Good just isn't Good Enough: Humean Chances and Boltzmannian Statistical Physics

Statistical physicists assume a probability distribution over micro-states to explain thermodynamic behavior. The question of this paper is whether these probabilities are part of a best system and can thus be interpreted as Humean chances. I consider two Boltzmannian accounts of the Second Law, viz.\ a globalist and a localist one. In both cases, the probabilities fail to be chances because they have rivals that are roughly equally good. I conclude with the diagnosis that well-defined micro-probabilities under-estimate the robust character of explanations in statistical physics.

Service Level Agreements-Driven Management of Distributed Applications in Cloud Computing Environments

Cloud Computing enables provisioning and distribution of highly scalable services in a reliable, on-demand and sustainable manner. However, objectives of managing enterprise distributed applications in cloud environments under Service Level Agreement (SLA) constraints lead to challenges for maintaining optimal resource control. Furthermore, conflicting objectives in management of cloud infrastructure and distributed applications might lead to violations of SLAs and inefficient use of hardware and software resources. This dissertation focusses on how SLAs can be used as an input to the cloud management system, increasing the efficiency of allocating resources, as well as that of infrastructure scaling. First, we present an extended SLA semantic model for modelling complex service-dependencies in distributed applications, and for enabling automated cloud infrastructure management operations. Second, we describe a multi-objective VM allocation algorithm for optimised resource allocation in infrastructure clouds. Third, we describe a method of discovering relations between the performance indicators of services belonging to distributed applications and then using these relations for building scaling rules that a CMS can use for automated management of VMs. Fourth, we introduce two novel VM-scaling algorithms, which optimally scale systems composed of VMs, based on given SLA performance constraints. All presented research works were implemented and tested using enterprise distributed applications.

Neutrino physics with multi-ton scale liquid xenon detectors

We study the sensitivity of large-scale xenon detectors to low-energy solar neutrinos, to coherent neutrino-nucleus scattering and to neutrinoless double beta decay. As a concrete example, we consider the xenon part of the proposed DARWIN (Dark Matter WIMP Search with Noble Liquids) experiment. We perform detailed Monte Carlo simulations of the expected backgrounds, considering realistic energy resolutions and thresholds in the detector. In a low-energy window of 2–30 keV, where the sensitivity to solar pp and 7Be-neutrinos is highest, an integrated pp-neutrino rate of 5900 events can be reached in a fiducial mass of 14 tons of natural xenon, after 5 years of data. The pp-neutrino flux could thus be measured with a statistical uncertainty around 1%, reaching the precision of solar model predictions. These low-energy solar neutrinos will be the limiting background to the dark matter search channel for WIMP-nucleon cross sections below ~2X 10-48 cm2 and WIMP masses around 50 GeV c 2, for an assumed 99.5% rejection of electronic recoils due to elastic neutrino-electron scatters. Nuclear recoils from coherent scattering of solar neutrinos will limit the sensitivity to WIMP masses below ~6 GeV c-2 to cross sections above ~4X10-45cm2. DARWIN could reach a competitive half-life sensitivity of 5.6X1026 y to the neutrinoless double beta decay of 136Xe after 5 years of data, using 6 tons of natural xenon in the central detector region.

Gas composition of the main volatile elements in protoplanetary discs and its implication for planet formation

Context. Direct observations of gaseous exoplanets reveal that their gas envelope has a higher C/O ratio than that of the host star (e.g., Wasp 12-b). This has been explained by considering that the gas phase of the disc could be inhomogeneous, exceeding the stellar C/O ratio in regions where these planets formed; but few studies have considered the drift of the gas and planet migration. Aims. We aim to derive the gas composition in planets through planet formation to evaluate if the formation of giant planets with an enriched C/O ratio is possible. The study focusses on the effects of different processes on the C/O ratio, such as the disc evolution, the drift of gas, and planet migration. Methods. We used our previous models for computing the chemical composition, together with a planet formation model, to which we added the composition and drift of the gas phase of the disc, which is composed of the main volatile species H2O, CO, CO2, NH3, N2, CH3OH, CH4, and H2S, H2 and He. The study focusses on the region where ice lines are present and influence the C/O ratio of the planets. Results. Modelling shows that the condensation of volatile species as a function of radial distance allows for C/O enrichment in specific parts of the protoplanetary disc of up to four times the solar value. This leads to the formation of planets that can be enriched in C/O in their envelope up to three times the solar value. Planet migration, gas phase evolution and disc irradiation enables the evolution of the initial C/O ratio that decreases in the outer part of the disc and increases in the inner part of the disc. The total C/O ratio of the planets is governed by the contribution of ices accreted, suggesting that high C/O ratios measured in planetary atmospheres are indicative of a lack of exchange of material between the core of a planet and its envelope or an observational bias. It also suggests that the observed C/O ratio is not representative of the total C/O ratio of the planet.

