Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

Development and characterization of a distributed measurement system for the evaluation of voltage quality in electric power networks

The research activity carried out during the PhD course in Electrical Engineering belongs to the branch of electric and electronic measurements. The main subject of the present thesis is a distributed measurement system to be installed in Medium Voltage power networks, as well as the method developed to analyze data acquired by the measurement system itself and to monitor power quality. In chapter 2 the increasing interest towards power quality in electrical systems is illustrated, by reporting the international research activity inherent to the problem and the relevant standards and guidelines emitted. The aspect of the quality of voltage provided by utilities and influenced by customers in the various points of a network came out only in recent years, in particular as a consequence of the energy market liberalization. Usually, the concept of quality of the delivered energy has been associated mostly to its continuity. Hence the reliability was the main characteristic to be ensured for power systems. Nowadays, the number and duration of interruptions are the “quality indicators” commonly perceived by most customers; for this reason, a short section is dedicated also to network reliability and its regulation. In this contest it should be noted that although the measurement system developed during the research activity belongs to the field of power quality evaluation systems, the information registered in real time by its remote stations can be used to improve the system reliability too. Given the vast scenario of power quality degrading phenomena that usually can occur in distribution networks, the study has been focused on electromagnetic transients affecting line voltages. The outcome of such a study has been the design and realization of a distributed measurement system which continuously monitor the phase signals in different points of a network, detect the occurrence of transients superposed to the fundamental steady state component and register the time of occurrence of such events. The data set is finally used to locate the source of the transient disturbance propagating along the network lines. Most of the oscillatory transients affecting line voltages are due to faults occurring in any point of the distribution system and have to be seen before protection equipment intervention. An important conclusion is that the method can improve the monitored network reliability, since the knowledge of the location of a fault allows the energy manager to reduce as much as possible both the area of the network to be disconnected for protection purposes and the time spent by technical staff to recover the abnormal condition and/or the damage. The part of the thesis presenting the results of such a study and activity is structured as follows: chapter 3 deals with the propagation of electromagnetic transients in power systems by defining characteristics and causes of the phenomena and briefly reporting the theory and approaches used to study transients propagation. Then the state of the art concerning methods to detect and locate faults in distribution networks is presented. Finally the attention is paid on the particular technique adopted for the same purpose during the thesis, and the methods developed on the basis of such approach. Chapter 4 reports the configuration of the distribution networks on which the fault location method has been applied by means of simulations as well as the results obtained case by case. In this way the performance featured by the location procedure firstly in ideal then in realistic operating conditions are tested. In chapter 5 the measurement system designed to implement the transients detection and fault location method is presented. The hardware belonging to the measurement chain of every acquisition channel in remote stations is described. Then, the global measurement system is characterized by considering the non ideal aspects of each device that can concur to the final combined uncertainty on the estimated position of the fault in the network under test. Finally, such parameter is computed according to the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurements, by means of a numeric procedure. In the last chapter a device is described that has been designed and realized during the PhD activity aiming at substituting the commercial capacitive voltage divider belonging to the conditioning block of the measurement chain. Such a study has been carried out aiming at providing an alternative to the used transducer that could feature equivalent performance and lower cost. In this way, the economical impact of the investment associated to the whole measurement system would be significantly reduced, making the method application much more feasible.

Tecniche per il controllo dinamico del consumo di potenza per piattaforme system-on-chip

