Bayesian doubly optimal group sequential designs for randomized clinical trials

When conducting a randomized comparative clinical trial, ethical, scientific or economic considerations often motivate the use of interim decision rules after successive groups of patients have been treated. These decisions may pertain to the comparative efficacy or safety of the treatments under study, cost considerations, the desire to accelerate the drug evaluation process, or the likelihood of therapeutic benefit for future patients. At the time of each interim decision, an important question is whether patient enrollment should continue or be terminated; either due to a high probability that one treatment is superior to the other, or a low probability that the experimental treatment will ultimately prove to be superior. The use of frequentist group sequential decision rules has become routine in the conduct of phase III clinical trials. In this dissertation, we will present a new Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to the problem of designing a randomized group sequential clinical trial, focusing on two-arm trials with time-to-failure outcomes. Forward simulation is used to obtain optimal decision boundaries for each of a set of possible models. At each interim analysis, we use Bayesian model selection to adaptively choose the model having the largest posterior probability of being correct, and we then make the interim decision based on the boundaries that are optimal under the chosen model. We provide a simulation study to compare this method, which we call Bayesian Doubly Optimal Group Sequential (BDOGS), to corresponding frequentist designs using either O'Brien-Fleming (OF) or Pocock boundaries, as obtained from EaSt 2000. Our simulation results show that, over a wide variety of different cases, BDOGS either performs at least as well as both OF and Pocock, or on average provides a much smaller trial. ^

Interim analysis of clinical trials: Simulation studies of fractional Brownian motion

Interim clinical trial monitoring procedures were motivated by ethical and economic considerations. Classical Brownian motion (Bm) techniques for statistical monitoring of clinical trials were widely used. Conditional power argument and α-spending function based boundary crossing probabilities are popular statistical hypothesis testing procedures under the assumption of Brownian motion. However, it is not rare that the assumptions of Brownian motion are only partially met for trial data. Therefore, I used a more generalized form of stochastic process, called fractional Brownian motion (fBm), to model the test statistics. Fractional Brownian motion does not hold Markov property and future observations depend not only on the present observations but also on the past ones. In this dissertation, we simulated a wide range of fBm data, e.g., H = 0.5 (that is, classical Bm) vs. 0.5< H <1, with treatment effects vs. without treatment effects. Then the performance of conditional power and boundary-crossing based interim analyses were compared by assuming that the data follow Bm or fBm. Our simulation study suggested that the conditional power or boundaries under fBm assumptions are generally higher than those under Bm assumptions when H > 0.5 and also matches better with the empirical results. ^

Effect of patient accrual patterns on power and size of log-rank test for time-to-event outcome in clinical trials

The determination of size as well as power of a test is a vital part of a Clinical Trial Design. This research focuses on the simulation of clinical trial data with time-to-event as the primary outcome. It investigates the impact of different recruitment patterns, and time dependent hazard structures on size and power of the log-rank test. A non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to simulate entry times according to the different accrual patterns. A Weibull distribution is employed to simulate survival times according to the different hazard structures. The current study utilizes simulation methods to evaluate the effect of different recruitment patterns on size and power estimates of the log-rank test. The size of the log-rank test is estimated by simulating survival times with identical hazard rates between the treatment and the control arm of the study resulting in a hazard ratio of one. Powers of the log-rank test at specific values of hazard ratio (≠1) are estimated by simulating survival times with different, but proportional hazard rates for the two arms of the study. Different shapes (constant, decreasing, or increasing) of the hazard function of the Weibull distribution are also considered to assess the effect of hazard structure on the size and power of the log-rank test. ^

