Critical Sensitivity and Trans-Scale Fluctuations in Catastrophic Rupture

Rupture in the heterogeneous crust appears to be a catastrophe transition. Catastrophic rupture sensitively depends on the details of heterogeneity and stress transfer on multiple scales. These are difficult to identify and deal with. As a result, the threshold of earthquake-like rupture presents uncertainty. This may be the root of the difficulty of earthquake prediction. Based on a coupled pattern mapping model, we represent critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations associated with catastrophic rupture. Critical sensitivity means that a system may become significantly sensitive near catastrophe transition. Trans-scale fluctuations mean that the level of stress fluctuations increases strongly and the spatial scale of stress and damage fluctuations evolves from the mesoscopic heterogeneity scale to the macroscopic scale as the catastrophe regime is approached. The underlying mechanism behind critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations is the coupling effect between heterogeneity and dynamical nonlinearity. Such features may provide clues for prediction of catastrophic rupture, like material failure and great earthquakes. Critical sensitivity may be the physical mechanism underlying a promising earthquake forecasting method, the load-unload response ratio (LURR).

O governo de Tibério e a difícil arte de suceder bons imperadores

Resumo: Neste artigo, propomo-nos a analisar o Governo do Imperador Romano Tibério, da forma como foi descrito por Dion Cássio Cocceiano na obra História Romana. Dion Cássio foi senador na passagem do II para o III século d.C. e sua narrativa nos chegou bastante fragmentada, reconstruída a partir dos excertos de Xifilino e Zonaras. A autoridade do Príncipe não era hereditária. Assim, tornavase necessário refazer os laços de patronato e amicitia no início de cada governo. E esta não era uma tarefa fácil, nem mesmo para Tibério que sucedeu o considerado bom Imperador Otávio Augusto.

Lo patronal, lo estatal y lo parental en la autobiografía de Ankhtifi de Mo'alla

Resumen: Entre las principales contribuciones académicas de Alicia Daneri, sobresale un estudio monográfico sobre el Primer Período Intermedio (Las Dinastías VII-VIII y el período heracleopolitano en Egipto, 1992). Allí, la Autobiografía de Ankhtifi de Mo‘alla es considerada en el marco de un análisis de la crisis política y socioeconómica que la historiografía ha señalado como el rasgo distintivo de la época. Posteriormente, Jan Assmann (The mind of Egypt, 2002 [1996]) ha abordado esa misma autobiografía, para destacar la emergencia de un nuevo tipo de actor social durante tal período, interpretado en clave de patronazgo. Ciertamente, aquella escena política en crisis facilita la percepción de una lógica social ligada a las prácticas patronales. Sin embargo, tal cosa no implica que otras grandes lógicas de organización social como aquellas que corresponden al ámbito estatal y al del parentesco no continúen gravitando con fuerza. El propósito de este artículo es el de reconsiderar la Autobiografía de Ankhtifi en un intento por vislumbrar el alcance específico de lo patronal, lo estatal y lo parental en el texto, lo que a su vez permite una reflexión más amplia sobre las características de la organización social y política en el valle del Nilo durante el Primer Período Intermedio.

The Newest Developments Of Load-Unload Response Ratio (Lurr)

The Load Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It is inspiring that its predictions using LURR have been improving. Since 2004 we have made a major breakthrough in intermediate-term earthquake forecasting of the strong earthquakes on the Chinese mainland using LURR and successfully predicted the Pakistan earthquake with magnitude M 7.6 on October 8, 2005. The causes for improving the prediction in terms of LURR have been discussed in the present paper.

