Falling Out of the Sky

“Falling Out of the Sky” is a collection of poems, both formal and free verse, that explores an intimate familial landscape. In particular, these poems raise the question of what it means to be human through examinations of family mythology and its changes as bodies and memories become unreliable with time.

Which way out of poverty? the human capital versus human capabilities approaches

La pobreza es un problema mundial que afecta a personas de diferentes maneras. El propósito de este artículo es explorar dos teorías principales que abordan la pobreza y la posibilidad de su superación, que son los enfoques de capital humano y de capacidades humanas. El enfoque del capital humano se centra exclusivamente en la faceta económica de la pobreza; en esta perspectiva, la pobreza se define como la falta de dinero y puede abordarse mediante el aumento de los ingresos financieros de las personas que viven en la pobreza. El enfoque de las capacidades humanas ve la pobreza como un problema multidimensional que va más allá de la economía para áreas como la salud, la educación y la libertad. Este enfoque se orienta hacia el cambio social y ayudar a las personas en situación de pobreza para descubrir y desarrollar su potencial. El autor considera que las capacidades humanas abarcan con mayor precisión el alcance de la pobreza y las personas afectadas por el mismo, aunque debido a su amplia gama ha sido difícil diseñar e implementar políticas eficaces que aborden todas las facetas de la pobreza.

Calculation of sample size for stroke trials assessing functional outcome: comparison of binary and ordinal approaches

Background Many acute stroke trials have given neutral results. Sub-optimal statistical analyses may be failing to detect efficacy. Methods which take account of the ordinal nature of functional outcome data are more efficient. We compare sample size calculations for dichotomous and ordinal outcomes for use in stroke trials. Methods Data from stroke trials studying the effects of interventions known to positively or negatively alter functional outcome – Rankin Scale and Barthel Index – were assessed. Sample size was calculated using comparisons of proportions, means, medians (according to Payne), and ordinal data (according to Whitehead). The sample sizes gained from each method were compared using Friedman 2 way ANOVA. Results Fifty-five comparisons (54 173 patients) of active vs. control treatment were assessed. Estimated sample sizes differed significantly depending on the method of calculation (Po00001). The ordering of the methods showed that the ordinal method of Whitehead and comparison of means produced significantly lower sample sizes than the other methods. The ordinal data method on average reduced sample size by 28% (inter-quartile range 14–53%) compared with the comparison of proportions; however, a 22% increase in sample size was seen with the ordinal method for trials assessing thrombolysis. The comparison of medians method of Payne gave the largest sample sizes. Conclusions Choosing an ordinal rather than binary method of analysis allows most trials to be, on average, smaller by approximately 28% for a given statistical power. Smaller trial sample sizes may help by reducing time to completion, complexity, and financial expense. However, ordinal methods may not be optimal for interventions which both improve functional outcome

SEMIPARAMETRIC METHODS IN THE ESTIMATION OF TAIL PROBABILITIES AND EXTREME QUANTILES

In quantitative risk analysis, the problem of estimating small threshold exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles arise ubiquitously in bio-surveillance, economics, natural disaster insurance actuary, quality control schemes, etc. A useful way to make an assessment of extreme events is to estimate the probabilities of exceeding large threshold values and extreme quantiles judged by interested authorities. Such information regarding extremes serves as essential guidance to interested authorities in decision making processes. However, in such a context, data are usually skewed in nature, and the rarity of exceedance of large threshold implies large fluctuations in the distribution's upper tail, precisely where the accuracy is desired mostly. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a branch of statistics that characterizes the behavior of upper or lower tails of probability distributions. However, existing methods in EVT for the estimation of small threshold exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles often lead to poor predictive performance in cases where the underlying sample is not large enough or does not contain values in the distribution's tail. In this dissertation, we shall be concerned with an out of sample semiparametric (SP) method for the estimation of small threshold probabilities and extreme quantiles. The proposed SP method for interval estimation calls for the fusion or integration of a given data sample with external computer generated independent samples. Since more data are used, real as well as artificial, under certain conditions the method produces relatively short yet reliable confidence intervals for small exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles.