On Bayesian seamless phase I-II designs

Early phase clinical trial designs have long been the focus of interest for clinicians and statisticians working in oncology field. There are several standard phse I and phase II designs that have been widely-implemented in medical practice. For phase I design, the most commonly used methods are 3+3 and CRM. A newly-developed Bayesian model-based mTPI design has now been used by an increasing number of hospitals and pharmaceutical companies. The advantages and disadvantages of these three top phase I designs have been discussed in my work here and their performances were compared using simulated data. It was shown that mTPI design exhibited superior performance in most scenarios in comparison with 3+3 and CRM designs. ^ The next major part of my work is proposing an innovative seamless phase I/II design that allows clinicians to conduct phase I and phase II clinical trials simultaneously. Bayesian framework was implemented throughout the whole design. The phase I portion of the design adopts mTPI method, with the addition of futility rule which monitors the efficacy performance of the tested drugs. Dose graduation rules were proposed in this design to allow doses move forward from phase I portion of the study to phase II portion without interrupting the ongoing phase I dose-finding schema. Once a dose graduated to phase II, adaptive randomization was used to randomly allocated patients into different treatment arms, with the intention of more patients being assigned to receive more promising dose(s). Again simulations were performed to compare the performance of this innovative phase I/II design with a recently published phase I/II design, together with the conventional phase I and phase II designs. The simulation results indicated that the seamless phase I/II design outperform the other two competing methods in most scenarios, with superior trial power and the fact that it requires smaller sample size. It also significantly reduces the overall study time. ^ Similar to other early phase clinical trial designs, the proposed seamless phase I/II design requires that the efficacy and safety outcomes being able to be observed in a short time frame. This limitation can be overcome by using validated surrogate marker for the efficacy and safety endpoints.^

Application of the general linear model to assess the effect of missing data on bone marrow mononuclear cell therapy with infusion timing and follow-up MRI

With most clinical trials, missing data presents a statistical problem in evaluating a treatment's efficacy. There are many methods commonly used to assess missing data; however, these methods leave room for bias to enter the study. This thesis was a secondary analysis on data taken from TIME, a phase 2 randomized clinical trial conducted to evaluate the safety and effect of the administration timing of bone marrow mononuclear cells (BMMNC) for subjects with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).^ We evaluated the effect of missing data by comparing the variance inflation factor (VIF) of the effect of therapy between all subjects and only subjects with complete data. Through the general linear model, an unbiased solution was made for the VIF of the treatment's efficacy using the weighted least squares method to incorporate missing data. Two groups were identified from the TIME data: 1) all subjects and 2) subjects with complete data (baseline and follow-up measurements). After the general solution was found for the VIF, it was migrated Excel 2010 to evaluate data from TIME. The resulting numerical value from the two groups was compared to assess the effect of missing data.^ The VIF values from the TIME study were considerably less in the group with missing data. By design, we varied the correlation factor in order to evaluate the VIFs of both groups. As the correlation factor increased, the VIF values increased at a faster rate in the group with only complete data. Furthermore, while varying the correlation factor, the number of subjects with missing data was also varied to see how missing data affects the VIF. When subjects with only baseline data was increased, we saw a significant rate increase in VIF values in the group with only complete data while the group with missing data saw a steady and consistent increase in the VIF. The same was seen when we varied the group with follow-up only data. This essentially showed that the VIFs steadily increased when missing data is not ignored. When missing data is ignored as with our comparison group, the VIF values sharply increase as correlation increases.^

Circumvention of cellular defense responses to DNA -directed nucleoside analogues by the protein kinase inhibitor, UCN-01