Providing support for multimedia applications on low-power mobile devices remains a significant research challenge. This is primarily due to two reasons: • Portable mobile devices have modest sizes and weights, and therefore inadequate resources, low CPU processing power, reduced display capabilities, limited memory and battery lifetimes as compared to desktop and laptop systems. • On the other hand, multimedia applications tend to have distinctive QoS and processing requirementswhichmake themextremely resource-demanding. This innate conflict introduces key research challenges in the design of multimedia applications and device-level power optimization. Energy efficiency in this kind of platforms can be achieved only via a synergistic hardware and software approach. In fact, while System-on-Chips are more and more programmable thus providing functional flexibility, hardwareonly power reduction techniques cannot maintain consumption under acceptable bounds. It is well understood both in research and industry that system configuration andmanagement cannot be controlled efficiently only relying on low-level firmware and hardware drivers. In fact, at this level there is lack of information about user application activity and consequently about the impact of power management decision on QoS. Even though operating system support and integration is a requirement for effective performance and energy management, more effective and QoSsensitive power management is possible if power awareness and hardware configuration control strategies are tightly integratedwith domain-specificmiddleware services. The main objective of this PhD research has been the exploration and the integration of amiddleware-centric energymanagement with applications and operating-system. We choose to focus on the CPU-memory and the video subsystems, since they are the most power-hungry components of an embedded system. A second main objective has been the definition and implementation of software facilities (like toolkits, API, and run-time engines) in order to improve programmability and performance efficiency of such platforms. Enhancing energy efficiency and programmability ofmodernMulti-Processor System-on-Chips (MPSoCs) Consumer applications are characterized by tight time-to-market constraints and extreme cost sensitivity. The software that runs on modern embedded systems must be high performance, real time, and even more important low power. Although much progress has been made on these problems, much remains to be done. Multi-processor System-on-Chip (MPSoC) are increasingly popular platforms for high performance embedded applications. This leads to interesting challenges in software development since efficient software development is a major issue for MPSoc designers. An important step in deploying applications on multiprocessors is to allocate and schedule concurrent tasks to the processing and communication resources of the platform. The problem of allocating and scheduling precedenceconstrained tasks on processors in a distributed real-time system is NP-hard. There is a clear need for deployment technology that addresses thesemulti processing issues. This problem can be tackled by means of specific middleware which takes care of allocating and scheduling tasks on the different processing elements and which tries also to optimize the power consumption of the entire multiprocessor platform. This dissertation is an attempt to develop insight into efficient, flexible and optimalmethods for allocating and scheduling concurrent applications tomultiprocessor architectures. It is a well-known problem in literature: this kind of optimization problems are very complex even in much simplified variants, therefore most authors propose simplified models and heuristic approaches to solve it in reasonable time. Model simplification is often achieved by abstracting away platform implementation ”details”. As a result, optimization problems become more tractable, even reaching polynomial time complexity. Unfortunately, this approach creates an abstraction gap between the optimization model and the real HW-SW platform. The main issue with heuristic or, more in general, with incomplete search is that they introduce an optimality gap of unknown size. They provide very limited or no information on the distance between the best computed solution and the optimal one. The goal of this work is to address