Rare sex or out of reach equilibrium? The dynamics of F-IS in partially clonal organisms

Background: Partially clonal organisms are very common in nature, yet the influence of partial asexuality on the temporal dynamics of genetic diversity remains poorly understood. Mathematical models accounting for clonality predict deviations only for extremely rare sex and only towards mean inbreeding coefficient (F-IS) over bar < 0. Yet in partially clonal species, both F-IS < 0 and F-IS > 0 are frequently observed also in populations where there is evidence for a significant amount of sexual reproduction. Here, we studied the joint effects of partial clonality, mutation and genetic drift with a state-and-time discrete Markov chain model to describe the dynamics of F-IS over time under increasing rates of clonality. Results: Results of the mathematical model and simulations show that partial clonality slows down the asymptotic convergence to F-IS = 0. Thus, although clonality alone does not lead to departures from Hardy-Weinberg expectations once reached the final equilibrium state, both negative and positive F-IS values can arise transiently even at intermediate rates of clonality. More importantly, such "transient" departures from Hardy Weinberg proportions may last long as clonality tunes up the temporal variation of F-IS and reduces its rate of change over time, leading to a hyperbolic increase of the maximal time needed to reach the final mean (F-IS,F-infinity) over bar value expected at equilibrium. Conclusion: Our results argue for a dynamical interpretation of F-IS in clonal populations. Negative values cannot be interpreted as unequivocal evidence for extremely scarce sex but also as intermediate rates of clonality in finite populations. Complementary observations (e.g. frequency distribution of multiloci genotypes, population history) or time series data may help to discriminate between different possible conclusions on the extent of clonality when mean (F-IS) over bar values deviating from zero and/or a large variation of F-IS over loci are observed.

Keeping the Germans out of the straits: The five ottoman dreadnought thesis reconsidered

This article contests Sean McMeekin’s claims concerning Russian culpability for the First World War. McMeekin maintains that Ottoman rearmament, particularly the purchase of several battleships released onto the global arms market by South American states, threatened to create a situation where the Russian Black Sea Fleet would be outclassed by its Ottoman opposite number. Rather than waiting for this to happen, the tsarist regime chose to go to war. Yet, contrary to McMeekin’s claims, the Ottoman naval expansion never assumed threatening dimensions because the Porte was unable to purchase battleships from Chile or Argentina. As a result, it provided no incentive for Russia to go to war in 1914.

Risk perception and correlates of alcohol use among out-of-school youth in motor parks in Lagos State, Nigeria

Background and Aim: The prevalence of alcohol use has increased globally. Out-of-school youth are a vulnerable group who might have missed opportunities for learning healthy behaviours in a formal school environment. The purpose of this study was to determine the risk perception, pattern of use, and correlates of alcohol use among out-of-school youth in Lagos, Nigeria. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 380 out-of-school youth in motor parks in Lagos State, Nigeria, using interviewer administered questionnaires. Results: The lifetime prevalence of alcohol use was 61.1%, while 55.5% were current drinkers. Beer (57.3%) was the most consumed type of alcohol, followed by distilled spirits (29.8%). Using the CAGE scoring system, more than half (57.8%) of the current drinkers had a drinking problem. Almost three quarters (70.1%) had experienced at least one episode of alcohol intoxication within the past month. A considerable number of current drinkers (63.5%) desired to reduce their alcohol intake or stop drinking, while 45.5% had made unsuccessful attempts to do so within the past year. Only 28.9% had received assistance to quit or reduce their drinking and of these less than half (39.3%) received assistance from a professional or healthcare worker. Males were more likely to be current drinkers and to have experienced episodes of alcohol intoxication. Parental and peer drinking were associated with alcohol use but not with intoxication. Conclusions: It is important to design specific programmes to reduce alcohol use among out-of-school youth in these settings.