La aristocracia de Castilla y sus abogados celestiales

Resumen: Este trabajo se ocupa de la relación entre la aristocracia de Castilla y los santos, como protectores en vida y, sobre todo, en el momento de la muerte. A partir de las cláusulas testamentarios y de las recomendaciones recogidas en los tratados del género Ars moriendi, señala las diferencias entre los vínculos que mantienen con el mundo celestial las élites de poder y el resto de la sociedad. Analiza, igualmente, los criterios para la elección de determinados santos como intercesores. Estos se basan en la primacía otorgada al entorno de Cristo, en la petición de auxilio a los bienaventurados que ayudan a los que van a dejar este mundo a conseguir la salvación del alma, y también a los defensores del grupo caballeresco y los titulares de iglesias y monasterios vinculados al señor.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

PICES Press, Vol. 10, No. 1, January 2002

Cover [pdf, 0.2 Mb] The state of PICES Science - 2001 [pp. 1-2] [pdf, 0.2 Mb] Reception remarks at PICES X [pp. 3-4] [pdf, 0.3 Mb] The state of the western North Pacific in the first half of 2001 [pp. 5-7] [pdf, 0.8 Mb] The status of the Bering Sea: January - August 2001 [pp. 8-9] [pdf, 0.4 Mb] The state of the eastern Norht Pacific since spring 2001[pp. 10-11] [pdf, 0.3 Mb] 2001 SEEDS experiment in the western Norht Pacific [pp. 12-13] [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Plans for the Canadian SOLAS Iron Enrichment Experiment [pp. 14-15] [pdf,. 0.4 Mb] Photo highlights of the PICES Tenth Annual Meeting [pp. 16-17] [pdf,. 0.3 Mb] NEAR-GOOS 2001 Ocean Environment Forecasting Workshop [pp. 18-19] [pdf, 0.6 Mb] IRI/IPRC Pacific Climate-Fisheries Workshop [pp. 20-21] [pdf, 0.2 Mb] PICES North Pacific Ecosystem Status Report [p. 21] [pdf,. 0.2 Mb] U.S. GLOBEC Northeast Pacific Ocean Program [pp. 22-26] [pdf, 0.5 Mb] New PICES Committee and Program Chairmen biographies [pp. 27-29] [pdf,. 0.4 Mb] Upcoming PICES publications and meetings [p. 30] [pdf,. 0.2 Mb] North Pacific Transitional Areas Symposium [p. 31] [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Gijon Symposium and other PICES announcements [p. 32] [pdf, 0.4 Mb]

室内泄漏燃气浓度分布的一个量级估算方法

在对室内液化石油气泄漏流动过程进行量级估算分析的基础上,提出了一种预测室内泄漏液化石油气浓度分布的简化方法.并结合一次居民室内液化气爆炸事故,讨论了此方法在实际应用中的简易可行性.

Frentes parlamentares : o caso da frente parlamentar de apoio às santas casas de misericórdia, hospitais e entidades filantrópicas na área de saúde

Objetiva analisar o trabalho da Frente Parlamentar de apoio às Santas Casas de Misericórdia, Hospitais e Entidades Filantrópicas na área de saúde, durante a 1ª Sessão Ordinária da 54ª Legislatura. A Instituição Legislativa, por força regimental, pauta seus trabalhos no poder decisório dos dirigentes da Mesa e das Lideranças Partidárias restringindo estratégias individuais. Dessa forma como se dão a criação de espaços para constituição e atuação das Frentes? A saúde como um dos principais fundamentos para o exercício de uma cidadania plena justificou a busca e aferição das informações. A construção da pesquisa se deu através do levantamento de dados documentais, eventos públicos e entrevistas com parlamentares. Pesquisou-se a gradual abrangência da assistência médica, o papel das instituições filantrópicas e da legislação que as ampara. Para contextualizar o modo de atuação da Frente, elaborou-se revisão de literaturas clássicas e contemporâneas abordando democracia e representação política, com enfoque em estudos atuais que demonstram que os parlamentares são orientados pela obediência partidária, previsibilidade nas votações, em oposição a teorias que classificam de prevalência da indisciplina partidária, patronagem e fisiologismo os fatores norteadores dos legisladores. Em detrimento da escassez de literatura, pode-se levantar dados históricos da formação no parlamento de colegiados nos moldes das Frentes - principalmente no período democrático de 1945/1964, e nos dias atuais retroagiu-se à 52ª Legislatura o acesso a dados eletrônicos.

