Tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstruction over northern Vietnam from Fokienia hodginsii: eighteenth century mega-drought and tropical Pacific influence

We present here the first statistically calibrated and verified tree-ring reconstruction of climate from continental Southeast Asia.The reconstructed variable is March-May (MAM) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) based on ring widths from 22 trees (42 radial cores) of rare and long-lived conifer, Fokienia hodginsii (Po Mu as locally called) from northern Vietnam. This is the first published tree ring chronology from Vietnam as well as the first for this species. Spanning 535 years, this is the longest cross-dated tree-ring series yet produced from continental Southeast Asia. Response analysis revealed that the annual growth of Fokienia at this site was mostly governed by soil moisture in the pre-monsoon season. The reconstruction passed the calibration-verification tests commonly used in dendroclimatology, and revealed two prominent periods of drought in the mid-eighteenth and late-nineteenth enturies. The former lasted nearly 30 years and was concurrent with a similar drought over northwestern Thailand inferred from teak rings, suggesting a ``mega-drought'' extending across Indochina in the eighteenth century. Both of our reconstructed droughts are consistent with the periods of warm sea surface temperature (SST)anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Spatial correlation analyses with global SST indicated that ENSO-like anomalies might play a role in modulating droughts over the region, with El Nio (warm) phases resulting in reduced rainfall. However, significant correlation was also seen with SST over the Indian Ocean and the north Pacific,suggesting that ENSO is not the only factor affecting the climate of the area. Spectral analyses revealed significant peaks in the range of 53.9-78.8 years as well as in the ENSO-variability range of 2.0 to 3.2 years.

Long-term trends in fertility of soils under continuous cultivation and cereal cropping in southern Queensland. IX. Simulation of soil carbon and nitrogen pools using CENTURY model

Cultivation and cropping of soils results in a decline in soil organic carbon and soil nitrogen, and can lead to reduced crop yields. The CENTURY model was used to simulate the effects of continuous cultivation and cereal cropping on total soil organic matter (C and N), carbon pools, nitrogen mineralisation, and crop yield from 6 locations in southern Queensland. The model was calibrated for each replicate from the original datasets, allowing comparisons for each replicate rather than site averages. The CENTURY model was able to satisfactorily predict the impact of long-term cultivation and cereal cropping on total organic carbon, but was less successful in simulating the different fractions and nitrogen mineralisation. The model firstly over-predicted the initial (pre-cropping) soil carbon and nitrogen concentration of the sites. To account for the unique shrinking and swelling characteristics of the Vertosol soils, the default annual decomposition rates of the slow and passive carbon pools were doubled, and then the model accurately predicted initial conditions. The ability of the model to predict carbon pool fractions varied, demonstrating the difficulty inherent in predicting the size of these conceptual pools. The strength of the model lies in the ability to closely predict the starting soil organic matter conditions, and the ability to predict the impact of clearing, cultivation, fertiliser application, and continuous cropping on total soil carbon and nitrogen.

Eradication of invasive species: progress and emerging issues in the 21st century

At an international conference on the eradication of invasive species, held in 2001, Simberloff (2002) noted some past successes in eradication—from the global eradication of smallpox (Fenner et al. 1988) to the many successful eradications of populations (mostly mammals) from small islands (e.g. Veitch and Bell 1990; Burbidge and Morris 2002). However, he cautioned that we needed to be more ambitious and aim higher if we are to prevent and reverse the growing threat of the homogenization of global biodiversity. In this chapter we review how the management strategy of eradication—the permanent removal of entire discrete populations—has contributed to the stretch in goals advocated by Simberloff. We also discuss impediments to eradication success, and summarize how some of the lessons learnt during this process have contributed to the other strategies (prevention and sustained control) that are required to manage the wider threat posed by invasive alien species. We concentrate on terrestrial vertebrates and weeds (our areas of expertise), but touch on terrestrial invertebrates and marine and freshwater species in the discussion on emerging issues, to illustrate some of the different constraints these taxa and habitats impose on the feasibility of eradication.