The effect of sample and sample matrix on DNA processing: Mechanisms for the detection and management of inhibition in forensic samples

The presence of inhibitory substances in biological forensic samples has, and continues to affect the quality of the data generated following DNA typing processes. Although the chemistries used during the procedures have been enhanced to mitigate the effects of these deleterious compounds, some challenges remain. Inhibitors can be components of the samples, the substrate where samples were deposited or chemical(s) associated to the DNA purification step. Therefore, a thorough understanding of the extraction processes and their ability to handle the various types of inhibitory substances can help define the best analytical processing for any given sample. A series of experiments were conducted to establish the inhibition tolerance of quantification and amplification kits using common inhibitory substances in order to determine if current laboratory practices are optimal for identifying potential problems associated with inhibition. DART mass spectrometry was used to determine the amount of inhibitor carryover after sample purification, its correlation to the initial inhibitor input in the sample and the overall effect in the results. Finally, a novel alternative at gathering investigative leads from samples that would otherwise be ineffective for DNA typing due to the large amounts of inhibitory substances and/or environmental degradation was tested. This included generating data associated with microbial peak signatures to identify locations of clandestine human graves. Results demonstrate that the current methods for assessing inhibition are not necessarily accurate, as samples that appear inhibited in the quantification process can yield full DNA profiles, while those that do not indicate inhibition may suffer from lowered amplification efficiency or PCR artifacts. The extraction methods tested were able to remove >90% of the inhibitors from all samples with the exception of phenol, which was present in variable amounts whenever the organic extraction approach was utilized. Although the results attained suggested that most inhibitors produce minimal effect on downstream applications, analysts should practice caution when selecting the best extraction method for particular samples, as casework DNA samples are often present in small quantities and can contain an overwhelming amount of inhibitory substances.^

Diageo's 'Stop Out of Control Drinking' campaign in Ireland: an analysis

Background: It has been argued that the alcohol industry uses corporate social responsibility activities to influence policy and undermine public health, and that every opportunity should be taken to scrutinise such activities. This study analyses a controversial Diageo-funded ‘responsible drinking’ campaign (“Stop out of Control Drinking”, or SOOCD) in Ireland. The study aims to identify how the campaign and its advisory board members frame and define (i) alcohol-related harms, and their causes, and (ii) possible solutions. Methods: Documentary analysis of SOOCD campaign material. This includes newspaper articles (n = 9), media interviews (n = 11), Facebook posts (n = 92), and Tweets (n = 340) produced by the campaign and by board members. All material was coded inductively, and a thematic analysis undertaken, with codes aggregated into sub-themes. Results: The SOOCD campaign utilises vague or self-defined concepts of ‘out of control’ and ‘moderate’ drinking, tending to present alcohol problems as behavioural rather than health issues. These are also unquantified with respect to actual drinking levels. It emphasises alcohol-related antisocial behaviour among young people, particularly young women. In discussing solutions to alcohol-related problems, it focuses on public opinion rather than on scientific evidence, and on educational approaches and information provision, misrepresenting these as effective. “Moderate drinking” is presented as a behavioural issue (“negative drinking behaviours”), rather than as a health issue. Conclusions: The ‘Stop Out of Control Drinking’ campaign frames alcohol problems and solutions in ways unfavourable to public health, and closely reflects other Diageo Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) activity, as well as alcohol and tobacco industry strategies more generally. This framing, and in particular the framing of alcohol harms as a behavioural issue, with the implication that consumption should be guided only by self-defined limits, may not have been recognised by all board members. It suggests a need for awareness-raising efforts among the public, third sector and policymakers about alcohol industry strategies

Efficacy and safety of out-of-hospital intravenous metoprolol administration in anterior ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction: insights from the METOCARD-CNIC trial