Von Fuzzy-Sets zu Computing-with-Words

Dieser Artikel bietet einen Überblick über die Entwicklung und Zusammenhänge der einzelnen Elemente der Fuzzy-Logik, wovon Fuzzy-Set-Theorie die Grundlage bildet. Die Grundproblematik besteht in der Handhabung von linguistischen Informationen, die häufig durch Ungenauigkeit gekennzeichnet sind. Die verschiedenen technischen Anwendungen von Fuzzy-Logik bieten eine Möglichkeit, intelligentere Computersysteme zu konstruieren, die mit unpräzisen Informationen umgehen können. Solche Systeme sind Indizien für die Entstehung einer neuen Ära des Cognitive-Computing, di in diesemArtikel ebenfalls zur Sprache kommt. Für das bessere Verständnis wird der Artikel mit einem Beispiel aus der Meteorologie (d. h. Schnee in Adelboden) begleitet.

Granular computing as a tool of human data interaction - a cognitive cities use case

The article proposes granular computing as a theoretical, formal and methodological basis for the newly emerging research field of human–data interaction (HDI). We argue that the ability to represent and reason with information granules is a prerequisite for data legibility. As such, it allows for extending the research agenda of HDI to encompass the topic of collective intelligence amplification, which is seen as an opportunity of today’s increasingly pervasive computing environments. As an example of collective intelligence amplification in HDI, we introduce a collaborative urban planning use case in a cognitive city environment and show how an iterative process of user input and human-oriented automated data processing can support collective decision making. As a basis for automated human-oriented data processing, we use the spatial granular calculus of granular geometry.

BitWorker, a Decentralized Distributed Computing System based on BitTorrent

In this paper we present BitWorker, a platform for community distributed computing based on BitTorrent. Any splittable task can be easily specified by a user in a meta-information task file, such that it can be downloaded and performed by other volunteers. Peers find each other using Distributed Hash Tables, download existing results, and compute missing ones. Unlike existing distributed computing schemes relying on centralized coordination point(s), our scheme is totally distributed, therefore, highly robust. We evaluate the performance of BitWorker using mathematical models and real tests, showing processing and robustness gains. BitWorker is available for download and use by the community.

Gravitational wave background from Standard Model physics: qualitative features

Because of physical processes ranging from microscopic particle collisions to macroscopic hydrodynamic fluctuations, any plasma in thermal equilibrium emits gravitational waves. For the largest wavelengths the emission rate is proportional to the shear viscosity of the plasma. In the Standard Model at 0T > 16 GeV, the shear viscosity is dominated by the most weakly interacting particles, right-handed leptons, and is relatively large. We estimate the order of magnitude of the corresponding spectrum of gravitational waves. Even though at small frequencies (corresponding to the sub-Hz range relevant for planned observatories such as eLISA) this background is tiny compared with that from non-equilibrium sources, the total energy carried by the high-frequency part of the spectrum is non-negligible if the production continues for a long time. We suggest that this may constrain (weakly) the highest temperature of the radiation epoch. Observing the high-frequency part directly sets a very ambitious goal for future generations of GHz-range detectors.