Eighteenth century style dining area; Steinharter residence; Munich Architecture; Residences; Interior

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Eighteenth century style salon; Steinharter residence; Munich Architecture; Residences; Interior

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Eighteenth century style salon; Steinharter residence; Munich Architecture; Residences; Interior

Digital Image

Eighteenth century style salon; Steinharter residence; Munich Architecture; Residences; Interior

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Nineteenth century narratives reveal historic catch rates for Australian snapper (Pagrus auratus)

Snapper (Pagrus auratus) is widely distributed throughout subtropical and temperate southern oceans and forms a significant recreational and commercial fishery in Queensland, Australia. Using data from government reports, media sources, popular publications and a government fisheries survey carried out in 1910, we compiled information on individual snapper fishing trips that took place prior to the commencement of fisherywide organized data collection, from 1871 to 1939. In addition to extracting all available quantitative data, we translated qualitative information into bounded estimates and used multiple imputation to handle missing values, forming 287 records for which catch rate (snapper fisher−1 h−1) could be derived. Uncertainty was handled through a parametric maximum likelihood framework (a transformed trivariate Gaussian), which facilitated statistical comparisons between data sources. No statistically significant differences in catch rates were found among media sources and the government fisheries survey. Catch rates remained stable throughout the time series, averaging 3.75 snapper fisher−1 h−1 (95% confidence interval, 3.42–4.09) as the fishery expanded into new grounds. In comparison, a contemporary (1993–2002) south-east Queensland charter fishery produced an average catch rate of 0.4 snapper fisher−1 h−1 (95% confidence interval, 0.31–0.58). These data illustrate the productivity of a fishery during its earliest years of development and represent the earliest catch rate data globally for this species. By adopting a formalized approach to address issues common to many historical records – missing data, a lack of quantitative information and reporting bias – our analysis demonstrates the potential for historical narratives to contribute to contemporary fisheries management.

Reconstructions of past climates from documentary and natural sources in Finland since the 18th century

In this paper both documentary and natural proxy data have been used to improve the accuracy of palaeoclimatic knowledge in Finland since the 18th century. Early meteorological observations from Turku (1748-1800) were analyzed first as a potential source of climate variability. The reliability of the calculated mean temperatures was evaluated by comparing them with those of contemporary temperature records from Stockholm, St. Petersburg and Uppsala. The resulting monthly, seasonal and yearly mean temperatures from 1748 to 1800 were compared with the present day mean values (1961-1990): the comparison suggests that the winters of the period 1749-1800 were 0.8 ºC colder than today, while the summers were 0.4 ºC warmer. Over the same period, springs were 0.9 ºC and autumns 0.1 ºC colder than today. Despite their uncertainties when compared with modern meteorological data, early temperature measurements offer direct and daily information about the weather for all months of the year, in contrast with other proxies. Secondly, early meteorological observations from Tornio (1737-1749) and Ylitornio (1792-1838) were used to study the temporal behaviour of the climate-tree growth relationship during the past three centuries in northern Finland. Analyses showed that the correlations between ring widths and mid-summer (July) temperatures did not vary significantly as a function of time. Early (June) and late summer (August) mean temperatures were secondary to mid-summer temperatures in controlling the radial growth. According the dataset used, there was no clear signature of temporally reduced sensitivity of Scots pine ring widths to mid-summer temperatures over the periods of early and modern meteorological observations. Thirdly, plant phenological data with tree-rings from south-west Finland since 1750 were examined as a palaeoclimate indicator. The information from the fragmentary, partly overlapping, partly nonsystematically biased plant phenological records of 14 different phenomena were combined into one continuous time series of phenological indices. The indices were found to be reliable indicators of the February to June temperature variations. In contrast, there was no correlation between the phenological indices and the precipitation data. Moreover, the correlations between the studied tree-rings and spring temperatures varied as a function of time and hence, their use in palaeoclimate reconstruction is questionable. The use of present tree-ring datasets for palaeoclimate purposes may become possible after the application of more sophisticated calibration methods. Climate variability since the 18th century is perhaps best seen in the fourth paper study of the multiproxy spring temperature reconstruction of south-west Finland. With the help of transfer functions, an attempt has been made to utilize both documentary and natural proxies. The reconstruction was verified with statistics showing a high degree of validity between the reconstructed and observed temperatures. According to the proxies and modern meteorological observations from Turku, springs have become warmer and have featured a warming trend since around the 1850s. Over the period of 1750 to around 1850, springs featured larger multidecadal low-frequency variability, as well as a smaller range of annual temperature variations. The coldest springtimes occurred around the 1840s and 1850s and the first decade of the 19th century. Particularly warm periods occurred in the 1760s, 1790s, 1820s, 1930s, 1970s and from 1987 onwards, although in this period cold springs occurred, such as the springs of 1994 and 1996. On the basis of the available material, long-term temperature changes have been related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (February-June).