Demonstrativo das despesas obrigatórias de caráter continuado : análise e evolução histórica, avaliação e identificação das variáveis que o determinam para proposição de um novo modelo

Analisa os mecanismos referentes ao controle das despesas obrigatórias de caráter continuado: o mecanismo de compensação, que tem suas origens no denominado "pay-as-you-go" implantado com o "Budget Enforcement Act" norte-americano, e o demonstrativo de margem de expansão. A análise da evolução histórica dessa categoria de despesas para a União evidencia que os mecanismos de compensação utilizados não permitiram o controle efetivo do aumento dessas despesas, inviabilizando o direcionamento de recursos para ações que impliquem garantia de desenvolvimento sustentável. A discussão sobre os conceitos de despesas obrigatórias de caráter continuado, dos mecanismos de compensação e dos objetivos da apresentação de um demonstrativo de estimativa de margem de expansão indica a necessidade de uma reavaliação e aprofundamento, baseados nos objetivos originais da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal, a fim de se ampliar a eficácia de tais mecanismos. Por fim, o trabalho propõe um novo modelo para a apresentação do demonstrativo de estimativa de margem de expansão de despesas obrigatórias de caráter continuado, que possibilite a utilização de uma terminologia adequada, a identificação de fontes e valores dos parâmetros empregados na previsão de receitas e despesas e a avaliação comparativa entre os valores estimados e aqueles realmente executados nos dois exercícios anteriores.

Tracking the evolution of waste recycling research using overlay maps of science

Tracking the evolution of research in waste recycling science (WRS) can be valuable for environmental agencies, as well as for recycling businesses. Maps of science are visual, easily readable representations of the cognitive structure of a branch of science, a particular area of research or the global spectrum of scientific production. They are generally built upon evidence collected from reliable sources of information, such as patent and scientific publication databases. This study uses the methodology developed by Rafols et al. (2010) to make a “double overlay map” of WRS upon a basemap reflecting the cognitive structure of all journal-published science, for the years 2005 and 2010. The analysis has taken into account the cognitive areas where WRS articles are published and the areas from where it takes its intellectual nourishing, paying special attention to the growing trends of the key areas. Interpretation of results lead to the conclusion that extraction of energy from waste will probably be an important research topic in the future, along with developments in general chemistry and chemical engineering oriented to the recovery of valuable materials from waste. Agricultural and material sciences, together with the combined economics, politics and geography field, are areas with which WRS shows a relevant and ever increasing cognitive relationship.

Data analysis advances in marine science for fisheries management : supervised classification application

169 p. : il. col.

PICES Press, Vol. 17, No. 2, July 2009

Major Outcomes from the 2009 PICES Annual Meeting: A Note from the Chairman (pdf, 0.1 Mb) The FUTURE is Here (pdf, 0.1 Mb) PICES Harmful Algal Bloom International Seafood Safety Project (pdf, 0.3 Mb) PICES at the 2009 GLOBEC Open Science Meeting (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Modeling Ecosystems and Ocean Processes Workshop (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Krill Biology and Ecology Workshop (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Polar and Sub-Polar Marine Ecosystems Workshop (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Biogeochemistry of the Oceans in a Changing Climate Workshop (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Continuous Plankton Recorder Surveys of the Global Oceans (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Plankton Phenology Workshop (pdf, 0.2 Mb) Workshop on “Climate Impact on Ecosystem Dynamics of Marginal Seas” (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Erratum (pdf, 0.4 Mb) The State of the Western North Pacific in the Second Half of 2008 (pdf, 0.2 Mb) State of the Northeast Pacific into early 2009 (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Current Status of the Bering Sea Ecosystem (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 2009 Salmon Forecasting Forum (pdf, 0.3 Mb) The Third Argo Science Workshop: “The Future of Argo” (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 2009 ESSAS Annual Science Meeting (pdf, 0.1 Mb) A Visit Fit for an Emperor and Empress of Japan (pdf, 0.9 Mb)