Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: a PDRMIP multi-model study

Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.

The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies (e.g. Joos et al., 2004; Kaplan et al., 2011; Mitchell et al., 2013) have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) one in which potential natural vegetation was simulated by Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (TRIFFID) but without land use changes and (ii) one where the anthropogenic land use model Kaplan and Krumhardt 2010 (KK10; Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) was used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations were run at 1000-year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results from our model simulations indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and south-east Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June–July–August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. The global annual mean temperature anomalies found in our single model simulations were −0.22 at 1850 CE, −0.11 at 2 ka BP, and −0.03 °C at 7 ka BP. Regionally, the largest temperature changes were in Europe with anomalies of −0.83 at 1850 CE, −0.58 at 2 ka BP, and −0.24 °C at 7 ka BP. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies, and tropospheric stationary wave train disturbances in the mid- to high latitudes led to remote teleconnections.

Triple isotope (δD, δ17O, δ18O) study on precipitation, drip water and speleothem fluid inclusions for a central European cave (NW Switzerland)

Deuterium (dD) and oxygen (d18O) isotopes are powerful tracers of the hydrological cycle and have been extensively used for paleoclimate reconstructions as they can provide information on past precipitation, temperature and atmospheric circulation. More recently, the use of 17Oexcess derived from precise measurement of d17O and d18O gives new and additional insights in tracing the hydrological cycle whereas uncertainties surround this proxy. However, 17Oexcess could provide additional information on the atmospheric conditions at the moisture source as well as about fractionations associated with transport and site processes. In this paper we trace water stable isotopes (dD, d17O and d18O) along their path from precipitation to cave drip water and finally to speleothem fluid inclusions for Milandre cave in northwestern Switzerland. A two year-long daily resolved precipitation isotope record close to the cave site is compared to collected cave drip water (3 months average resolution) and fluid inclusions of modern and Holocene stalagmites. Amount weighted mean dD, d18O and d17O are �71.0‰, �9.9‰, �5.2‰ for precipitation, �60.3‰, �8.7‰, �4.6‰ for cave drip water and �61.3‰, �8.3‰, �4.7‰ for recent fluid inclusions respectively. Second order parameters have also been derived in precipitation and drip water and present similar values with 18 per meg for 17Oexcess whereas d-excess is 1.5‰ more negative in drip water. Furthermore, the atmospheric signal is shifted towards enriched values in the drip water and fluid inclusions (D of ~ þ 10‰ for dD). The isotopic composition of cave drip water exhibits a weak seasonal signal which is shifted by around 8e10 months (groundwater residence time) when compared to the precipitation. Moreover, we carried out the first d17O measurement in speleothem fluid inclusions, as well as the first comparison of the d17O behaviour from the meteoric water to the fluid inclusions entrapment in speleothems. This study on precipitation, drip water and fluid inclusions will be used as a speleothem proxy calibration for Milandre cave in order to reconstruct paleotemperatures and moisture source variations for Western Central Europe.

Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation

Understanding how human influence on climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and expectations that significant changes in regional precipitation should have already occurred as a result of human influence on climate, compelling evidence of anthropogenic fingerprints on regional precipitation is obscured by observational and modelling uncertainties and is likely to remain so using current methods for years to come. This is in spite of substantial ongoing improvements in models, new reanalyses and a satellite record that spans over thirty years. If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle, we need to consider novel ways of identifying the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on precipitation that take full advantage of our physical expectations.

Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations

Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations of 17 summers (1988-2004) over part of South America south of 5 degrees S were evaluated to identify model systematic errors. Model results were compared to different rainfall data sets (Climate Research Unit (CRU), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis), including the five summers mean (1998-2002) precipitation diurnal cycle observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-Precipitation Radar (PR). In spite of regional differences, the RegCM3 simulates the main observed aspects of summer climatology associated with the precipitation (northwest-southeast band of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)) and air temperature (warmer air in the central part of the continent and colder in eastern Brazil and the Andes Mountains). At a regional scale, the main RegCM3 failures are the underestimation of the precipitation in the northern branch of the SACZ and some unrealistic intense precipitation around the Andes Mountains. However, the RegCM3 seasonal precipitation is closer to the fine-scale analyses (CPC, CRU, and TRMM-PR) than is the NCEP reanalysis, which presents an incorrect north-south orientation of SACZ and an overestimation of its intensity. The precipitation diurnal cycle observed by TRMM-PR shows pronounced contrasts between Tropics and Extratropics and land and ocean, where most of these features are simulated by RegCM3. The major similarities between the simulation and observation, especially the diurnal cycle phase, are found over the continental tropical and subtropical SACZ regions, which present afternoon maximum (1500-1800 UTC) and morning minimum (0900-1200 UTC). More specifically, over the core of SACZ, the phase and amplitude of the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle are very close to the TRMM-PR observations. Although there are amplitude differences, the RegCM3 simulates the observed nighttime rainfall in the eastern Andes Mountains, over the Atlantic Ocean, and also over northern Argentina. The main simulation deficiencies are found in the Atlantic Ocean and near the Andes Mountains. Over the Atlantic Ocean the convective scheme is not triggered; thus the rainfall arises from the grid-scale scheme and therefore differs from the TRMM-PR. Near the Andes, intense (nighttime and daytime) simulated precipitation could be a response of an incorrect circulation and topographic uplift. Finally, it is important to note that unlike most reported bias of global models, RegCM3 does not trigger the moist convection just after sunrise over the southern part of the Amazon.

Impact of biomass burning aerosols on precipitation in the Amazon: A modeling case study

A study of the potential role of aerosols in modifying clouds and precipitation is presented using a numerical atmospheric model. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud size distribution properties taken in the southwestern Amazon region during the transition from dry to wet seasons were used as guidelines to define the microphysical parameters for the simulations. Numerical simulations were carried out using the Brazilian Development on Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, and the results presented considerable sensitivity to changes in these parameters. High CCN concentrations, typical of polluted days, were found to result in increases or decreases in total precipitation, depending on the level of pollution used as a reference, showing a complexity that parallels the aerosol-precipitation interaction. Our results show that on the grids evaluated, higher CCN concentrations reduced low-to-moderate rainfall rates and increased high rainfall rates. The principal consequence of the increased pollution was a change from a warm to a cold rain process, which affected the maximum and overall mean accumulated precipitation. Under polluted conditions, cloud cover diminished, allowing greater amounts of solar radiation to reach the surface. Aerosol absorption of radiation in the lower layers of the atmosphere delayed convective evolution but produced higher maximum rainfall rates due to increased instability. In addition, the intensity of the surface sensible heat flux, as well as that of the latent heat flux, was reduced by the lower temperature difference between surface and air, producing greater energy stores at the surface.

Precipitation variability in Sao Paulo State, Brazil

The State of Sao Paulo is the richest in Brazil, responsible for over 30% of the Brazilian gross rate. It has a population of around 30 million and its economy is based on agriculture and industrial products. Any change in climate can have a profound influence on the socio-economics of the State. In order to determine changes in total and extreme rainfall over Sao Paulo State, climate change indices derived from daily precipitation data were calculated using specially designed software. Maps of trends for a subset of 59 rain gauge stations were analysed for the period 1950-1999 and also for a subset of this period, 1990-1999, representing more recent climate. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to the time series. Maps of trends for six annual precipitation indices (annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), very heavy precipitation days (R20mm), events greater than the 95th percentile (R95p), maximum five days precipitation total (RX5day), the length of the largest wet spell (CWD) and the length of the largest dry spell (CDD)) were analysed for the entire period. These exhibited statistically significant trends associated with a wetter climate. A significant increase in PRCPTOT, associated with very heavy precipitation days, were observed at more than 45% of the rain gauge stations. The Mann-Kendall test identified that the positive trend in PRCPTOT is possibly related to the increase in the R95p and R20mm indices. Therefore, the results suggest that there has been a change in precipitation intensity. In contrast, the indices for the more recent shorter time series are significantly different to the longer term indices. The results indicate that intense precipitation is becoming concentrated in a few days and spread over the period when the CDD and R20mm indices show positive trends, while negative ones are seen in the RX5day index. The trends found could be related to many anthropogenic aspects such as biomass burning aerosols and land use.

