866 resultados para predictors
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Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, but the precise effect of childhood adversities as risk factors for the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour (suicide ideation, plans and attempts) are not well understood. Aims To examine the associations between childhood adversities as risk factors for the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour across 21 countries worldwide. Method Respondents from nationally representative samples (n = 55 299) were interviewed regarding childhood adversities that occurred before the age of 18 years and lifetime suicidal behaviour. Results Childhood adversities were associated with an increased risk of suicide attempt and ideation in both bivariate and multivariate models (odds ratio range 1.2-5.7). The risk increased with the number of adversities experienced, but at a decreasing rate. Sexual and physical abuse were consistently the strongest risk factors for both the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour, especially during adolescence. Associations remained similar after additional adjustment for respondents` lifetime mental disorder status. Conclusions Childhood adversities (especially intrusive or aggressive adversities) are powerful predictors of the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviours.
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Objectives We studied the relationship between changes in body composition and changes in blood pressure levels. Background The mechanisms underlying the frequently observed progression from pre-hypertension to hypertension are poorly understood. Methods We examined 1,145 subjects from a population-based survey at baseline in 1994/1995 and at follow-up in 2004/2005. First, we studied individuals pre-hypertensive at baseline who, during 10 years of follow-up, either had normalized blood pressure (PreNorm, n = 48), persistently had pre-hypertension (PrePre, n = 134), or showed progression to hypertension (PreHyp, n = 183). In parallel, we studied predictors for changes in blood pressure category in individuals hypertensive at baseline (n = 429). Results After 10 years, the PreHyp group was characterized by a marked increase in body weight (+5.71% [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.60% to 6.83%]) that was largely the result of an increase in fat mass (+17.8% [95% CI: 14.5% to 21.0%]). In the PrePre group, both the increases in body weight (+1.95% [95% CI: 0.68% to 3.22%]) and fat mass (+8.09% [95% CI: 4.42% to 11.7%]) were significantly less pronounced than in the PreHyp group (p < 0.001 for both). The PreNorm group showed no significant change in body weight (-1.55% [95% CI: -3.70% to 0.61%]) and fat mass (+0.20% [95% CI: -6.13% to 6.52%], p < 0.05 for both, vs. the PrePre group). Conclusions After 10 years of follow-up, hypertension developed in 50.1% of individuals with pre-hypertension and only 6.76% went from hypertensive to pre-hypertensive blood pressure levels. An increase in body weight and fat mass was a risk factor for the development of sustained hypertension, whereas a decrease was predictive of a decrease in blood pressure. (J Am Coll Cardiol 2010; 56: 65-76) (C) 2010 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation
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Objective. To analyze the longterm followup of a series of Brazilian patients with undifferentiated spondyloarthritis (uSpA). Methods. Prospective study analyzing a group of 111 patients with the diagnosis of uSpA, fulfilling the European Spondylarthropathy Study Group and the Amor criteria, who were followed for 5 to 10 years in a single university referral center. Patients had their outcome analyzed at 5, 7, and 10 years. Results. There was a predominance of men (81.1%), white ethnicity (78.4%), and positive HLA-B27 (61.3%), with a mean age at onset of 27.2 years. Twenty-seven patients presented development to ankylosing spondylitis (AS; 24.3%) and 3 to psoriatic arthritis (PsA; 2.7%), while 25 patients (22.5%) went into remission during the followup. Univariate logistic regression analysis revealed that ethnicity, HLA-B27, buttock pain, inflammatory low back pain, ankle involvement, grade I sacroiliitis at the beginning of the study, and the use of sulfasalazine were statistically associated with progression to AS. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that HLA-B27 (p = 0.035, OR 6.720.95% CI 11.45-39.43) and buttock pain (p = 0.009, OR 6.211, 95% CI 1.591-24.25) were statistically associated with progression to AS. Conclusion. In a longterm followup of 111 Brazilian patients with uSpA, HLA-B27 and buttock pain were significant predictors of progression to a definite disease. (First Release May 1 2010; J Rheumatol 2010;37:1195-9; doi:10.3899/jrheum.090625)
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Background Intestinal and pancreaticobiliary types of Vater`s ampulla adenocarcinoma have been considered as having different biologic behavior and prognosis. The aim of the present study was to determine the best immunohistochemical panel for tumor classification and to analyze the survival of patients having these histological types of adenocarcinoma. Method Ninety-seven resected ampullary adenocarcinomas were histologically classified, and the prognosis factors were analyzed. The expression of MUC1, MUC2, MUC5AC, MUC6, CK7, CK17, CK20, CD10, and CDX2 was evaluated by using immunohistochemistry. Results Forty-three Vater`s ampulla carcinomas were histologically classified as intestinal type, 47 as pancreaticobiliary, and seven as other types. The intestinal type had a significantly higher expression of MUC2 (74.4% vs. 23.4%), CK20 (76.7% vs. 29.8%), CDX2 (86% vs. 21.3%), and CD10 (81.4% vs. 51.1%), while MUC1 (53.5% vs. 82.9%) and CK7 (79.1% vs. 95.7%) were higher in pancreatobiliary adenocarcinomas. The most accurate markers for immunohistochemical classification were CDX2, MUC1, and MUC2. Survival was significantly affected by pancreaticobiliary type (p=0.021), but only lymph node metastasis, lymphatic invasion, and stage were independent risk factors for survival in a multivariate analysis. Conclusion The immunohistochemical expression of CDX2, MUC1, and MUC2 allows a reproducible classification of ampullary carcinomas. Although carcinomas of the intestinal type showed better survival in the univariate analysis, neither histological classification nor immunohistochemistry were independent predictors of poor prognosis.