DNA-directed nucleoside analogues, such as ara-C, fludarabine, and gemcitabine, are antimetabolites effective in the treatment of a variety of cancers. However, resistance to nucleoside analogue-based chemotherapy in treatments is still a major problem in therapy. Therefore, it is essential to develop rationales for optimizing the use of nucleoside analogues in combination with other anticancer drugs or modalities such as radiation. The present study focuses on establishing mechanism-based combination strategy to overcome resistance to nucleoside analogues. ^ I hypothesized that the cytostatic concentrations of nucleoside analogues may cause S-phase arrest by activating an S-phase checkpoint that consists of a series of kinases. This may allow cells to repair damaged DNA over time and spare cytotoxicity. Thus, the ability of cells to enact an S-phase arrest in response to incorporation of potentially lethal amounts of nucleoside analogue may serve as a mechanism of resistance to S-phase-specific agents. As a corollary, the addition of a kinase inhibitor, such as UCN-01, may dysregulate the checkpoint response and abrogate the survival of S-phase-arrested cells by suppression of the survival signaling pathways. Using gemcitabine as a model of S-phase-specific nucleoside analogues in human acute myelogenous leukemia ML-1 cells, I demonstrated that cells arrested in S-phase in response to cytostatic conditions. Proliferation continued after washing the cells into drug-free medium, suggesting S-phase arrest served as a resistance mechanism of cancer cells to spare cytotoxicity of nucleoside analogues. However, nontoxic concentrations of UCN-01 rapidly killed S-phase-arrested cells by apoptosis. Furthermore, the molecular mechanism for UCN-01-induced apoptosis in S-phase-arrested cells was through inhibition of survival pathways associated with these cells. In this regard, suppression of the PI 3-kinase-Akt-Bad survival pathway as well as the NF-κB signaling pathway were associated with induction of apoptosis in S-phase-arrested cells by UCN-01, whereas the Ras-Raf-MEK-ERK pathway appeared not involved. This study has provided the rationales and strategies for optimizing the design of effective combination therapies to overcome resistance to nucleoside analogues. In fact, a clinical trial of the combination of ara-C with UCN-01 to treat relapsed or refractory AML patients has been initiated at U.T.M.D. Anderson Cancer Center. ^

Identifying the semantics of eligibility criteria of clinical trials based on relevant medical ontologies

An important objective of the INTEGRATE project1 is to build tools that support the efficient execution of post-genomic multi-centric clinical trials in breast cancer, which includes the automatic assessment of the eligibility of patients for available trials. The population suited to be enrolled in a trial is described by a set of free-text eligibility criteria that are both syntactically and semantically complex. At the same time, the assessment of the eligibility of a patient for a trial requires the (machineprocessable) understanding of the semantics of the eligibility criteria in order to further evaluate if the patient data available for example in the hospital EHR satisfies these criteria. This paper presents an analysis of the semantics of the clinical trial eligibility criteria based on relevant medical ontologies in the clinical research domain: SNOMED-CT, LOINC, MedDRA. We detect subsets of these widely-adopted ontologies that characterize the semantics of the eligibility criteria of trials in various clinical domains and compare these sets. Next, we evaluate the occurrence frequency of the concepts in the concrete case of breast cancer (which is our first application domain) in order to provide meaningful priorities for the task of binding/mapping these ontology concepts to the actual patient data. We further assess the effort required to extend our approach to new domains in terms of additional semantic mappings that need to be developed.

New approach for inhibiting Rev function and HIV-1 production using the influenza virus NS1 protein.

The Rev protein of HIV-1, which facilitates the nuclear export of HIV-1 pre-mRNAs, has been a target for antiviral therapy. Here we describe a new strategy for inhibiting Rev function and HIV-1 replication. In contrast to previous approaches, we use a wild-type rather than a mutant Rev protein and covalently link this Rev sequence to the NS1 protein of influenza A virus, a protein that inhibits the nuclear export of mRNAs. The NS1 protein contains an RNA-binding domain mutation (RM), so that the only functional RNA-binding domain in the chimeric protein (NS1RM-Rev) is in the Rev protein sequence. In the presence of the NS1RM-Rev chimeric protein, HIV-1 pre-mRNAs were retained in, rather than exported from, the nucleus. In addition, this chimeric protein effectively inhibited Rev function in trans in transfection experiments and effectively inhibited the production of HIV-1 in tissue culture cells transfected with an infectious molecular clone of HIV-1 DNA. The inhibitory activities of the NS1RM-Rev chimera were at least equivalent to those of the Rev M10 mutant protein, which has been considered to be the prototype trans inhibitor of Rev function and is currently in phase I clinical trials for the treatment of AIDS patients. We discuss (i) the potential for increasing the inhibitory activity of NS1-Rev chimeras against HIV-1 and (ii) the need for additional studies to evaluate these chimeras for the treatment of AIDS.