both abstraction and optimality gaps, formulating accurate models which accounts for a number of ”non-idealities” in real-life hardware platforms, developing novel mapping algorithms that deterministically find optimal solutions, and implementing software infrastructures required by developers to deploy applications for the targetMPSoC platforms. Energy Efficient LCDBacklightAutoregulation on Real-LifeMultimediaAp- plication Processor Despite the ever increasing advances in Liquid Crystal Display’s (LCD) technology, their power consumption is still one of the major limitations to the battery life of mobile appliances such as smart phones, portable media players, gaming and navigation devices. There is a clear trend towards the increase of LCD size to exploit the multimedia capabilities of portable devices that can receive and render high definition video and pictures. Multimedia applications running on these devices require LCD screen sizes of 2.2 to 3.5 inches andmore to display video sequences and pictures with the required quality. LCD power consumption is dependent on the backlight and pixel matrix driving circuits and is typically proportional to the panel area. As a result, the contribution is also likely to be considerable in future mobile appliances. To address this issue, companies are proposing low power technologies suitable for mobile applications supporting low power states and image control techniques. On the research side, several power saving schemes and algorithms can be found in literature. Some of them exploit software-only techniques to change the image content to reduce the power associated with the crystal polarization, some others are aimed at decreasing the backlight level while compensating the luminance reduction by compensating the user perceived quality degradation using pixel-by-pixel image processing algorithms. The major limitation of these techniques is that they rely on the CPU to perform pixel-based manipulations and their impact on CPU utilization and power consumption has not been assessed. This PhDdissertation shows an alternative approach that exploits in a smart and efficient way the hardware image processing unit almost integrated in every current multimedia application processors to implement a hardware assisted image compensation that allows dynamic scaling of the backlight with a negligible impact on QoS. The proposed approach overcomes CPU-intensive techniques by saving system power without requiring either a dedicated display technology or hardware modification. Thesis Overview The remainder of the thesis is organized as follows. The first part is focused on enhancing energy efficiency and programmability of modern Multi-Processor System-on-Chips (MPSoCs). Chapter 2 gives an overview about architectural trends in embedded systems, illustrating the principal features of new technologies and the key challenges still open. Chapter 3 presents a QoS-driven methodology for optimal allocation and frequency selection for MPSoCs. The methodology is based on functional simulation and full system power estimation. Chapter 4 targets allocation and scheduling of pipelined stream-oriented applications on top of distributed memory architectures with messaging support. We tackled the complexity of the problem by means of decomposition and no-good generation, and prove the increased computational efficiency of this approach with respect to traditional ones. Chapter 5 presents a cooperative framework to solve the allocation, scheduling and voltage/frequency selection problem to optimality for energyefficient MPSoCs, while in Chapter 6 applications with conditional task graph are taken into account. Finally Chapter 7 proposes a complete framework, called Cellflow, to help programmers in efficient software implementation on a real architecture, the Cell Broadband Engine processor. The second part is focused on energy efficient software techniques for LCD displays. Chapter 8 gives an overview about portable device display technologies, illustrating the principal features of LCD video systems and the key challenges still open. Chapter 9 shows several energy efficient software techniques present in literature, while Chapter 10 illustrates in details our method for saving significant power in an LCD panel. Finally, conclusions are drawn, reporting the main research contributions that have been discussed throughout this dissertation.