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Background: Oncologic outcomes in men with radiation-recurrent prostate cancer (PCa) treated with salvage radical prostatectomy (SRP) are poorly defined. Objective: To identify predictors of biochemical recurrence (BCR), metastasis, and death following SRP to help select patients who may benefit from SRP. Design, setting, and participants: This is a retrospective, international, multi-institutional cohort analysis. There was amedian follow-up of 4.4 yr following SRP performed on 404 men with radiation-recurrent PCa from 1985 to 2009 in tertiary centers. Intervention: Open SRP. Measurements: BCR after SRP was defined as a serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) >= 0.1 or >= 0.2 ng/ml (depending on the institution). Secondary end points included progression to metastasis and cancerspecific death. Results and limitations: Median age at SRP was 65 yr of age, and median pre-SRP PSA was 4.5 ng/ml. Following SRP, 195 patients experienced BCR, 64 developed metastases, and 40 died from PCa. At 10 yr after SRP, BCR-free survival, metastasis-free survival, and cancer-specific survival (CSS) probabilities were 37% (95% confidence interval [CI], 31-43), 77% (95% CI, 71-82), and 83% (95% CI, 76-88), respectively. On preoperative multivariable analysis, pre-SRP PSA and Gleason score at postradiation prostate biopsy predicted BCR (p = 0.022; global p < 0.001) and metastasis (p = 0.022; global p < 0.001). On postoperative multivariable analysis, pre-SRP PSA and pathologic Gleason score at SRP predicted BCR (p = 0.014; global p < 0.001) and metastasis (p < 0.001; global p < 0.001). Lymph node involvement (LNI) also predicted metastasis (p = 0.017). The main limitations of this study are its retrospective design and the follow-up period. Conclusions: In a select group of patients who underwent SRP for radiation-recurrent PCa, freedom from clinical metastasis was observed in > 75% of patients 10 yr after surgery. Patients with lower pre-SRP PSA levels and lower postradiation prostate biopsy Gleason score have the highest probability of cure from SRP. (C) 2011 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.
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Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a morbid condition highly related to obesity. It is unclear if the macroscopic liver appearance correlates with the histopathologic findings. The goal of this prospective study was to determine the relationship between the intraoperative liver appearance and the histopathologic diagnosis of NASH in morbidly obese subjects undergoing bariatric surgery. We also aimed to determine variables that could predict NASH preoperatively. Consecutive 51 subjects undergoing bariatric surgery without evidence of other liver disease underwent intraoperative liver biopsy. An intraoperative liver visual (macroscopic and tactile examination) was recorded. The liver aspect was compared with the liver histologic findings. Histological assessment was categorized into two groups: NASH and non-NASH (including normal histology and simple steatosis). Clinical and biochemical parameters were obtained from the patient databases and were compared between groups to identify preoperatively predictive factors of NASH. From 51 patients, only one presented totally normal histology. Forty-three (86.2%) presented simple steatosis, and seven (13.7%) were classified as NASH. Clinical parameters were not different between groups. At biochemical analysis, only VLDL cholesterol level was significantly higher in the NASH group (p = 0.037) but yet within the normal range. Association between macroscopic liver appearance and the presence of histological NASH is poor (sensitivity of 14%, specificity of 56%, positive predictive value of 5%, and negative predictive value of 80%). No predictor of NASH was found. Surgeons` evaluation could not identify NASH individuals. Routine liver biopsy during bariatric operations is mandatory to differentiate NASH and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.