Decomposition in tropical forests: a pan-tropical study of the effects of litter type, litter placement and mesofaunal exclusion across a precipitation gradient

1. Litter decomposition recycles nutrients and causes large fluxes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. It is typically assumed that climate, litter quality and decomposer communities determine litter decay rates, yet few comparative studies have examined their relative contributions in tropical forests. 2. We used a short-term litterbag experiment to quantify the effects of litter quality, placement and mesofaunal exclusion on decomposition in 23 tropical forests in 14 countries. Annual precipitation varied among sites (760-5797 mm). At each site, two standard substrates (Raphia farinifera and Laurus nobilis) were decomposed in fine- and coarse-mesh litterbags both above and below ground for approximately 1 year. 3. Decomposition was rapid, with >95% mass loss within a year at most sites. Litter quality, placement and mesofaunal exclusion all independently affected decomposition, but the magnitude depended upon site. Both the average decomposition rate at each site and the ratio of above- to below-ground decay increased linearly with annual precipitation, explaining 60-65% of among-site variation. Excluding mesofauna had the largest impact on decomposition, reducing decomposition rates by half on average, but the magnitude of decrease was largely independent of climate. This suggests that the decomposer community might play an important role in explaining patterns of decomposition among sites. Which litter type decomposed fastest varied by site, but was not related to climate. 4. Synthesis. A key goal of ecology is to identify general patterns across ecological communities, as well as relevant site-specific details to understand local dynamics. Our pan-tropical study shows that certain aspects of decomposition, including average decomposition rates and the ratio of above- to below-ground decomposition are highly correlated with a simple climatic index: mean annual precipitation. However, we found no relationship between precipitation and effects of mesofaunal exclusion or litter type, suggesting that site-specific details may also be required to understand how these factors affect decomposition at local scales.

Rainforest Aerosols as Biogenic Nuclei of Clouds and Precipitation in the Amazon

The Amazon is one of the few continental regions where atmospheric aerosol particles and their effects on climate are not dominated by anthropogenic sources. During the wet season, the ambient conditions approach those of the pristine pre-industrial era. We show that the fine submicrometer particles accounting for most cloud condensation nuclei are predominantly composed of secondary organic material formed by oxidation of gaseous biogenic precursors. Supermicrometer particles, which are relevant as ice nuclei, consist mostly of primary biological material directly released from rainforest biota. The Amazon Basin appears to be a biogeochemical reactor, in which the biosphere and atmospheric photochemistry produce nuclei for clouds and precipitation sustaining the hydrological cycle. The prevailing regime of aerosol-cloud interactions in this natural environment is distinctly different from polluted regions.

Results of Joint Experiments and other IAEA activities on research using small tokamaks

This paper presents an overview of the results obtained during the Joint Experiments organized in the framework of the IAEA Coordinated Research Project on `Joint Research Using Small Tokamaks` that have been carried out on the tokamaks CASTOR at IPP Prague, Czech Republic (2005), T-10 at RRC `Kurchatov Institute`, Moscow, Russia (2006), and the most recent one at ISTTOK at IST, Lisbon, Portugal, in 2007. Experimental programmes were aimed at diagnosing and characterizing the core and the edge plasma turbulence in a tokamak in order to investigate correlations between the occurrence of transport barriers, improved confinement, electric fields and electrostatic turbulence using advanced diagnostics with high spatial and temporal resolution. On CASTOR and ISTTOK, electric fields were generated by biasing an electrode inserted into the edge plasma and an improvement of the global particle confinement induced by the electrode positive biasing has been observed. Geodesic acoustic modes were studied using heavy ion beam diagnostics on T-10 and ISTTOK and correlation reflectometry on T-10. ISTTOK is equipped with a gallium jet injector and the technical feasibility of gallium jets interacting with plasmas has been investigated in pulsed and ac operation. The first Joint Experiments have clearly demonstrated that small tokamaks are suitable for broad international cooperation to conduct dedicated joint research programmes. Other activities within the IAEA Coordinated Research Project on Joint Research Using Small Tokamaks are also overviewed.