Systematic review of outcome domains and instruments used in clinical trials of tinnitus treatments in adults

BACKGROUND: There is no evidence-based guidance to facilitate design decisions for confirmatory trials or systematic reviews investigating treatment efficacy for adults with tinnitus. This systematic review therefore seeks to ascertain the current status of trial designs by identifying and evaluating the reporting of outcome domains and instruments in the treatment of adults with tinnitus. METHODS: Records were identified by searching PubMed, EMBASE CINAHL, EBSCO, and CENTRAL clinical trial registries (ClinicalTrials.gov, ISRCTN, ICTRP) and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Eligible records were those published from 1 July 2006 to 12 March 2015. Included studies were those reporting adults aged 18 years or older who reported tinnitus as a primary complaint, and who were enrolled into a randomised controlled trial, a before and after study, a non-randomised controlled trial, a case-controlled study or a cohort study, and written in English. Studies with fewer than 20 participants were excluded. RESULTS: Two hundred and twenty-eight studies were included. Thirty-five different primary outcome domains were identified spanning seven categories (tinnitus percept, impact of tinnitus, co-occurring complaints, quality of life, body structures and function, treatment-related outcomes and unclear or not specified). Over half the studies (55 %) did not clearly define the complaint of interest. Tinnitus loudness was the domain most often reported (14 %), followed by tinnitus distress (7 %). Seventy-eight different primary outcome instruments were identified. Instruments assessing multiple attributes of the impact of tinnitus were most common (34 %). Overall, 24 different patient-reported tools were used, predominantly the Tinnitus Handicap Inventory (15 %). Loudness was measured in diverse ways including a numerical rating scale (8 %), loudness matching (4 %), minimum masking level (1 %) and loudness discomfort level (1 %). Ten percent of studies did not clearly report the instrument used. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate poor appreciation of the basic principles of good trial design, particularly the importance of specifying what aspect of therapeutic benefit is the main outcome. No single outcome was reported in all studies and there was a broad diversity of outcome instruments. PROSPERO REGISTRATION: The systematic review protocol is registered on PROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews): CRD42015017525 . Registered on 12 March 2015 revised on 15 March 2016.

The European Narcolepsy Network (EU-NN) database.

Narcolepsy with cataplexy is a rare disease with an estimated prevalence of 0.02% in European populations. Narcolepsy shares many features of rare disorders, in particular the lack of awareness of the disease with serious consequences for healthcare supply. Similar to other rare diseases, only a few European countries have registered narcolepsy cases in databases of the International Classification of Diseases or in registries of the European health authorities. A promising approach to identify disease-specific adverse health effects and needs in healthcare delivery in the field of rare diseases is to establish a distributed expert network. A first and important step is to create a database that allows collection, storage and dissemination of data on narcolepsy in a comprehensive and systematic way. Here, the first prospective web-based European narcolepsy database hosted by the European Narcolepsy Network is introduced. The database structure, standardization of data acquisition and quality control procedures are described, and an overview provided of the first 1079 patients from 18 European specialized centres. Due to its standardization this continuously increasing data pool is most promising to provide a better insight into many unsolved aspects of narcolepsy and related disorders, including clear phenotype characterization of subtypes of narcolepsy, more precise epidemiological data and knowledge on the natural history of narcolepsy, expectations about treatment effects, identification of post-marketing medication side-effects, and will contribute to improve clinical trial designs and provide facilities to further develop phase III trials.

Adaptive designs in the time to event setting: The potential for benefit and risk

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Antiretroviral Treatment as Prevention in African HIV-1 Serodiscordant Couples: Understanding the Challenges and Opportunities

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Ethical issues in using a cocaine vaccine to treat and prevent cocaine abuse and dependence

A cocaine vaccine'' is a promising immunotherapeutic approach to treating cocaine dependence which induces the immune system to form antibodies that prevent cocaine from crossing the blood brain barrier to act on receptor sites in the brain. Studies in rats show that cocaine antibodies block cocaine from reaching the brain and prevent the reinstatement of cocaine self administration. A successful phase 1 trial of a human cocaine vaccine has been reported. The most promising application of a cocaine vaccine is to prevent relapse to dependence in abstinent users who voluntarily enter treatment. Any use of a vaccine to treat cocaine addicts under legal coercion raises major ethical issues. If this is done at all, it should be carefully trialled first, and only after considerable clinical experience has been obtained in using the vaccine to treat voluntary patients. There will need to be an informed community debate about what role, if any, a cocaine vaccine may have as a way of preventing cocaine addiction in children and adolescents.

