.1% (95%CI 12.1-13.9), being higher in girls (14.8%; 95%CI 13.7-16.0) when compared to boys (11.2%; 95%CI 10.3-12.2) in all geographical strata examined. It was also higher between students of private schools (15.9%; 95%CI 14.2-17.7) when compared to public ones (12.4%; 95%CI 11.4-13.4). It was higher in the Southeast region (14.5%; 95%CI 12.9-16.1), and in the city of Sao Paulo (16.7%; 95%CI 14.7-18.7). The lowest prevalence was observed in North region (9.7%; 95%CI 9.7-10.5), and in Teresina (6.3%; 95%CI 4.9-7.7). The prevalence of physician-diagnosed asthma was of 8.7% (95%CI 8.2-9.1); higher in the North region (13.5%; 95%CI 12.7-14.2), and in Porto Alegre (19.8%; 95%CI 17.5-22.3). It was lower in the Midwest (6.9%; 95%CI 6.0-7.8), and in Cuiaba (4.8%; 95%CI 3.8-5.9). We found no significant difference in the expression of this rate between the sexes, as well as in other variables evaluated by the study. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of asthma in Brazilian adolescents is high. Rates of active asthma and physician-diagnosed asthma vary widely in different regions and capitals evaluated by the ERICA. These results may assist in the preparation of preventive programs and policies on health and a better understanding of the factors associated with asthma in this age group.