Partial discharge in power distribution electrical systems: pulse propagation models and detection optimization

Investigation on impulsive signals, originated from Partial Discharge (PD) phenomena, represents an effective tool for preventing electric failures in High Voltage (HV) and Medium Voltage (MV) systems. The determination of both sensors and instruments bandwidths is the key to achieve meaningful measurements, that is to say, obtaining the maximum Signal-To-Noise Ratio (SNR). The optimum bandwidth depends on the characteristics of the system under test, which can be often represented as a transmission line characterized by signal attenuation and dispersion phenomena. It is therefore necessary to develop both models and techniques which can characterize accurately the PD propagation mechanisms in each system and work out the frequency characteristics of the PD pulses at detection point, in order to design proper sensors able to carry out PD measurement on-line with maximum SNR. Analytical models will be devised in order to predict PD propagation in MV apparatuses. Furthermore, simulation tools will be used where complex geometries make analytical models to be unfeasible. In particular, PD propagation in MV cables, transformers and switchgears will be investigated, taking into account both irradiated and conducted signals associated to PD events, in order to design proper sensors.

Nonlinear / electromagnetic co-simulation and co-design of microwave links in highly polluted and / or strongly inhomogeneous environments

The objective of the Ph.D. thesis is to put the basis of an all-embracing link analysis procedure that may form a general reference scheme for the future state-of-the-art of RF/microwave link design: it is basically meant as a circuit-level simulation of an entire radio link, with – generally multiple – transmitting and receiving antennas examined by EM analysis. In this way the influence of mutual couplings on the frequency-dependent near-field and far-field performance of each element is fully accounted for. The set of transmitters is treated as a unique nonlinear system loaded by the multiport antenna, and is analyzed by nonlinear circuit techniques. In order to establish the connection between transmitters and receivers, the far-fields incident onto the receivers are evaluated by EM analysis and are combined by extending an available Ray Tracing technique to the link study. EM theory is used to describe the receiving array as a linear active multiport network. Link performances in terms of bit error rate (BER) are eventually verified a posteriori by a fast system-level algorithm. In order to validate the proposed approach, four heterogeneous application contexts are provided. A complete MIMO link design in a realistic propagation scenario is meant to constitute the reference case study. The second one regards the design, optimization and testing of various typologies of rectennas for power generation by common RF sources. Finally, the project and implementation of two typologies of radio identification tags, at X-band and V-band respectively. In all the cases the importance of an exhaustive nonlinear/electromagnetic co-simulation and co-design is demonstrated to be essential for any accurate system performance prediction.

Development of an X-ray spectrometric system and feasibility tests of Silicon Drift Detector for medical and space applications

The thesis work concerns X-ray spectrometry for both medical and space applications and is divided into two sections. The first section addresses an X-ray spectrometric system designed to study radiological beams and is devoted to the optimization of diagnostic procedures in medicine. A parametric semi-empirical model capable of efficiently reconstructing diagnostic X-ray spectra in 'middle power' computers was developed and tested. In addition, different silicon diode detectors were tested as real-time detectors in order to provide a real-time evaluation of the spectrum during diagnostic procedures. This project contributes to the field by presenting an improved simulation of a realistic X-ray beam emerging from a common X-ray tube with a complete and detailed spectrum that lends itself to further studies of added filtration, thus providing an optimized beam for different diagnostic applications in medicine. The second section describes the preliminary tests that have been carried out on the first version of an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), integrated with large area position-sensitive Silicon Drift Detector (SDD) to be used on board future space missions. This technology has been developed for the ESA project: LOFT (Large Observatory for X-ray Timing), a new medium-class space mission that the European Space Agency has been assessing since February of 2011. The LOFT project was proposed as part of the Cosmic Vision Program (2015-2025).

Novel algorithms for electronic structure based molecular dynamics with linear system-size scaling

Die vorliegende Arbeit behandelt die Entwicklung und Verbesserung von linear skalierenden Algorithmen für Elektronenstruktur basierte Molekulardynamik. Molekulardynamik ist eine Methode zur Computersimulation des komplexen Zusammenspiels zwischen Atomen und Molekülen bei endlicher Temperatur. Ein entscheidender Vorteil dieser Methode ist ihre hohe Genauigkeit und Vorhersagekraft. Allerdings verhindert der Rechenaufwand, welcher grundsätzlich kubisch mit der Anzahl der Atome skaliert, die Anwendung auf große Systeme und lange Zeitskalen. Ausgehend von einem neuen Formalismus, basierend auf dem großkanonischen Potential und einer Faktorisierung der Dichtematrix, wird die Diagonalisierung der entsprechenden Hamiltonmatrix vermieden. Dieser nutzt aus, dass die Hamilton- und die Dichtematrix aufgrund von Lokalisierung dünn besetzt sind. Das reduziert den Rechenaufwand so, dass er linear mit der Systemgröße skaliert. Um seine Effizienz zu demonstrieren, wird der daraus entstehende Algorithmus auf ein System mit flüssigem Methan angewandt, das extremem Druck (etwa 100 GPa) und extremer Temperatur (2000 - 8000 K) ausgesetzt ist. In der Simulation dissoziiert Methan bei Temperaturen oberhalb von 4000 K. Die Bildung von sp²-gebundenem polymerischen Kohlenstoff wird beobachtet. Die Simulationen liefern keinen Hinweis auf die Entstehung von Diamant und wirken sich daher auf die bisherigen Planetenmodelle von Neptun und Uranus aus. Da das Umgehen der Diagonalisierung der Hamiltonmatrix die Inversion von Matrizen mit sich bringt, wird zusätzlich das Problem behandelt, eine (inverse) p-te Wurzel einer gegebenen Matrix zu berechnen. Dies resultiert in einer neuen Formel für symmetrisch positiv definite Matrizen. Sie verallgemeinert die Newton-Schulz Iteration, Altmans Formel für beschränkte und nicht singuläre Operatoren und Newtons Methode zur Berechnung von Nullstellen von Funktionen. Der Nachweis wird erbracht, dass die Konvergenzordnung immer mindestens quadratisch ist und adaptives Anpassen eines Parameters q in allen Fällen zu besseren Ergebnissen führt.