Orbitally driven east-west antiphasing of South American precipitation

The variations of tropical precipitation are antiphased between the hemispheres on orbital timescales. This antiphasing arises through the alternating strength of incoming solar radiation in the two hemispheres, which affects monsoon intensity and hence the position of the meridional atmospheric circulation of the Hadley cells(1-4). Here we compare an oxygen isotopic record recovered from a speleothem from northeast Brazil for the past 26,000 years with existing reconstructions of precipitation in tropical South America(5-8). During the Holocene, we identify a similar, but zonally oriented, antiphasing of precipitation within the same hemisphere: northeast Brazil experiences humid conditions during low summer insolation and aridity when summer insolation is high, whereas the rest of southern tropical South America shows opposite characteristics. Simulations with a general circulation model that incorporates isotopic variations support this pattern as well as the link to insolation-driven monsoon activity. Our results suggest that convective heating over tropical South America and associated adjustments in large-scale subsidence over northeast Brazil lead to a remote forcing of the South American monsoon, which determines most of the precipitation changes in the region on orbital timescales.

Computational aspects of harmonic wavelet Galerkin methods and an application to a precipitation front propagation model

This article is dedicated to harmonic wavelet Galerkin methods for the solution of partial differential equations. Several variants of the method are proposed and analyzed, using the Burgers equation as a test model. The computational complexity can be reduced when the localization properties of the wavelets and restricted interactions between different scales are exploited. The resulting variants of the method have computational complexities ranging from O(N(3)) to O(N) (N being the space dimension) per time step. A pseudo-spectral wavelet scheme is also described and compared to the methods based on connection coefficients. The harmonic wavelet Galerkin scheme is applied to a nonlinear model for the propagation of precipitation fronts, with the front locations being exposed in the sizes of the localized wavelet coefficients. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unraveling the Role of Sulfur Compounds in Acid Rain Formation: Experiments on a Wetted Glass pH Electrode

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A method for Ca, Fe, Ga, Na, Si and Zn determination in alumina by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry after aluminum precipitation

In this present work a method for the determination of Ca, Fe, Ga, Na, Si and Zn in alumina (Al(2)O(3)) by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP OES) with axial viewing is presented. Preliminary studies revealed intense aluminum spectral interference over the majority of elements and reaction between aluminum and quartz to form aluminosilicate, reducing drastically the lifetime of the torch. To overcome these problems alumina samples (250 mg) were dissolved with 5 mL HCl + 1.5 mLH(2)SO(4) + 1.5 mL H(2)O in a microwave oven. After complete dissolution the volume was completed to 20 mL and aluminum was precipitated as Al(OH)(3) with NH(3) (by bubbling NH(3) into the solution up to a pH similar to 8, for 10 min). The use of internal standards (Fe/Be, Ga/Dy, Zn/In and Na/Sc) was essential to obtain precise and accurate results. The reliability of the proposed method was checked by analysis of alumina certified reference material (Alumina Reduction Grade-699, NIST). The found concentrations (0.037%w(-1) CaO, 0.013% w w(-1) Fe(2)O(3), 0.012%w w(-1)Ga(2)O(3), 0.49% w w(-1) Na(2)O, 0.014% w w(-1) SiO(2) and 0.013% w w(-1) ZnO) presented no statistical differences compared to the certified values at a 95% confidence level. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.