A pragmatic 2 × 2 × 2 factorial cluster randomized controlled trial of educational outreach visiting and case conferencing in palliative care—methodology of the Palliative Care Trial [ISRCTN 81117481]

The demand for palliative care is increasing, yet there are few data on the best models of care nor well-validated interventions that translate current evidence into clinical practice. Supporting multidisciplinary patient-centered palliative care while successfully conducting a large clinical trial is a challenge. The Palliative Care Trial (PCT) is a pragmatic 2 x 2 x 2 factorial cluster randomized controlled trial that tests the ability of educational outreach visiting and case conferencing to improve patient-based outcomes such as performance status and pain intensity. Four hundred sixty-one consenting patients and their general practitioners (GPs) were randomized to the following: (1) GP educational outreach visiting versus usual care, (2) Structured patient and caregiver educational outreach visiting versus usual care and (3) A coordinated palliative care model of case conferencing versus the standard model of palliative care in Adelaide, South Australia (3:1 randomization). Main outcome measures included patient functional status over time, pain intensity, and resource utilization. Participants were followed longitudinally until death or November 30, 2004. The interventions are aimed at translating current evidence into clinical practice and there was particular attention in the trial's design to addressing common pitfalls for clinical studies in palliative care. Given the need for evidence about optimal interventions and service delivery models that improve the care of people with life-limiting illness, the results of this rigorous, high quality clinical trial will inform practice. Initial results are expected in mid 2005. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does high intensity resistance training maintain bone mass during moderate weight loss in older overweight adults with type 2 diabetes

The aim was to investigate whether the addition of supervised high intensity progressive resistance training to a moderate weight loss program (RT+WLoss) could maintain bone mineral density (BMD) and lean mass compared to moderate weight loss (WLoss) alone in older overweight adults with type 2 diabetes. We also investigated whether any benefits derived from a supervised RT program could be sustained through an additional home-based program. This was a 12-month trial in which 36 sedentary, overweight adults aged 60 to 80 years with type 2 diabetes were randomized to either a supervised gymnasium-based RT+WLoss or WLoss program for 6 months (phase 1). Thereafter, all participants completed an additional 6-month home-based training without further dietary modification (phase 2). Total body and regional BMD and bone mineral content (BMC), fat mass (FM) and lean mass (LM) were assessed by DXA every 6 months. Diet, muscle strength (1-RM) and serum total testosterone, estradiol, SHBG, insulin and IGF-1 were measured every 3 months. No between group differences were detected for changes in any of the hormonal parameters at any measurement point. In phase 1, after 6 months of gymnasium-based training, weight and FM decreased similarly in both groups (P < 0.01), but LM tended to increase in the RT+WLoss (n=16) relative to the WLoss (n = 13) group [net difference (95% CI), 1.8% (0.2, 3.5), P < 0.05]. Total body BMD and BMC remained unchanged in the RT+WLoss group, but decreased by 0.9 and 1.5%, respectively, in the WLoss group (interaction, P < 0.05). Similar, though non-significant, changes were detected at the femoral neck and lumbar spine (L2-L4). In phase 2, after a further 6 months of home-based training, weight and FM increased significantly in both the RT+WLoss (n = 14) and WLoss (n = 12) group, but there were no significant changes in LM or total body or regional BMD or BMC in either group from 6 to 12 months. These results indicate that in older, overweight adults with type 2 diabetes, dietary modification should be combined with progressive resistance training to optimize the effects on body composition without having a negative effect on bone health.