Seltsame Kaempfer der Neuzeit : Ein Essay und Hörspiel.

Annotated typescript of a radio play about Jewish history from 1492 to the 19th century; philosophers - Moses Mendelssohn and others - striving for right, justice, and humanity.

Aspects of Arminian Soteriology in Methodist-Lutheran Ecumenical Dialogues in 20th and 21st Century

The aim of this thesis is to analyse the key ecumenical dialogues between Methodists and Lutherans from the perspective of Arminian soteriology and Methodist theology in general. The primary research question is defined as: "To what extent do the dialogues under analysis relate to Arminian soteriology?" By seeking an answer to this question, new knowledge is sought on the current soteriological position of the Methodist-Lutheran dialogues, the contemporary Methodist theology and the commonalities between the Lutheran and Arminian understanding of soteriology. This way the soteriological picture of the Methodist-Lutheran discussions is clarified. The dialogues under analysis were selected on the basis of versatility. Firstly, the sole world organisation level dialogue was chosen: The Church – Community of Grace. Additionally, the document World Methodist Council and the Joint Declaration on the Doctrine of Justification is analysed as a supporting document. Secondly, a document concerning the discussions between two main-line churches in the United States of America was selected: Confessing Our Faith Together. Thirdly, two dialogues between non-main-line Methodist churches and main-line Lutheran national churches in Europe were chosen: Fellowship of Grace from Norway and Kristuksesta osalliset from Finland. The theoretical approach to the research conducted in this thesis is systematic analysis. The Remonstrant articles of Arminian soteriology are utilised as an analysis tool to examine the soteriological positions of the dialogues. New knowledge is sought by analysing the stances of the dialogues concerning the doctrines of partial depravity, conditional election, universal atonement, resistible grace and conditional perseverance of saints. This way information is also provided for approaching the Calvinist-Arminian controversy from new perspectives. The results of this thesis show that the current soteriological position of the Methodist-Lutheran dialogues is closer to Arminianism than Calvinism. The dialogues relate to Arminian soteriology especially concerning the doctrines of universal atonement, resistible grace and conditional perseverance of saints. The commonalities between the Lutheran and Arminian understanding of soteriology exist mainly in these three doctrines as they are uniformly favoured in the dialogues. The most discussed area of soteriology is human depravity, in which the largest diversity of stances occurs as well. On the other hand, divine election is the least discussed topic. The overall perspective, which the results of the analysis provide, indicates that the Lutherans could approach the Calvinist churches together with the Methodists with a wider theological perspective and understanding when the soteriological issues are considered as principal. Human depravity is discovered as the area of soteriology which requires most work in future ecumenical dialogues. However, the detected Lutheran hybrid notion on depravity (a Calvinist-Arminian mixture) appears to provide a useful new perspective for Calvinist-Arminian ecumenism and offers potentially fruitful considerations to future ecumenical dialogues.