Modelling, simulation and optimization of maintenance considerations on condition based maintenance

Globalization has increased the pressure on organizations and companies to operate in the most efficient and economic way. This tendency promotes that companies concentrate more and more on their core businesses, outsource less profitable departments and services to reduce costs. By contrast to earlier times, companies are highly specialized and have a low real net output ratio. For being able to provide the consumers with the right products, those companies have to collaborate with other suppliers and form large supply chains. An effect of large supply chains is the deficiency of high stocks and stockholding costs. This fact has lead to the rapid spread of Just-in-Time logistic concepts aimed minimizing stock by simultaneous high availability of products. Those concurring goals, minimizing stock by simultaneous high product availability, claim for high availability of the production systems in the way that an incoming order can immediately processed. Besides of design aspects and the quality of the production system, maintenance has a strong impact on production system availability. In the last decades, there has been many attempts to create maintenance models for availability optimization. Most of them concentrated on the availability aspect only without incorporating further aspects as logistics and profitability of the overall system. However, production system operator’s main intention is to optimize the profitability of the production system and not the availability of the production system. Thus, classic models, limited to represent and optimize maintenance strategies under the light of availability, fail. A novel approach, incorporating all financial impacting processes of and around a production system, is needed. The proposed model is subdivided into three parts, maintenance module, production module and connection module. This subdivision provides easy maintainability and simple extendability. Within those modules, all aspect of production process are modeled. Main part of the work lies in the extended maintenance and failure module that offers a representation of different maintenance strategies but also incorporates the effect of over-maintaining and failed maintenance (maintenance induced failures). Order release and seizing of the production system are modeled in the production part. Due to computational power limitation, it was not possible to run the simulation and the optimization with the fully developed production model. Thus, the production model was reduced to a black-box without higher degree of details.

Tumor budding score based on 10 high-power fields is a promising basis for a standardized prognostic scoring system in stage II colorectal cancer

Tumor budding is recognized by the World Health Organization as an additional prognostic factor in colorectal cancer but remains unreported in diagnostic work due to the absence of a standardized scoring method. This study aims to assess the most prognostic and reproducible scoring systems for tumor budding in colorectal cancer. Tumor budding on pancytokeratin-stained whole tissue sections from 105 well-characterized stage II patients was scored by 3 observers using 7 methods: Hase, Nakamura, Ueno, Wang (conventional and rapid method), densest high-power field, and 10 densest high-power fields. The predictive value for clinicopathologic features, the prognostic significance, and interobserver variability of each scoring method was analyzed. Pancytokeratin staining allowed accurate evaluation of tumor buds. Interobserver agreement for 3 observers was excellent for densest high-power field (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.83) and 10 densest high-power fields (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.91). Agreement was moderate to substantial for the conventional Wang method (κ = 0.46-0.62) and moderate for the rapid method (κ = 0.46-0.58). For Nakamura, moderate agreement (κ = 0.41-0.52) was reached, whereas concordance was fair to moderate for Ueno (κ = 0.39-0.56) and Hase (κ = 0.29-0.51). The Hase, Ueno, densest high-power field, and 10 densest high-power field methods identified a significant association of tumor budding with tumor border configuration. In multivariate analysis, only tumor budding as evaluated in densest high-power field and 10 densest high-power fields had significant prognostic effects on patient survival (P < .01), with high prognostic accuracy over the full 10-year follow-up. Scoring tumor buds in 10 densest high-power fields is a promising method to identify stage II patients at high risk for recurrence in daily diagnostics; it is highly reproducible, accounts for heterogeneity, and has a strong predictive value for adverse outcome.