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Objectives This prospective study evaluated the association of obesity and hypertension with left atrial (LA) volume over 10 years. Background Although left atrial enlargement (LAE) is an independent risk factor for atrial fibrillation, stroke, and death, little information is available about determinants of LA size in the general population. Methods Participants (1,212 men and women, age 25 to 74 years) originated from a sex-and age-stratified random sample of German residents of the Augsburg area (MONICA S3). Left atrial volume was determined by standardized echocardiography at baseline and again after 10 years. Left atrial volume was indexed to body height (iLA). Left atrial enlargement was defined as iLA >= 35.7 and >= 33.7 ml/m in men and women, respectively. Results At baseline, the prevalence of LAE was 9.8%. Both obesity and hypertension were independent predictors of LAE, obesity (odds ratio [OR]: 2.4; p < 0.001) being numerically stronger than hypertension (OR: 2.2; p < 0.001). Adjusted mean values for iLA were significantly lower in normal-weight hypertensive patients (25.4 ml/m) than in obese normotensive individuals (27.3 ml/m; p = 0.016). The highest iLA was found in the obese hypertensive subgroup (30.0 ml/m; p < 0.001 vs. all other groups). This group also presented with the highest increase in iLA (+6.0 ml/m) and the highest incidence (31.6%) of LAE upon follow-up. Conclusions In the general population, obesity appears to be the most important risk factor for LAE. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, early interventions, especially in young obese individuals, are essential to prevent premature onset of cardiac remodeling at the atrial level. (J Am Coll Cardiol 2009; 54: 1982-9) (C) 2009 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation
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Background and Purpose-Diagnostic delay of cerebral vein and dural sinus thrombosis may have an impact on outcome. Methods-In the International Study on Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis (ISCVT) cohort (624 patients with cerebral vein and dural sinus thrombosis), we analyzed the predictors and the impact on outcome of diagnostic delay. Primary outcome was a modified Rankin Scale score > 2 at the end of follow-up. Secondary outcomes were modified Rankin Scale score 0 to 1 at the end of follow-up, death, and visual deficits (visual acuity or visual field). Results-Median delay was 7 days (interquartile range, 3 to 16). Patients with disturbance of consciousness (P < 0.001) and of mental status (P = 0.042), seizure (< 0.001), and with parenchymal lesions on admission CT/MR (P < 0.001) were diagnosed earlier, whereas men (P = 0.01) and those with isolated intracranial hypertension syndrome (P = 0.04) were diagnosed later. Between patients diagnosed earlier and later than the median delay, no statistically significant differences were found in the primary (P = 0.33) and in secondary outcomes: modified Rankin Scale score 0 to 1 (P = 0.86) or deaths (P = 0.53). Persistent visual deficits were more frequent in patients diagnosed later (P = 0.05). In patients with isolated intracranial hypertension syndrome, modified Rankin Scale score > 2 at the end of follow-up was more frequent in patients diagnosed later (P = 0.02). Conclusions-Diagnostic delay was considerable in this cohort and was associated with an increased risk of visual deficit. In patients with isolated intracranial hypertension syndrome, diagnostic delay was also associated with death or dependency. (Stroke. 2009; 40: 3133-3138.)
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Degenerative aortic valve disease (DAVD), a common finding in the elderly, is associated with an increased risk of death due to cardiovascular causes. Taking advantage of its longitudinal design, this study evaluates the prevalence of DAVD and its temporal associations with long-term exposure to cardiovascular risk factors in the general population. We studied 953 subjects (aged 25-74 years) from a random sample of German residents. Risk factors had been determined at a baseline investigation in 1994/95. At a follow-up investigation, 10 years later, standardized echocardiography determined aortic valve morphology and aortic valve area (AVA) as well as left ventricular geometry and function. At the follow-up study, the overall prevalence of DAVD was 28%. In logistic regression models adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors at baseline age (OR 2.0 [1.7-2.3] per 10 years, P < 0.001), active smoking (OR 1.7 [1.1-2.4], P = 0.009) and elevated total cholesterol levels (OR 1.2 [1.1-1.3] per increase of 20 mg/dL, P < 0.001) were significantly related to DAVD at follow-up. Furthermore, age, baseline status of smoking, and total cholesterol level were significant predictors of a smaller AVA at follow-up study. In contrast, hypertension and obesity had no detectable relationship with long-term changes of aortic valve structure. In the general population we observed a high prevalence of DAVD that is associated with long-term exposure to elevated cholesterol levels and active smoking. These findings strengthen the notion that smoking cessation and cholesterol lowering are promising treatment targets for prevention of DAVD.