Service level agreements-driven management of distributed applications in cloud computing environments

Advancements in cloud computing have enabled the proliferation of distributed applications, which require management and control of multiple services. However, without an efficient mechanism for scaling services in response to changing workload conditions, such as number of connected users, application performance might suffer, leading to violations of Service Level Agreements (SLA) and possible inefficient use of hardware resources. Combining dynamic application requirements with the increased use of virtualised computing resources creates a challenging resource Management context for application and cloud-infrastructure owners. In such complex environments, business entities use SLAs as a means for specifying quantitative and qualitative requirements of services. There are several challenges in running distributed enterprise applications in cloud environments, ranging from the instantiation of service VMs in the correct order using an adequate quantity of computing resources, to adapting the number of running services in response to varying external loads, such as number of users. The application owner is interested in finding the optimum amount of computing and network resources to use for ensuring that the performance requirements of all her/his applications are met. She/he is also interested in appropriately scaling the distributed services so that application performance guarantees are maintained even under dynamic workload conditions. Similarly, the infrastructure Providers are interested in optimally provisioning the virtual resources onto the available physical infrastructure so that her/his operational costs are minimized, while maximizing the performance of tenants’ applications. Motivated by the complexities associated with the management and scaling of distributed applications, while satisfying multiple objectives (related to both consumers and providers of cloud resources), this thesis proposes a cloud resource management platform able to dynamically provision and coordinate the various lifecycle actions on both virtual and physical cloud resources using semantically enriched SLAs. The system focuses on dynamic sizing (scaling) of virtual infrastructures composed of virtual machines (VM) bounded application services. We describe several algorithms for adapting the number of VMs allocated to the distributed application in response to changing workload conditions, based on SLA-defined performance guarantees. We also present a framework for dynamic composition of scaling rules for distributed service, which used benchmark-generated application Monitoring traces. We show how these scaling rules can be combined and included into semantic SLAs for controlling allocation of services. We also provide a detailed description of the multi-objective infrastructure resource allocation problem and various approaches to satisfying this problem. We present a resource management system based on a genetic algorithm, which performs allocation of virtual resources, while considering the optimization of multiple criteria. We prove that our approach significantly outperforms reactive VM-scaling algorithms as well as heuristic-based VM-allocation approaches.

A new measure for party coherence: Applying a physics-based concept to the Swiss party system

The paper revives a theoretical definition of party coherence as being composed of two basic elements, cohesion and factionalism, to propose and apply a novel empirical measure based on spin physics. The simultaneous analysis of both components using a single measurement concept is applied to data representing the political beliefs of candidates in the Swiss general elections of 2003 and 2007, proposing a connection between the coherence of the beliefs party members hold and the assessment of parties being at risk of splitting. We also compare our measure with established polarization measures and demonstrate its advantage with respect to multi-dimensional data that lack clear structure. Furthermore, we outline how our analysis supports the distinction between bottom-up and top-down mechanisms of party splitting. In this way, we are able to turn the intuition of coherence into a defined quantitative concept that, additionally, offers a methodological basis for comparative research of party coherence. Our work serves as an example of how a complex systems approach allows to get a new perspective on a long-standing issue in political science.

Medical image computing in diagnosis and intervention of spinal diseases

Spinal image analysis and computer assisted intervention have emerged as new and independent research areas, due to the importance of treatment of spinal diseases, increasing availability of spinal imaging, and advances in analytics and navigation tools. Among others, multiple modality spinal image analysis and spinal navigation tools have emerged as two keys in this new area. We believe that further focused research in these two areas will lead to a much more efficient and accelerated research path, avoiding detours that exist in other applications, such as in brain and heart.

A new Stata command for computing and graphing percentile shares

Percentile shares provide an intuitive and easy-to-understand way for analyzing income or wealth distributions. A celebrated example are the top income shares sported by the works of Thomas Piketty and colleagues. Moreover, series of percentile shares, defined as differences between Lorenz ordinates, can be used to visualize whole distributions or changes in distributions. In this talk, I present a new command called pshare that computes and graphs percentile shares (or changes in percentile shares) from individual level data. The command also provides confidence intervals and supports survey estimation.

A new Stata command for computing and graphing percentile shares

Percentile shares provide an intuitive and easy-to-understand way for analyzing income or wealth distributions. A celebrated example is the top income shares sported by the works of Thomas Piketty and colleagues. Moreover, series of percentile shares, defined as differences between Lorenz ordinates, can be used to visualize whole distributions or changes in distributions. In this talk, I present a new command called pshare that computes and graphs percentile shares (or changes in percentile shares) from individual level data. The command also provides confidence intervals and supports survey estimation.