Fading pdf of free-space optical communication system with pointing error

A free-space optical (FSO) laser communication system with perfect fast-tracking experiences random power fading due to atmospheric turbulence. For a FSO communication system without fast-tracking or with imperfect fast-tracking, the fading probability density function (pdf) is also affected by the pointing error. In this thesis, the overall fading pdfs of FSO communication system with pointing errors are calculated using an analytical method based on the fast-tracked on-axis and off-axis fading pdfs and the fast-tracked beam profile of a turbulence channel. The overall fading pdf is firstly studied for the FSO communication system with collimated laser beam. Large-scale numerical wave-optics simulations are performed to verify the analytically calculated fading pdf with collimated beam under various turbulence channels and pointing errors. The calculated overall fading pdfs are almost identical to the directly simulated fading pdfs. The calculated overall fading pdfs are also compared with the gamma-gamma (GG) and the log-normal (LN) fading pdf models. They fit better than both the GG and LN fading pdf models under different receiver aperture sizes in all the studied cases. Further, the analytical method is expanded to the FSO communication system with beam diverging angle case. It is shown that the gamma pdf model is still valid for the fast-tracked on-axis and off-axis fading pdfs with point-like receiver aperture when the laser beam is propagated with beam diverging angle. Large-scale numerical wave-optics simulations prove that the analytically calculated fading pdfs perfectly fit the overall fading pdfs for both focused and diverged beam cases. The influence of the fast-tracked on-axis and off-axis fading pdfs, the fast-tracked beam profile, and the pointing error on the overall fading pdf is also discussed. At last, the analytical method is compared with the previous heuristic fading pdf models proposed since 1970s. Although some of previously proposed fading pdf models provide close fit to the experiment and simulation data, these close fits only exist under particular conditions. Only analytical method shows accurate fit to the directly simulated fading pdfs under different turbulence strength, propagation distances, receiver aperture sizes and pointing errors.

Dynamic modeling, simulation and control design of a parafoil-payload system for ship launched aerial delivery system (SLADS)

The objective of this research was to develop a high-fidelity dynamic model of a parafoilpayload system with respect to its application for the Ship Launched Aerial Delivery System (SLADS). SLADS is a concept in which cargo can be transfered from ship to shore using a parafoil-payload system. It is accomplished in two phases: An initial towing phase when the glider follows the towing vessel in a passive lift mode and an autonomous gliding phase when the system is guided to the desired point. While many previous researchers have analyzed the parafoil-payload system when it is released from another airborne vehicle, limited work has been done in the area of towing up the system from ground or sea. One of the main contributions of this research was the development of a nonlinear dynamic model of a towed parafoil-payload system. After performing an extensive literature review of the existing methods of modeling a parafoil-payload system, a five degree-of-freedom model was developed. The inertial and geometric properties of the system were investigated to predict accurate results in the simulation environment. Since extensive research has been done in determining the aerodynamic characteristics of a paraglider, an existing aerodynamic model was chosen to incorporate the effects of air flow around the flexible paraglider wing. During the towing phase, it is essential that the parafoil-payload system follow the line of the towing vessel path to prevent an unstable flight condition called ‘lockout’. A detailed study of the causes of lockout, its mathematical representation and the flight conditions and the parameters related to lockout, constitute another contribution of this work. A linearized model of the parafoil-payload system was developed and used to analyze the stability of the system about equilibrium conditions. The relationship between the control surface inputs and the stability was investigated. In addition to stability of flight, one more important objective of SLADS is to tow up the parafoil-payload system as fast as possible. The tension in the tow cable is directly proportional to the rate of ascent of the parafoil-payload system. Lockout instability is more favorable when tow tensions are large. Thus there is a tradeoff between susceptibility to lockout and rapid deployment. Control strategies were also developed for optimal tow up and to maintain stability in the event of disturbances.