We seek to examine the efficacy and safety of prereperfusion emergency medical services (EMS)–administered intravenous metoprolol in anterior ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients undergoing eventual primary angioplasty. This is a prespecified subgroup analysis of the Effect of Metoprolol in Cardioprotection During an Acute Myocardial Infarction trial population, who all eventually received oral metoprolol within 12 to 24 hours. We studied patients receiving intravenous metoprolol by EMS and compared them with others treated by EMS but not receiving intravenous metoprolol. Outcomes included infarct size and left ventricular ejection fraction on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging at 1 week, and safety by measuring the incidence of the predefined combined endpoint (composite of death, malignant ventricular arrhythmias, advanced atrioventricular block, cardiogenic shock, or reinfarction) within the first 24 hours. From the total population of the trial (N=270), 147 patients (54%) were recruited during out-of-hospital assistance and transferred to the primary angioplasty center (74 intravenous metoprolol and 73 controls). Infarct size was smaller in patients receiving intravenous metoprolol compared with controls (23.4 [SD 15.0] versus 34.0 [SD 23.7] g; adjusted difference –11.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] –18.6 to –4.3). Left ventricular ejection fraction was higher in the intravenous metoprolol group (48.1% [SD 8.4%] versus 43.1% [SD 10.2%]; adjusted difference 5.0; 95% CI 1.6 to 8.4). Metoprolol administration did not increase the incidence of the prespecified safety combined endpoint: 6.8% versus 17.8% in controls (risk difference –11.1; 95% CI –21.5 to –0.6). Out-of-hospital administration of intravenous metoprolol by EMS within 4.5 hours of symptom onset in our subjects reduced infarct size and improved left ventricular ejection fraction with no excess of adverse events during the first 24 hours.

Chemical characteristics of the clusters and production of 'BRS Clara' grapevine under protected cultivation during out of season crop.

2011

Yield-factor volatility models

The term structure of interest rates is often summarized using a handful of yield factors that capture shifts in the shape of the yield curve. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model for volatility dynamics in the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve that simultaneously includes level and GARCH effects along with regime shifts. We show that the level of the short rate is useful in modeling the volatility of the three yield factors and that there are significant GARCH effects present even after including a level effect. Further, we find that allowing for regime shifts in the factor volatilities dramatically improves the model’s fit and strengthens the level effect. We also show that a regime-switching model with level and GARCH effects provides the best out-of-sample forecasting performance of yield volatility. We argue that the auxiliary models often used to estimate term structure models with simulation-based estimation techniques should be consistent with the main features of the yield curve that are identified by our model.

Are we there yet? Australian road safety targets and road traffic crash fatalities

Background Road safety targets are widely used and provide a basis for evaluating progress in road safety outcomes against a quantified goal. In Australia, a reduction in fatalities from road traffic crashes (RTCs) is a public policy objective: a national target of no more than 5.6 fatalities per 100,000 population by 2010 was set in 2001. The purpose of this paper is to examine the progress Australia and its states and territories have made in reducing RTC fatalities, and to estimate when the 2010 target may be reached by the jurisdictions. Methods Following a descriptive analysis, univariate time-series models estimate past trends in fatality rates over recent decades. Data for differing time periods are analysed and different trend specifications estimated. Preferred models were selected on the basis of statistical criteria and the period covered by the data. The results of preferred regressions are used to determine out-of-sample forecasts of when the national target may be attained by the jurisdictions. Though there are limitations with the time series approach used, inadequate data precluded the estimation of a full causal/structural model. Results Statistically significant reductions in fatality rates since 1971 were found for all jurisdictions with the national rate decreasing on average, 3% per year since 1992. However the gains have varied across time and space, with percent changes in fatality rates ranging from an 8% increase in New South Wales 1972-1981 to a 46% decrease in Queensland 1982-1991. Based on an estimate of past trends, it is possible that the target set for 2010 may not be reached nationally, until 2016. Unsurprisingly, the analysis indicated a range of outcomes for the respective state/territory jurisdictions though these results should be interpreted with caution due to different assumptions and length of data. Conclusions Results indicate that while Australia has been successful over recent decades in reducing RTC mortality, an important gap between aspirations and achievements remains. Moreover, unless there are fairly radical ("trend-breaking") changes in the factors that affect the incidence of RTC fatalities, deaths from RTCs are likely to remain above the national target in some areas of Australia, for years to come.