The university and the knowledge network: A new educational model for 21st century learning and employability

The higher education sector is under ongoing pressure to demonstrate quality and efficacy of educational provision, including graduate outcomes. Preparing students as far as possible for the world of professional work has become one of the central tasks of contemporary universities. This challenging task continues to receive significant attention by policy makers and scholars, in the broader contexts of widespread labour market uncertainty and massification of the higher education system (Tomlinson, 2012). In contrast to the previous era of the university, in which ongoing professional employment was virtually guaranteed to university-qualified individuals, contemporary graduates must now be proactive and flexible. They must adapt to a job market that may not accept them immediately, and has continually shifting requirements (Clarke, 2008). The saying goes that rather than seeking security in employment, graduates must now “seek security in employability”. However, as I will argue in this chapter, the current curricular and pedagogic approaches universities adopt, and indeed the core structural characteristics of university-based education, militate against the development of the capabilities that graduates require now and into the future.

Pivotal principles for digital earth development in the 21st century

Reductionist thinking will no longer suffice to address contemporary, complex challenges that defy sectoral, national, or disciplinary boundaries. Furthermore, lessons learned from the past cannot be confidently used to predict outcomes or help guide future actions. The authors propose that the confluence of a number of technology and social disruptors presents a pivotal moment in history to enable real-time, accelerated and integrated action that can adequately support a ‘future earth’ through transformational solutions. Building on more than a decade of dialogues hosted by the International Society for Digital Earth (ISDE), and evolving a briefing note presented to delegates of Pivotal2015, the paper presents an emergent context for collectively addressing spatial information, sustainable development and good governance through three guiding principles for enabling prosperous living in the 21st Century. These are: (1) open data, (2) real world context and (3) informed visualization for decision support. The paper synthesizes an interdisciplinary dialogue to create a credible and positive future vision of collaborative and transparent action for the betterment of humanity and planet. It is intended that the three Pivotal Principles can be used as an elegant framework for action towards the Digital Earth vision, across local, regional, and international communities and organizations.

A playful side to twelfth-century mathematics

As editors of the book Lilavati's Daughters: The Women Scientists of India, reviewed by Asha Gopinathan (Nature 460, 1082; 2009), we would like to elaborate on the background to its title. Lilavati was a mathematical treatise of the twelfth century, composed by the mathematician and astronomer Bhaskaracharya (1114–85) — also known as Bhaskara II — who was a teacher of repute and author of several other texts. The name Lilavati, which literally means 'playful', is a surprising title for an early scientific book. Some of the mathematical problems posed in the book are in verse form, and are addressed to a girl, the eponymous Lilavati. However, there is little real evidence concerning Lilavati's historicity. Tradition holds that she was Bhaskaracharya's daughter and that he wrote the treatise to console her after an accident that left her unable to marry. But this could be a later interpolation, as the idea was first mentioned in a Persian commentary. An alternative view has it that Lilavati was married at an inauspicious time and was widowed shortly afterwards. Other sources have implied that Lilavati was Bhaskaracharya's wife, or even one of his students — raising the possibility that women in parts of the Indian subcontinent could have participated in higher education as early as eight centuries ago. However, given that Bhaskara was a poet and pedagogue, it is also possible that he chose to address his mathematical problems to a doe-eyed girl simply as a whimsical and charming literary device.

The performance in context model: A 21st century tertiary dance teaching pedagogy

Despite tertiary institutions acknowledging that reflective practice is an essential component of undergraduate dance teacher training, there is often a disparity between the tertiary students’ reflective skills and the more sophisticated reflective ability needed to navigate the 21st century workforce (Silva 2008). This paper charts the evolution of a dance teaching reflective pedagogy within a suite of three units across a three-year undergraduate dance teacher-training course for school, community and studio dance teachers. This reflective pedagogy based on exploration, collaboration, critical questioning and connections with community forms the basis of a model of tertiary dance teacher- training; the Performance in Context Model (PCM). Over the past four years, through four cycles of action research, the PCM pedagogy, context and engagement with community has developed into a successful model integrating practical dance teaching skills, artistry and community engagement. The PCM represents a holistic collaborative approach to dance teacher education: the marrying of ‘teacher-as-artist’, ‘teacher-as-performer’ and ‘teacher-as-researcher’. More specifically, it emphasises the need for mature, reflective, receptive and flexible approaches in response to dance teaching and learning. These are enacted in a variety of contexts, with tertiary dance teaching students identifying as teaching artists, as well as researchers of their own practice.