Micro combined heat and power laboratory development

Micro Combined Heat and Power (Micro-CHP) system produces both electricity and heat required for residential or small business applications. Use of Micro-CHP in a residential application not only creates energy and economic savings but also reduces the carbon foot print of the house or small business. Additionally, micro-CHP can subsidize its cost of operation by selling excess electricity produced back to the grid. Even though Micro-CHP remains attractive on paper, high initial cost and optimization issues in residential scale heat and electrical requirement has kept this technology from becoming a success. To understand and overcome all disadvantages posed my Micro-CHP system, a laboratory is developed to test different scenarios of Micro-CHP applications so that we can learn and improve the current technology. This report focuses on the development of this Micro-CHP laboratory including installation of Ecopower micro-CHP unit, developing fuel line and exhaust line for Ecopower unit, design of electrical and thermal loop, installing all the instrumentation required for data collection on the Ecopower unit and developing controls for heat load simulation using thermal loop. Also a simulation of Micro-CHP running on Syngas is done in Matlab. This work was supported through the donation of ‘Ecopower’ a Micro-CHP unit by Marathon Engine and through the support of Michigan Tech REF-IF grand.

Development of an optimization model for biofuel facility size and location and a simulation model for design of a biofuel supply chain

To mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil, the United States (U.S.) is pursuing several options to create biofuels from renewable woody biomass (hereafter referred to as “biomass”). Because of the distributed nature of biomass feedstock, the cost and complexity of biomass recovery operations has significant challenges that hinder increased biomass utilization for energy production. To facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization and tapping unused forest residues, it is proposed to develop biofuel supply chain models based on optimization and simulation approaches. The biofuel supply chain is structured around four components: biofuel facility locations and sizes, biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation, and storage. A Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach is proposed as a first step for selecting potential facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass based on a set of evaluation criteria, such as accessibility to biomass, railway/road transportation network, water body and workforce. The development of optimization and simulation models is also proposed. The results of the models will be used to determine (1) the number, location, and size of the biofuel facilities, and (2) the amounts of biomass to be transported between the harvesting areas and the biofuel facilities over a 20-year timeframe. The multi-criteria objective is to minimize the weighted sum of the delivered feedstock cost, energy consumption, and GHG emissions simultaneously. Finally, a series of sensitivity analyses will be conducted to identify the sensitivity of the decisions, such as the optimal site selected for the biofuel facility, to changes in influential parameters, such as biomass availability and transportation fuel price. Intellectual Merit The proposed research will facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization in the renewable biofuel industry. The GIS-based facility location analysis considers a series of factors which have not been considered simultaneously in previous research. Location analysis is critical to the financial success of producing biofuel. The modeling of woody biomass supply chains using both optimization and simulation, combing with the GIS-based approach as a precursor, have not been done to date. The optimization and simulation models can help to ensure the economic and environmental viability and sustainability of the entire biofuel supply chain at both the strategic design level and the operational planning level. Broader Impacts The proposed models for biorefineries can be applied to other types of manufacturing or processing operations using biomass. This is because the biomass feedstock supply chain is similar, if not the same, for biorefineries, biomass fired or co-fired power plants, or torrefaction/pelletization operations. Additionally, the research results of this research will continue to be disseminated internationally through publications in journals, such as Biomass and Bioenergy, and Renewable Energy, and presentations at conferences, such as the 2011 Industrial Engineering Research Conference. For example, part of the research work related to biofuel facility identification has been published: Zhang, Johnson and Sutherland [2011] (see Appendix A). There will also be opportunities for the Michigan Tech campus community to learn about the research through the Sustainable Future Institute.