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Aims: To evaluate the risk and predictors of death in a large population of patients with stable coronary disease treated with percutaneous intervention. Methods and results: The study population comprised 1,276 patients with chronic angina or silent ischaemia who underwent elective coronary angioplasty. Baseline and in-hospital mortality data were prospectively collected for all patients during the index hospitalisation. Post-discharge outcome was assessed at out-patient clinic, by review of the patients` records, or direct phone contact. Deaths were classified as cardiac and non-cardiac. Age, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure with NYHA class Ill, triple-vessel disease, and procedural success (i.e. angiographic success for all lesions in the absence of pen-procedural infarction) remained as multivariate independent predictors of death. For the entire population 4-year cumulative all-cause and cardiac mortality were respectively 5.4% and 4.1%. Four-year mortality for patients without any multivariate predictor was 2.4%, while for patients with two or more predictors the death rate was 16.3% after four years. Conclusions: Patients with stable coronary disease undergoing percutaneous treatment have an overall low mortality rate after four years. Nevertheless, stable patients comprise a heterogeneous population in terms of risk profile, ranging from patients at very low risk of late death to individuals with a poor long-term prognosis.
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Objectives We evaluated demographic, clinical, and angiographic factors influencing the selection of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery versus percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in diabetic patients with multivessel coronary artery disease (CAD) in the BARI 2D (Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation in Type 2 Diabetes) trial. Background Factors guiding selection of mode of revascularization for patients with diabetes mellitus and multivessel CAD are not clearly defined. Methods In the BARI 2D trial, the selected revascularization strategy, CABG or PCI, was based on physician discretion, declared independent of randomization to either immediate or deferred revascularization if clinically warranted. We analyzed factors favoring selection of CABG versus PCI in 1,593 diabetic patients with multivessel CAD enrolled between 2001 and 2005. Results Selection of CABG over PCI was declared in 44% of patients and was driven by angiographic factors including triple vessel disease (odds ratio [OR]: 4.43), left anterior descending stenosis >= 70% (OR: 2.86), proximal left anterior descending stenosis >= 50% (OR: 1.78), total occlusion (OR: 2.35), and multiple class C lesions (OR: 2.06) (all p < 0.005). Nonangiographic predictors of CABG included age >= 65 years (OR: 1.43, p = 0.011) and non-U.S. region (OR: 2.89, p = 0.017). Absence of prior PCI (OR: 0.45, p < 0.001) and the availability of drug-eluting stents conferred a lower probability of choosing CABG (OR: 0.60, p = 0.003). Conclusions The majority of diabetic patients with multivessel disease were selected for PCI rather than CABG. Preference for CABG over PCI was largely based on angiographic features related to the extent, location, and nature of CAD, as well as geographic, demographic, and clinical factors. (Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation in Type 2 Diabetes [BARI 2D]; NCT00006305) (J Am Coll Cardiol Intv 2009;2:384-92) (C) 2009 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation
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Purpose: The purpose of this study was to assess risk factors associated with the development of acute respiratory failure (ARF) and death in a general intensive care unit (ICU). Materials and Methods: Adults who were hospitalized at 12 surgical and nonsurgical ICUs were prospectively followed up. Multivariable analyses were realized to determine the risk factors for ARF and point out the prognostic factors for mortality in these patients. Results: A total of 1732 patients were evaluated, with an ARF prevalence of 57%. Of the 889 patients who were admitted without ARF, 141 (16%) developed this syndrome in the ICU. The independent risk factors for developing ARF were 64 years of age or older, longer time between hospital and ICU admission, unscheduled surgical or clinical reason for ICU admission, and severity of illness. Of the 984 patients with ARF, 475 (48%) died during the ICU stay. Independent prognostic factors for death were age older than 64 years, time between hospital and ICU admission of more than 4 days, history of hematologic malignancy or AIDS, the development of ARF in ICU, acute lung injury, and severity of illness. Conclusions: Acute respiratory failure represents a large percentage of all ICU patients, and the high mortality is related to some preventable factors such as the time to ICU admission. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Background: Patients with diabetes mellitus who undergo coronary stenting are at increased risk of restenosis. It is known that inflammation plays a crucial role in restenosis. Objective: We assessed the inflammatory response to elective coronary stent implantation (CSI) in stable diabetic and nondiabetic patients. Methods: C-reactive protein (CRP), soluble (s) P-selectin, and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule (sICAM)-1 plasma levels were determined in diabetic (n = 51) and nondiabetic (n = 56) patients before and 48 hours and 4 weeks after bare metal stenting (BMS). Results: Diabetic patients presented significantly higher inflammatory marker levels before and after CSI. Nonetheless, diabetic and nondiabetic patients had postintervention peak of markers attained within 48 hours. At baseline, diabetic and nondiabetic patients presented CRP levels of 5.0 +/- 20.1 (P <= 0.04) and 3.8 +/- 9.4 mu g/ml and, at 48 hours postintervention, 22.0 +/- 20.2 (P = 0.001; P = 0.002) and 12.6 +/- 11.3 (P <= 0.0001) mu g/ml. Regarding sP-selectin, diabetic and nondiabetic patients obtained levels of, at baseline, 182 +/- 118 (P <= 0.04) and 105 +/- 48 ng/ml and, at 48 hours, 455 +/- 290 (P = 0.001; P <= 0.01) and 215 +/- 120 (P <= 0.04) ng/ml. For diabetic and nondiabetic patients, sICAM-1 levels were, at baseline, 248 +/- 98 (P <= 0.04) and 199 +/- 94 ng/ml and, at 48 hours, 601 +/- 201 (P = 0.001; P <= 0.01) and 283 +/- 220 (P = 0.001) ng/ml. At 4 weeks, for all patients, markers returned to preprocedural levels: versus before PCI: *P = 0.001, P <= 0.0001; versus nondiabetic patients: #P <= 0.04, P = 0.002, UpsilonP <= 0.01. Conclusions: Diabetic and nondiabetic patients exhibited a temporal inflammatory response after an elective BMS. However, diabetic patients present higher preprocedural levels of CRP, sP-selectin, and sICAM-1 and reveal a further exacerbated inflammatory response after intervention. The differences in inflammatory response may have implications in restenosis within these two sets of patients.
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Objective: The aim was to compare there ulcer classification systems as predictors of the outcome of diabetic foot ulcers; the Wagner, the University of Texas (UT) and the size (area, depth), sepsis, arteriopathy, denervation system (S(AD)SAD) systems in specialist clinic in Brazil. Methods: Ulcer area, depth, appearance, infection and associated ischaemia and neuropathy were recorded in a consecutive series of 94 subjects. A novel score, the S(AD)SAD score, was derived from the sum of individual items of the S(AD)SAD system, and was evaluated. Follow-up was for at least 6 months. The primary outcome measure was the incidence of healing. Results: Mean age was 57.6 years; 57 (60.6%) were made. Forty-eight ulcers (51.1%) healed without surgery; 11 (12.2%) subjects underwent minor amputation. Significant differences in terms of healing were observed for depth (P = 0.002), infection (P = 0.006) and denervation (P = 0.002) using the S(AD)SAD system, for UT grade (P = 0.002) and stage (P = 0.032) and for Wagner grades (P = 0.002). Ulcers with an S(AD)SAD score of <= 9 (total possible 15) were 7.6 times more likely to heal than scores >= 10 (P < 0.001). Conclusions: All three systems predicted ulcer outcome. The S(AD)SAD score of ulcer severity could represent a useful addition to routine clinical practice. The association between outcome and ulcer depth confirms earlier reports. The association with infection was stronger than that reported from the centres in Europe or North America. The very strong association with neuropathy has only previously been observed in Tanzania. Studies designed to compare the outcome in different countries should adopt systems of classification, which are valid for the populations studied.
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Personality disorders are associated with criminality and antisocial and borderline personalities as strong predictors of violence. Nevertheless antisocial patients show more instrumental violence, while borderline patients more emotional violence. We surveilled medical records of a personality disorder facility, searching data of aggression and crimes against property among 11 patients with antisocial personality disorder and 19 borderline personality disorder. We found that there are differences regarding engagement in violence and lawbreaking according to the personality disorder: antisocial patients statistically engage more in crimes against property than the borderline patients, and more in this kind of crime than in aggression, whilst borderline patients show a tendency to engage more in episodes of aggression and physical violence than antisocial patients, and less in crimes against property. We conclude that the distinct personality leads to a distinct pattern of crimes and violence: antisocial patients are c old and get more involved in crimes requiring more detailed planning, whilst borderline patients are impulsive and engage in explosive episodes of physical violence. Further studies on the association among personality disorder, behavior pattern and violence type may be useful for both treatment and criminal profiling. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.